Ji Posted January 23, 2019 Author Share Posted January 23, 2019 the OP Gfs just refuses to give us snow. They ruined the model....it used to show blizzards during the summer for us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 23, 2019 Author Share Posted January 23, 2019 6 minutes ago, yoda said: PV looks like it's coming close for a visit at 168 to the US dont be happy about that. I guess you dont want it to snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 23, 2019 Share Posted January 23, 2019 2 minutes ago, Ji said: the OP Gfs just refuses to give us snow. They ruined the model....it used to show blizzards during the summer for us That's why you toss the old op and hug the Fv3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 23, 2019 Author Share Posted January 23, 2019 look at the 500 on the GFS for the same time at 18z and 00z LOL at 192 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaydreb Posted January 23, 2019 Share Posted January 23, 2019 4 minutes ago, Ji said: the OP Gfs just refuses to give us snow. They ruined the model....it used to show blizzards during the summer for us GFS is the new Dr. No. Even the Euro tosses us a bone today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 23, 2019 Author Share Posted January 23, 2019 1 minute ago, Bob Chill said: That's why you toss the old op and hug the Fv3 lol...its like the kids who asks mom for something...she says no..so he goes to Dad and asks the same question Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 23, 2019 Author Share Posted January 23, 2019 Just now, jaydreb said: GFS is the new Dr. No. Even the Euro tosses us a bone today. i mean all winter...it wont give us real snow...fantasy snow...... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 23, 2019 Author Share Posted January 23, 2019 did something happen in the relationship between TT and the canadien? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MD Snow Posted January 23, 2019 Share Posted January 23, 2019 Just now, Ji said: did something happen in the relationship between TT and the canadien? been super slow coming out recently on TT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 23, 2019 Share Posted January 23, 2019 4 minutes ago, Ji said: did something happen in the relationship between TT and the canadien? Same with wxbell. Many missing panels. Snow maps are up. Looks like 1-3" on the 29th-30th Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 23, 2019 Share Posted January 23, 2019 FWIW, 00Z UKIE has a 999mb SLP sitting in N TX at 144 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 23, 2019 Share Posted January 23, 2019 13 minutes ago, yoda said: FWIW, 00Z UKIE has a 999mb SLP sitting in N TX at 144 That’s going to Detroit Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted January 23, 2019 Share Posted January 23, 2019 11 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said: That’s going to Detroit How do you know that from that map? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ATreglown Posted January 23, 2019 Share Posted January 23, 2019 42 minutes ago, ravensrule said: How do you know that from that map? And any explanation?...... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RDM Posted January 23, 2019 Share Posted January 23, 2019 42 minutes ago, ravensrule said: How do you know that from that map? 1016 over sw FL pumps the ridge up and the 1008 isobar is pointing to the NE from the 999 L towards towards central IL - right at Detroit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted January 23, 2019 Share Posted January 23, 2019 Just now, RDM said: 1016 over sw FL pumps the ridge up and the 1008 isobar is pointing to the NE from the 999 L towards towards central IL - right at Detroit. Thank you for the explanation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ATreglown Posted January 23, 2019 Share Posted January 23, 2019 8 minutes ago, RDM said: 1016 over sw FL pumps the ridge up and the 1008 isobar is pointing to the NE from the 999 L towards towards central IL - right at Detroit. Thank you for that. I appreciate the explanation and you responding to my question! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RDM Posted January 23, 2019 Share Posted January 23, 2019 Just now, ravensrule said: Thank you for the explanation. If it's right - that's how I'm reading it but after 20 years here and on Eastern before with dialup, I'm still an aspiring weenie wannabe. Hope that 1016 does not park itself off the coast of FL - far better to get it further east, especially as a 1016. As is, the WAR would look to push the action too far west. Get it farther east so it relaxes the WAR enough to still turn things up the east coast and not OTS, but just off the coast to let the still relatively SSTs do their thing, that would help. All said, its still a week away. The way things have been flipping run to run, I'm going to quell the urge to get excited about anything until we see something last through a full 24 hour cycle of runs, across multiple models inside of 5 days. And even then not going to hold my breath. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 23, 2019 Author Share Posted January 23, 2019 00z euro historically awful run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted January 23, 2019 Share Posted January 23, 2019 16 minutes ago, Ji said: 00z euro historically awful run Why? Did it just lose everything? Lol (seriously when you guys post "it looks awful" without any details...it's baffling for those of us who don't have the precip panels) And why does something tell me you may be going a bit extreme with "historically awful"? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted January 23, 2019 Share Posted January 23, 2019 Euro is actually promising for the 30th. Drop that pv into the western/central lakes like we saw with the 12z EPS instead of into N Dakota/Minn. and we probably have our east coast storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted January 23, 2019 Share Posted January 23, 2019 EPS looks more promising for roughly around the 30th time frame though the pv drop is a little west of my liking. MSLP has improved over the 12z as it seems to be keying less on the Midwest low and more so on a coastal through that time period. Seeing a corresponding increase in the snowfall means through that period of time as well. eta: Actually after looking deeper into the 30th time frame the eps is all over the place with no clear camp on the evolution through the 29/30 time frame. Seems to be fighting the idea of a low running to our west or a coastal and any combination in between. Knowing the setup with the pv dropping down at this time I would tend to favor a Miller B transfer to the coast from the energy to the west. Where this occurs would be highly dependent on the evolution of the pv with the deepness of the drop and the location of the drop. We tend not to fare well with Miller b's but in this case the advertised depth of drop and location would possibly be favorable for a more southern transfer. Pretty much at wait and see mode at this point to see where the models go with the pv. I will say that the ingredients are on the board IMO for a big storm if everything comes together right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted January 23, 2019 Share Posted January 23, 2019 No square hits, but 6z GFS is certainly active starting w early next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RevWarReenactor Posted January 23, 2019 Share Posted January 23, 2019 11 minutes ago, snowfan said: No square hits, but 6z GFS is certainly active starting w early next week. The 6z looks unimpressive to me. Early next week looks like rain. After that is fantasy time. It's been showing all kinds of inconsistency in the long range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 23, 2019 Share Posted January 23, 2019 13 minutes ago, snowfan said: No square hits, but 6z GFS is certainly active starting w early next week. While u r correct it is active, the 6z GFS is a 50 shades of fail run and has almost every conceivable scenario thru the run in which could possibly just miss out on all the action. Eventually you would think one wave will break for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 23, 2019 Share Posted January 23, 2019 Am I reading the ens wrong for next week? Instead of the tpv paying the Northeast US a visit like originally progged it is now going to dive into the Plains pumping heights downstream in our area = AN temps? That is one heck of a turn of events if it verifies. Went from 20 degrees+ BN means to 10 degrees AN means on some guidance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterymix Posted January 23, 2019 Share Posted January 23, 2019 10 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: While u r correct it is active, the 6z GFS is a 50 shades of fail run and has almost every conceivable scenario thru the run in which could possibly just miss out on all the action. Eventually you would think one wave will break for us. I see the same. For years/decades, we've disciplined ourselves as a sub-region here to wait "10 days". Now, thanks to Ms. Pacific and Ms. Atlantic and Ms. equatorial Pacific Ocean, we discipline ourselves to wait 16 days and the next ensemble run will be "epic". New mantra for MA and southern PA: March will saves us! Sun angle can be overcome by heavy rates at night! Padding my seasonal total 1/8" at a time! Severe rules all! Living for Tropical season! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted January 23, 2019 Share Posted January 23, 2019 8 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: Am I reading the ens wrong for next week? Instead of the tpv paying the Northeast US a visit like originally progged it us now going to dive into the Plains pumping heights downstream in our area = AN temps? That is one heck of a turn of events if it verifies. Went from 30 degrees+ BN means to 10 degrees AN means on some guidance. ??? Lost me here. EPS does drop the pv west of the lakes but it is a very quick shot of above normal (3-5 degrees) but that is it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterymix Posted January 23, 2019 Share Posted January 23, 2019 7 hours ago, ravensrule said: How do you know that from that map? Anything that gets even a tiny bit of negative tilt west of Mississippi River is trending to scoot NE. DT rule # slopheadzillion Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterymix Posted January 23, 2019 Share Posted January 23, 2019 3 minutes ago, showmethesnow said: ??? Lost me here. EPS does drop the pv west of the lakes but it is a very quick shot of above normal (3-5 degrees) but that is it. 30% probability that it is actually not too soon to prepared the snowblower for summer storage. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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