January/February Winter Storm Threat Tracker

[Herb@MAWS]

LWX Friday morning discussion now has similar thoughts:

The forecast gets a bit more complicated than it was looking 24
hours ago as we head into Tuesday afternoon and Tuesday night.
Global models differ in the progression of the front, and the
potential development of a wave of low pressure moving across the
Mid Atlantic. With southerly flow ahead of the system Tuesday,
temperatures will rise above normal in the 40s to near 50 degrees.
So as precip chances increase during the day Tuesday, do expect rain
to be the dominate ptype along and east of the Blue Ridge, with
rain/snow possible across the mountains as colder air tries to
infiltrate.  As the front progresses eastward, we could see a
transition to snow, even in the metro areas Tuesday evening and
Tuesday night. The ECMWF has trended quite a bit slower with the
system through our region, lingering precipitation into Wednesday
morning, which would favor drawing in more cold air as low pressure
moves up the coast. The GFS is more progressive, but does indicate a
change over to snow east of the mountains Tuesday evening. However,
it lacks a developing wave along the coast and drier northwesterly
winds drive precip to the east by midnight Tuesday night. High
uncertainty remains given the timing differences, so stay tuned.

[showmethesnow]

5 minutes ago, Scraff said:

Good morning! Happy Friday. So today we root for the coastal to trend? That whole frontal snow thing seemed weird to me anyway. 

Though some of the solutions we were seeing with post frontal snows were fun to look at I really wasn't buying into them. At least with some of the snowfall numbers they were throwing out. There is a reason we fail most times with them. The timing of the lift through the different levels in the atmosphere have to hit just right or our moisture supply gets cut off. I will say though that the current setup probably is more favorable for this to work then we typically see but the odds are still probably pretty low. 

So long story short. Hell yeah, let's root for a southern/coastal low. 

[Scraff]

3 minutes ago, showmethesnow said:

Though some of the solutions we were seeing with post frontal snows were fun to look at I really wasn't buying into them. At least with some of the snowfall numbers they were throwing out. There is a reason we fail most times with them. The timing of the lift through the different levels in the atmosphere have to hit just right or our moisture supply gets cut off. I will say though that the current setup probably is more favorable for this to work then we typically see but the odds are still probably pretty low. 

So long story short. Hell yeah, let's root for a southern/coastal low. 

Coffee just kicked in. 

Shooooow meeeeee the moneeeeey! Oh wait. You lost it all in Vegas. We’ll go with shoooooow me the snoooooooow! 

I like the ideas presented though. Let’s gamble on the coastal for sure!

[showmethesnow]

06Z GEFS is still not really buying into southern low development. Also seeing the pv drop a little farther west as well as a deeper drop fully into Wisconsin. Snow means are roughly equivalent as well.

[Ralph Wiggum]

23 minutes ago, showmethesnow said:

06Z GEFS is still not really buying into southern low development. Also seeing the pv drop a little farther west as well as a deeper drop fully into Wisconsin. Snow means are roughly equivalent as well.

Yeah he gfs camp is odd. It had more a Miller b coastal pop up late in the game and no semblance of a 'southern low' at all like the cmc or euro.

[frd]

4 hours ago, psuhoffman said:

Yep this looks about right 

Does this map jog your memory ?  From the seasonals and the 46 day snowfall ? 

The persistent area of heavy snowfall to our East , very little in the former jackpot zones to our West and SW

Looks like late bloomers and Miller Bs 

These maps are guidelines but really useless for the most part, but the look is interesting. 

Certainly the only take away here is storms being pushed South of us looks unlikely according to the EPS.

Things are so confusing even Mount Holly had this to say , here with a focus on temps fior my region:

After the system moves out by Wednesday night, the cold
temperatures will be the story. Guidance is trending colder,
which is not unusual as the event approaches. The large Canada
vortex digs into the area, at least briefly, to end the week,
and very cold air will filter into the region. Statistical
consensus guidance has temperatures around 20 in Philadelphia
for highs and around or maybe below 10 for lows for Thursday.
Noteworthy, though, are some large differences among the
individual statistical members. The 00z EC guidance is much,
much warmer (by nearly 15 degrees, give or take) and appears to
be tied to how the Canada vortex pivots after the system moves
out of the region during the middle of the week. In other words,
it will likely be cold, but there are still some questions as to
how cold and for how long. Stay tuned.

 

 

 

[pasnownut]

17 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

Yeah he gfs camp is odd. It had more a Miller b coastal pop up late in the game and no semblance of a 'southern low' at all like the cmc or euro.

But i would say that toggling back to previous runs, it seems to look a little better on the southern side that one could extrapolate a possible trailer starting to show up in future runs. 

Look here.

18z

 

6z

 

[PivotPoint]

7 minutes ago, frd said:

Does this map jog your memory ?  From the seasonals and the 46 day snowfall ? 

The persistent area of heavy snowfall to our East , very little in the former jackpot zones to our West and SW

Looks like late bloomers and Miller Bs 

These maps are guidelines but really useless for the most part, but the look is interesting. 

Certainly the only take away here is storms being pushed South of us looks unlikely according to the EPS.

Things are so confusing even Mount Holly had this to say , here with a focus on temps fior my region:

After the system moves out by Wednesday night, the cold
temperatures will be the story. Guidance is trending colder,
which is not unusual as the event approaches. The large Canada
vortex digs into the area, at least briefly, to end the week,
and very cold air will filter into the region. Statistical
consensus guidance has temperatures around 20 in Philadelphia
for highs and around or maybe below 10 for lows for Thursday.
Noteworthy, though, are some large differences among the
individual statistical members. The 00z EC guidance is much,
much warmer (by nearly 15 degrees, give or take) and appears to
be tied to how the Canada vortex pivots after the system moves
out of the region during the middle of the week. In other words,
it will likely be cold, but there are still some questions as to
how cold and for how long. Stay tuned.

 

 

 

Interesting point to this too is I’m not sure a southern system is our best option. Temps out in front of the frontal passage will be in the mid 40s. With the anafront idea we’d have a dynamic temp gradient working in our favor that produces a short but looks to be intense period of snow showers/squalls as the front swings through. This would probably yield as a couple inches if accurate.

With a SS low development the cold air might  not be in place yet because the front has not come through. Complex timing here but my gut tells me a southern wave might not have the cold quite there yet.

[nw baltimore wx]

This may not belong here, but does anyone remember the February 11, 2006 storm?   I think it started as rain in the evening and quickly went to heavy snow.  It ended up dumping a foot or more of fluffy, light snow on gusty northwesterly winds.  Just checking to see if that is similar to what the euro might be trying to do with the Tuesday evening system.

eta: I'm not trying to suggest that we are getting a foot of snow, but just trying to remember the evolution of the 2006 system.

[frd]

2 minutes ago, PivotPoint said:

Interesting point to this too is I’m not sure a southern system is our best option. Temps out in front of the frontal passage will be in the mid 40s. With the anafront idea we’d have a dynamic temp gradient working in our favor that produces a short but looks to be intense period of snow showers/squalls as the front swings through. This would probably yield as a couple inches if accurate.

With a SS low development the cold air might  not be in place yet because the front has not come through. Complex timing here but my gut tells me a southern wave might not have the cold quite there yet.

Yes @showmethesnow mentioned that. I don't care about how it snows. Anafront works for me with snow and plunging temps .

In my comments above I was really focusing on the next 15 days ( 360 EPS ) and how the snow is distributed.  

There are many moving parts for next week's event.  Still too early to pin it down.  

Mouny Holly was mentioning the pivot of the PV and evolution. There are several possibilities.  

[Fozz]

9 minutes ago, nw baltimore wx said:

This may not belong here, but does anyone remember the February 11, 2006 storm?   I think it started as rain in the evening and quickly went to heavy snow.  It ended up dumping a foot or more of fluffy, light snow on gusty northwesterly winds.  Just checking to see if that is similar to what the euro might be trying to do with the Tuesday evening system.

eta: I'm not trying to suggest that we are getting a foot of snow, but just trying to remember the evolution of the 2006 system.

Yeah, it started as light rain, transitioned to hours of snowTV, but after dusk, the snow really got heavy. I remember getting some thundersnow around 2am. Ended up with 15”.

[pasnownut]

15 minutes ago, PivotPoint said:

Interesting point to this too is I’m not sure a southern system is our best option. Temps out in front of the frontal passage will be in the mid 40s. With the anafront idea we’d have a dynamic temp gradient working in our favor that produces a short but looks to be intense period of snow showers/squalls as the front swings through. This would probably yield as a couple inches if accurate.

With a SS low development the cold air might  not be in place yet because the front has not come through. Complex timing here but my gut tells me a southern wave might not have the cold quite there yet.

Not sure I agree bud. 

Anafront snows to me are like atmospheric leftovers....we get whatever is left upstairs. That typically is nothing short of a cartopper at best.

IMO get that front further east and give the caboose something colder to work with and let dynamics do the work.  JMO, but I think you understand my point.  Its a gamble either way, but to your point and like a bunch of us have been touting, not going to parse over how it snows.....just snow damnit.

 

[SomeguyfromTakomaPark]

EPS 6z snow map improved again for our area.  Noticing the nothern part of our subforum down to about Baltimore is now in the 4-6 range.  Also noticing better coverage in western NC.

[PivotPoint]

4 minutes ago, pasnownut said:

Not sure I agree bud. 

Anafront snows to me are like atmospheric leftovers....we get whatever is left upstairs. That typically is nothing short of a cartopper at best.

IMO get that front further east and give the caboose something colder to work with and let dynamics do the work.  JMO, but I think you understand my point.  Its a gamble either way, but to your point and like a bunch of us have been touting, not going to parse over how it snows.....just snow damnit.

 

Oh yea, totally agree that it’s usally a car topper at best.

However, this anafront has been pretty consistently modeled with the low to our NW helping drag the frontal passage in our area as it passes through (like was mentioned yesterday) there’s enough time for the moisture to flow back over top the cold air. Point is it’s not the “typical” fast moving front we sometimes get that has no corresponding low to our NW creating that elongated/dragging that helps slow the passage just in time as it comes through our region.

My opinion differs in that I do not think the front swings through in time even if we get a low to pop off the SE coast. And if it even does it’s a catch 22 — if the low to our NW gets out of the way and slows the front more to allow for development then it’s probably to warm. If it swings though and the NW low is too vigorous then it probably means a low that pops near us is OTS. All speculation. But I do see your point 

[frd]

3 minutes ago, DCTeacherman said:

EPS 6z snow map improved again for our area.  Noticing the nothern part of our subforum is now in the 4-6 range.  Also noticing better coverage in western NC.

Have you noticed the last 24 hours the confluence is pushing the boundaries Southwest. It continued this morning as well. 

[tombo82685]

8 minutes ago, DCTeacherman said:

EPS 6z snow map improved again for our area.  Noticing the nothern part of our subforum down to about Baltimore is now in the 4-6 range.  Also noticing better coverage in western NC.

 

 

I'd be careful with those vista snow maps, they are pretty suspect. The weatherbell ones at 0z are much less than what those ones have at 0z. Does anyone have USweathermodels 6z eps snow map to compare?

[osfan24]

1 minute ago, tombo82685 said:

I'd be careful with those vista snow maps, they are pretty suspect. The weatherbell ones at 0z are much less than what those ones have at 0z. Does anyone have USweathermodels 6z eps snow map to compare?

I thought the vista snow maps were usually much more conservative than the weatherbell ones?

[SomeguyfromTakomaPark]

1 minute ago, tombo82685 said:

I'd be careful with those vista snow maps, they are pretty suspect. The weatherbell ones at 0z are much less than what those ones have at 0z. Does anyone have USweathermodels 6z eps snow map to compare?

Yeah their algorithm is highly suspect, but for comparison purposes I think maybe it's still useful.  Does weatherbell have the 6z/18z Euro?

[nw baltimore wx]

23 minutes ago, Fozz said:

Yeah, it started as light rain, transitioned to hours of snowTV, but after dusk, the snow really got heavy. I remember getting some thundersnow around 2am. Ended up with 15”.

Here's the radar loop.  You may have to enter the dates. 

Right now I don't see much in the way of similarities.

http://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/current/mcview.phtml?prod=usrad&java=script&mode=archive&frames=70&interval=30&year=2006&month=2&day=10&hour=19&minute=0

[LP08]

I’m not sure weather models has 6z/18z eps snow but that site is a train wreck so I might have missed it.

[tombo82685]

Just now, osfan24 said:

I thought the vista snow maps were usually much more conservative than the weatherbell ones?

Other way around...Here is what I mean. 0z eps from weatherbell to vista

 

 

[tombo82685]

3 minutes ago, DCTeacherman said:

Yeah their algorithm is highly suspect, but for comparison purposes I think maybe it's still useful.  Does weatherbell have the 6z/18z Euro?

No, but I know USweathermodels does. Some people have that so thats what I was asking. 

[showmethesnow]

1 hour ago, nw baltimore wx said:

This may not belong here, but does anyone remember the February 11, 2006 storm?   I think it started as rain in the evening and quickly went to heavy snow.  It ended up dumping a foot or more of fluffy, light snow on gusty northwesterly winds.  Just checking to see if that is similar to what the euro might be trying to do with the Tuesday evening system.

eta: I'm not trying to suggest that we are getting a foot of snow, but just trying to remember the evolution of the 2006 system.

 

1 hour ago, Fozz said:

Yeah, it started as light rain, transitioned to hours of snowTV, but after dusk, the snow really got heavy. I remember getting some thundersnow around 2am. Ended up with 15”.

https://www.weather.gov/rlx/WIN021106

https://www.weather.gov/gsp/11-13Feb_Snow

http://www.philip-lutzak.com/weather/Snow Storm 02-11-2006 Project/Snow Storm 02-11-2006.htm

[MD Snow]

I think areas east of 95 need to keep an eye on the coastal for Monday. It’s really trending further west with each model suite.  EPS gets precip on to the eastern shore now. Not going to be high impact most likely but still interesting. 

[LP08]

ICON leaving more energy behind the main NS Vort.  Let’s hope the front clears first

[nw baltimore wx]

50 minutes ago, showmethesnow said:

https://www.weather.gov/rlx/WIN021106

https://www.weather.gov/gsp/11-13Feb_Snow

http://www.philip-lutzak.com/weather/Snow Storm 02-11-2006 Project/Snow Storm 02-11-2006.htm

Good find, Showme!  I couldn't find anything using lwx in my searches.

[pasnownut]

8 minutes ago, LP08 said:

ICON leaving more energy behind the main NS Vort.  Let’s hope the front clears first

yup.  Jumpin on da train?  Seems like it.

[LP08]

Just now, pasnownut said:

yup.  Jumpin on da train?  Seems like it.

Ehh we kinda get stuck in between the coastal and the trailer.  Front slowed by about 6 hrs.  Convoluted setup.

[frd]

53 minutes ago, MD Snow said:

I think areas east of 95 need to keep an eye on the coastal for Monday. It’s really trending further west with each model suite.  EPS gets precip on to the eastern shore now. Not going to be high impact most likely but still interesting. 

I don't know about you but just seeing the same issues as before.

As for early next week, I did watched Bernie's video  but he seems to think biggest snowfall threat next week is up North.   

Moving further along to later next week, I thought the NAO would help but not sure now. Then enter the picture of the uncertain evolution regarding the PV next week. Would not be surprised to see it not be as cold even out West. 

Still awaiting the sustained -SOI spark, the only positives are the orbit on the MJO going into the COD , the ensemble AO to dive to possibly -4 SD end of the month or early Feb and some improvement in the Pac down the road.

Maybe it does boil down to a window later in Feb. I am still optimisitc but mother nature does even throw  us a bone.  So much cold has been wasted this winter.

If we do get things to work in harmoney in early Feb then we will have multiple oppurtunities in the month.  Of course this can all be wrong, because the pattern is very volatile.      

 

 

[LP08]

7 minutes ago, pasnownut said:

yup.  Jumpin on da train?  Seems like it.

However it’s much better for your area into MD