Scraff Posted January 24, 2019 Share Posted January 24, 2019 I’m all about how much @Snowstorm5921 gets screwed. Hope he’s having fun behind “the wall”. I know I put in my $5.70 to build that s#%t. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 24, 2019 Share Posted January 24, 2019 17 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: The sweetest part is it basically all falls in 6 hours. Front blows through and we get destroyed for 6 hours. Very unconventional way to get there so extreme caution with believing it. Just enjoy the potential for now. I will have a much better opinion of this winter if I have 6"+ on the ground during the arctic blast that is coming. Totals are not really the end all of how I judge a winter. If I have a period of extreme cold AND a solid snowcover that sticks around for a while...that winter can vault up over a year that had purely better numbers. But an arctic cold shot without snow kind of feels lame and a waste and lowers a winter down my totem pole. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MD Snow Posted January 24, 2019 Share Posted January 24, 2019 2 minutes ago, Ji said: the euro takes the crankywx Feb 2-3 and shoves it east towards south florida out to bermuda.... Yeah. I still think that time period has potential though between the pna coming east a bit and the block to the north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blue Dream Posted January 24, 2019 Share Posted January 24, 2019 1 minute ago, Scraff said: I’m all about how much @Snowstorm5921 gets screwed. Hope he’s having fun behind “the wall”. I know I put in my $5.70 to build that s#%t. ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowmagnet Posted January 24, 2019 Share Posted January 24, 2019 30 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: The sweetest part is it basically all falls in 6 hours. Front blows through and we get destroyed for 6 hours. Very unconventional way to get there so extreme caution with believing it. Just enjoy the potential for now. Nice! I just need some potential. It gets me through winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted January 24, 2019 Share Posted January 24, 2019 13 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: I will have a much better opinion of this winter if I have 6"+ on the ground during the arctic blast that is coming. Totals are not really the end all of how I judge a winter. If I have a period of extreme cold AND a solid snowcover that sticks around for a while...that winter can vault up over a year that had purely better numbers. But an arctic cold shot without snow kind of feels lame and a waste and lowers a winter down my totem pole. In a way it feels like 2015 all over again, except without the jealousy of Boston and SNE. Until mid-February, it had bitter cold followed by rain, followed by more cold, and that kept going on for weeks on end. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 24, 2019 Share Posted January 24, 2019 Quick view under the hood of the 12z gefs. Pretty obvious a light event is favored over nothing or a warning level event. Significant uptick from 6z so still in windshield wiper mode. All we can do is hope for the best as it's an unconventional way things work in these parts. Nice seeing strong consensus for at least some snowfall around the 30th. I strongly agree with others saying it makes a big difference with an arctic blast with brown ground or a couple inches of snow. Even 2" would stick around a while considering it's going to be anomalously cold after the front clears. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 24, 2019 Author Share Posted January 24, 2019 1 minute ago, Bob Chill said: Quick view under the hood of the 12z gefs. Pretty obvious a light event is favored over nothing or a warning level event. Significant uptick from 6z so still in windshield wiper mode. All we can do is hope for the best as it's an unconventional way things work in these parts. Nice seeing strong consensus for at least some snowfall around the 30th. I strongly agree with others saying it makes a big difference with an arctic blast with brown ground or a couple inches of snow. Even 2" would stick around a while considering it's going to be anomalously cold after the front clears. im leaning e11 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 24, 2019 Share Posted January 24, 2019 @Bob Chill I’m a little intrigued by the Sunday/Monday weak waves. Looks like a few bites on the GEFS for a dusting at least. Wondering if that can juice up to be a 1-2” deal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 24, 2019 Share Posted January 24, 2019 1 minute ago, Ji said: im leaning e11 You being pessimistic is a good sign it's going to work. Don't break character. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted January 24, 2019 Share Posted January 24, 2019 Seems to me there are quite a few large follow up waves on the EPS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 24, 2019 Share Posted January 24, 2019 6 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: @Bob Chill I’m a little intrigued by the Sunday/Monday weak waves. Looks like a few bites on the GEFS for a dusting at least. Wondering if that can juice up to be a 1-2” deal. Not much support on the 12z eps outside of the upslope areas. However, brace yourself for a lot of talk about the follow up deal the op had. lol. Not out far enough yet but oh man is there some support for an unconventional hit... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted January 24, 2019 Share Posted January 24, 2019 Just now, Bob Chill said: Not much support on the 12z eps outside of the upslope areas. However, brace yourself for a lot of talk about the follow up deal the op had. lol. Not out far enough yet but oh man is there some support for an unconventional hit... P12..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 24, 2019 Share Posted January 24, 2019 Just now, Bob Chill said: Not much support on the 12z eps outside of the upslope areas. However, brace yourself for a lot of talk about the follow up deal the op had. lol. Not out far enough yet but oh man is there some support for an unconventional hit... Not as good as I thought looking at member surface plots. More sig rain hits than snow but a significant improvement over 0z regardless Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 24, 2019 Share Posted January 24, 2019 Looks like at least 80% of the EPS members drop at least an inch in our area. Couple warning level events but not as many as I expected looking at surface plots. Bunch of 2-4" deals including the control. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 24, 2019 Share Posted January 24, 2019 Control looks acceptable for Feb 2nd ETA: Not just the control for the 2nd-3rd. Some really big hits showing up.... heh. Inside of 10 days too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 24, 2019 Share Posted January 24, 2019 Light/mod event with the arctic front, 2-3 days of freezing our butts off, then a MECS when the PV retreats. I can get onboard with that 4 sho. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
poolz1 Posted January 24, 2019 Share Posted January 24, 2019 3 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Control looks acceptable for Feb 2nd Man! Long duration 30:1 type stuff. precip moving in with temps in the single digits. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted January 24, 2019 Share Posted January 24, 2019 49 minutes ago, Ji said: the euro takes the crankywx Feb 2-3 and shoves it east towards south florida out to bermuda.... One run, good sir...right now if there is even potential there, we have something to watch for... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 24, 2019 Share Posted January 24, 2019 Just now, WxUSAF said: Light/mod event with the arctic front, 2-3 days of freezing our butts off, then a MECS when the PV retreats. I can get onboard with that 4 sho. EPS mean h5 looks better for the d8-10 window. 50/50 on the means and confluence. Looking through the members it looks like the ones with a less extreme cold shot allow a storm to amplify and come up the coast. The ones that look like the op squash everything. Perfectly logical. I'll hedge on a less extreme cold shot because every one this season has muted as leads shorten. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted January 24, 2019 Share Posted January 24, 2019 56 minutes ago, AfewUniversesBelowNormal said: Look at this. Someone said yesterday Minneapolis had it's lowest 850mb temperature on record on the 18z GFS with -42c breaching the USA. This might be top 5 too. (It's duality to todays Feb 21, 2018 ridge lol) I started talking about this 1/14 in the closed Jan med /long range thread. That air is still coming and the -42 850s is 1982,85,94 stuff and is following the typical trajectory of nw-se and across the lakes and over us. It does not push far south and then roll over onto us, it’s a direct shot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted January 24, 2019 Share Posted January 24, 2019 3 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: EPS mean h5 looks better for the d8-10 window. 50/50 on the means and confluence. Looking through the members it looks like the ones with a less extreme cold shot allow a storm to amplify and come up the coast. The ones that look like the op squash everything. Perfectly logical. I'll hedge on a less extreme cold shot because every one this season has muted as leads shorten. Yeah the cold shots always seem to be overstated at range, so I like where we are there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 24, 2019 Share Posted January 24, 2019 3 minutes ago, losetoa6 said: Day 9 control is sweet Drops 2' in the bullseye on DC. lol. Yea, that would work. Everyone gets 20"+ or so. Especially because it's a 10-1 map and the storm blasts right into arctic air. All we can do is dream right now. I do like seeing 2 chances inside of 10 days though. I'm totally burnt on d10-15 this year. Maybe we'll be too busy to care about it coming up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted January 24, 2019 Share Posted January 24, 2019 Mood should improve in here for the next few hours. That control run is pretty sweet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 24, 2019 Share Posted January 24, 2019 12 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Looks like at least 80% of the EPS members drop at least an inch in our area. Couple warning level events but not as many as I expected looking at surface plots. Bunch of 2-4" deals including the control. Keep in mind some of those 2-4” are really 4-8 with ratios. That’s what the op actually was. Problem with the super amped bomb idea is it can happen but it’s really rare. A trailing vort bombing on an arctic front. I think 1888 was like that. But it’s such a narrow window. The heavy snow tends to be a narrow swath west of the frontal boundary. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 24, 2019 Share Posted January 24, 2019 Just now, losetoa6 said: Did you see how it does it ...post above ..epic It wasn't by itself either. Not a ton of support but at quick glance it looks like at least 10 members hit us pretty decent in that window. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AfewUniversesBelowNormal Posted January 24, 2019 Share Posted January 24, 2019 7 minutes ago, WEATHER53 said: I started talking about this 1/14 in the closed Jan med /long range thread. That air is still coming and the -42 850s is 1982,85,94 stuff and is following the typical trajectory of nw-se and across the lakes and over us. It does not push far south and then roll over onto us, it’s a direct shot. The SE ridge is still unusually strong for the situation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaydreb Posted January 24, 2019 Share Posted January 24, 2019 Enjoy for 12 hours! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MD Snow Posted January 24, 2019 Share Posted January 24, 2019 Just now, nj2va said: Mood should improve in here for the next few hours. That control run is pretty sweet. Yeah, all week some mets on social media etc have been talking about how we needed to get today's storm out of the way in order to get a better picture of what next week has to offer. So far i'm liking what next week is starting to offer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 24, 2019 Share Posted January 24, 2019 4 minutes ago, losetoa6 said: Did you see how it does it ...post above ..epic Yea, it's fookin epic even if fantasy. Comes out of the south in 2 waves and takes 48 hours to finish destroying us. A little bit like PD2... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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