Brian5671 Posted January 21, 2019 Share Posted January 21, 2019 On 1/21/2019 at 9:19 PM, SnoSki14 said: EPS was really good all around, so there's hope yet. Things do look Pacific driven though, not sure if we're gonna get much Atlantic blocking. It worked out in 13/14 & 14/15 though. Expand Those winters got started a bit earlier and did not have a strong pac jet..14/15 did flip on a dime... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TwcMan Posted January 21, 2019 Share Posted January 21, 2019 14/15 flipped right around this time. Still plenty of time for NYC to at least reach average snowfall. Things look better now than they did in late Dec/early Jan, so that’s a huge positive. Pacific looks a lot better and I’d rather have a cooperative pacific over Atlantic. We have the cold now, just need some moisture. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted January 21, 2019 Share Posted January 21, 2019 GFS is a warm northern stream wave/frontal passage. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 21, 2019 Share Posted January 21, 2019 On 1/21/2019 at 10:57 PM, Ericjcrash said: GFS is a warm northern stream wave/frontal passage. Expand Para is a coastal storm ( looks warm on the ncep site ) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted January 21, 2019 Share Posted January 21, 2019 On 1/21/2019 at 11:03 PM, Snow88 said: Para is a coastal storm ( looks warm on the ncep site ) Expand Yea, it’s a rainstorm on that model, too warm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 21, 2019 Share Posted January 21, 2019 On 1/21/2019 at 11:15 PM, snowman19 said: Yea, it’s a rainstorm on that model, too warm Expand Its close 970 low east of SNJ Huge storm We will continue to track it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYCweatherNOW Posted January 21, 2019 Share Posted January 21, 2019 On 1/21/2019 at 11:20 PM, Snow88 said: Its close We will continue to track it Expand Can u guys post it or link us weenies Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 21, 2019 Share Posted January 21, 2019 18z Para Wow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted January 21, 2019 Share Posted January 21, 2019 That's like something I would have doodled in geometry class, and then erased because it was too unrealistic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 21, 2019 Share Posted January 21, 2019 On 1/21/2019 at 11:26 PM, Juliancolton said: That's like something I would have doodled in geometry class, and then erased because it was too unrealistic. Expand CMC had a coastal bomb but it was too warm for everyone. This has a lot of potential . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HeadInTheClouds Posted January 21, 2019 Share Posted January 21, 2019 Wow, she's a beauty. I get buried on that run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted January 21, 2019 Share Posted January 21, 2019 On 1/21/2019 at 11:15 PM, snowman19 said: Yea, it’s a rainstorm on that model, too warm Expand how do you call this model run a rainstorm ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gravity Wave Posted January 21, 2019 Share Posted January 21, 2019 Frame before. Keep in in mind the GFS thermals are unreliable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 21, 2019 Share Posted January 21, 2019 Another storm on the Para after the big one Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gravity Wave Posted January 21, 2019 Share Posted January 21, 2019 CMC has also been showing a followup storm for the 30th. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted January 21, 2019 Share Posted January 21, 2019 On 1/21/2019 at 11:41 PM, Gravity Wave said: Frame before. Keep in in mind the GFS thermals are unreliable. Expand 850's are fine on that frame surface is a couple degrees above 32 metro and east - it still translates to snow on that model run not rain there is plenty of cold enough air available to be drawn in after this frame Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted January 21, 2019 Share Posted January 21, 2019 On 1/21/2019 at 11:41 PM, Gravity Wave said: Frame before. Keep in in mind the GFS thermals are unreliable. Expand Would have to be some major cold air being drawn in to get snow with the low in that position especially with mixing all the way up to Maine Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 21, 2019 Share Posted January 21, 2019 On 1/21/2019 at 11:49 PM, Stormlover74 said: Would have to be some major cold air being drawn in to get snow with the low in that position especially with mixing all the way up to Maine Expand 970 low can do that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted January 21, 2019 Share Posted January 21, 2019 On 1/21/2019 at 11:53 PM, Snow88 said: 970 low can do that Expand i think many of us would still be sleet/rain on that one. It would be so close, but close ain't good enough for our area. We need to be far from the R/S line in my experience. BUt that's probably not what it will look like anyway, right Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted January 21, 2019 Share Posted January 21, 2019 On 1/21/2019 at 11:49 PM, Stormlover74 said: Would have to be some major cold air being drawn in to get snow with the low in that position especially with mixing all the way up to Maine Expand in late January with ocean water temps cool enough to not interfere much it can create its own dynamics to produce frozen just inland of the coast in that position and when it moves northeast towards eastern long island everyone turns to snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted January 22, 2019 Share Posted January 22, 2019 On 1/21/2019 at 11:59 PM, NEG NAO said: in late January with ocean water temps cool enough to not interfere much it can create its own dynamics to produce frozen just inland of the coast in that position and when it moves northeast towards eastern long island everyone turns to snow Expand Good points. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HeadInTheClouds Posted January 22, 2019 Share Posted January 22, 2019 Funny how the GFS has nada but the FV3 has a monster. Honestly don't trust either of these beyond 48 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 22, 2019 Share Posted January 22, 2019 The Para is literally a January 87 redux Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted January 22, 2019 Share Posted January 22, 2019 since this is a gulf low the gfs is tossed until 12z the morning of the storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYCweatherNOW Posted January 22, 2019 Share Posted January 22, 2019 On 1/22/2019 at 1:01 AM, forkyfork said: since this is a gulf low the gfs is tossed until 12z the morning of the storm Expand Lol forky Hey how did para do with the last storm cause gfs is useless Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYCweatherNOW Posted January 22, 2019 Share Posted January 22, 2019 On 1/22/2019 at 1:12 AM, NYCweatherNOW said: Lol forky Hey how did para do with the last storm cause gfs is useless Expand Just checked and para had the storm since last Monday it showed what happened Sunday here ....take look Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bigtenfan Posted January 22, 2019 Share Posted January 22, 2019 How many digital feet of snow has the Para had this winter so far? I would estimate several feet . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYCweatherNOW Posted January 22, 2019 Share Posted January 22, 2019 On 1/22/2019 at 12:30 AM, SnowGoose69 said: The Para is literally a January 87 redux Expand Can you tell us which exact date that storm was so I can look it up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted January 22, 2019 Share Posted January 22, 2019 On 1/22/2019 at 1:56 AM, NYCweatherNOW said: Can you tell us which exact date that storm was so I can look it up Expand Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
David-LI Posted January 22, 2019 Share Posted January 22, 2019 On 1/22/2019 at 12:30 AM, SnowGoose69 said: The Para is literally a January 87 redux Expand I was thinking 1993 but less intense. At least track looks similar. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.