Ji Posted January 22, 2019 Author Share Posted January 22, 2019 the 991 Gulf Low Superstorm for this weekend that models were seeing were one of the most epic false alarms ive seen in a while.....and we trust models at 10-15 days? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted January 22, 2019 Share Posted January 22, 2019 On 1/22/2019 at 6:31 PM, Ji said: the 991 Gulf Low Superstorm for this weekend that models were seeing were one of the most epic false alarms ive seen in a while.....and we trust models at 10-15 days? Expand Straight epic disaster! Just watch happy hour GFS suck us all back in. Well....or just plain suck. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGolfBro Posted January 22, 2019 Share Posted January 22, 2019 On 1/22/2019 at 6:31 PM, Ji said: the 991 Gulf Low Superstorm for this weekend that models were seeing were one of the most epic false alarms ive seen in a while.....and we trust models at 10-15 days? Expand I don’t think anybody trusts the models. But it’s the only tool we have for forecasting. Without the models we’d just be guessing. And right now all the models do is provide us with a slightly better guess. But let’s be honest. At the end of the day the weather is going to do what the weather is going to do Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 22, 2019 Share Posted January 22, 2019 On 1/22/2019 at 6:31 PM, Ji said: the 991 Gulf Low Superstorm for this weekend that models were seeing were one of the most epic false alarms ive seen in a while.....and we trust models at 10-15 days? Expand False alarm? It was a longshot crappy setup. Anyone who thought that it was going to be a locked and loaded long track storm doesn't know how to read upper air patterns Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 22, 2019 Author Share Posted January 22, 2019 On 1/22/2019 at 6:56 PM, Bob Chill said: False alarm? It was a longshot crappy setup. Anyone who thought that it was going to be a locked and loaded long track storm doesn't know how to read upper air patterns Expand no i knew it wasnt coming up our way but i thought at least a powerful gulf low would form and head east of the SE coast. I am only talking about 991 low in the GOM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted January 22, 2019 Share Posted January 22, 2019 Light snow breaking out at H240 of the Euro with a low in the SE. Hopefully the EPS bites too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 22, 2019 Share Posted January 22, 2019 On 1/22/2019 at 6:58 PM, Ji said: no i knew it wasnt coming up our way but i thought at least a powerful gulf low would form and head east of the SE coast. I am only talking about 991 low in the GOM Expand I still strongly beleive we're going to get some snowfall within 2 weeks. I'm not posting much because overnight everyone just jumped in head first and assumed things are going to break down with the quickness. The irony is the same models that have been fooling us with d10-15 looks that have barely verified once are now reliable and make complete sense that everything is doomed. I'm not sold one bit that things fall to pieces. If they do i beleive it will be temporary at worst. We'll see who's right here shortly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted January 22, 2019 Share Posted January 22, 2019 Euro has what looks like a good opportunity for snow at day 10. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted January 22, 2019 Share Posted January 22, 2019 On 1/22/2019 at 6:51 PM, SnowGolfBro said: I don’t think anybody trusts the models. But it’s the only tool we have for forecasting. Without the models we’d just be guessing. And right now all the models do is provide us with a slightly better guess. But let’s be honest. At the end of the day the weather is going to do what the weather is going to do Expand Models do not predict weather for 5+ days, they merely give examples of it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 22, 2019 Share Posted January 22, 2019 On 1/22/2019 at 6:18 PM, MD Snow said: Appears the GGEM jumped on board to the idea at 12z... Expand Not being a Deb but u realize this is like 7 minutes of sleet then rain right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 22, 2019 Share Posted January 22, 2019 On 1/22/2019 at 6:51 PM, SnowGolfBro said: I don’t think anybody trusts the models. But it’s the only tool we have for forecasting. Without the models we’d just be guessing. And right now all the models do is provide us with a slightly better guess. But let’s be honest. At the end of the day the weather is going to do what the weather is going to do Expand And dont forget.....enjoy the weather, it's the only weather you got. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MD Snow Posted January 22, 2019 Share Posted January 22, 2019 On 1/22/2019 at 7:16 PM, Ralph Wiggum said: Not being a Deb but u realize this is like 7 minutes of sleet then rain right? Expand Yup. I think everyone realizes that. Just pointing out that the Nam's aren't the only model that have something frozen showing up tomorrow in the area. Nothing of consequence. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 22, 2019 Share Posted January 22, 2019 On 1/22/2019 at 7:04 PM, DCTeacherman said: Euro has what looks like a good opportunity for snow at day 10. Expand Are u guys in a parallel universe somewhere where the day 10 ops have even been remotely close to verifying? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
high risk Posted January 22, 2019 Share Posted January 22, 2019 On 1/22/2019 at 7:16 PM, Ralph Wiggum said: Not being a Deb but u realize this is like 7 minutes of sleet then rain right? Expand I'll go back to my earlier post and say that while it's still most likely that this will have no impact (either due to no precip or warm temps), ground temps are extremely cold, so light rain falling at 35 degrees tomorrow could cause some icy surfaces. We've see this happen before. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MD Snow Posted January 22, 2019 Share Posted January 22, 2019 All 12z ops...gfs, euro, jma, gem, fv3, and icon have a coastal storm next Tuesday night and/or Wednesday. Still a long way off but it’s a signal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted January 22, 2019 Share Posted January 22, 2019 Anti Consensus Courtesy 33andrain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MD Snow Posted January 22, 2019 Share Posted January 22, 2019 On 1/22/2019 at 7:44 PM, frd said: Anti Consensus Courtesy 33andrain Expand Yeah, not a lot of consensus on track/timing. But definite consensus on a storm threat. That’s all you can ask for at a 7 day lead. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yeoman Posted January 22, 2019 Share Posted January 22, 2019 On 1/22/2019 at 6:31 PM, Ji said: the 991 Gulf Low Superstorm Expand doesn't compute Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxdude64 Posted January 22, 2019 Share Posted January 22, 2019 On 1/22/2019 at 7:24 PM, high risk said: I'll go back to my earlier post and say that while it's still most likely that this will have no impact (either due to no precip or warm temps), ground temps are extremely cold, so light rain falling at 35 degrees tomorrow could cause some icy surfaces. We've see this happen before. Expand Yep, happened here last year. Temp was almost 40 with rain, nothing on the cars, decks, mailboxes. BUT the ground was froze solid a good 1/4 inch! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted January 22, 2019 Share Posted January 22, 2019 I would say there is some mild interest in a storm in the deep south moving towards day 10 on the EPS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 22, 2019 Share Posted January 22, 2019 On 1/22/2019 at 7:56 PM, LP08 said: I would say there is some mild interest in a storm in the deep south moving towards day 10 on the EPS. Expand I would say there is a zero chance it happens. Nobody believes in the models past 6 hours anymore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGolfBro Posted January 22, 2019 Share Posted January 22, 2019 On 1/22/2019 at 8:34 PM, stormtracker said: I would say there is a zero chance it happens. Nobody believes in the models past 6 hours anymore. Expand Unless they are showing a warm rain storm. Then the models are solid as a rock Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 22, 2019 Share Posted January 22, 2019 On 1/22/2019 at 7:44 PM, frd said: Anti Consensus Courtesy 33andrain Expand LOL.Talk about spread. Just grab a dart and throw it at a map of the Mid Atlantic and you have a shot to verify. Crazy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted January 22, 2019 Share Posted January 22, 2019 Actually am getting somewhat interested in the roughly Tues/Wed time period next week after looking at the EPS. Getting a much deeper drop of the pv in a somewhat favorable location for our region. The setup IMO is starting to scream big east coast storm and it is inside of 7 days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted January 22, 2019 Share Posted January 22, 2019 On 1/22/2019 at 9:15 PM, losetoa6 said: Totally agree. Nice shift and h5 looks more conducive for a sizable storm Expand Just one run and the GEFS isn't really on board so let's see where it goes. But I admit that it did get my attention. Best part is, we won't have to wait long to know if there is any play in this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 22, 2019 Share Posted January 22, 2019 18Z GFS looks pretty good for next Tuesday. Follow up wave that might actually work. Verbatim temp issues in DC but still a long ways out there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted January 22, 2019 Share Posted January 22, 2019 I’ve seen worse looks than this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 22, 2019 Share Posted January 22, 2019 On 1/22/2019 at 10:19 PM, LP08 said: I’ve seen worse looks than this. Expand Just posted the same thing in the pattern thread. Bootleg neg nao and 50/50 in the med range... oh my! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted January 22, 2019 Share Posted January 22, 2019 Energy hanging out in the SW too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 22, 2019 Author Share Posted January 22, 2019 Means it could dig even more south and west Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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