TriPol Posted January 22, 2019 Share Posted January 22, 2019 5 hours ago, purduewx80 said: Certainly not a bad look on the UKMET. Yeah, the UKMET did SO well with the last storm... if the EURO doesn't show 10 inches of snow, I'm not buying a shovel. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYCweatherNOW Posted January 22, 2019 Share Posted January 22, 2019 9 minutes ago, TriPol said: Yeah, the UKMET did SO well with the last storm... if the EURO doesn't show 10 inches of snow, I'm not buying a shovel. It really didn’t, gfs para did better and so did the euro not to mention that was last night ukmet run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
White Gorilla Posted January 22, 2019 Share Posted January 22, 2019 1 hour ago, Snow88 said: The pattern looks very good going into February. How so? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCG RS Posted January 22, 2019 Share Posted January 22, 2019 Lets be honest, most snow threats are thread the needle for the coast and immediate NYC metro area. That's what makes this last two decade run pretty much a once in a lifetime stretch outside of a few years with everything coming together perfectly at the right time on so many occasions. We're due a bad luck winter or three, law of averages. Not saying this winter will finish as a ratter but we've been really spoiled the last 15 or so years and should put it all in perspective.In all honesty though, Weather tends to be cyclical. The mid 70s was pretty good for nyc in terms of snow, the early 80s not so much. Then we switched to a bit more snow and then the late 90s and early 2000s were horrific and then we switched again.That being said, my crow is delicious. Yes, I'm still eating it from the weekend. I have leftovers for days. Sent from my SM-N960U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted January 22, 2019 Share Posted January 22, 2019 1 hour ago, 495weatherguy said: I’m going to interpret this as you have your doubts about a snowy February based off of this After what we’ve been experiencing since late November till now, I’m doubting any sustained change to a cold and snow pattern. And if the ensembles are right about a +EPO forming by the 2nd week of February, that month will be in serious trouble too IMO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
David-LI Posted January 22, 2019 Share Posted January 22, 2019 GFS has been trending south the last 3 runs for the presumably Tuesday storm. Edit: Shows some snow for Tuesday this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TwcMan Posted January 22, 2019 Share Posted January 22, 2019 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TwcMan Posted January 22, 2019 Share Posted January 22, 2019 Wow! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
purduewx80 Posted January 22, 2019 Share Posted January 22, 2019 1 hour ago, NYCweatherNOW said: It really didn’t, gfs para did better and so did the euro not to mention that was last night ukmet run did you miss the part where i was replying to a post on the 00z guidance? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TwcMan Posted January 22, 2019 Share Posted January 22, 2019 Clown map. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
495weatherguy Posted January 22, 2019 Share Posted January 22, 2019 2 hours ago, Snow88 said: The pattern looks very good going into February. This sentiment has been expressed this winter many times Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TwcMan Posted January 22, 2019 Share Posted January 22, 2019 Would gladly take anything at this point. Even a 1-3” storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
495weatherguy Posted January 22, 2019 Share Posted January 22, 2019 1 hour ago, kat5hurricane said: Lets be honest, most snow threats are thread the needle for the coast and immediate NYC metro area. That's what makes this last two decade run pretty much a once in a lifetime stretch outside of a few years with everything coming together perfectly at the right time on so many occasions. We're due a bad luck winter or three, law of averages. Not saying this winter will finish as a ratter but we've been really spoiled the last 15 or so years and should put it all in perspective. Very well said. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
495weatherguy Posted January 22, 2019 Share Posted January 22, 2019 1 minute ago, TwcMan said: Would gladly take anything at this point. Even a 1-3” storm. Would love for an early, real spring. Early end to winter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 22, 2019 Share Posted January 22, 2019 49 minutes ago, White Gorilla said: How so? Ao looks to go negative and the pna ridge looks to be very good. Weeklies show a negative nao and ao pattern. I think people are worrying for no reason Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 22, 2019 Share Posted January 22, 2019 4 minutes ago, 495weatherguy said: This sentiment has been expressed this winter many times Majority of forecasters had a good pattern starting 2nd half of January. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 22, 2019 Share Posted January 22, 2019 Models are starting to show a northern stream pattern which is fine. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted January 22, 2019 Share Posted January 22, 2019 1 minute ago, Snow88 said: Ao looks to go negative and the pna ridge looks to be very good. Weeklies show a negative nao and ao pattern. I think people are worrying for no reason What good is a -NAO & -AO going to do if the EPO is positive? +EPO overwhelms them. And everytime a +PNA has shown up since November, it’s been transient and gets blasted right apart by raging Pacific flow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dan76 Posted January 22, 2019 Share Posted January 22, 2019 1 minute ago, Snow88 said: Majority of forecasters had a good pattern starting 2nd half of January. We're 7 day's in already with another 1-2 (not snow) coming so this month will be almost over before anything goog happens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
495weatherguy Posted January 22, 2019 Share Posted January 22, 2019 4 minutes ago, Snow88 said: Majority of forecasters had a good pattern starting 2nd half of January. I’m not doubting you or the forecasters(who are excellent btw)it just seems as though this year is not our year for snow. I know it’s not scientific and I know I’m biased, it just seems that way to me though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gravity Wave Posted January 22, 2019 Share Posted January 22, 2019 3km NAM has a pretty nasty looking squall line moving through on Thursday afternoon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted January 22, 2019 Share Posted January 22, 2019 10 minutes ago, Gravity Wave said: 3km NAM has a pretty nasty looking squall line moving through on Thursday afternoon. Yeah impressive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RU848789 Posted January 22, 2019 Share Posted January 22, 2019 1 minute ago, Snow88 said: Majority of forecasters had a good pattern starting 2nd half of January. It's been a much better pattern, delivering two significant snowfalls. Unfortunately, one hit Philly to AC and points S of there and the other hit areas N of I-80 for the most part. Doesn't mean the pattern hasn't been way better than from mid-Dec to mid-Jan - it's just that we got a bit unlucky with the outcomes. It happens. Will the pattern get even better with blocking developing? Many think so and then we'll have even better chances than we normally do. But no guarantees, since pattern predictions are inherently probabilistic, not deterministic, meaning outcomes will also be probabilistic and might not result in the outcomes one might desire. Like mounds of snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYCweatherNOW Posted January 22, 2019 Share Posted January 22, 2019 43 minutes ago, purduewx80 said: did you miss the part where i was replying to a post on the 00z guidance? Yeah I did sorry. Gfs looks healthy. Something will give just need to be patient Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TriPol Posted January 22, 2019 Share Posted January 22, 2019 39 minutes ago, TwcMan said: Clown map. Is Winter 2018-2019 so bad that we must post clown maps for storms 9 days away? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TwcMan Posted January 22, 2019 Share Posted January 22, 2019 4 minutes ago, TriPol said: Is Winter 2018-2019 so bad that we must post clown maps for storms 9 days away? Yes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HVSnowLover Posted January 22, 2019 Share Posted January 22, 2019 Euro and GFS are very different for next Monday-Tuesday, I wouldn't really buy anything being shown at this point Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted January 22, 2019 Author Share Posted January 22, 2019 1 hour ago, Gravity Wave said: 3km NAM has a pretty nasty looking squall line moving through on Thursday afternoon. Very impressive 6 SD LLJ event on the NAM. Maybe someone can start a separate thread. http://cms.met.psu.edu/sref/NAM/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Drz1111 Posted January 23, 2019 Share Posted January 23, 2019 2 hours ago, RU848789 said: It's been a much better pattern, delivering two significant snowfalls. Unfortunately, one hit Philly to AC and points S of there and the other hit areas N of I-80 for the most part. Doesn't mean the pattern hasn't been way better than from mid-Dec to mid-Jan - it's just that we got a bit unlucky with the outcomes. It happens. Will the pattern get even better with blocking developing? Many think so and then we'll have even better chances than we normally do. But no guarantees, since pattern predictions are inherently probabilistic, not deterministic, meaning outcomes will also be probabilistic and might not result in the outcomes one might desire. Like mounds of snow. Exactly. The pattern has been fine, but NYC has been unlucky. Dems the breaks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
purduewx80 Posted January 23, 2019 Share Posted January 23, 2019 3 hours ago, bluewave said: Very impressive 6 SD LLJ event on the NAM. Maybe someone can start a separate thread. http://cms.met.psu.edu/sref/NAM/ 00Z NAM upped the ante further with its 100KT 925mb jet over LI/CT. It looks like the upper low over TX/NM has split into two, which helps a secondary low form along the front tomorrow night into early Thursday. PWAT's approaching January records for OKX/CHH on its 00Z runs as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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