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January/February Winter Storm Threat Tracker


Ji

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  On 1/25/2019 at 3:18 PM, nw baltimore wx said:

Good find, Showme!  I couldn't find anything using lwx in my searches.

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If i remember correctly  we had just moved up to PA from Catonsville when that storm hit. It was a gut punch because we got 6 to maybe 8 inches up here while areas to the south were scoring 12-18+ inches. Think PSU doubled my total as well. Come to learn it happens quite often up here where PSU complains about getting fringed and yet he scores and I end up on the low end. 

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NAVGEM took sides with the gfs and fv3 and redevelops a second low off the N NJ coast. Crushes interior NE. Wouldn't stick a fork in it especially at this range and with all the pieces in play  but we are losing many of the scenarios where we 'got something' out of this. We may have been better off with the anafront scenario tbh. ICON is too far W and the others look like redeveloping Miller B (hybrids?) which occurs a hair too late for both our areas.

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  On 1/25/2019 at 3:46 PM, Ralph Wiggum said:

NAVGEM took sides with the gfs and fv3 and redevelops a second low off the N NJ coast. Crushes interior NE. Wouldn't stick a fork in it especially at this range and with all the pieces in play  but we are losing many of the scenarios where we 'got something' out of this. We may have been better off with the anafront scenario tbh. ICON is too far W and the others look like redeveloping Miller B (hybrids?) which occurs a hair too late for both our areas.

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Ha, only in this winter would we consider an anafront in easier scenario than a coastal. Still got time to inch toward victory, but I hope we aren't caught in between and watch the coastal crush north of us.

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  On 1/25/2019 at 3:47 PM, osfan24 said:

Ha, only in this winter would we consider an anafront in easier scenario than a coastal. Still got time to inch toward victory, but I hope we aren't caught in between and watch the coastal crush north of us.

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We still have the euro family til 12z anyway so there's that.

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  On 1/25/2019 at 3:41 PM, LP08 said:

Also doesn’t help that the PV lobe drops in a little further west as well.  Probably a result of the War as well.

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 The talk of the PV forecasted going more West was the topic of the Mount Holly Long term discussion this AM. Actually I thought even though anafronts here usualy suck, I was thinking the set-up yesterday looked decent for a 1 out of every 20 positive outcome around these parts. This will end up a New England snowstorm.    

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  On 1/25/2019 at 3:46 PM, Ralph Wiggum said:

NAVGEM took sides with the gfs and fv3 and redevelops a second low off the N NJ coast. Crushes interior NE. Wouldn't stick a fork in it especially at this range and with all the pieces in play  but we are losing many of the scenarios where we 'got something' out of this. We may have been better off with the anafront scenario tbh. ICON is too far W and the others look like redeveloping Miller B (hybrids?) which occurs a hair too late for both our areas.

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What day is this possible event for?

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  On 1/22/2019 at 4:33 AM, LP08 said:

It’s probably what, the third time we have seen it at this range? The follow up wave idea that is.  Fools gold at range but it’s nice too look at for the time being.

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Im on the central jersey shore.  Our thread is dead. Was wondering whats your thoughts about up ib jersey getting into some of the redeveloping coastal?

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  On 1/25/2019 at 3:46 PM, Ralph Wiggum said:

NAVGEM took sides with the gfs and fv3 and redevelops a second low off the N NJ coast. Crushes interior NE. Wouldn't stick a fork in it especially at this range and with all the pieces in play  but we are losing many of the scenarios where we 'got something' out of this. We may have been better off with the anafront scenario tbh. ICON is too far W and the others look like redeveloping Miller B (hybrids?) which occurs a hair too late for both our areas.

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You have a better chance with a Miller B than we do anyways. They are the ultimate screwjob for our area.

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  On 1/25/2019 at 3:49 PM, frd said:

 The talk of the PV forecasted going more West was the topic of the Mount Holly Long term discussion this AM. Actually I thought even though anafronts here usualy suck, I was thinking the set-up yesterday looked decent for a 1 out of every 20 positive outcome around these parts. This will end up a New England snowstorm.    

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The 6z EPS also showed the PV dropping in significantly west of 0z. 

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  On 1/25/2019 at 3:50 PM, Franklin0529 said:

Im on the central jersey shore.  Our thread is dead. Was wondering whats your thoughts about up ib jersey getting into some of the redeveloping coastal?

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Kinda stuck as well...the front still needs to clear.  I think the only hope is with the trailer going under all of us.

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  On 1/25/2019 at 3:46 PM, Ralph Wiggum said:

NAVGEM took sides with the gfs and fv3 and redevelops a second low off the N NJ coast. Crushes interior NE. Wouldn't stick a fork in it especially at this range and with all the pieces in play  but we are losing many of the scenarios where we 'got something' out of this. We may have been better off with the anafront scenario tbh. ICON is too far W and the others look like redeveloping Miller B (hybrids?) which occurs a hair too late for both our areas.

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Really didn't/don't like the idea of post frontal anafront-low snows. Chances are very good we fail at that with nothing more then a quick dusting at best. Just takes to much in the way of cooperation between the different levels of the lower atmosphere to get the lift and transport over the colder air that we need. Think our best chances lie with a discrete southern system pulling through the area and hoping that the cold reaches us in time.

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