January/February Winter Storm Threat Tracker

[showmethesnow]

9 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

We have a close pass with the tpv and an arctic front going neutral and then negative. I can't think of a single time in the last 13 years that we've had a progression like this. Maybe Feb 14th 2015 but I don't remember the front curling and bowing out like this one.

Might end up a total snoozefest. No way to know yet. I don't think you can compare this progression to all arctic fronts. It's a razor edge but has potenial to surprise. I'll wait until that's off the table before cancelling the event. I encourage anyone with a wxbell sub to scroll through every single ens surface plot. It's really eye opening how interesting this event might be.

Really interesting setup that you don't see everyday. Don't think many realize how unique this potentially is. Could be exciting or as you said a snooze fest. Really no way to know at this point but it will be fun to track over the coming days.

[Danajames]

Here's my prediction- we'll get a period of light rain on Tuesday, it will transition to snow for a few hours before the Arctic air completely plows through and we'll get a dusting to maybe an inch if we're lucky.  Then it will be very cold for 3-4 days, temperatures will moderate and then yet another Great Lakes cutter pulling another 1-2" of rain up from the Gulf will saturate the Mid-Atlantic.  How's that?  It's so predictable, you can set your watch to it.  Ladies and Gentlemen......THE PATTERN FROM HELL. 

[SomeguyfromTakomaPark]

Just now, Danajames said:

Here's my prediction- we'll get a period of light rain on Tuesday, it will transition to snow for a few hours before the Arctic air completely plows through and we'll get a dusting to maybe an inch if we're lucky.  Then it will be very cold for 3-4 days, temperatures will moderate and then yet another Great Lakes cutter pulling another 1-2" of rain up from the Gulf will saturate the Mid-Atlantic.  How's that?  It's so predictable, you can set your watch to it.  Ladies and Gentlemen......THE PATTERN FROM HELL. 

Awful post, 0 analysis.  Maybe don’t post if you already think you know the outcome.

[clskinsfan]

53 minutes ago, Ji said:

56 minutes ago, clskinsfan said:

I disagree. The 1.3 inch event last week was gorgeous.

Um it fell on 7 inches of snow

Which made it even better. I dont understand how you all can come in here every day looking for snow events. And then bitch when the models show you the opportunity for one. This site is getting tedious as hell.

[psuhoffman]

People can like or not like what they want. Just don’t poo poo the event if someone is excited at 1-2”. Go post in the long range thread where there is legit crap to complain about or the panic room or banter.  

[Bob Chill]

7 minutes ago, DCTeacherman said:

Awful post, 0 analysis.  Maybe don’t post if you already think you know the outcome.

Yea, this is a good example of the fun factor being at an all time low. 

[87storms]

1 hour ago, Maestrobjwa said:

They're talking about me--initally, I said I wasn't that impressed and was kinda looking past it because it didn't seem like much. But I relent a bit on that...interesting dynamics.

per gfs, i'm not too thrilled about the temps leading into it, but i do like that the changeover appears to be occurring around sunset/evening, and there's enough energy lagging behind that could produce if temps crash as expected.  that said, there's been chatter about how much temps will crash given the lack of snow cover, so there's that part too.  who knows lol.

[87storms]

1-2" would be perfectly legit prior to an arctic airmass.  we need to pad the stats at this point, similar to what the wizards defense allows other teams to do.

[LP08]

45 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

We have a close pass with the tpv and an arctic front going neutral and then negative. I can't think of a single time in the last 13 years that we've had a progression like this. Maybe Feb 14th 2015 but I don't remember the front curling and bowing out like this one.

Might end up a total snoozefest. No way to know yet. I don't think you can compare this progression to all arctic fronts. It's a razor edge but has potenial to surprise. I'll wait until that's off the table before cancelling the event. I encourage anyone with a wxbell sub to scroll through every single ens surface plot. It's really eye opening how interesting this event might be.

I finally got a chance to go through them.  Some pretty crazy solutions in there.  This is just one of 10 or so that I like.  

[SomeguyfromTakomaPark]

2 minutes ago, LP08 said:

I finally got a chance to go through them.  Some pretty crazy solutions in there.  This is just one of 10 or so that I like.  

Raining in nyc/Boston and heavy snow in DC....very nice. When’s the last time we had a big snow that was rain further up the coast? Feb  2010?

[Danajames]

1 hour ago, DCTeacherman said:

Awful post, 0 analysis.  Maybe don’t post if you already think you know the outcome.

Can't you see the beauty of this pattern?  It doesn't require analysis.  It's the beast that can't be destroyed.  The dreamer in me is hoping that one day in the far, far future, weather will return to being "normal" again.  There will be no more relentless, stalled out fronts, cut-off lows, Appalachian cutters, 70+" of precipitation(mainly rain), etc... Like I said, it's become so predictable that it's almost comical.  

[SomeguyfromTakomaPark]

Just now, Danajames said:

Can't you see the beauty of this pattern?  It doesn't require analysis.  It's the beast that can't be destroyed.  The dreamer in me is hoping that one day in the far, far future, weather will return to being "normal" again.  There will be no more relentless, stalled out fronts, cut-off lows, Appalachian cutters, 70+" of precipitation(mainly rain), etc... Like I said, it's become so predictable that it's almost comical.  

Yeah this pattern has been truly awful, I’ve had 3 snow events in DC, I’m 2/3 of the way to climo,  it isn’t even February yet, and we’re tracking a light event for Tuesday/wednesday with potential upside.....just awful.  Did you just move here? Have you not been here for some of our shutout years?

[showmethesnow]

2 minutes ago, Danajames said:

Can't you see the beauty of this pattern?  It doesn't require analysis.  It's the beast that can't be destroyed.  The dreamer in me is hoping that one day in the far, far future, weather will return to being "normal" again.  There will be no more relentless, stalled out fronts, cut-off lows, Appalachian cutters, 70+" of precipitation(mainly rain), etc... Like I said, it's become so predictable that it's almost comical.  

Just curious. If it is so predictable why are you even following the models then? 

[LP08]

1 minute ago, DCTeacherman said:

Raining in nyc/Boston and heavy snow in DC....very nice. When’s the last time we had a big snow that was rain further up the coast? Feb  2010?

There are some wild solutions in there.  The consensus for sure is like the OP but I have a feeling one run in the next day or so will spit out something everyone would get excited about.

[Hyphnx]

1 minute ago, LP08 said:

There are some wild solutions in there.  The consensus for sure is like the OP but I have a feeling one run in the next day or so will spit out something everyone would get excited about.

Everyone!?!?

[PivotPoint]

1 hour ago, clskinsfan said:

I agree with you to an extent. This one is a little different because all of the models are showing some energy get held back and pass through in time for us to change over. If one was gonna work out this is the way it would.

 I would agree with you there. Definitely has been some amount of QPF on most all guidance. I guess I’m just pessimistic against anafronts lol

[LP08]

2 minutes ago, Hyphnx said:

Everyone!?!?

Central VA and south has lower odds but I still wouldn’t sleep on getting snow even down your way.  Just too many variables at this stage with multiple votes and interactions.

[Hyphnx]

Just now, LP08 said:

Central VA and south has lower odds but I still wouldn’t sleep on getting snow even down your way.  Just too many variables at this stage with multiple votes and interactions.

That's been the case since 12/9. Still fun as hell to track these storms.

[PivotPoint]

1 hour ago, Bob Chill said:

We have a close pass with the tpv and an arctic front going neutral and then negative. I can't think of a single time in the last 13 years that we've had a progression like this. Maybe Feb 14th 2015 but I don't remember the front curling and bowing out like this one.

Might end up a total snoozefest. No way to know yet. I don't think you can compare this progression to all arctic fronts. It's a razor edge but has potenial to surprise. I'll wait until that's off the table before cancelling the event. I encourage anyone with a wxbell sub to scroll through every single ens surface plot. It's really eye opening how interesting this event might be.

Ok, so maybe I’m not evaluating this properly here. You and @showmethesnow  seem interested so now my interest is peaked lol

Could either of you explain why this artic front is more unique and why there’s bigger potential then my untrained eye “isn’t” seeing. Thanks in advance 

[pasnownut]

14 minutes ago, PivotPoint said:

 I would agree with you there. Definitely has been some amount of QPF on most all guidance. I guess I’m just pessimistic against anafronts lol

Like Bob said, this one may be different, but even the best ones still are cartoppers IMO and not much more.  I'll surely take it, but given the option of the trailer deal, I'd rather that.  Much better upside.

[showmethesnow]

5 minutes ago, PivotPoint said:

Ok, so maybe I’m not evaluating this properly here. You and @showmethesnow  seem interested so now my interest is peaked lol

Could either of you explain why this artic front is more unique and why there’s bigger potential then my untrained eye “isn’t” seeing. Thanks in advance 

Actually was just heading to bed so i will make this brief. Look over the 500's and the extreme pressure anomalies that are showing and how far south they are reaching. This is because we are seeing a very deep drop of a fairly strong tpv into the CONUS. Then look at the temperature extremes showing between the pv cold and the warmth showing on the east coast. We don't often see these type of extremes. All of this is the equivalent of a loaded gun waiting for something to pull the trigger. Doesn't mean that trigger will be pulled but if it is it could get somewhat exciting. 

[T. August]

1 hour ago, WesternFringe said:

Not true.  12/9 storm brought 12 inches to me in Augusta County and I am not in the "extreme southern parts of this subforum".  1/12 was 5-6" here

Not to split hairs but you’re pretty far down/out there brother.

[WesternFringe]

9 minutes ago, T. August said:

Not to split hairs but you’re pretty far down/out there brother.

1. Richmond is way further south than I am

2. I am further east than most all of WV, which is in this forum

3. You are almost as far from DC as I am, and I am closer to NoVa than you are, which is a huge part of this forum

not to split hairs though...

[Bob Chill]

29 minutes ago, PivotPoint said:

Ok, so maybe I’m not evaluating this properly here. You and @showmethesnow  seem interested so now my interest is peaked lol

Could either of you explain why this artic front is more unique and why there’s bigger potential then my untrained eye “isn’t” seeing. Thanks in advance 

Fronts are usually positively tilted and only have lift for precip in a narrow band as the old airmass gets the boot and the new airmass advects in. This one is different because 1)it's tilted more neutral and then goes negative 2) an area of elongated low pressure develops along the "bow" 3) there is upper level support as it moves through.

The tpv is a very vigorous piece of upper level energy and it has "spokes" rotating around it. One of those spokes crosses with the front so it enhances lift/precip. Because of the alignment it's not moving very fast either. Most arctic fronts blast through at high speed. Because of the upper level rotation this front bows out in the middle and develops an area of elongated low pressure that has the *potential* to bomb out (to our north most likely) but our region is in a good spot to catch some of the action.

Again, it's an uncommon setup. The potential for rain in Boston and heavy snow arctic air moving in our region kinda sums it up. I think someone in upstate NY or Vermont could get nuked with 6-12" of snow in 6 hours. If we get into the action the snowfall could be intense for a short time. Cant rule out thunder and lightning either. Upper level support, neutral or neg tilt, and pretty big thermal gradient could be fun. Might be nothing but snowshowers. It's worth watching imho.

 

[mattie g]

6 hours ago, JMcCaughey42 said:

Huh?  When did I say cared if the rest of the MA gets snow?  I'm happy if they do, just pointing out that PA has been screwed just as much as NYC and Boston

And you’re doing so in the Mid-Atlantic forum. Don’t expect people to be sympathetic. Snow is life or death.

[Bob Chill]

One more thing... most 1-3/2-4 inch snows aren't "exciting" but really nice to watch. This go around could be 2" or maybe as much as 6" in a very short time. If my yard gets 2" of snow in 60 or 90 minutes it will kick ass imo. Kuchera on the euro is spitting out crazy ratios. Like 20:1 kind of stuff. That tells me that really cold midlevels are rushing in and there is instability because of upper level support. 

We could easily get whiffed. It's a tricky setup. But if somehow we maximize the conditions it would be an event nobody forgets. VDay 2015 is burned in my brain and that was only 2.5". The way it happened was pretty stunning. We have some ingredients to have a memorable event. 

[osfan24]

10 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

One more thing... most 1-3/2-4 inch snows aren't "exciting" but really nice to watch. This go around could be 2" or maybe as much as 6" in a very short time. If my yard gets 2" of snow in 60 or 90 minutes it will kick ass imo. Kuchera on the euro is spitting out crazy ratios. Like 20:1 kind of stuff. That tells me that really cold midlevels are rushing in and there is instability because of upper level support. 

We could easily get whiffed. It's a tricky setup. But if somehow we maximize the conditions it would be an event nobody forgets. VDay 2015 is burned in my brain and that was only 2.5". The way it happened was pretty stunning. We have some ingredients to have a memorable event. 

I agree with this. The last storm that gave some of us a foot and others not so much wasn't that memorable for me. I got like 8-10, but the heaviest snow hit very late at night when I was sleeping, then I had snizzle all day, and then finished up with some nice steady snow at night. It was honestly the most boring 8+ inch storm. If I'm going to get long duration, super light snow, it had better be cold powder and like teens and low to mid 20's. I'd much rather look forward to an event like this where crazy dynamic stuff can happen. Some of the arctic fronts we've had in recent years have been fun, and this has some extra dynamics in play. And the Euro has been rock steady of late about the potential for this event. Not sure why people are so down on it. 

[SomeguyfromTakomaPark]

Looking through the 18z EPS members very few solutions, just like 3 or 4, that totally skunk us (<0.25 QPF).  The vast majority give us 0.25+ with around 10 members bringing the 0.5 QPF over or very near DC.  

[Bob Chill]

13 minutes ago, DCTeacherman said:

Looking through the 18z EPS members very few solutions, just like 3 or 4, that totally skunk us (<0.25 QPF).  The vast majority give us 0.25+ with around 10 members bringing the 0.5 QPF over or very near DC.  

That's good to hear. Seeing so much consensus with the ensembles and the op holding run over run is encouraging. 12z eps had strong support for .2 - .4" qpf as snow. The mean qpf as snow was .2 and total mean qpf was around .35. The most interesting thing is the euro op had .3 qpf as snow but kuchera was 6". I've never seen ratios as high as this event. Could be a flag that kuchera is overdoing it or it could be a sign that the column is prime for high ratio snow. 

Here the 12z snow meteo. Loaded pretty good with 2-4" @ 10:1

[BristowWx]

28 minutes ago, DCTeacherman said:

Looking through the 18z EPS members very few solutions, just like 3 or 4, that totally skunk us (<0.25 QPF).  The vast majority give us 0.25+ with around 10 members bringing the 0.5 QPF over or very near DC.  

This is Tuesday night right?