John1122 Posted January 21, 2019 Share Posted January 21, 2019 There are several threats of snow/ice/rain coming over the Wednesday afternoon-Sunday period per most all modeling and area forecast offices. After the cold front passes on Wednesday there is potentially a change over and also a wave of low pressure riding up the front that may cause accumulating ice and snow on the back side. After that system passes a series of Northern stream disturbances ride down into the Valley region behind the system. These clippers have the potential to bring further accumulating snow and very cold temps to the entire forum area. From Wednesday-Sunday the GFS/Euro/FV3 gives most of the forum various amounts of accumulating frozen precip during the events. There are several to come after this potentially, so this will hopefully allow the main pattern thread to discuss the threats further down the road and the overall look through the rest of the month into February while allowing the short term threats room for disco. The latest GFS has the ice threat and it puts down 1-6+ inches of snow forum wide for the next three events, the final one has the potential to be the biggest threat of the 3 as it swings down into the GOM and may warrant a thread of it's own. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 21, 2019 Author Share Posted January 21, 2019 FV3 insists on these streaks of zr. I imagine they will be more uniform if they happen and less heavy. FV3 also more robust with it's snow from event 1 once again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 21, 2019 Author Share Posted January 21, 2019 FV3 is a day later with event #3. It is a major deep south snow storm, but the snow shield shifted well NW of 18z at 0z. This one, as I said, may be thread worthy on it's own at some point a few days from now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 21, 2019 Author Share Posted January 21, 2019 18z FV3 vs 0z showing a shift more NW with the low track. The day prior it swings down and there's a brief return flow from the GOM into our area as the low forms in the Gulf. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 21, 2019 Author Share Posted January 21, 2019 The Euro dumped snow over Alabama and Middle Tennessee in the later period here, the precip dies out with the LP in the Gulf, the storm then runs up the coast and gets Western NC. It basically does everything in it's power to not snow very much over far western or far eastern Valley areas. But Mobile Alabama and the Florida beaches near the Alabama line get 5-8 inches of snow. 3-5 in most of Alabama and Middle Tennessee. 1-2 in the eastern valley and western valley areas. The low is in the 990s in Northern Florida and there's not much more than a flurry near Johnson County as it turns up the coast. The Euro has nothing to speak of in the mid-week event. Maybe 30 minutes of frozen on the very back edge for some areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted January 21, 2019 Share Posted January 21, 2019 ECMWF Deterministic FORECAST FOR: BNA LAT= 36.12 LON= -86.68 ELE= 591 00Z JAN21 2 M 850 1000 FZING SFC SFC 6 HR SNCVR TMP TMP 850 HGT WIND PCP QPF LIQ (C) (C) THK (FT) (KTS) TYPES (IN) (IN) MON 00Z 21-JAN -4.3 -11.1 125 0 34005 0.00 MON 06Z 21-JAN -5.7 -11.1 125 0 04006 0.01 MON 12Z 21-JAN -7.4 -8.0 125 0 05005 0.00 MON 18Z 21-JAN -0.8 -4.3 127 0 08005 0.00 TUE 00Z 22-JAN -1.6 -0.6 129 3403 09004 0.00 TUE 06Z 22-JAN -2.8 3.3 131 7569 15006 0.00 TUE 12Z 22-JAN -0.5 3.2 131 8477 17009 0.00 TUE 18Z 22-JAN 7.4 2.1 131 10648 17012 0.00 WED 00Z 23-JAN 7.9 4.3 133 10535 16011 0.00 WED 06Z 23-JAN 8.9 7.1 134 9343 17014 0.00 WED 12Z 23-JAN 10.3 6.9 134 9772 18015 0.02 WED 18Z 23-JAN 12.9 7.3 135 8939 19010 0.09 THU 00Z 24-JAN 4.0 4.6 133 8398 34007 0.92 THU 06Z 24-JAN -0.8 0.1 129 2850 32008 0.37 THU 12Z 24-JAN -3.9 -4.1 127 0 32008 0.00 THU 18Z 24-JAN 2.9 -4.0 129 506 29005 0.00 FRI 00Z 25-JAN 1.6 -5.9 130 1659 29005 0.00 FRI 06Z 25-JAN -1.6 -9.3 127 0 32009 0.00 FRI 12Z 25-JAN -10.0 -10.9 124 0 32006 0.00 FRI 18Z 25-JAN -3.0 -7.8 126 0 31002 0.00 SAT 00Z 26-JAN -3.8 -3.4 128 0 16005 0.00 SAT 06Z 26-JAN -1.8 0.1 129 3485 19007 0.00 SAT 12Z 26-JAN -1.2 -3.7 129 0 18006 0.00 SAT 18Z 26-JAN 1.9 -5.0 129 510 21004 0.03 SUN 00Z 27-JAN 0.1 -6.9 128 97 34005 0.18 SUN 06Z 27-JAN -4.5 -8.0 127 0 34008 0.11 SUN 12Z 27-JAN -7.4 -8.3 126 0 36008 0.04 SUN 18Z 27-JAN -2.0 -7.3 127 0 35007 0.00 MON 00Z 28-JAN -4.6 -5.5 128 0 35006 0.00 MON 06Z 28-JAN -9.5 -4.1 128 0 35005 0.00 MON 12Z 28-JAN -7.9 -3.0 128 0 33002 0.00 MON 18Z 28-JAN 2.3 -0.6 130 1030 24002 0.00 TUE 00Z 29-JAN -0.7 1.9 131 5897 18005 0.00 TUE 06Z 29-JAN -4.2 0.9 131 5779 21006 0.00 TUE 12Z 29-JAN -2.7 -1.3 130 3957 19003 0.00 TUE 18Z 29-JAN 4.8 0.0 131 4061 16002 0.00 WED 00Z 30-JAN 2.1 -0.6 131 3544 05004 0.00 WED 06Z 30-JAN 0.7 1.0 131 4975 34003 0.01 WED 12Z 30-JAN 0.1 1.0 131 5544 35004 0.11 WED 18Z 30-JAN 2.4 2.1 131 5918 00003 0.12 THU 00Z 31-JAN 1.0 1.6 131 6304 03005 0.31 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 21, 2019 Author Share Posted January 21, 2019 The NAM is upping the coverage of freezing rain with the first system and it also has some snow around southern Kentucky, and Mid and West Tennessee. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 21, 2019 Author Share Posted January 21, 2019 The GFS has Plateau and Middle Tennessee snow, as well as Southern Kentucky. The FV3 is still a major winter storm. It's crazy how long it's held onto that solution. Northern stream energy of various strength will rotate through from Thursday - Sunday with Sunday into Monday perhaps being a bigger system, or perhaps it gets buried OTS. My point forecast from MRX has them with pretty high pops for a change over to snow/sleet then snow Wednesday night with chances of snow all the way through Sunday. Wednesday Night Rain before midnight, then rain, snow, and sleet between midnight and 1am, then snow likely after 1am. Low around 26. Chance of precipitation is 90%. Thursday A 30 percent chance of snow before 1pm. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 31. Thursday Night A 30 percent chance of snow after 1am. Partly cloudy, with a low around 17. Friday A 20 percent chance of snow. Partly sunny, with a high near 26. Friday Night Partly cloudy, with a low around 14. Saturday A 20 percent chance of snow. Partly sunny, with a high near 32. Saturday Night A 40 percent chance of snow. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 22. Sunday A 40 percent chance of snow. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 30. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 21, 2019 Author Share Posted January 21, 2019 18z NAM holds onto the freezing rain threat Wednesday evening. Even .10 zr makes for horrible travel. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 21, 2019 Author Share Posted January 21, 2019 The FV3 stuck to it's guns on post frontal snow again Wednesday. At this point I'm curious to see when/if it's going to give in before the event. This time it gives everyone from 40 north, Nash, Cookeville, Knox, Morristown to Tri a burst of heavy snow. I can't believe it's true, but if it's not, it's crazy that the upgrade to the GFS is performing this poorly, this close to the event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bango Posted January 21, 2019 Share Posted January 21, 2019 4 minutes ago, John1122 said: The FV3 stuck to it's guns on post frontal snow again Wednesday. At this point I'm curious to see when/if it's going to give in before the event. This time it gives everyone from 40 north, Nash, Cookeville, Knox, Morristown to Tri a burst of heavy snow. I can't believe it's true, but if it's not, it's crazy that the upgrade to the GFS is performing this poorly, this close to the event. The fv3 was so awesome on the december storm that i remember thinking wow this is great. Anecdotally speaking, seems to be erratic since then. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kentucky Posted January 21, 2019 Share Posted January 21, 2019 GFS continues to show heavy back side snow, for Thursday-Friday Recent history tells me, I should remain skeptical at best. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 22, 2019 Author Share Posted January 22, 2019 47 minutes ago, Kentucky said: GFS continues to show heavy back side snow, for Thursday-Friday Recent history tells me, I should remain skeptical at best. If a wave develops on the front, there's a chance, if the front just breezes on through the SE, not much will happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kentucky Posted January 22, 2019 Share Posted January 22, 2019 WPC And... https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/pwpf/wwd_accum_probs.php Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 22, 2019 Author Share Posted January 22, 2019 MRX says light accumulation here Wednesday into Thursday. That's usually their wording for 1-3 inches. Up to a 50 percent chance of snow Saturday night. The short waves rotating from the NW over the next few days change their timing with almost every run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kasper Posted January 22, 2019 Share Posted January 22, 2019 I’m going to start my Southern Valley snow dance Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bango Posted January 22, 2019 Share Posted January 22, 2019 2 hours ago, Kasper said: I’m going to start my Southern Valley snow dance Lol I hope its got the extra special sauce...the 0z gfs just cut totals to a non-event Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Icy Hot Posted January 22, 2019 Share Posted January 22, 2019 9 hours ago, John1122 said: MRX says light accumulation here Wednesday into Thursday. That's usually their wording for 1-3 inches. Up to a 50 percent chance of snow Saturday night. The short waves rotating from the NW over the next few days change their timing with almost every run. MRX not impressed in am disco. Higher elevations may get an inch of snow after we all get our 2 inches of rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Holston_River_Rambler Posted January 22, 2019 Share Posted January 22, 2019 NAM kinda opening the door again for the midweek system. Looks like maybe, as Carver's suggested, models even this near the event struggling with what to do with a wave riding up the front out of the Gulf. Euro looked similar. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 22, 2019 Author Share Posted January 22, 2019 The FV3 backed off somewhat but still has 1-3+ inch totals with the system. Still some areas of .25+ freezing rain as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AMZ8990 Posted January 22, 2019 Share Posted January 22, 2019 1 hour ago, Holston_River_Rambler said: NAM kinda opening the door again for the midweek system. Looks like maybe, as Carver's suggested, models even this near the event struggling with what to do with a wave riding up the front out of the Gulf. Euro looked similar. Saw that too, it’s nice to still have dice on the table honestly. Just wish there was more models on board with that solution. We will see though, T-24 hours! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AMZ8990 Posted January 22, 2019 Share Posted January 22, 2019 1 hour ago, John1122 said: The FV3 backed off somewhat but still has 1-3+ inch totals with the system. Still some areas of .25+ freezing rain as well. She’s or he’s a stubborn model that’s for sure. It has certainly stuck with this solution for an alarmingly long amount of time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Holston_River_Rambler Posted January 22, 2019 Share Posted January 22, 2019 18z Fv3 can't stop, won't stop; is not throwing in the towel: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kentucky Posted January 23, 2019 Share Posted January 23, 2019 WPC http://origin.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/pwpf/wwd_accum_probs.php?fpd=24&ptype=snow&amt=2&day=null Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Holston_River_Rambler Posted January 23, 2019 Share Posted January 23, 2019 They do seem rather optimistic! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 23, 2019 Author Share Posted January 23, 2019 Most modeling is now showing a heavy burst of snow on the backside, whether that actually happens or not is still to be determined. The ground is cold and will be wet, I once ready that wet ground actually wasn't as bad as warmer dry ground for sticking. I'm sure above 2500 here will do okay but not sure how the rest of us will fare. Southern Kentucky looks pretty good for getting an inch or two for this one too, at least on models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Reb Posted January 23, 2019 Share Posted January 23, 2019 4 minutes ago, John1122 said: Most modeling is now showing a heavy burst of snow on the backside, whether that actually happens or not is still to be determined. The ground is cold and will be wet, I once ready that wet ground actually wasn't as bad as warmer dry ground for sticking. I'm sure above 2500 here will do okay but not sure how the rest of us will fare. Southern Kentucky looks pretty good for getting an inch or two for this one too, at least on models. I’m more interested in mid week next week, but a quick burst of snow from this would be a nice surprise Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 23, 2019 Author Share Posted January 23, 2019 Just now, Reb said: I’m more interested in mid week next week, but a quick burst of snow from this would be a nice surprise The models are so terrible right now that I'm looking for one in the hand instead of two in the bush! Two days ago the models had 3 threats in this 5 day stretch. Now they maybe have a small threat tomorrow night and maybe snow showers this weekend. MRX has taken 3 different 50+ percent chances out of my forecast for this time period. That said, I'm holding out hope for next week but have no expectations anything actually happens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 23, 2019 Author Share Posted January 23, 2019 The 0Z NAM is back to being a significant winter storm for the middle valley areas. LP develops on the front and tracks up the Apps. Nash and Northern Middle gets some heavy icing, and 2-4 inches of snowfall on the eastern Highland Rim, Northern Middle, Southern Kentucky. North of Nashville the snow and ice overlap. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Holston_River_Rambler Posted January 23, 2019 Share Posted January 23, 2019 Looks like some of this is overperforming in TX this AM. Hopefully some of us can see a quick burst of snow across the state as it ends. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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