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January/February Winter Storm Threat Tracker


Ji

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Just now, psuhoffman said:

good result, crazy convoluted way it gets there though.  Not the kind of thing that will stick on guidance consistently from that range.  But it's showing up on enough guidance that it certainly can't be ruled out.  

GEFS had a number of similar solutions. Way more than noise inside the members. Obviously it's a complicated way to get there. Inside of 7 days and things improving is never a bad thing...

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Just now, Bob Chill said:

Need some positive digital fantasy snow to change the negative energy. I present you with this kuchera panel. Enjoy it for 12 hours. 

lbbvDOO.jpg

At least in knows the Leesburg, Moco, Hoco death band will park.

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Just now, snowmagnet said:

You are the best!   That’s a digital 10”-12”  IMBY.  Thank you!

The sweetest part is it basically all falls in 6 hours. Front blows through and we get destroyed for 6 hours. Very unconventional way to get there so extreme caution with believing it. Just enjoy the potential for now. 

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1 minute ago, Ji said:

lol is that like a 30:1 ratio?

It's like 20:1. lol. 850s crash to -15C to -20C as the wave runs through it. 2M temps go from the upper 30's - mid 40's into the upper teens. lol. This run is loaded to the gills with red flags but we can have some fun with it for now. This place has been depressing and I don't even understand why. I mean I get it that we're not in a perfect pattern but it's not anything like mid-late Dec or a raging SE ridge or all the other ways things can be a disaster. 

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Just now, Bob Chill said:

It's like 20:1. lol. 850s crash to -15C to -20C as the wave runs through it. 2M temps go from the upper 30's - mid 40's into the upper teens. lol. This run is loaded to the gills with red flags but we can have some fun with it for now. This place has been depressing and I don't even understand why. I mean I get it that we're not in a perfect pattern but it's not anything like mid-late Dec or a raging SE ridge or all the other ways things can be a disaster. 

I think its depressing honestly because of the false alarms of the weeklies. I remember a few weeks ago you said the weekliies were the weeniest you had ever seen in your life. There was so much build up that anything less than epic wasnt good enough. And now that we are here, we arent seeing much to get excited. PSU has one nail in the coffin...etc. We were led astray(our own doing but still)

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10 minutes ago, JMcCaughey42 said:

Damn, why did SE PA get shafted?  Don't have access to the Euro

Trough goes negative and the trailing low tucks into NY. Extreme gradient solution and extremely unlikely to verify. Fun to look at though and it's not like it's day 10 either. My total guess if it works at all is a nice stripe of 2-4" through the mid atlantic and potential for a bigger hit in the interior NE or even SNE. Trailing waves typically never materialize though. This one is interesting with the TPV dropping in creating an extreme gradient with moisture zipping northward from the deep south. I'm intrigued but my expectations are a light event at best or a redux of today at worst. 

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2 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

Trough goes negative and the trailing low tucks into NY. Extreme gradient solution and extremely unlikely to verify. Fun to look at though and it's not like it's day 10 either. My total guess if it works at all is a nice stripe of 2-4" through the mid atlantic and potential for a bigger hit in the interior NE or even SNE. Trailing waves typically never materialize though. This one is interesting with the TPV dropping in creating an extreme gradient with moisture zipping northward from the deep south. I'm intrigued but my expectations are a light event at best or a redux of today at worst. 

Thanks for the reply!  Hoping we all get hit in the MA soon

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4 minutes ago, Ji said:

I think its depressing honestly because of the false alarms of the weeklies. I remember a few weeks ago you said the weekliies were the weeniest you had ever seen in your life. There was so much build up that anything less than epic wasnt good enough. And now that we are here, we arent seeing much to get excited. PSU has one nail in the coffin...etc. We were led astray(our own doing but still)

I think it's way too early to write that off. Global ops/ens have been terrible with every pattern change. Our good event looked like a nightmare when it was in the long range. The pattern change actually sped up and things worked. I really think that a legit pattern can setup inside of 10 days here and not go away for a while. It's just a gut hunch. I'm not saying I think anything is a lock. Just that it wouldn't come as any surprise to me if something similar to the weeklies is in place here inside of 2 weeks. Just gotta let it play out and not worry about anything beyond a week or so.  

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