Ralph Wiggum Posted January 25, 2019 Share Posted January 25, 2019 6 minutes ago, LP08 said: Ehh we kinda get stuck in between the coastal and the trailer. Front slowed by about 6 hrs. Convoluted setup. War halts the progression east. Not sure this is what we want to see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted January 25, 2019 Share Posted January 25, 2019 2 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: War halts the progression east. Not sure this is what we want to see. Also doesn’t help that the PV lobe drops in a little further west as well. Probably a result of the War as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 25, 2019 Share Posted January 25, 2019 4 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: War halts the progression east. Not sure this is what we want to see. It is so close to a nice hit though. A little bit weaker HP over Maine and we are getting hit. Still plenty of time to work out the details. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted January 25, 2019 Share Posted January 25, 2019 18 minutes ago, nw baltimore wx said: Good find, Showme! I couldn't find anything using lwx in my searches. If i remember correctly we had just moved up to PA from Catonsville when that storm hit. It was a gut punch because we got 6 to maybe 8 inches up here while areas to the south were scoring 12-18+ inches. Think PSU doubled my total as well. Come to learn it happens quite often up here where PSU complains about getting fringed and yet he scores and I end up on the low end. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 25, 2019 Share Posted January 25, 2019 NAVGEM took sides with the gfs and fv3 and redevelops a second low off the N NJ coast. Crushes interior NE. Wouldn't stick a fork in it especially at this range and with all the pieces in play but we are losing many of the scenarios where we 'got something' out of this. We may have been better off with the anafront scenario tbh. ICON is too far W and the others look like redeveloping Miller B (hybrids?) which occurs a hair too late for both our areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted January 25, 2019 Share Posted January 25, 2019 3 minutes ago, LP08 said: Also doesn’t help that the PV lobe drops in a little further west as well. Probably a result of the War as well. yeah that's a bit concerning. Notable jump W at 111. Not sure my area is "safe" either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted January 25, 2019 Share Posted January 25, 2019 Just now, Ralph Wiggum said: NAVGEM took sides with the gfs and fv3 and redevelops a second low off the N NJ coast. Crushes interior NE. Wouldn't stick a fork in it especially at this range and with all the pieces in play but we are losing many of the scenarios where we 'got something' out of this. We may have been better off with the anafront scenario tbh. ICON is too far W and the others look like redeveloping Miller B (hybrids?) which occurs a hair too late for both our areas. Ha, only in this winter would we consider an anafront in easier scenario than a coastal. Still got time to inch toward victory, but I hope we aren't caught in between and watch the coastal crush north of us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 25, 2019 Share Posted January 25, 2019 Just now, osfan24 said: Ha, only in this winter would we consider an anafront in easier scenario than a coastal. Still got time to inch toward victory, but I hope we aren't caught in between and watch the coastal crush north of us. We still have the euro family til 12z anyway so there's that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted January 25, 2019 Share Posted January 25, 2019 4 minutes ago, LP08 said: Also doesn’t help that the PV lobe drops in a little further west as well. Probably a result of the War as well. The talk of the PV forecasted going more West was the topic of the Mount Holly Long term discussion this AM. Actually I thought even though anafronts here usualy suck, I was thinking the set-up yesterday looked decent for a 1 out of every 20 positive outcome around these parts. This will end up a New England snowstorm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 25, 2019 Share Posted January 25, 2019 2 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: NAVGEM took sides with the gfs and fv3 and redevelops a second low off the N NJ coast. Crushes interior NE. Wouldn't stick a fork in it especially at this range and with all the pieces in play but we are losing many of the scenarios where we 'got something' out of this. We may have been better off with the anafront scenario tbh. ICON is too far W and the others look like redeveloping Miller B (hybrids?) which occurs a hair too late for both our areas. What day is this possible event for? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Franklin0529 Posted January 25, 2019 Share Posted January 25, 2019 On 1/21/2019 at 11:33 PM, LP08 said: It’s probably what, the third time we have seen it at this range? The follow up wave idea that is. Fools gold at range but it’s nice too look at for the time being. Im on the central jersey shore. Our thread is dead. Was wondering whats your thoughts about up ib jersey getting into some of the redeveloping coastal? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 25, 2019 Share Posted January 25, 2019 2 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: NAVGEM took sides with the gfs and fv3 and redevelops a second low off the N NJ coast. Crushes interior NE. Wouldn't stick a fork in it especially at this range and with all the pieces in play but we are losing many of the scenarios where we 'got something' out of this. We may have been better off with the anafront scenario tbh. ICON is too far W and the others look like redeveloping Miller B (hybrids?) which occurs a hair too late for both our areas. You have a better chance with a Miller B than we do anyways. They are the ultimate screwjob for our area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted January 25, 2019 Share Posted January 25, 2019 1 minute ago, frd said: The talk of the PV forecasted going more West was the topic of the Mount Holly Long term discussion this AM. Actually I thought even though anafronts here usualy suck, I was thinking the set-up yesterday looked decent for a 1 out of every 20 positive outcome around these parts. This will end up a New England snowstorm. The 6z EPS also showed the PV dropping in significantly west of 0z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted January 25, 2019 Share Posted January 25, 2019 2 minutes ago, Franklin0529 said: Im on the central jersey shore. Our thread is dead. Was wondering whats your thoughts about up ib jersey getting into some of the redeveloping coastal? Kinda stuck as well...the front still needs to clear. I think the only hope is with the trailer going under all of us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted January 25, 2019 Share Posted January 25, 2019 1 minute ago, Ralph Wiggum said: NAVGEM took sides with the gfs and fv3 and redevelops a second low off the N NJ coast. Crushes interior NE. Wouldn't stick a fork in it especially at this range and with all the pieces in play but we are losing many of the scenarios where we 'got something' out of this. We may have been better off with the anafront scenario tbh. ICON is too far W and the others look like redeveloping Miller B (hybrids?) which occurs a hair too late for both our areas. Really didn't/don't like the idea of post frontal anafront-low snows. Chances are very good we fail at that with nothing more then a quick dusting at best. Just takes to much in the way of cooperation between the different levels of the lower atmosphere to get the lift and transport over the colder air that we need. Think our best chances lie with a discrete southern system pulling through the area and hoping that the cold reaches us in time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 25, 2019 Share Posted January 25, 2019 GFS looks decent on IWM. Light snow through the area from 12-18Z Tuesday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 25, 2019 Share Posted January 25, 2019 WAR keeps expanding W and subsequently blocking the PV farther W on the gfs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 25, 2019 Share Posted January 25, 2019 Just now, clskinsfan said: GFS looks decent on IWM. Light snow through the area from 12-18Z Tuesday. TT shows rain? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 25, 2019 Share Posted January 25, 2019 1 minute ago, yoda said: TT shows rain? Hmm. I am just going by 850's and precip panel. On IWM it would be snow IMO. And it is actually a decent hit from DC up north through Baltimore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted January 25, 2019 Share Posted January 25, 2019 1 minute ago, yoda said: TT shows rain? Closer to 0z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 25, 2019 Share Posted January 25, 2019 Just now, clskinsfan said: Hmm. I am just going by 850's and precip panel. On IWM it would be snow IMO. TT shows rain 12z to 18z... then snow 18z to 00z. quite possible what you have is correct though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted January 25, 2019 Share Posted January 25, 2019 Just now, clskinsfan said: Hmm. I am just going by 850's and precip panel. On IWM it would be snow IMO. That shows 6hrs previous precip with temps not falling until after. Still better than the ICON Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 25, 2019 Share Posted January 25, 2019 Just now, clskinsfan said: Hmm. I am just going by 850's and precip panel. On IWM it would be snow IMO. TT shows the warmth is really just confined to the boundary layer. Temps near 50 ahead of the front. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted January 25, 2019 Share Posted January 25, 2019 I am gonna say - even if it snows - trace to half inch at best on some grass! Not excited! Well - at least for the GFS depiction Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MD Snow Posted January 25, 2019 Share Posted January 25, 2019 Gem is a Miller b screw job. Light snow to end maybe. Agree about the WAR messing with things. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 25, 2019 Share Posted January 25, 2019 GFS is like 0.5-1" for NoVA/DC/MD. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted January 25, 2019 Share Posted January 25, 2019 Just now, midatlanticweather said: I am gonna say - even if it snows - trace to half inch at best on some grass! Not excited! yeah. Ol man GFS says no southern love for you....MA. anafront snow.....meh now we just hope the new kid on the block FV3 tells his ol man to step aside. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 25, 2019 Share Posted January 25, 2019 Just now, MD Snow said: Gem is a Miller b screw job. Light snow to end maybe. Agree about the WAR messing with things. If you count Miller B as being over SNE inland near VT at 120 lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted January 25, 2019 Share Posted January 25, 2019 Just now, yoda said: If you count Miller B as being over SNE inland near VT at 120 lol I was gonna say...that ain't a Miller B...nobody south of there gets much more than we do this run! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MD Snow Posted January 25, 2019 Share Posted January 25, 2019 2 minutes ago, yoda said: If you count Miller B as being over SNE inland near VT at 120 lol Hybrid then? It pops a low off the jersey coast before slamming it into interior north east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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