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January/February Winter Storm Threat Tracker

Ji

By Ji,
in Mid Atlantic

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showmethesnow

showmethesnow

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Looking over the 00z and the 06z GEFS and I think it may have blinked first with its battle with the EPS. The last two runs have seen a somewhat deeper and sharper trough drop towards the gulf states on its initial plunge, more in line with the EPS though not quite there yet. We are also now seeing signs of a southern shortwave within that trough that was not present on past runs. Again this is more in line with the EPS. 

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CAPE

CAPE

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Good read from Mount Holly in their AFD, although the take away is they aren't overly impressed at this point.

As discussed yesterday, three perturbations will dictate the character of this storm as it affects the Mid-Atlantic. In general, the 00z model suite is in fair agreement with the overall evolution. The 00z GFS remains the fastest solution with all of these perturbations, though it has slowed toward consensus since this time yesterday. The largest difference remains its strong weakening trend with the southern-stream perturbation that rounds the longwave trough in the middle of the country Monday night. This is strongly tied to the quick nature of the northern-stream perturbation`s progression of the system toward the area. Meanwhile, the CMC looks much more like the general evolution of the GFS than it did yesterday, but noticeably slower. The ECMWF remains the strongest with the southern-stream perturbation and in developing a secondary low in the lee of the Appalachians Tuesday night before progressing it rapidly northeastward to the vicinity of coastal New England by 12z Wednesday. However, it has trended toward the weakening southern-stream perturbation that the GFS/CMC both suggest. With the general idea being operational model convergence with this system, a model blend was used for the forecast today with higher confidence than yesterday. On Tuesday, the surface low in the Great Lakes region will move into southeast Canada, with a cold front extending to the south. The front and proximity precipitation will likely approach the CWA by late in the day, but is unlikely to reach us before then. As such, lowered PoPs Monday night and Tuesday morning in an effort to narrow the timing. The primary window for precipitation looks to be Tuesday night as the front moves through the area. Notably, the timing and position of secondary low development along the front will be critical in determining strength and duration of precipitation. The stronger look of the ECMWF suggests slower timing and perhaps more prolonged precipitation along the axis of frontogenetical lift near and just west of the developing cyclone. Per trends, however, the strengthening phase most likely will occur in New England versus here, so precipitation should be fairly tame, especially since the strongest large-scale lift will be weakening (via a departing downstream jet streak) as the frontogenetical axis shifts across the region.

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showmethesnow

showmethesnow

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3 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said:

Good read from Mount Holly in their AFD, although the take away is they aren't overly impressed at this point.

As discussed yesterday, three perturbations will dictate the character of this storm as it affects the Mid-Atlantic. In general, the 00z model suite is in fair agreement with the overall evolution. The 00z GFS remains the fastest solution with all of these perturbations, though it has slowed toward consensus since this time yesterday. The largest difference remains its strong weakening trend with the southern-stream perturbation that rounds the longwave trough in the middle of the country Monday night. This is strongly tied to the quick nature of the northern-stream perturbation`s progression of the system toward the area. Meanwhile, the CMC looks much more like the general evolution of the GFS than it did yesterday, but noticeably slower. The ECMWF remains the strongest with the southern-stream perturbation and in developing a secondary low in the lee of the Appalachians Tuesday night before progressing it rapidly northeastward to the vicinity of coastal New England by 12z Wednesday. However, it has trended toward the weakening southern-stream perturbation that the GFS/CMC both suggest. With the general idea being operational model convergence with this system, a model blend was used for the forecast today with higher confidence than yesterday. On Tuesday, the surface low in the Great Lakes region will move into southeast Canada, with a cold front extending to the south. The front and proximity precipitation will likely approach the CWA by late in the day, but is unlikely to reach us before then. As such, lowered PoPs Monday night and Tuesday morning in an effort to narrow the timing. The primary window for precipitation looks to be Tuesday night as the front moves through the area. Notably, the timing and position of secondary low development along the front will be critical in determining strength and duration of precipitation. The stronger look of the ECMWF suggests slower timing and perhaps more prolonged precipitation along the axis of frontogenetical lift near and just west of the developing cyclone. Per trends, however, the strengthening phase most likely will occur in New England versus here, so precipitation should be fairly tame, especially since the strongest large-scale lift will be weakening (via a departing downstream jet streak) as the frontogenetical axis shifts across the region.

Interesting. Not sure what I am missing here but I really am not seeing that. Thought they may have been referencing the op runs where I was looking at the ensembles, but even the op run looks, at worst, roughly the same with that feature not to mention we are seeing an actual sharpening and deepening of the trough as well. And this goes for both comparing the 00Z to the 18z and 12z runs. Maybe I am having a senior moment. :whistle:

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CAPE

CAPE

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Just now, showmethesnow said:

Interesting. Not sure what I am missing here but I really am not seeing that. Thought they may have been referencing the op runs where I was looking at the ensembles, but even the op run looks, at worst, roughly the same with that feature not to mention we are seeing an actual sharpening and deepening of the trough as well. And this goes for both comparing the 00Z to the 18z and 12z runs. Maybe I am having a senior moment. :whistle:

Their discussion focuses on the op runs for sure. I haven't looked closely enough to comment on your possible senior moment. :P

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Ji

Ji

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2 hours ago, showmethesnow said:

Gentlemen, do you think you can keep all the Debbing on the long range in the thread devoted to it? Please? This after all is a thread devoted to specific threats one of which we are following now. 

i actually mentioned how bad the icon had look for this storm and then PSU chimed in with thoughts on the pattern and then i responded. So blame him:)

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Scraff

Scraff

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Posted
8 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Umm no...it’s not, but it is what it is.  Some of us can root for snow but deal with reality at the same time.  You wouldn’t happen to know a fellow by the name snowstorm4567753234555()?(;:;(66766 would you?  

My ignore list has grown exponentially over the last week or so. :lol:

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SnowGoose69

SnowGoose69

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, Bob Chill said:

Cmc has been scoring higher than the gfs. Also has a better solution than the gfs. Easy choice to hug until the euro comes out. 

gem_asnow_neus_19.png

The Canadian seems clueless down the MS Valley and southeast though.  It’s way more progressive with the boundary and area of snow across MS-AL-GA more than any other 12Z model and the EPS so it’s less likely to be right downstream  

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