January 30, 2019 Snow Squall Observations Thread

[bluewave]

Figured we could use a dedicated thread to discuss any storm potential for later in January.

 

 

 

 

 

 

[uofmiami]

Probably end up a rainstorm, as cold air will once again be an issue, if this storm does happen.  There’s no high pressure in Quebec for cold air source should storm wrap up.

[MJO812]

7 minutes ago, uofmiami said:

Probably end up a rainstorm, as cold air will once again be an issue, if this storm does happen.  There’s no high pressure in Quebec for cold air source should storm wrap up.

Too early to say specifics

[TwcMan]

Ridge isn’t in the best position for the coast and we’re lacking cold enough air. Hopefully we can fix that before the storm occurs. It’s a good sign having all of the ensembles showing the signal for this timeframe

[NEG NAO]

Euro OP has a storm - rain to snow

https://weather.us/model-charts/euro/2019012100/usa/significant-weather/20190128-1800z.html

[NEG NAO]

Euro OP up the coast

[Brian5671]

Going to need a perfect track if there’s no cold high in the right spot.  The euro illustrates how it’s possible. 

[NEG NAO]

12 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

Going to need a perfect track if there’s no cold high in the right spot.  The euro illustrates how it’s possible. 

its called "threading the needle" but the teleconnections are showing a storm signal for this time period - one thing that is worrisome for along the coast is the MJO in the warm phases

[PB COLTS NECK NJ]

1 hour ago, bluewave said:

All the available ensemble guidance indicates the potential for a phasing storm system around January 27-28th. This is one of the few times that the EPS, GEFS, and GEPS show this kind of potential in the 6-10 day range. We are still pretty far out in time for any specifics. But maybe we can use this for a dedicated new January storm thread. So the general January thread doesn’t get too crowded.

 

 

 

I love Grand Planetary waves but we will need some luck to keep the coast all snow.  I would like to see the ridge axis to be a little further east here so I can keep the center off A/C  , but check out the moisture feed for this one as well.

Big ticket storm for someone. 

 

[NEG NAO]

16 minutes ago, PB COLTS NECK NJ said:

 

I love Grand Planetary waves but we will need some luck to keep the coast all snow.  I would like to see the ridge axis to be a little further east here so I can keep the center off A/C  , but check out the moisture feed for this one as well.

Big ticket storm for someone. 

 

 

 

Also the trough looks like it has a chance to become negatively tilted - hopefully we can get a 50/50 low for this event - but the thing that is worrisome along the coast is the MJO in the warm phases

[ILoveWinter]

Still early and I doubt most people here will jump on a few good model suites! (eh, who am I kidding?)

[snowman19]

18 minutes ago, PB COLTS NECK NJ said:

 

I love Grand Planetary waves but we will need some luck to keep the coast all snow.  I would like to see the ridge axis to be a little further east here so I can keep the center off A/C  , but check out the moisture feed for this one as well.

Big ticket storm for someone. 

 

Agree here. No -NAO, no 50/50 low, no big arctic high in SE Canada and yea unfavorable ridge positioning in the west. The Atlantic is definitely a real big problem though. As some others mentioned, the lack of cold is a big issue

[PB COLTS NECK NJ]

Just now, snowman19 said:

Agree here. No -NAO, no 50/50 low, no big arctic high in SE Canada and yea unfavorable ridge positioning in the west. The Atlantic is definitely a real big problem though. As some others mentioned, the lack of cold is a big issue

 

The cold is here , but is it cold either side of what I think is a big storm is a valid question.

It would be a dagger if the 15 days were well BN and you phased a moisture laden storm off the E/C and the coastal plain surged for 12 hours.

Long ways off tho. 

 

 

 

 

[Ericjcrash]

This is going to be another week of torture. Going to have to thread the needle, if I had to venture a guess you'd want to be NW of Middletown and west Milford to cash in again but we have an eternity to trend favorably. Cold air will be hard to come by at that point even though we're currently sitting in the single digits or colder everywhere. I'd sign up for the paste bomb that the 0z Euro was but it's very borderline.

[snowman19]

1 minute ago, PB COLTS NECK NJ said:

 

The cold is here , but is it cold either side of what I think is a big storm is a valid question.

It would be a dagger if the 15 days were well BN and you phased a moisture laden storm off the E/C and the coastal plain surged for 12 hours.

Long ways off tho. 

 

 

 

 

Biggest issue in my opinion is no -NAO block. If there was, this would be game on for a massive snowstorm

[NEG NAO]

17 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

Agree here. No -NAO, no 50/50 low, no big arctic high in SE Canada and yea unfavorable ridge positioning in the west. The Atlantic is definitely a real big problem though. As some others mentioned, the lack of cold is a big issue

NAO looks like it will trend down to neutral around the time of the storm or maybe a little negative

[Ericjcrash]

1 minute ago, snowman19 said:

Biggest issue in my opinion is no -NAO block. If there was, this would be game on for a massive snowstorm

Agreed. This is most likely going to race up right along the coast.

[SnowGoose69]

3 minutes ago, Ericjcrash said:

Agreed. This is most likely going to race up right along the coast.

I’m not sure the storm will be as amped as the Op Euro shows.  It’s rare to see a storm dig into the Gulf like that.  That was almost a 1993 redux which just doesn’t happen often 

[wdrag]

Hoping the phaser idea is right but I don't see phasing at 500mb, even as occurred this morning in NYS to allow us to have very deep cold air here today.  I see 2 members of the GEFS that have an option for a closed low south of 35N,  and no no sign, imo, of phasing closed low aloft south of 40.  Doesn't mean it cant happen but i see a fast mover out of the se USA up the east coast, w so many details to remain. Wont comment for a couple of days til this gets a little better defined. Here's WPC take issued at 1AM, basically for Sunday into Monday.  Note GA 10-29% chance of 2+inches of snow via .25 w.e. frozen.  The darker green is 30-49%  ie... thats 51-70% non occurrence. I like the WPC idea, as an outlook...not a big big one but definitely a hazard producer and associated travel issues Sun-Mon, but from my s standpoint, more likely west of I95. 

[USCG RS]

I’m not sure the storm will be as amped as the Op Euro shows.  It’s rare to see a storm dig into the Gulf like that.  That was almost a 1993 redux which just doesn’t happen often 

And if it is that amped, I would worry about it running inland no?

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[SnowGoose69]

1 minute ago, USCG RS said:

And if it is that amped, I would worry about it running inland no?

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Probably not inland.  Right along or just off the coast.  The eastern trof as the system is developing back across the western Gulf is too sharp and narrow for this to go west of the Apps

[Yanksfan]

26 minutes ago, Ericjcrash said:

This is going to be another week of torture. Going to have to thread the needle, if I had to venture a guess you'd want to be NW of Middletown and west Milford to cash in again but we have an eternity to trend favorably. Cold air will be hard to come by at that point even though we're currently sitting in the single digits or colder everywhere. I'd sign up for the paste bomb that the 0z Euro was but it's very borderline.

God help us all if we get another rainstorm in late January from a MIller A that takes a BM track no less. That would be the nail in the coffin for me.

[NEG NAO]

13 minutes ago, NutleyBlizzard said:

God help us all if we get another rainstorm in late January from a MIller A that takes a BM track no less. That would be the nail in the coffin for me.

if it is off the coast and takes a BM track the coast will at the very least go from rain to accumulating snow - its the storm that hugs the coast or tracks just inland along the coast that will produce more liquid then frozen in the immediate NYC metro ……….

[NEG NAO]

12Z GFS says what coastal storm ?

[weatherpruf]

1 hour ago, NutleyBlizzard said:

God help us all if we get another rainstorm in late January from a MIller A that takes a BM track no less. That would be the nail in the coffin for me.

Some years it just don't wanna happen. We are seeing that we are missing the components, from what I am reading here, to make for a decent snowstorm for a lot of us in the subforum ( not all ) and so the likelihood is that it will not be a big snowstorm, or even a snowstorm. As a nonpro I am not clear on why we never seem to get blocking when we need it, but there you are....maybe some other factors can make it work. See photos on the news of DC, KY, NE all with snow OTG, and nothing here of significance. Oh well, that makes some, ok many, ok most, people happy I guess.

[NEG NAO]

big rain storm coastal hugger on 12Z Canadian

[USCG RS]

big rain storm coastal hugger on 12Z Canadian

I would not be surprised at this solution tbh. But a ways to go.

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[purduewx80]

1 hour ago, snowman19 said:

Agree here. No -NAO, no 50/50 low, no big arctic high in SE Canada and yea unfavorable ridge positioning in the west. The Atlantic is definitely a real big problem though. As some others mentioned, the lack of cold is a big issue

There are indications of a ~1040mb high in SE Canada on most of the guidance, but the timing is variable due to the northern/southern stream differences. On the Euro, the Gulf low attacks the high from the S. Looking back at bluewave's initial post - the GEFS and EPS have a stronger high there than the Canadian ensembles. 

[SnowGoose69]

21 minutes ago, NEG NAO said:

12Z GFS says what coastal storm ?

Classic GFS squash the southern stream wave.  I don’t expect the GFS sees this event til inside 108 if it does end up happening 

 

[purduewx80]

Will be interesting to see how this evolves the next couple days, but the majority of ensembles at 00z favored something closer to the Euro w/ the 500 wave cutting off somewhere over the Gulf Coast/Southeast. We saw this with the system a few days before Christmas where parts of the Gulf Coast/SE set new record low 500 heights. If something like that verifies (high heights Canadian maritimes, low in the SE CONUS), obviously this will be another high precip event for the region. Some hints of an east-based -NAO which would favor inland areas seeing highest risk for +SN. At least there is good agreement the EPO is in better shape.  Clusters of 500mb anomalies valid Sunday evening below.