Interstate Posted January 25, 2019 Share Posted January 25, 2019 12 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said: SnowS? Lol Only the one so far for this forum that you can call "big"! Nov 15th, Dec 9th and Jan 13th. They were all big events for some of region Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted January 25, 2019 Share Posted January 25, 2019 Going by the EPS means it looks as if it is starting to see more interaction with the SE coastal low and/or left behind energy from that low that was OTS on previous runs. As evidenced by more solutions with lows off the coast. eta: Also looks as if we see a very small adjustment eastward of the lows track as it runs through the region. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted January 25, 2019 Share Posted January 25, 2019 Just now, Interstate said: Nov 15th, Dec 9th and Jan 13th. They were all big events for some of region Yeah but Nov 15th wasn't that big (2-3 inches, perhaps), and the 9th was a total whiff except for the extreme southern parts of this subforum! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted January 25, 2019 Share Posted January 25, 2019 16 minutes ago, showmethesnow said: I wouldn't dismiss either storm. Both are occurring at prime times for big storms. One as the pv is dropping down and the other as it is withdrawing northward through the 50/50 region. Oh yeah?...I mean, why would the mid-week deal deliver more than a couple inches at best? (I mean, I thoughts folks in here have been pretty down on it for the most part?) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted January 25, 2019 Share Posted January 25, 2019 EPS snowfall for individual members are pretty pedestrian. No big hits but really no total shut outs either. Looks as if roughly a handful or so don't get at least an inch into at least a portion of the DC/Balt corridor. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted January 25, 2019 Share Posted January 25, 2019 4 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said: Yeah but Nov 15th wasn't that big (2-3 inches, perhaps), and the 9th was a total whiff except for the extreme southern parts of this subforum! I got 4.5 inches from Nov 15th in Central Baltimore County. Dec 9th affect more than just the extreme southern parts. It was just south of Washington DC. Like I said... Territory Wars Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 25, 2019 Share Posted January 25, 2019 1 minute ago, showmethesnow said: EPS snowfall for individual members are pretty pedestrian. No big hits but really no total shut outs either. Looks as if roughly a handful or so don't get at least an inch into at least a portion of the DC/Balt corridor. Is this for the midweek deal or the whole 15 days? What's the Feb 2/3 window look like? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted January 25, 2019 Share Posted January 25, 2019 Mid week. After the Jan 30th time frame through the 5th we see a pickup of roughly an inch to an inch and a half. No major uptick centered around the 3 rd though. EPS is only out to the 5th at this time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
poolz1 Posted January 25, 2019 Share Posted January 25, 2019 We are in that window where you would expect the ens to pretty much follow the op. Such a precarious setup....still, it's good to see no red flags on the eps. (for tue/wed) if the ind members had a Kuchera option most would look like the op. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 25, 2019 Share Posted January 25, 2019 1 minute ago, showmethesnow said: Mid week. After the Jan 30th time frame through the 5th we see a pickup of roughly an inch to an inch and a half. No major uptick centered around the 3 rd though. EPS is only out to the 5th at this time. Ok, thanks. I think people should keep their expectations in the dusting-2" range in all honesty. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 25, 2019 Share Posted January 25, 2019 46 minutes ago, frd said: I agree, that period here still needs to be watched. Meanwhile, Alabama and Miss. get 3 to 6 inches of snow if the Euro is right next Weds. and Thursday, crazy. Epic pattern verifying Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ryanconway63 Posted January 25, 2019 Share Posted January 25, 2019 Are there any big hits on the EPS for the southeast. Just curious. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted January 25, 2019 Share Posted January 25, 2019 Just now, Ralph Wiggum said: Epic pattern verifying For Alabama, yes :-) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 25, 2019 Share Posted January 25, 2019 13 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said: Oh yeah?...I mean, why would the mid-week deal deliver more than a couple inches at best? (I mean, I thoughts folks in here have been pretty down on it for the most part?) Looking beyond any snow event in these parts is a huge recipe for disappointment. You never know when the last snow of the season is going to happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted January 25, 2019 Share Posted January 25, 2019 1 minute ago, WxUSAF said: Ok, thanks. I think people should keep their expectations in the dusting-2" range in all honesty. Really have no expectations at this point. Think the whole setup for around the 30th is still very much up in the air. Not even worth considering beyond that point until that storm gets resolved. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 25, 2019 Share Posted January 25, 2019 Looks like about a dozen eps members bring the late week coastal up into these parts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 25, 2019 Share Posted January 25, 2019 12 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Looks like about a dozen eps members bring the late week coastal up into these parts. Rain or snow? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted January 25, 2019 Share Posted January 25, 2019 25 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Looking beyond any snow event in these parts is a huge recipe for disappointment. You never know when the last snow of the season is going to happen. Yeah but when you're looking at a couple inches, though...even if nothing else were to work out, what do I lose by looking past it (seeing as it wouldn't be much excitement unless it trends better) Maybe for you and others that got 10-12" and don't need much more to hit climo...it's a stats padder but 0-2 inches is nothing, even if next weekend doesn't work (but I'm hoping it turns into something.) Now get the mid-week deal up to 5 inches or more and I'll watch, lol But otherwise, I wouldn't see it worth getting excited about even if it were the last flakes we saw...just a couple inches, lol But maybe I've been too ungrateful...I don't know. I just want hit the 20" mark for climo! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 25, 2019 Share Posted January 25, 2019 2 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said: Yeah but when you're looking at a couple inches, though...even if nothing else were to work out, what do I lose by looking past it (seeing as it wouldn't be much excitement unless it trends better) Maybe for you and others that got 10-12" and don't need much more to hit climo...it's a stats padder but 0-2 inches is nothing (now get it up to 5 inches or more and I'll watch, lol) (not to say I'm fully invested in next weekend, but I am hoping it turns into something!) What I was trying so say is if you can't appreciate a 1-3/2-4" event followed by arctic air then you will often go multiple years in between events that are better than that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted January 25, 2019 Share Posted January 25, 2019 14 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: What I was trying so say is if you can't appreciate a 1-3/2-4" event followed by arctic air then you will often go multiple years in between events that are better than that. So 2-4 is still on the table, huh? And trust me, I'm aware of our history withthe big ticket events; but here is what I also know: we are either due for a larger storm or very close to it. The layoff between storms that drop at least a foot is 3-4 years! (only about three spans in our history that went longer than that). So since it has been 3 years since the 2016 blizzard...a footer could be due either this year or next year. But in general...I get the most enjoyment out of storms that go 5" plus...But at the same time, I see your point about the mid-week deal still be interesting by the dynamics (artic cold with potential snow cover of a few inches) can be interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MD Snow Posted January 25, 2019 Share Posted January 25, 2019 Some pretty significant changes with the coastal for Monday on the 18z nam through 78 hrs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 25, 2019 Share Posted January 25, 2019 4 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said: Is 2-4 even on the table? And trust me, I'm aware of our history withthe big ticket events; but here is what I also know: we are either due for a larger storm or very close to it. The layoff between storms that drop at least a foot is 3-4 years! (only about three spans in our history that went longer than that). So since it has been 3 years since the 2016 blizzard...a footer could be due either this year or next year. But in general...I get the most enjoyment out of storms that go 5" plus...But at the same time, I see your point about the mid-week deal still be interesting by the dynamics (artic cold with potential snow cover of a few inches) can be interesting. There is a ton of uncertainty with the tues/wed timeframe. We have a close pass with the TPV and the trough is going negative. Crazy thermal boundary as well. The upside is actually much higher than 2-4". It's an explosive setup on the euro/eps and very interesting from a met perspective. Someone could easily get nuked. Obviously further N has the best chance. I looked through all 50 euro solutions and it's pretty jaw dropping how many different scenarios are packed into one event. Our range is 0-10" with the solid majority giving us .2 - .4 qpf as snow. It could be very high ratio snow as well followed with howling winds and crashing temps. I surely don't see this setup as something to just gloss over and toss. Not by a longshot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted January 25, 2019 Share Posted January 25, 2019 11 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said: So 2-4 is still on the table, huh? And trust me, I'm aware of our history withthe big ticket events; but here is what I also know: we are either due for a larger storm or very close to it. The layoff between storms that drop at least a foot is 3-4 years! (only about three spans in our history that went longer than that). So since it has been 3 years since the 2016 blizzard...a footer could be due either this year or next year. But in general...I get the most enjoyment out of storms that go 5" plus...But at the same time, I see your point about the mid-week deal still be interesting by the dynamics (artic cold with potential snow cover of a few inches) can be interesting. Just enjoy whatever snow you get, that's the point...especially in the Mid Atlantic where we've had two awful winters in a row (single digit snow totals for me). Regarding T/W, nothing can be ruled out for now with such a complicated setup...anything from 0" to 5". Just keep following along. Of course people want 5" or more but to write off threats that are less than that isn't going to make you very happy living here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted January 25, 2019 Share Posted January 25, 2019 2 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: There is a ton of uncertainty with the tues/wed timeframe. We have a close pass with the TPV and the trough is going negative. Crazy thermal boundary as well. The upside is actually much higher than 2-4". It's an explosive setup on the euro/eps and very interesting from a met perspective. Someone could easily get nuked. Obviously further N has the best chance. I looked through all 50 euro solutions and it's pretty jaw dropping how many different scenarios are packed into one event. Our range is 0-10" with the solid majority giving us .2 - .4 qpf as snow. It could be very high ratio snow as well followed with howling winds and crashing temps. I surely don't see this setup as something to just gloss over and toss. Not by a longshot. Huh...the more you describe it, the more I see what you mean...Certainly not your run-of-the-mill clipper! Interest level increased to 30% Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted January 25, 2019 Share Posted January 25, 2019 13 minutes ago, MD Snow said: Some pretty significant changes with the coastal for Monday on the 18z nam through 78 hrs. That storm is long gone. Let it go. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 25, 2019 Author Share Posted January 25, 2019 Looking beyond any snow event in these parts is a huge recipe for disappointment. You never know when the last snow of the season is going to happen. Sounds like we might have already had it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MD Snow Posted January 25, 2019 Share Posted January 25, 2019 4 minutes ago, osfan24 said: That storm is long gone. Let it go. I've never been in on it. 1) It's interesting to see how it has trended hundred's of miles west in the last 24 hrs, especially as we have two potential coastal storms next week. Thinking there will be some other major changes with the two threats coming up later next week. 2) It may end up affecting our Tuesday/Wednesday deal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Steve25 Posted January 25, 2019 Share Posted January 25, 2019 Fingers crossed for one of these potentials to give us a nice payoff. In the meantime, I'm just hoping we have enough cold to create some decent ice coverage on the streams/rivers by next weekend! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowCane Posted January 25, 2019 Share Posted January 25, 2019 7 minutes ago, osfan24 said: That storm is long gone. Let it go. It's nothing to just forget about. The way it's trending, it looks like it could end up scraping the coast and influencing the atmosphere ahead of the front. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted January 25, 2019 Share Posted January 25, 2019 7 minutes ago, osfan24 said: That storm is long gone. Let it go. The thing is, the longer it lingers there and the closer it gets to our region the more potential there is for energy to be left behind as it departs for Jan 30th system to key on. When all is said and done it may very well have a major impact on what we see with the system we are tracking. Then again maybe not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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