January/February Winter Storm Threat Tracker

[MD Snow]

GEM has a follow up wave at hr 162 that gets some light snow into the area. GFS has rain changing to snow at hr 144 and 150. Icon had it at the same time as well.   

[LP08]

Gfs keeps the same look as 18z with a little more precip.  Not much rain before temps crash.  Rain to powder.

[yoda]

2 minutes ago, LP08 said:

Gfs keeps the same look as 18z with a little more precip.  Not much rain before temps crash.  Rain to powder.

I wish the 2 to 4 inches shown on the snow map were believable... as well as the ICON which showed 2 to 3 inches

[LP08]

Just now, yoda said:

I wish the 2 to 4 inches shown on the snow map were believable 

Believable until at least 6z, right?  Hah

[MD Snow]

Just now, yoda said:

I wish the 2 to 4 inches shown on the snow map were believable 

Everyone's been saying that we need to get the current storm out of the way in order to get a clearer view of what next week looks like. Next week has looked like it had opportunity for like week it just hasn't had any run to run threat consistency. Hopefully this is the start of something. 

[yoda]

3 minutes ago, MD Snow said:

GEM has a follow up wave at hr 162 that gets some light snow into the area. GFS has rain changing to snow at hr 144 and 150. Icon had it at the same time as well.   

GGEM actually is an i95 and east hit lol... better in SE VA

[MD Snow]

1 minute ago, yoda said:

GGEM actually is an i95 and east hit lol... better in SE VA

3 for 3 with the globals so far tonight for the 30th threat. I'll take it and hope it continues. 

[MD Snow]

0z FV3 is on board as well.

 

[jaydreb]

Wow, some serious cold forecasted for next week on the GFS.   Probably won’t verify.  

[WEATHER53]

-42 850s is 1982,85,94 stuff.

[yoda]

6 minutes ago, jaydreb said:

Wow, some serious cold forecasted for next week on the GFS.   Probably won’t verify.  

High temps of 5 to 15 across the region for next Thursday

[WEATHER53]

These epic cold winter shots have been coming up in convo and analogs since fall.  We know it can happen. Nothing like 10 degrees at 1pm on a sunny day or snowy one. 

[wxdude64]

2 hours ago, EastCoast NPZ said:

1987

Yes

[Bob Chill]

24 minutes ago, yoda said:

I wish the 2 to 4 inches shown on the snow map were believable... as well as the ICON which showed 2 to 3 inches

 

Any outcome is believable. Goal posts are still wide open though. Ens spread shows anything from zero precip to an inch. Snow spread is zero to 9". Biggest qpf solution is mostly rain. I'd say anything is possible. Nearly every eps and gefs member does have at least .1" qpf. That's encouraging because plenty of cold air around next week. This is the best shot at seeing snow fall since the light event last week if that means anything.

Ops tonight all show a similar thing but it's still a ways out in time. If you zoom out and loop h5 vort panel the shortwave that might drop some snow is still west of the aleutians. And it's 3rd or 4th in line with northern stream shortwaves. Lol. A lot has to happen before it gets here. All we can do is hope for the best.

[Bob Chill]

2 hours ago, EastCoast NPZ said:

1987

Ah, how can i forget. I was a senior in HS. Bumper skiing, drinking beer, and night sledding at Strathmore with a 55 gallon drum fireplace for days. Times have sure changed. Now i would get arrested 3 times for doing that. 

[psuhoffman]

Eps is kinda on board with a day 8-10 threat. Some hits. Some misses to the south. Actually a miss or a fringe to the south might be the favored solution right now on the eps.  Given the trend lately I’m ok with that look right now. 

[Ji]

Eps is kinda on board with a day 8-10 threat. Some hits. Some misses to the south. Actually a miss or a fringe to the south might be the favored solution right now on the eps.  Given the trend lately I’m ok with that look right now. 

Eps looks better than woeful op

[Ji]

Ah, how can i forget. I was a senior in HS. Bumper skiing, drinking beer, and night sledding at Strathmore with a 55 gallon drum fireplace for days. Times have sure changed. Now i would get arrested 3 times for doing that. 

Your from the I had a crush on Kelly krakowski generation!

[psuhoffman]

Just now, Ji said:

9 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Eps is kinda on board with a day 8-10 threat. Some hits. Some misses to the south. Actually a miss or a fringe to the south might be the favored solution right now on the eps.  Given the trend lately I’m ok with that look right now. 

Eps looks better than woeful op

Control has a major coastal day 8-9. Fringes you and me with like 5” and crushes 95 east. 

[Ji]

Control has a major coastal day 8-9. Fringes you and me with like 5” and crushes 95 east. 

Cool cause Op looked like it was coming with a rainstorm. Day 16 builds the western ridge again but Atlantic still sucks. Always a war

[psuhoffman]

7 minutes ago, Ji said:

Cool cause Op looked like it was coming with a rainstorm. Day 16 builds the western ridge again but Atlantic still sucks. Always a war

I just posted that in the other thread. At least there is no total pattern meltdown BUT if we don’t get a true NAO block I don’t see this working. The epo ridge there is still too far west to do it alone. We need an NAO block to help get rid of the WAR and then that split flow look out west becomes ideal. Without it the pac jet undercutting the epo will cause enough ridging along the east coast to continue the trend of cutters.  But guidance keeps delaying the NAO flip so I have my doubts. Others are trying to find ways to win without the NAO because I think they have the same  doubts it ever truly develops but I have even more doubts that the pna ever really helps much. 

[Ralph Wiggum]

Not the worst look:

 

[eurojosh]

I'd call the 6z suite a 'mitigated disaster'. Which is a two letter improvement from the last few runs.

[showmethesnow]

For those wondering how we get this...

 

from this. 

 

 

The precip we are seeing through our area is being driven from the lower levels with very little upper level support.

Below we have the 850's. Notice we have a trough at 850's running through the region with energy running through it.

 

This trough is reflected somewhat at 700 mbs.

 

Now what we are seeing at 850s is we are getting very good lift with the frontal passage. This taken alone would probably imply a quick squally deluge of rain with little to no flip over to snow as the moisture feed shuts off rapidly as the cold moves in. 

 

But when you add what we are seeing at 700s. Notice we are seeing very good lift behind the 850s. What this setup is doing is allowing the warmer moisture air being lifted by the frontal passage to be transported back over top the cold as it sees even more lift at 700s to the west.

 

Typically we fail big time when it comes to waiting for a flip over as the cold moves in. But as depicted now on the GFS this is a workable solution. One thing I would like to see though is a little less separation between the the best lift at 850's and 700's but beggars can't be choosers. This setup could be somewhat dynamic as well with a quick 1-2, 2-4 inches falling within an hour or two and a clap of thunder could not be ruled out. 

 

Now for those looking for a little more then what the GFS is delivering now, maybe keep an eye on the 850s at 1 1/2 to 2 days earlier. Right now the GFS shows the trough moving out of the Rockies with NS energy/closed low to its north. At this point the NS energy is a little ahead of the trough and dumps little to no energy into it. But slow that feature down somewhat and a little more dig as to where it can dump some energy into that feature and you have the possibility of something spinning up on the tail end of the front as it moves through our region. At this point though the GFS is very luke warm to that idea.

 

 

One last comment. Though the models aren't really throwing up anything of consequence at this point I wouldn't dismiss the possibility. Especially with the initial drop of the p[v and when it withdraws. It is a very fluid setup with a good deal of energy running through all the levels of the atmosphere with extreme temperature contrasts present. Just a change here or there could make a world of difference and changes should be expected. 

 

[LP08]

FV3 shows the clipper hitting us but still going North of the area. First run I’ve seen not relying on the artic front to get snow.  As @losetoa6 mentioned yesterday, there are so many SWs flying around, could be very active through 10 days.

[poolz1]

3 hours ago, psuhoffman said:

Control has a major coastal day 8-9. Fringes you and me with like 5” and crushes 95 east. 

I'll take a fringed solution like this....temps in the single digits in the afternoon with snow falling!  Would be a first for me....

[winterymix]

39 minutes ago, showmethesnow said:

For those wondering how we get this...

 

 

from this. 

 

 

The precip we are seeing through our area is being driven from the lower levels with very little upper level support.

Below we have the 850's. Notice we have a trough at 850's running through the region with energy running through it.

 

 

This trough is reflected somewhat at 700 mbs.

 

 

Now what we are seeing at 850s is we are getting very good lift with the frontal passage. This taken alone would probably imply a quick squally deluge of rain with little to no flip over to snow as the moisture feed shuts off rapidly as the cold moves in. 

...

 

Typically we fail big time when it comes to waiting for a flip over as the cold moves in. But as depicted now on the GFS this is a workable solution. One thing I would like to see though is a little less separation between the the best lift at 850's and 700's but beggars can't be choosers. This setup could be somewhat dynamic as well with a quick 1-2, 2-4 inches falling within an hour or two and a clap of thunder could not be ruled out...

 

 

 

One last comment. Though the models aren't really throwing up anything of consequence at this point I wouldn't dismiss the possibility. Especially with the initial drop of the p[v and when it withdraws. It is a very fluid setup with a good deal of energy running through all the levels of the atmosphere with extreme temperature contrasts present. Just a change here or there could make a world of difference and changes should be expected. 

 

Hard wrk, good post.  Less talk of K-U, less talk of phasing, more talk of glancing blows with fair amount of cold. This is how you get to Climo slowly!

 

[tombo82685]

1 hour ago, showmethesnow said:

For those wondering how we get this...

 

 

from this. 

 

 

 

The precip we are seeing through our area is being driven from the lower levels with very little upper level support.

Below we have the 850's. Notice we have a trough at 850's running through the region with energy running through it.

 

 

This trough is reflected somewhat at 700 mbs.

 

 

Now what we are seeing at 850s is we are getting very good lift with the frontal passage. This taken alone would probably imply a quick squally deluge of rain with little to no flip over to snow as the moisture feed shuts off rapidly as the cold moves in. 

 

 

But when you add what we are seeing at 700s. Notice we are seeing very good lift behind the 850s. What this setup is doing is allowing the warmer moisture air being lifted by the frontal passage to be transported back over top the cold as it sees even more lift at 700s to the west.

 

 

Typically we fail big time when it comes to waiting for a flip over as the cold moves in. But as depicted now on the GFS this is a workable solution. One thing I would like to see though is a little less separation between the the best lift at 850's and 700's but beggars can't be choosers. This setup could be somewhat dynamic as well with a quick 1-2, 2-4 inches falling within an hour or two and a clap of thunder could not be ruled out. 

 

Now for those looking for a little more then what the GFS is delivering now, maybe keep an eye on the 850s at 1 1/2 to 2 days earlier. Right now the GFS shows the trough moving out of the Rockies with NS energy/closed low to its north. At this point the NS energy is a little ahead of the trough and dumps little to no energy into it. But slow that feature down somewhat and a little more dig as to where it can dump some energy into that feature and you have the possibility of something spinning up on the tail end of the front as it moves through our region. At this point though the GFS is very luke warm to that idea.

 

 

 

One last comment. Though the models aren't really throwing up anything of consequence at this point I wouldn't dismiss the possibility. Especially with the initial drop of the p[v and when it withdraws. It is a very fluid setup with a good deal of energy running through all the levels of the atmosphere with extreme temperature contrasts present. Just a change here or there could make a world of difference and changes should be expected. 

 

Nice post. That wave on the front is actually energy from the s/w that delivers a snow storm to the lakes. You can track it. This was from 18z gfs yesterday. 

Gfs shows how you can possibly get something middle of next week, albeit not a blockbuster. So we have our northern stream s/w diving down through canada

Then that same s/w splits into 2.

One piece of energy takes the northern route and delivers a snow storm to the lakes. While the other piece of energy dives down into the south. 

that southern piece of energy then gets stretched out along the arctic front. As of now, the energy isn't that consolidated so it's not a big qpf producer but it's something to watch down the road. If we get a stronger piece of energy along that front then it could develop an area of low pressure along the front to bring a few inches of powder.

 

[Kmlwx]

This looks closer to a severe t'storm threat than a winter storm for us

[Jandurin]

Having March early this year