January/February Winter Storm Threat Tracker

[psuhoffman]

4 minutes ago, Ji said:

we would of been better off not having this PV split. We have not seen cold from it...we have not seen snow from it except for a fluke that gave you flurries. What has it given us? The split occured in late December and January has been warm. The next 10 days are gonna be cold but we get some cold every winter no matter what.

 

I

I generally agree. I don’t like to deal in absolutes since I cannot fully predict how things would have evolved minis the sswe but it does seem the split parked that tpv right over Canada and it’s been pinwheeling around bouncing every attempt to tank the NAO.  Seasonal guidance looked great before the sswe showed up so I was never in the “we need an sswe” camp. 

And from range even without an NAO this epo pattern could have worked IF the epo was centered further east and the tpv was rotating around a bit southeast of where it set up shop. But it’s pretty obvious to me what the base state of those 2 features are now and neither is right. The NAO is the one wildcard that could change this. Weaken the tpv and allow the NAO to tank and that epo alignment becomes perfect. We want storms to try to cut if we have blocking. Maybe the reshuffle helps. If the tpv splits and what’s left is weaker we might get real blocking in Feb. before that I could see a threat around Feb 1-5 as the tpv splits and a piece floats through the 50/50 region. There is a transient window of opportunity there. After that we can hope things reload in a better configuration. 

[psuhoffman]

12 minutes ago, WEATHER53 said:

Too many unproven indexes used and offered as the savior or the destructor. After being lambasted about my “10 days away” commentary which I began around Christmas, I have turned out to be exactly right. MJO and SSW and NAO either in tandem or cherry picked are simply unproven as to outcomes for our area.

Agree on the sswe. We haven’t had a real NAO so not sure what you mean there. Mjo has been an excellent predictor of the pattern this year so disagree there. 

[psuhoffman]

8 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

I know it's really hard to imagine given their impeccable track record d5+ but there's always a slim possibility the models aren't accurate. 

Agree...it will probably cut more than it shows now. 

[psuhoffman]

3 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

I have zero anger whatsoever. I'll spell it our clearly for you though. You apparently 1) lack reading comprehension skills 2) enjoy being somewhere where not a single person enjoys your company 3) don't have an ounce of common courtesy or respect 4) contribute absolutely nothing on a daily basis 5) really want to be banned for some reason

I think we need to get everyone to put him on ignore. He is doing this on purpose. It’s obvious. Arguing with him is pointless. He knows he is being as a$$ and annoying everyone. By replying he gets the attention he wants. If everyone just adds him to ignore it will stop. 

[Bob Chill]

4 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Agree...it will probably cut more than it shows now. 

Entirely possible

[psuhoffman]

2 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

Entirely possible

I do think there is a legit opportunity around day 9-12 as the tpv relaxes but I’m pretty bummed that what looked like a good pattern turned into 2 weeks of cutters and 1 fairly mediocre threat window before a probably relax.

I know some are still holding out hope because cold is around but I’ve seen this pattern. It’s cold dry warm wet. Imo the pattern didn’t go from good at range to ok. It went from good to slightly less than total crap.  As soon as I saw that the tpv was going to interfere with the NAO I had a sinking feeling because this isn’t the kind of look that we can work with absent blocking. The blocking is what made this whole setup work imo.  We probably accidentally see some flakes in the next 10 days just from cold being around but the chances of a big snowstorm here are very very low from what I see.  Then if we get lucky to time up a system exactly as the TPV retreats maybe but it’s going to be a really short window.   

 

 

[Bob Chill]

1 minute ago, psuhoffman said:

I do think there is a legit opportunity around day 9-12 as the tpv relaxes but I’m pretty bummed that what looked like a good pattern turned into 2 weeks of cutters and 1 fairly mediocre threat window before a probably relax.

I know some are still holding out hope because cold is around but I’ve seen this pattern. It’s cold dry warm wet. Imo the pattern didn’t go from good at range to ok. It went from good to slightly less than total crap.  As soon as I saw that the tpv was going to interfere with the NAO I had a sinking feeling because this isn’t the kind of look that we can work with absent blocking. The blocking is what made this whole setup work imo.  We probably accidentally see some flakes in the next 10 days just from cold being around but the chances of a big snowstorm here are very very low from what I see.  Then if we get lucky to time up a system exactly as the TPV retreats maybe but it’s going to be a really short window.   

 

 

I'm not bummed at all. If like what happens in some other years  when it snows all around us while we struggle then it would bother me more. It's really clear this year that it doesn't want to come together for the east coast in general. It happens sometimes. There's plenty years through history where the coastal areas of the east coast just don't get a lucky draw out of the hat. Is what it is. There's time for a reversal but I'm not holding my breath. I'm sure we'll get some more snowfall this year though. I need 7" to hit climo and my yard will probably find a way to hit that even if in modest pieces. Of course I'm not making any calls and saying we don't go on a trophy run. I'm not expecting it and I'm good with whatever happens. 

[Ji]

7 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

I do think there is a legit opportunity around day 9-12 as the tpv relaxes but I’m pretty bummed that what looked like a good pattern turned into 2 weeks of cutters and 1 fairly mediocre threat window before a probably relax.

I know some are still holding out hope because cold is around but I’ve seen this pattern. It’s cold dry warm wet. Imo the pattern didn’t go from good at range to ok. It went from good to slightly less than total crap.  As soon as I saw that the tpv was going to interfere with the NAO I had a sinking feeling because this isn’t the kind of look that we can work with absent blocking. The blocking is what made this whole setup work imo.  We probably accidentally see some flakes in the next 10 days just from cold being around but the chances of a big snowstorm here are very very low from what I see.  Then if we get lucky to time up a system exactly as the TPV retreats maybe but it’s going to be a really short window.   

 

 

to make things worse...the SOI actually went up yesterday lol

https://www.longpaddock.qld.gov.au/soi/

[frd]

29 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

@frd they are just confirming what we were talking about earlier that the tpv where it is is destructive to our chances at an NAO. Now they are going further and linking causality to the sswe. Ain’t that the kick in the nads. So the sswe didn’t save us it killed our epic pattern!  

I don’t actually know. I’m not going to pretend to say the sswe is why the tpv is there, they are the “experts” but I do know it being there is killing our chances at meaningful blocking and the epo ridge is not centered in a good location for us absent blocking. That one fail changed “epic” to “serviceable” at best. 

Yes they are saying the tpv had been a thorn .  I see what your saying about the way it split and such , I think Jason is mentioning that as well. 

I have not seen comments about this outside of you and Amy Butler.  ( thats funny right you are in good company with a Phd )  

I did share what Ventrice wrote and he stated a split like that results is a delayed NAO , it will arriive but not as quickly.   

Isotherm, and a host of strat guys, John Honenuk,etc, I could name 20 of them have not said the SSWE has messed up the NAO.  But, of course maybe I missed that or they have not seen a need to post about it because they share a different view.

Certainly we can get a very negative AO from the SSWE, and they stated just that . 

And normally you get a -NAO with a -AO but not at all times. 

I know HM stated there will be additionaloppurtunities to force it negative later. 

Of course there is the possibilty as well it comes on suddenly and unannouced , who really knows.  The atmosphere may be willing to go more -NAO after the shake up next week. 

The second and third weeks of Feb are a classic time for it to happen . 

If indeed the downwell effects breach the trop on or near Jan 30 to Feb 1 I look for a severe -AO drop and maybe it triggers a -NAO or we get a good pattern even without the full participation of a -NAO.  Ilove to hear @Isotherm take on this NAO messed up by the SSWE.

I do know Tom  has stated the PAC. tropical forcing has rendered it more difficult for the SSWE to deliver snowier outcomes  ( interference, etc )  but I think he is hopeful due to a slew of changes with the MJO, AAM, GWO, jet retraction that things will turn better. 

  

 

   

[Bob Chill]

I will say it one last time though... I think there's too much confidence in things going to hell in the med/long range. I'm very skeptical of a fall to pieces progression. I'll go on record and say that I expect the "disaster" d10-15 to go through a series of small changes every day and end up being fine. And I'm not ruling out a really rock solid pattern showing up at any point in the next 2-4 weeks. Maybe less than 2. 

[Ji]

I'm not bummed at all. If like what happens in some other years  when it snows all around us while we struggle then it would bother me more. It's really clear this year that it doesn't want to come together for the east coast in general. It happens sometimes. There's plenty years through history where the coastal areas of the east coast just don't get a lucky draw out of the hat. Is what it is. There's time for a reversal but I'm not holding my breath. I'm sure we'll get some more snowfall this year though. I need 7" to hit climo and my yard will probably find a way to hit that even if in modest pieces. Of course I'm not making any calls and saying we don't go on a trophy run. I'm not expecting it and I'm good with whatever happens. 

You should be bummed considering all the time you invest in this hobby

[Bob Chill]

Just now, Ji said:

9 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

I'm not bummed at all. If like what happens in some other years  when it snows all around us while we struggle then it would bother me more. It's really clear this year that it doesn't want to come together for the east coast in general. It happens sometimes. There's plenty years through history where the coastal areas of the east coast just don't get a lucky draw out of the hat. Is what it is. There's time for a reversal but I'm not holding my breath. I'm sure we'll get some more snowfall this year though. I need 7" to hit climo and my yard will probably find a way to hit that even if in modest pieces. Of course I'm not making any calls and saying we don't go on a trophy run. I'm not expecting it and I'm good with whatever happens. 

You should be bummed considering all the time you invest in this hobby

Nah, I'm a lifetime fisherman. I'll always enjoy "the hunt" and be reasonable that sometimes it doesn't work out. Once I get to late Feb thoughts of getting outside and going fishing flood my brain and I completely stop caring about winter. Chasing snow in the winter is more of an exercise in passing time than getting stressed over something I can't control. Snow has only gotten to me twice. Boxing day and March 13 were the only 2 times where it legitimately affected my mood/emotions. If you're not used to getting screwed with the snowfall living here then you either 1) take it too seriously or 2) haven't lived here that long

[psuhoffman]

11 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

I'm not bummed at all. If like what happens in some other years  when it snows all around us while we struggle then it would bother me more. It's really clear this year that it doesn't want to come together for the east coast in general. It happens sometimes. There's plenty years through history where the coastal areas of the east coast just don't get a lucky draw out of the hat. Is what it is. There's time for a reversal but I'm not holding my breath. I'm sure we'll get some more snowfall this year though. I need 7" to hit climo and my yard will probably find a way to hit that even if in modest pieces. Of course I'm not making any calls and saying we don't go on a trophy run. I'm not expecting it and I'm good with whatever happens. 

I think the prospect of a fail the rest of the way is harder to stomach for the northern members that missed the last storm. For you a fail the rest of the year leaves this as a mediocre year. If I fail the rest of the way....well I’ll put it this way I could get 8” the rest of the way and it would still be the worst winter ever of my 14 up here.  So we are operating from very different perspectives probably. 

[Bob Chill]

8 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

I will say it one last time though... I think there's too much confidence in things going to hell in the med/long range. I'm very skeptical of a fall to pieces progression. I'll go on record and say that I expect the "disaster" d10-15 to go through a series of small changes every day and end up being fine. And I'm not ruling out a really rock solid pattern showing up at any point in the next 2-4 weeks. Maybe less than 2. 

lol- and just like that the EPS never goes to pieces and has an aleutian trough/+PNA at the end. I wonder how much more it can change in 10 days. 

[psuhoffman]

1 minute ago, Bob Chill said:

lol- and just like that the EPS never goes to pieces and has an aleutian trough/+PNA at the end. I wonder how much more it can change in 10 days. 

Lol you are on a roll

[Ji]

4 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

Nah, I'm a lifetime fisherman. I'll always enjoy "the hunt" and be reasonable that sometimes it doesn't work out. Once I get to late Feb thoughts of getting outside and going fishing flood my brain and I completely stop caring about winter. Chasing snow in the winter is more of an exercise in passing time than getting stressed over something I can't control. Snow has only gotten to me twice. Boxing day and March 13 were the only 2 times where it legitimately affected my mood/emotions. If you're not used to getting screwed with the snowfall living here then you either 1) take it too seriously or 2) haven't lived here that long

well fisherman usually come up empty....so thats probably why your personality is really good for the peaks and valley of DC winters

[psuhoffman]

9 minutes ago, Ji said:

18 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

I'm not bummed at all. If like what happens in some other years  when it snows all around us while we struggle then it would bother me more. It's really clear this year that it doesn't want to come together for the east coast in general. It happens sometimes. There's plenty years through history where the coastal areas of the east coast just don't get a lucky draw out of the hat. Is what it is. There's time for a reversal but I'm not holding my breath. I'm sure we'll get some more snowfall this year though. I need 7" to hit climo and my yard will probably find a way to hit that even if in modest pieces. Of course I'm not making any calls and saying we don't go on a trophy run. I'm not expecting it and I'm good with whatever happens. 

You should be bummed considering all the time you invest in this hobby

I’m not bummed by the weather actually. It will snow again.  Im bummed that for once I put a lot into a long range forecast, it’s not something I usually bother much with, and I felt pretty good about it, and it was going pretty much according to plan and then to see it fall apart!  That’s frustrating. And the results won’t matter the progression was not the way I predicted so I was wrong. Unless this thing really dies just flip on a dime and roll into an epic NAO block I’m not going to claim some bootleg win if we fluke our way to snow with a positive NAO. I hate that BS. This is a humbling hobby that’s for sure!

[Bob Chill]

2 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Lol you are on a roll

Will you feel better if you knock down your first 6-10" storm inside of 15 days?

[Ji]

Just now, psuhoffman said:

I’m not bummed by the weather actually. It will snow again.  Im bummed that for once I put a lot into a long range forecast, it’s not something I usually bother much with, and I felt pretty good about it, and it was going pretty much according to plan and then to see it fall apart!  That’s frustrating. And the results won’t matter the progression was not the way I predicted so I was wrong. Unless this thing really dies just flip on a dime and roll into an epic NAO block I’m not going to claim some bootleg win if we fluke our way to snow with a positive NAO. I hate that BS. This is a humbling hobby that’s for sure!

you just saw 2 feet at Killington.....if i drive to see snow, i add that to my yearly total. I used to go to Elimira, NY alot when i was single so even in crappy winters...i would end up with above average snow. I count snow by how much i see...not how much falls in my backyard

[Bob Chill]

Just now, psuhoffman said:

I’m not bummed by the weather actually. It will snow again.  Im bummed that for once I put a lot into a long range forecast, it’s not something I usually bother much with, and I felt pretty good about it, and it was going pretty much according to plan and then to see it fall apart!  That’s frustrating. And the results won’t matter the progression was not the way I predicted so I was wrong. Unless this thing really dies just flip on a dime and roll into an epic NAO block I’m not going to claim some bootleg win if we fluke our way to snow with a positive NAO. I hate that BS. This is a humbling hobby that’s for sure!

Are you saying you no longer think the really nice blocked pattern is possible? I just think there's too much jumping to fast conclusions right now. Maybe the models have it right but just a week too fast. Maybe we're staring down the gun of a big storm setup before Feb 1st. Maybe a disaster is on the way but I really doubt it. More than I've doubted anything this winter honestly. 

[psuhoffman]

@frd I think there is more too it. It’s never all one variable. I think the sswe was a major factor in the tpv being around there. But the pacific forcing placing the epo ridge where it was impacted it’s exact location also. So to say the sswe alone screwed us is a stretch imo. I was being partly tongue in cheek there. But it in combination with other variables did us no favors so far. I would rather no tpv at all then that wrecking ball amplifying the flow to our north.  

[psuhoffman]

5 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

Will you feel better if you knock down your first 6-10" storm inside of 15 days?

If I get 6” and hold it for a few days I’ll be in a significantly better mood yea. I can try to be as analytical as I want but in the end I’m the biggest snow weenie there is and am just as irrationally affected by frozen water on my lawn as the rest of you. 

[Maestrobjwa]

2 minutes ago, Ji said:

If you're not used to getting screwed with the snowfall living here then you either 1) take it too seriously or 2) haven't lived here that long

I'll add one to that:                     3) you haven't been tracking for very long

See, this has been the cause of frustration for me...not knowing HOW we fail if we do. When ya don't track, you have no point of reference--and you don't really know how what storms could've hit had it not been for one factor or the other (you just hear the local forecasts say "we're watching this" or "this shouldn't be a big deal now".)

[psuhoffman]

8 minutes ago, Ji said:

you just saw 2 feet at Killington.....if i drive to see snow, i add that to my yearly total. I used to go to Elimira, NY alot when i was single so even in crappy winters...i would end up with above average snow. I count snow by how much i see...not how much falls in my backyard

Lol I don’t but I just explained that my frustration is equal parts my own personal failure here. But some snowpack on my lawn would go a long way to lessening the pain!  

Visited snow doesn’t replace snow on my lawn. It helps but not the same. But I’m ok really. Frustrated something I put a lot of time and energy into might have fallen apart but I’m not like distraught or pulling my hair out. 

[Maestrobjwa]

3 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Lol I don’t but I just explained that my frustration is equal parts my own personal failure here. But some snowpack on my lawn would go a long way to lessening the pain!  

Visited snow doesn’t replace snow on my lawn. It helps but not the same. But I’m ok really. Frustrated something I put a lot of time and energy into might have fallen apart but I’m not like distraught or pulling my hair out. 

And when you've suggested I just take a trip to see snow...that has been my thinking exactly! It ain't the same! I don't know...something about the prospect of visited snow just doesn't quite hit the spot (although I've never tried--but I can't imagine it's the same, lol)

[Maestrobjwa]

15 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

@frd I think there is more too it. It’s never all one variable. I think the sswe was a major factor in the tpv being around there. But the pacific forcing placing the epo ridge where it was impacted it’s exact location also. So to say the sswe alone screwed us is a stretch imo. I was being partly tongue in cheek there. But it in combination with other variables did us no favors so far. I would rather no tpv at all then that wrecking ball amplifying the flow to our north.  

I was gonna ask...Is there anything unique about our struggles this winter compared to other winters where we've struggled? I've been wondering why this winter seems to have baffled even some of the best meteorological minds around! 

[psuhoffman]

14 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

Are you saying you no longer think the really nice blocked pattern is possible? I just think there's too much jumping to fast conclusions right now. Maybe the models have it right but just a week too fast. Maybe we're staring down the gun of a big storm setup before Feb 1st. Maybe a disaster is on the way but I really doubt it. More than I've doubted anything this winter honestly. 

No... I’m saying that I’m running out of time for me to claim any kind of victory on that. I said the flip would be mid to late January. My target was around the 15-20th. If it happens in Feb I’m not going to claim some BS win. The only way my idea had merit would be if the idea of a relax never happens and we just roll right into a snowy period. 

Do I think we could still get this right yes. Am I as confident as I was a week ago no. 

[mappy]

FYI: if you decide to reply to snowstorm6576851684651 and its not some sort of counter to his post (meaning you are being nice and pointing out to him how he is incorrect), we are dumping your posts too. 

[Bob Chill]

28 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

I was gonna ask...Is there anything unique about our struggles this winter compared to other winters where we've struggled? I've been wondering why this winter seems to have baffled even some of the best meteorological minds around! 

This winter is actually much better than some of our previous struggles. Sometimes there's a legitimate snowhole right over DC-Balt and the suburbs while every.single.area. to our north south east or west gets pummeled. Those are the inexplicable disaster winters that seem like evil forces are truly working against us. 

This year is a terrible snow winter along the east coast. Oddly, much of the SE and our area are above normal YTD but that's only because 2 separate storms far apart in time hit flush. Just to our north it's an epic disaster for hundreds of miles. This just isn't a good year for snowfall along 95.  There have been very few good setups and legitimate chances for 7 consecutive weeks. It's just how it goes sometimes. 

[Ji]

This winter is actually much better than some of our previous struggles. Sometimes there's a legitimate snowhole right over DC-Balt and the suburbs while every.single.area. to our north south east or west gets pummeled. Those are the inexplicable disaster winters that seem like evil forces are truly working against us. 
This year is a terrible snow winter along the east coast. Oddly, much of the SE and our area are above normal YTD but that's only because 2 separate storms far apart in time hit flush. Just to our north it's an epic disaster for hundreds of miles. This just isn't a good year for snowfall along 95.  There have been very few good setups and legitimate chances for 7 consecutive weeks. It's just how it goes sometimes. 

What bad luck. A snowy and snow covered January