Bob Chill Posted January 22, 2019 Share Posted January 22, 2019 On 1/22/2019 at 10:24 PM, Ji said: Means it could dig even more south and west Expand Stop stealing my thoughts. It scares the F out of me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted January 22, 2019 Share Posted January 22, 2019 On 1/22/2019 at 10:22 PM, Bob Chill said: Just posted the same thing in the pattern thread. Bootleg neg nao and 50/50 in the med range... oh my! Expand Mid-Atlantic Winters: Bootlegin' neg Nao's since 2014...lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted January 22, 2019 Share Posted January 22, 2019 On 1/22/2019 at 10:28 PM, Maestrobjwa said: Mid-Atlantic Winters: Bootlegin' neg Nao's since 2014...lol Expand You can say that agai.... Never mind! LOL! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 22, 2019 Author Share Posted January 22, 2019 On 1/22/2019 at 10:25 PM, Bob Chill said: Stop stealing my thoughts. It scares the F out of meDon't worry. It could he a false alarm with the nao and it digs enough to only hit 40N Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted January 22, 2019 Share Posted January 22, 2019 On 1/22/2019 at 10:25 PM, Bob Chill said: Stop stealing my thoughts. It scares the F out of me Expand Watch out Bob...we might be seein' a new side of Ji that might be tryin' to replace ya! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 22, 2019 Share Posted January 22, 2019 On 1/22/2019 at 10:29 PM, Ji said: On 1/22/2019 at 10:25 PM, Bob Chill said: Stop stealing my thoughts. It scares the F out of me Expand Don't worry. It could he a false alarm with the nao and it digs enough to only hit 40N Expand Fv3 kinda does that but has a following shortwave that give us some light snow. 2 for 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted January 22, 2019 Share Posted January 22, 2019 On 1/22/2019 at 10:29 PM, midatlanticweather said: You can say that agai.... Never mind! LOL! Expand Haha Oops! (sometimes the mobile version is a bit slow to respond...hit the refresh and it must've double-posted, lol) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
peribonca Posted January 22, 2019 Share Posted January 22, 2019 Just when I decide to stop looking at models for a few days this happens... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 22, 2019 Share Posted January 22, 2019 On 1/22/2019 at 10:22 PM, Bob Chill said: Just posted the same thing in the pattern thread. Bootleg neg nao and 50/50 in the med range... oh my! Expand I'm getting the feeling it wants to snow on us around the 30th. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
poolz1 Posted January 22, 2019 Share Posted January 22, 2019 The ns wave that acts as the kicker for what had a chance to be a memorable storm is now becoming the focus.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 22, 2019 Author Share Posted January 22, 2019 On 1/22/2019 at 10:33 PM, C.A.P.E. said: I'm getting the feeling it wants to snow on us around the 30th.We need to add to our January totals to atone for our February shutout Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted January 22, 2019 Share Posted January 22, 2019 Wow, 18z GFS is a pretty weenie run. Multiple shots at frozen. eta: I need to get my eyesight checked. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaydreb Posted January 22, 2019 Share Posted January 22, 2019 On 1/22/2019 at 10:55 PM, nj2va said: Wow, 18z GFS is a pretty weenie run. Multiple shots at frozen. Expand I only saw the one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 22, 2019 Author Share Posted January 22, 2019 On 1/22/2019 at 10:55 PM, nj2va said: Wow, 18z GFS is a pretty weenie run. Multiple shots at frozen. Huh? It was a disaster Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowCane Posted January 22, 2019 Share Posted January 22, 2019 On 1/22/2019 at 10:59 PM, Ji said: Huh? It was a disaster Expand I thought next Tuesday looked great, and it seems like we can't rule out a snow shower Sat-Monday either. Not a bad trend over the last few runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted January 22, 2019 Share Posted January 22, 2019 On 1/22/2019 at 10:33 PM, C.A.P.E. said: I'm getting the feeling it wants to snow on us around the 30th. Expand Me too. Doesn't look like it would take much of a change for a phase with that system or am I mistaken? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted January 22, 2019 Share Posted January 22, 2019 On 1/22/2019 at 10:59 PM, Ji said: On 1/22/2019 at 10:55 PM, nj2va said: Wow, 18z GFS is a pretty weenie run. Multiple shots at frozen. Expand Huh? It was a disaster Expand I don't know WTF I was looking at on my phone but now that I'm on my computer, I don't see the same thing. I wouldn't call it a disaster but its not a weenie run. 30th looked fine to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 22, 2019 Share Posted January 22, 2019 On 1/22/2019 at 11:26 PM, nj2va said: I don't know WTF I was looking at on my phone but now that I'm on my computer, I don't see the same thing. I wouldn't call it a disaster but its not a weenie run. 30th looked fine to me. Expand Sometimes the weenie in our heads just overwhelms reality..it happens Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted January 22, 2019 Share Posted January 22, 2019 Interested to see the individual members but a weak signal for the 30th on the MSLP charts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
luckyamaha Posted January 22, 2019 Share Posted January 22, 2019 On 1/22/2019 at 11:29 PM, BristowWx said: Sometimes the weenie in our heads just overwhelms reality..it happensAll I saw was some garbage scrolling across the mid- states and cutting. Not sure you hit F5 key to refresh the runSent from my SM-N960U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 22, 2019 Share Posted January 22, 2019 On 1/22/2019 at 10:33 PM, C.A.P.E. said: I'm getting the feeling it wants to snow on us around the 30th. Expand 18z gefs partially agrees with you Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Danajames Posted January 22, 2019 Share Posted January 22, 2019 The 1800 run of the GFS is showing a decently organized Clipper system diving southeast Monday night and then coming back around the bend northeast of Virginia as a small but compact low pressure system. On that track, it would undoubtedly be all snow and another shot of cold air will be on it's heels. As of now, it doesn't look like a large area of precipitation and the model has it moving pretty fast as most Clippers do. So, maybe a quick shot of snow Tuesday morning into the evening hours and then cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 22, 2019 Share Posted January 22, 2019 On 1/22/2019 at 11:46 PM, Danajames said: The 1800 run of the GFS is showing a decently organized Clipper system diving southeast Monday night and then coming back around the bend northeast of Virginia as a small but compact low pressure system. On that track, it would undoubtedly be all snow and another shot of cold air will be on it's heels. As of now, it doesn't look like a large area of precipitation and the model has it moving pretty fast as most Clippers do. So, maybe a quick shot of snow Tuesday morning into the evening hours and then cold. Expand Need another 100 mile dig. Not impossible a week out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 22, 2019 Share Posted January 22, 2019 On 1/22/2019 at 11:33 PM, Bob Chill said: 18z gefs partially agrees with you Expand That's not awful. Plenty of time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 22, 2019 Share Posted January 22, 2019 On 1/22/2019 at 10:54 PM, Ji said: On 1/22/2019 at 10:33 PM, C.A.P.E. said: I'm getting the feeling it wants to snow on us around the 30th. Expand We need to add to our January totals to atone for our February shutout Expand December maybe. Hardly a spoiler here, but it will snow in Feb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 23, 2019 Author Share Posted January 23, 2019 On 1/22/2019 at 11:33 PM, Bob Chill said: 18z gefs partially agrees with you Expand very partially lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 23, 2019 Share Posted January 23, 2019 On 1/23/2019 at 12:20 AM, Ji said: very partially lol Expand For d7+ it's half decent. Not much we can do but wait and see. Need to get past Thurs. That storm is what starts building the -nao that's never happening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Danajames Posted January 23, 2019 Share Posted January 23, 2019 The odds of ANY model nailing a storm that's over 10 days out is extremely low. Not saying it hasn't happened but it's rare. I usually stick with a 5 day window and anything longer than that borders on high comedy. Sometimes models can pick up on long term pattern shifts but individual storms? Nah...not going to bite on those. Not sure when this long range silliness started but it's basically useless other than to entertain people with pure fiction. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted January 23, 2019 Share Posted January 23, 2019 On 1/23/2019 at 12:25 AM, Bob Chill said: For d7+ it's half decent. Not much we can do but wait and see. Need to get past Thurs. That storm is what starts building the -nao that's never happening. Expand Wasn't the last storm supposed to start building the -nao? (What happened? Lol) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted January 23, 2019 Share Posted January 23, 2019 18z FV3 has snow chances on the 30th and 5th. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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