January/February Winter Storm Threat Tracker

[Ji]

CMC has basically a squall line that moves through Tuesday evening. 

The progressive models are progressive tonight

[MD Snow]

Just now, Ji said:

3 minutes ago, MD Snow said:

CMC has basically a squall line that moves through Tuesday evening. 

The progressive models are progressive tonight

Fv3 looks better than old gfs. 

[psuhoffman]

2 minutes ago, MD Snow said:

Fv3 looks better than old gfs. 

Newer models usually look better than older ones. 

[peribonca]

Are the American models back to being"optimally" running now that the shutdown is over?

[MD Snow]

There’s a lot of pieces of energy flying around next week. Should be at least fun to see how it all plays out. We’ve got the frontal passage, a chance at a little follow up action and then something bigger over the weekend. Nothing’s set in stone. 

[eurojosh]

That's an odd extratropical cyclone hitting northern California next weekend on the GFS...

[SnowGoose69]

ICON and NAM basically look like the Euro with the two whole timing and amplification with the boundary as it crosses the TN Valley region.  The GFS and CMC are markedly more progressive 

[CaryWx]

3 minutes ago, peribonca said:

Are the American models back to being"optimally" running now that the shutdown is over?

Well the old GFS isn't showing a storm for next weekend so I can't say.

[SnowGolfBro]

This whole set up is kind of how we get a snowstorm. Arctic cold front with some snow. Followed by a few really cold days then as the cold relaxes we get a coastal. I approve this message.

[Bob Chill]

Icon is obviously a dream run but the eps did have enough coastal solutions to be interesting. If you just look at the low location plots on the eps it doesn't have a lot of coastal lows that get close nor does it have an obvious mslp panel but that's not the only way snow got into our region. Some solutions did have a southern slider but also a swath of overrunning streaming far NW of the low. I'll dig one up and post it for a visual. It's something worth discussing after the icon teased us.

Also, i saw the gfs h5 verification scores today. It's been really bad at 120h. Lowest scores and even below the cmc. Fv3 was only marginally better. Euro has been strong. I don't trust the old gfs right now. If it's not scoring well at 120h then anything after that is even worse. 

.

[Bob Chill]

Here's one of the eps solutions. Lowest pressure is only 1016mb and no defined slp center so it won't show up on mean or location panels. Some of the ones where a low tracked near florida had a swath of precip way far ne of the low center and into our yards. May have to do with a low north of the lakes creating weakness/return flow and precip streams out in front of the southern low. It's too far away to have a handle on specifics or have any idea if we get any snow out of it. Just something to keep an eye on. The biggest takeaway is the eps mslp and location plots don't tell the whole story. 

[LP08]

GEFS for the Tuesday Wednesday deal are uninspiring.  One manages to get the Sunday coastal here.

 

Ive noticed as well as @MD Snow that the closer the Sunday coastal comes, the less impact from the front, at least with the GEFS suite.

[Bob Chill]

One more visual... Nearly all of the qpf that falls between the 1st and 3rd is snow. Looks like about 1/3rd of the members get precip into our area. Some good hits in there too. The easiest way to track the ensemble trend is just look at the % of members getting precip here and see if its increasing or declining. 

[Bob Chill]

Euro still gets us all with 2-5". Still very close to something bigger. Slp forms off the coast and keeps the heavy precip offshore. Parts of interior NE get nuked pretty good. As is it's still a good event and I didn't see any red flags. 

[Maestrobjwa]

6 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

Euro still gets us all with 2-5". Still very close to something bigger. Slp forms off the coast and keeps the heavy precip offshore. Parts of interior NE get nuked pretty good. As is it's still a good event and I didn't see any red flags. 

Wow so the Euro is actually the most bullish model right now? Lol Interesting!

[Ji]

Icon...gfs is disaster. Its euro vs world

 

 

[psuhoffman]

3 minutes ago, Ji said:

Icon...nam....gfs is disaster. Its euro vs world

You forgot to mention it’s an older run (0z v 6z) of the euro vs the world. Don’t short change the severity of our crisis situation. But hey the day 6/7 threat is almost totally dead and then we go into a huge SE ridge and get more cutters according to all guidance so at least after this next fail we probably won’t need to waste much time on this for a while. 

[Ji]

You forgot to mention it’s an older run (0z v 6z) of the euro vs the world. Don’t short change the severity of our crisis situation. But hey the day 6/7 threat is almost totally dead and then we go into a huge SE ridge and get more cutters according to all guidance so at least after this next fail we probably won’t need to waste much time on this for a while. 

I'm sure the euro weeklies saw this. This is one of the worst winters I can remember. Its 01-02 to me

[PDIII]

1 hour ago, Ji said:

Icon...gfs is disaster. Its euro vs world

 

 

The GFS is showing more snow for the frontal passage than it has ever showed before.  It is really only 1-4 but it looks better than the previous runs.  Cmc is a big step back.

[PDIII]

4 hours ago, Bob Chill said:

Euro still gets us all with 2-5". Still very close to something bigger. Slp forms off the coast and keeps the heavy precip offshore. Parts of interior NE get nuked pretty good. As is it's still a good event and I didn't see any red flags. 

Snow with a this type of set up can be a lot of fun.  We could see a burst where we get 3 inches in an hour or two.  There will be a huge temp gradient... Should be like a strong raing shower.. but snow

 

[PDIII]

The wildcard is whether or not SLP develops along the front. If that happens and the change over occurs early enough we should see some upside with this. 

[Danajames]

2 hours ago, psuhoffman said:

You forgot to mention it’s an older run (0z v 6z) of the euro vs the world. Don’t short change the severity of our crisis situation. But hey the day 6/7 threat is almost totally dead and then we go into a huge SE ridge and get more cutters according to all guidance so at least after this next fail we probably won’t need to waste much time on this for a while. 

Wash, Rinse...Repeat.  Great, isn't it? 

[Danajames]

2 hours ago, Ji said:

I'm sure the euro weeklies saw this. This is one of the worst winters I can remember. Its 01-02 to me

We'll still get cold periods into April.  But as far as precipitation goes, the pattern isn't going anywhere anytime soon.   By the time it ends, we'll be ready for the onslaught of stalled out fronts.  Welcome to the new weather. 

[showmethesnow]

Looking over the latest EPS (00z) and I am encouraged by what I am seeing. After looking over the members we are seeing a tendency towards either slowing the energy/ana-front low on its trek northward or even redeveloping energy to the south on the quicker solutions with that initial feature. Quite a few of the solutions are now featuring a distinct low to our south. Even more promising is that many of the members are now focusing on seeing coastal development farther to the south then previous runs, from roughly OBX up to off the shores of MD/DEL vs. Del and north. What was interesting that despite the evolution within the trough draped down the east coast and the energy running through it many of the solutions inevitably still moved towards coastal development somewhere off the mid-Atlantic coast. Whether it was a distinct southern low moving into that region or a jump eastward of energy running through the trough or some other variation/evolution many still ended up with the coastal idea off our coast. At this point the members that favor a coastal are still featuring a somewhat weak low off our shores but I think that would be far from a given if we in fact do see a coastal. As I mentioned last night we will be seeing extremes during this period as the arctic front moves through and our weather is driven by extremes. The more extreme the contrasts the more extreme the possible resulting weather can be if triggered. And there will be plenty of energy rotating through the different levels of the atmosphere to possibly light the fuse. So don't be surprised if some future runs start popping bombing lows off our coast if the EPS continues its strong move toward a more southern coastal. But we are still talking 3 to 4 days away  with a very volatile setup so nothing is etched in stone at this point. The GEFS isn't really buying into the idea either so keep all this in mind.

Saw an increase on the EPS snowfall mean for the system on the 30th of roughly a half inch. This is at 10 to 1 so if we consider 15-1 or even 20-1 ratios as the Euro has been spitting out the DC/Balt corridor are looking at 3 to 4 inches. Though the ensemble members did pick up a little bit they are still not enthused with anything more then a 2-4, 3-6 type deal when considering ratios with only one member clocking in with 10-12 inches before considering ratios. 

 

 

 

[showmethesnow]

Gentlemen, do you think you can keep all the Debbing on the long range in the thread devoted to it? Please? This after all is a thread devoted to specific threats one of which we are following now. 

[aldie 22]

12 minutes ago, showmethesnow said:

Looking over the latest EPS (00z) and I am encouraged by what I am seeing. After looking over the members we are seeing a tendency towards either slowing the energy/ana-front low on its trek northward or even redeveloping energy to the south on the quicker solutions with that initial feature. Quite a few of the solutions are now featuring a distinct low to our south. Even more promising is that many of the members are now focusing on seeing coastal development farther to the south then previous runs, from roughly OBX up to off the shores of MD/DEL vs. Del and north. What was interesting that despite the evolution within the trough draped down the east coast and the energy running through it many of the solutions inevitably still moved towards coastal development somewhere off the mid-Atlantic coast. Whether it was a distinct southern low moving into that region or a jump eastward of energy running through the trough or some other variation/evolution many still ended up with the coastal idea off our coast. At this point the members that favor a coastal are still featuring a somewhat weak low off our shores but I think that would be far from a given if we in fact do see a coastal. As I mentioned last night we will be seeing extremes during this period as the arctic front moves through and our weather is driven by extremes. The more extreme the contrasts the more extreme the possible resulting weather can be if triggered. And there will be plenty of energy rotating through the different levels of the atmosphere to possibly light the fuse. So don't be surprised if some future runs start popping bombing lows off our coast if the EPS continues its strong move toward a more southern coastal. But we are still talking 3 to 4 days away  with a very volatile setup so nothing is etched in stone at this point. The GEFS isn't really buying into the idea either so keep all this in mind.

Saw an increase on the EPS snowfall mean for the system on the 30th of roughly a half inch. This is at 10 to 1 so if we consider 15-1 or even 20-1 ratios as the Euro has been spitting out the DC/Balt corridor are looking at 3 to 4 inches. Though the ensemble members did pick up a little bit they are still not enthused with anything more then a 2-4, 3-6 type deal when considering ratios with only one member clocking in with 10-12 inches before considering ratios. 

 

 

 

Right through Jis house...disaster 

[Wonderdog]

6 minutes ago, showmethesnow said:

Gentlemen, do you think you can keep all the Debbing on the long range in the thread devoted to it? Please? This after all is a thread devoted to specific threats one of which we are following now. 

Does it bother you that the EURO is on it's own for next week? Don't get me wrong,  I'm glad it's the EURO and not GFS but still. 

[SomeguyfromTakomaPark]

Not sure if I like the trends of the Euro at 500, vort doesn't look as potent or digging as far south.  I would think this argues for a more progressive solution but maybe someone more knowledgeable can chime in.

[showmethesnow]

3 minutes ago, Wonderdog said:

Does it bother you that the EURO is on it's own for next week? Don't get me wrong,  I'm glad it's the EURO and not GFS but still. 

Actually favor the Euro's depiction over the GFS. Better model to have on your side at this range. The solution it is moving towards is also one I have favored for a few days now. Think we do see some initial post frontal snow that could be somewhat dynamic in nature though I am not totally sold on the snow output at this time that some models are throwing out. I then think we transition over to coastal induced snows. Depending how far south and how explosive it ends up being will determine how big an impact we will see. There is potential here, it is just a matter if we can realize it down in our region.

[showmethesnow]

9 minutes ago, DCTeacherman said:

Not sure if I like the trends of the Euro at 500, vort doesn't look as potent or digging as far south.  I would think this argues for a more progressive solution but maybe someone more knowledgeable can chime in.

Could you throw up the mslps? Also note the interaction of the energy from the pv down to the southern shortwave in Georgia is weaker. Just looking at that gives me the impression that the EPS is continuing its theme of less interference from the GLs low with the southern energy. Hopefully this would allow the southern low to develop more which is what we want to see.