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January/February Winter Storm Threat Tracker


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19 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

Unsurprisingly the eps is losing the possible southern storm next week. Still some members getting it done but not as many as previous runs. There is a signal for another 1 or 2 light events after the arctic front to keep things mildly interesting.

Yeah, i think we'll score at least one more light event if not bigger by next Sunday. Before things relax for a bit. 

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3 minutes ago, peribonca said:

18z Nam brings the coastal storm pretty far West now and even gets snow into the tide water. I know it won't impact us but interesting trend for a storm that was modeled east of Bermuda

Definitely an interesting development. Don't know if/how it will affect the Tuesday deal. Would think if enough energy is left it could enhance coastal development on Tuesday. But i really don't know. Interested to see what the RGEM does now. It's been the furthest west of all guidance as the storm forms. Hasn't gotten into full range yet though.  

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Just now, MD Snow said:

Definitely an interesting development. Don't know if/how it will affect the Tuesday deal. Would think if enough energy is left it could enhance coastal development on Tuesday. But i really don't know. Interested to see what the RGEM does now. It's been the furthest west of all guidance as the storm forms. Hasn't gotten into full range yet though.  

If i lived on the Eastern Shore i would definitely keep an eye on this one

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1 minute ago, MD Snow said:

Definitely an interesting development. Don't know if/how it will affect the Tuesday deal. Would think if enough energy is left it could enhance coastal development on Tuesday. But i really don't know. Interested to see what the RGEM does now. It's been the furthest west of all guidance as the storm forms. Hasn't gotten into full range yet though.  

I would think the closer it is It would rob the moisture from the front.  My guess

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35 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

Unsurprisingly the eps is losing the possible southern storm next week. Still some members getting it done but not as many as previous runs. There is a signal for another 1 or 2 light events after the arctic front to keep things mildly interesting.

Darn...Well, hopefully we can have another day 7 event to track by midweek (unless this one can be ressurected)

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3 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

Darn...Well, hopefully we can have another day 7 event to track by midweek (unless this one can be ressurected)

At least we can’t complain about the pace of tracking.  Who needs multiple snow events to watch and stay up late for model runs?  I’ve had more time to pursue other interests like excessive drinking 

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1 hour ago, Bob Chill said:

18z gefs trying to resurrect the southern low next weekend

sQSRN6y.png

6 out of 20 is better than 0 out of 20. NExt week is an eternity away......there was probably a reason while all models showed something big 10 days out at one point

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2 hours ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

CRAS is more Norther and Wester with the low Monday. Ignore the thermals....they are really the only thing this model tends to have challenges with. Probably a MECS with the thermal bias adjustments: 

cras45na_slp_066l.gif

I never ignore the thermals.  Always in play here. 

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