Hyphnx Posted January 24, 2019 Share Posted January 24, 2019 Hmmm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 24, 2019 Author Share Posted January 24, 2019 9 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Drops 2' in the bullseye on DC. lol. Yea, that would work. Everyone gets 20"+ or so. Especially because it's a 10-1 map and the storm blasts right into arctic air. All we can do is dream right now. I do like seeing 2 chances inside of 10 days though. I'm totally burnt on d10-15 this year. Maybe we'll be too busy to care about it coming up. dude--the euro control is more wrong than the snow crazy ggem. Get your expecations in check Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AfewUniversesBelowNormal Posted January 24, 2019 Share Posted January 24, 2019 In the 1990s, there would be 9-13 smaller events during the year.. snow squalls, clippers, etc. That doesn't happen anymore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 24, 2019 Share Posted January 24, 2019 Just now, Ji said: dude--the euro control is more wrong than the snow crazy ggem. Get your expecations in check Are you really telling me that I shouldn't believe a control or op 9 days out? When has that ever gone wrong? Just don't break your new character. Our lives are riding on this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaydreb Posted January 24, 2019 Share Posted January 24, 2019 1 minute ago, Ji said: dude--the euro control is more wrong than the snow crazy ggem. Get your expecations in check Too late. This train has left the station! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WestminsterSnowCapitalMA Posted January 24, 2019 Share Posted January 24, 2019 I'm counting on this cold so bad, i need my back yard ice rink to freeze. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted January 24, 2019 Share Posted January 24, 2019 2 minutes ago, Ji said: dude--the euro control is more wrong than the snow crazy ggem. Get your expecations in check Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted January 24, 2019 Share Posted January 24, 2019 5 minutes ago, jaydreb said: Too late. This train has left the station! Who is starting the Storm Thread? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 24, 2019 Share Posted January 24, 2019 The list of things I wouldn’t give for that control run is really short. First of all the 2” it gives us with the front is really 4” with ratios. Then I don’t think people fully get how much snow that day 8-10 storm is. Forget the foot we all get from the overrunning. Then we sit under the CCB with a cut off upper low and stalled storm as it snows itself out for 24 hours with temperatures around 10 degrees. That inch of qpf is like 20”. On top of the foot from the WAA. Very 1996 in that regard only even colder and slower as crazy as that sounds. That would seriously be a once in a lifetime event for our area. If only... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted January 24, 2019 Share Posted January 24, 2019 1 minute ago, Interstate said: Who is starting the Storm Thread? Unpopular Opinion...storm threads shouldn't be started until there's a watch out. Beyond that it's still mid/long range disco. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted January 24, 2019 Share Posted January 24, 2019 1 minute ago, Eskimo Joe said: Unpopular Opinion...storm threads shouldn't be started until there's a watch out. Beyond that it's still mid/long range disco. You know that was a joke right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted January 24, 2019 Share Posted January 24, 2019 Just now, Interstate said: You know that was a joke right? Yup. Just adding an unsolicited opinion. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deer Whisperer Posted January 24, 2019 Share Posted January 24, 2019 18 minutes ago, jaydreb said: Enjoy for 12 hours! I’m gonna save this for when i miss snow in the summer Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 24, 2019 Share Posted January 24, 2019 25 minutes ago, losetoa6 said: Control breaks a lobe off the PV day 9 and goes bowling ball bonkers . Lows tracks from western gulf to off VA coast This is a probable scenario given how the upper air pattern is setting up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted January 24, 2019 Share Posted January 24, 2019 14 minutes ago, Ji said: dude--the euro control is more wrong than the snow crazy ggem. Get your expecations in check Hey, we haven't even had good fantasy runs to look at the last couple weeks--so it's a relief to see even this, lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowmagnet Posted January 24, 2019 Share Posted January 24, 2019 9 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: The list of things I wouldn’t give for that control run is really short. First of all the 2” it gives us with the front is really 4” with ratios. Then I don’t think people fully get how much snow that day 8-10 storm is. Forget the foot we all get from the overrunning. Then we sit under the CCB with a cut off upper low and stalled storm as it snows itself out for 24 hours with temperatures around 10 degrees. That inch of qpf is like 20”. On top of the foot from the WAA. Very 1996 in that regard only even colder and slower as crazy as that sounds. That would seriously be a once in a lifetime event for our area. If only... Sounds perfect. Wait a second. We are looking at a possibly on Jan 30th and February 5th?? Hmmm. That sounds familiar. Wouldn’t that be amazing to do all over again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted January 24, 2019 Share Posted January 24, 2019 2 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said: Hey, we haven't even had good fantasy runs to look at the last couple weeks--so it's a relief to see even this, lol I was just about to post the exact same thing. At least there is some hope of something big in the next 10 days. And the pattern seems to be improving a tad with each run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 24, 2019 Share Posted January 24, 2019 15 minutes ago, AfewUniversesBelowNormal said: In the 1990s, there would be 9-13 smaller events during the year.. snow squalls, clippers, etc. That doesn't happen anymore. Great post! Fits the discussion nicely. 8 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: The list of things I wouldn’t give for that control run is really short. First of all the 2” it gives us with the front is really 4” with ratios. Then I don’t think people fully get how much snow that day 8-10 storm is. Forget the foot we all get from the overrunning. Then we sit under the CCB with a cut off upper low and stalled storm as it snows itself out for 24 hours with temperatures around 10 degrees. That inch of qpf is like 20”. On top of the foot from the WAA. Very 1996 in that regard only even colder and slower as crazy as that sounds. That would seriously be a once in a lifetime event for our area. If only... It's beautiful man. This is the one. The window is open! Just dont jump out of it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted January 24, 2019 Share Posted January 24, 2019 23 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Yea, it's fookin epic even if fantasy. Comes out of the south in 2 waves and takes 48 hours to finish destroying us. A little bit like PD2... Been a while since anyone talked dirty in here. We missed it. On mobile but can’t wait to get home and look at model porn. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 24, 2019 Share Posted January 24, 2019 Just now, osfan24 said: I was just about to post the exact same thing. At least there is some hope of something big in the next 10 days. And the pattern seems to be improving a tad with each run. We've had a handful of day 10 fantasy storms this year and none planned out. This one is 9 days out and confidence level of this event happening is very high. Maybe not verbatim as depicted but this one has legs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 24, 2019 Author Share Posted January 24, 2019 EPS snowfall mean map is 4. thats like default. next... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 24, 2019 Share Posted January 24, 2019 Normally I would urge caution about being in the bullseye at 10 days out but since we are under that range and this is the euro family depicting this I think it's a solid place to be attm. Looking at hotels in the area now for a road trip. The snow hole moved N to my area this year so I'm chasing this one. I refuse to miss out on another one to my South this winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blue Dream Posted January 24, 2019 Share Posted January 24, 2019 Just now, Ralph Wiggum said: Normally I would urge caution about being in the bullseye at 10 days out but since we are under that range and this is the euro family depicting this I think it's a solid place to be attm. Looking at hotels in the area now for a road trip. The snow hole moved N to my area this year so I'm chasing this one. I refuse to miss out on another one to my South this winter. Doesn't look like were in the snowhole with this one...according to the mean Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 24, 2019 Share Posted January 24, 2019 Just now, pasnownut said: Been a while since anyone talked dirty in here. We missed it. On mobile but can’t wait to get home and look at model porn. There's a lot to like in general with the entire EPS run honestly. Very strong support for some kind of event (probably small) with the arctic front next week. Then a chance for a miller A of some sort a few days later. Even d10-15 has improved to the point that I would call it a good but not great pattern. However, considering how much has changed in just 2-3 days it wouldn't surprise me if things just keep on improving. I made a post yesterday or day before when ops and ens showed the TPV dropping down into the conus and into SE canada and said I've never seen a transient pattern like that where it just goes bad shortly after. Sure enough that doesn't appear to want to happen from what we can tell right now. Crawl walk and run though. We need the TPV drop and arctic front to move through (or be close) before we can really hone in on what happens after. I do like seeing 2 potential events inside of 10 days. We generally need multiple chances to score around here. Maybe that's about to happen. Too early to say. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 24, 2019 Share Posted January 24, 2019 Just now, Ji said: EPS snowfall mean map is 4. thats like default. next... There is a decent signal because most of it comes from those 2 threats. It’s not spread out through the 15 days. Default is 2” spread out shotgun style over 15 days with no one event having more than a few hits. That’s actually a signal it’s not going to snow at all. A snow mean map will always skew high when it’s not a good pattern because there will be a few fluke hits and 0 is the lowest the bad members can go. Alternatively in a good pattern it will skew low because the big hits can only be so big but the miss members skew down. This run implies our chances of a hit might only be 25% but the hit could be big. Take that however you want. Chances of we least some snow are higher. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 24, 2019 Share Posted January 24, 2019 @C.A.P.E. @Bob Chill subtle improvements with the WAR on the eps. Even at the end I can see how 48 hours later heights are lowering to our north and the war shifting east. It’s not a bad look. The day 8-10 period might be too good of a look. If we miss it’s provably to suppression in that setup. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 24, 2019 Share Posted January 24, 2019 Since we're throwing around weenie fantasy maps I figured I should post the biggest storm on the EPS. This one literally buries 95 and east with what looks like 30+" of snow. A 968 tucked like that with arctic air sprawled banana style all over the top of it would be a true blizzard of the likes that I've only seen in the Rockies. This has to be a front runner for the weeniest storm ever inside of 10 days. Maybe I'm missing one but a sub 970 tucked like that is mind boggling... lol ETA: it's like 40"+ and that doesn't even take ratios into consideration. LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 24, 2019 Author Share Posted January 24, 2019 Just now, Bob Chill said: Since we're throwing around weenie fantasy maps I figured I should post the biggest storm on the EPS. This one literally buries 95 and east with what looks like 30+" of snow. A 968 tucked like that with arctic air sprawled banana style all over the top of it would be a true blizzard of the likes that I've only seen in the Rockies. This has to be a front runner for the weeniest storm ever inside of 10 days. Maybe I'm missing one but a sub 970 tucked like that is mind boggling... lol maybe when you said a few weeks ago.....that the weeklies were the weeniest you ever seen...it had some merit. I love the EPS through 360 btw.... and yes..leesburg gets fringed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 24, 2019 Share Posted January 24, 2019 2 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Since we're throwing around weenie fantasy maps I figured I should post the biggest storm on the EPS. This one literally buries 95 and east with what looks like 30+" of snow. A 968 tucked like that with arctic air sprawled banana style all over the top of it would be a true blizzard of the likes that I've only seen in the Rockies. This has to be a front runner for the weeniest storm ever inside of 10 days. Maybe I'm missing one but a sub 970 tucked like that is mind boggling... lol I only get 20”. Next Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted January 24, 2019 Share Posted January 24, 2019 Just give me that storm and it can be the grand finale and I'll give this winter an A+. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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