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January/February Winter Storm Threat Tracker


Ji

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5 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

Since we're throwing around weenie fantasy maps I figured I should post the biggest storm on the EPS. This one literally buries 95 and east with what looks like 30+" of snow. A 968 tucked like that with arctic air sprawled banana style all over the top of it would be a true blizzard of the likes that I've only seen in the Rockies. This has to be a front runner for the weeniest storm ever inside of 10 days. Maybe I'm missing one but a sub 970 tucked like that is mind boggling... lol

7tjQRwT.jpg

 

ETA: it's like 40"+ and that doesn't even take ratios into consideration. LOL

But the NW trend. Tucked low wont cut it.

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Back from my 48 hour weather cleanse lol. If that threat is still there when were a week out then I will start to pay attention. Something that is in closer range is the bitter cold starting next Wednesday. Just hoping I can get one stretch of temps that will freeze the streams/rivers near me. How confident are we that cold next week won't be short lived like the beginning of this week was?

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13 minutes ago, BristowWx said:

Maybe if it was next Thursday.  Way too early to lose sleep.  

Yea, way too far out in time to worry about run over run changes on ops. We have no idea how the arctic front wave is going to go let alone a d8-10 coastal. All we can say right now is we might get some snowfall with the front and there might be more chances down the line. Oh, and also the odds of the control run verifying are lower than the Redskins having a winning season next year. 

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52 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

Since we're throwing around weenie fantasy maps I figured I should post the biggest storm on the EPS. This one literally buries 95 and east with what looks like 30+" of snow. A 968 tucked like that with arctic air sprawled banana style all over the top of it would be a true blizzard of the likes that I've only seen in the Rockies. This has to be a front runner for the weeniest storm ever inside of 10 days. Maybe I'm missing one but a sub 970 tucked like that is mind boggling... lol

7tjQRwT.jpg

 

ETA: it's like 40"+ and that doesn't even take ratios into consideration. LOL

looking at EPS at 500, I couldnt find a panel that I/we couldn't work with.  Some bootleg looks, but with all of the shortwaves getting thrown in, it would be a nice window to put some snow on the boards IMO.  PNA vascilates, but enough ridging to keep flow workable when things look less than ideal.  Thats normal winter around here to me.  

I take.... (and that snapshot above....wowzers).  T-9 days....hehe

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8 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

Oh, and also the odds of the control run verifying are lower than the Redskins having a winning season next year. 

Even the Browns have a better shot at a winning season than that!

But seriously, that was a nice run even if the control is way out there extreme.  It is nice to have some signal for the post-frontal snow and another opportunity shortly after.  And cold!

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Just now, Always in Zugzwang said:

Even the Browns have a better shot at a winning season than that!

But seriously, that was a nice run even if the control is way out there extreme.  It is nice to have some signal for the post-frontal snow and another opportunity shortly after.  And cold!

I dont care if the control run goes batshit for the next 9 days and we end up with 3-6" at this juncture. #beggars

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21 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

Yea, way too far out in time to worry about run over run changes on ops. We have no idea how the arctic front wave is going to go let alone a d8-10 coastal. All we can say right now is we might get some snowfall with the front and there might be more chances down the line. Oh, and also the odds of the control run verifying are lower than the Redskins having a winning season next year. 

I would go with the control run over the Redskins having a winning season...

(From a Cowboys Fan):D

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12 minutes ago, pasnownut said:

I dont care if the control run goes batshit for the next 9 days and we end up with 3-6" at this juncture. #beggars

If the control run...and every single other model...goes batshit crazy for the next 9 days and that storm happens like shown, then we can guarantee a Cleveland Browns vs. Washington Redskins Super Bowl next year! :D

(ETA:  or maybe it would be the Detroit Lions rather than Washington...)

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31 minutes ago, Always in Zugzwang said:

If the control run...and every single other model...goes batshit crazy for the next 9 days and that storm happens like shown, then we can guarantee a Cleveland Browns vs. Washington Redskins Super Bowl next year! :D

(ETA:  or maybe it would be the Detroit Lions rather than Washington...)

I could see models locking in to a big one for 8 days then day 9 shift N and crush Boston. They r due.

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11 minutes ago, jaydreb said:

GFS looks pathetic for Tues-Weds snow.  

my hunch is that it'll be more of a squally type situation as opposed to any kind of a storm.  temps are somewhat mild leading it, then they drop like a rock.  maybe we get into a more wintry pattern thereafter once that pv relaxes.  that said, if the euro is showing some decent snow, then i guess that's what we track for now.

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Just now, 87storms said:

my hunch is that it'll be more of a squally type situation as opposed to any kind of a storm.  temps are somewhat mild leading it, then they drop like a rock.  maybe we get into a more wintry pattern thereafter once that pv relaxes.  that said, if the euro is showing some decent snow, then i guess that's what we track for now.

Yeah, I mean I would take anything but pouring rain at this point.  

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7 minutes ago, jaydreb said:

Yeah, I mean I would take anything but pouring rain at this point.  

agreed, and i should have said "snowier" pattern.  any arctic air is wintry lol.  with that tues system, we may need to rely on some kind of a low to develop along the front in time for the temp crash.  i didn't look at the euro, but maybe that's what's causing it to show a few inches.  we might not know exactly what kind of a frontal passage we're dealing with until the weekend.

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