Jump to content

  • Member Statistics

    17,607
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    ArlyDude
    Newest Member
    ArlyDude
    Joined

Central PA - Jan/Feb 2019 Obs and Discussion

MAG5035

By MAG5035,
in Upstate New York/Pennsylvania

Recommended Posts

  • Replies 2.6k
  • Created
  • Last Reply
pasnownut

pasnownut

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, bubbler86 said:

Thats BS, I am fringed.  LOL

I will be in the south western side at 3-5 for that event while voyager in Wspt are digging out once again. This wouldn’t be the first year events have danced around Lanco. I’m rather used to it but will take whatever we can get. I know my climo well. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites
MAG5035

MAG5035

Posted
  • Author
Posted
34 minutes ago, Wmsptwx said:

1 to 3 and under .1 of ice the call for up here.

Both northern and southern Lycoming as well as Sullivan is lumped in with the NY border counties on that advisory, so I would imagine IPT itself is looking at the high end of that. And your on the 3 inch line on their map. I think you have a chance for getting into a 3-5 type snow. Problem up your way sure isn't temps, it's QPF. Best forcing and support for potentially intense rates to get the warning snows look to reside in the southern half of PA.

Early look at almost the full event on the 18z HRRR looks pretty good for all of our members in here, as well as the Pittsburgh and SW PA gang too as that model gives them the same several hour period of solid snows as us. 

19 minutes ago, Wmsptwx said:

According to nws they are riding the GFS model it appears.

I didn't see anywhere in the new short term disco that mentioned CTP riding the GFS, I did see this though.

Quote 

Across the southern half of Pennsylvania, any light snow within
an hour of the onset (between 11Z-14Z Wed) should transition to
a 3-5 hour period of moderate to heavy snow with snowfall rates
of 1 to 2 inches per hour, thanks to strong upper divergence
and low-mid level FGEN. This area of high prob GRTN 1 inch per
hour lingers the longest across the South-Central Mtns and Lower
Susq Valley, before shifting east of our SE CWA during the mid
to late afternoon hours.

Somewhat similar to the Nov 15th, 2018 Winter Storm, this
upcoming one features hefty amounts of moisture, and Max Wet
bulb temps only creeping a deg or 2 C above zero in an approx 2
kft thick layer (up around 7-9 kft AGL) for the early and mid
afternoon. Strong UVVEL may cool this slightly above freezing
layer (or it may be only deep enough to make the snowflakes
sticky) and delay the changeover to sleet during peak intensity.
This creates a potential error in snow amounts of 2-3 inches on
the low side should the changeover not occur until late
afternoon across Central PA and the Susq Valley.

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites
Voyager

Voyager

Posted
Posted
20 minutes ago, pasnownut said:

I will be in the south western side at 3-5 for that event while voyager in Wspt are digging out once again. This wouldn’t be the first year events have danced around Lanco. I’m rather used to it but will take whatever we can get. I know my climo well. 

I won't be digging. I'll be in Phoenix watching from afar...lol

Link to comment
Share on other sites
Bubbler86

Bubbler86

Posted
Posted
7 minutes ago, MAG5035 said:

Both northern and southern Lycoming as well as Sullivan is lumped in with the NY border counties on that advisory, so I would imagine IPT itself is looking at the high end of that. And your on the 3 inch line on their map. I think you have a chance for getting into a 3-5 type snow. Problem up your way sure isn't temps, it's QPF. Best forcing and support for potentially intense rates to get the warning snows look to reside in the southern half of PA.

Early look at almost the full event on the 18z HRRR looks pretty good for all of our members in here, as well as the Pittsburgh and SW PA gang too as that model gives them the same several hour period of solid snows as us. 

I didn't see anywhere in the new short term disco that mentioned CTP riding the GFS, I did see this though.

 

CTP's discussion was my basis for saying someone could get a foot....any one up to 7-8" that has an extra hour or two whether due to rates, models under doing Cad or because the US Airforce sprinkles snow down from the clouds (it all counts excpet the fake snow in Buffalo) has a shot at a special event tomorrow.

 

You mentioned the HRRR.  I just counted 10-11 panels of snow, of varying rates, for most.  If it still shows that 6 hours from now then it can probably be takens seriously.

 

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites
KPITSnow

KPITSnow

Posted
Posted
4 minutes ago, canderson said:

Also if you're curious about the jet stream above Pennsylvania, a Virgin Atlantic flight flying from LA to London hit 801 mph ground speed over the Commonwealth. 

Wow, that is really booking it!

 

maybe a dumb question...does that create a sonic boom. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites
MAG5035

MAG5035

Posted
  • Author
Posted
7 minutes ago, bubbler86 said:

CTP's discussion was my basis for saying someone could get a foot....any one up to 7-8" that has an extra hour or two whether due to rates, models under doing Cad or because the US Airforce sprinkles snow down from the clouds (it all counts excpet the fake snow in Buffalo) has a shot at a special event tomorrow.

 

You mentioned the HRRR.  I just counted 10-11 panels of snow, of varying rates, for most.  If it still shows that 6 hours from now then it can probably be takens seriously.

 

 

Yea that November storm started with a 4-7" warning here and I ended up with 10.5" and a 1 hour snowfall of 2.7" at one point. Given the moisture source, this is the type of storm that can do it. I dunno about a foot but could have a couple locales at 8-10" if rates hold up that changeover some. 

I thought the HRRR did fairly well for last weeks storm, even at this range. Only nitpick I had personally was I went to sleet a couple hours earlier.... and then stayed snow/sleet later haha. Overall I thought it handled that one pretty good over our region as a whole. GFS had me over to freezing rain/rain by 4am on that one and I didn't see any liquid until about 14 hours after that and it rushed the warmth through C-PA too fast. That's why I'm riding colder models with this similar setup. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites
MAG5035

MAG5035

Posted
  • Author
Posted
9 minutes ago, bubbler86 said:

Ha, someone is going to interpret that as "A met in the PA forum is calling for Thundersnow tomorrow". 

Yea should probably have a sarcastic disclaimer on that one haha.

5 minutes ago, canderson said:

No, it was ground speed and not nautical speed so there is a mathematical difference (don't ask me to explain, I can't lol). 

It's the difference between ground speed and air speed. The plane was traveling at it's usual cruising speed (air speed) as compared to the air around it (200mph tailwind). That's pretty insane, I guess that can be an example of the strength of the upper level jet we have with this system. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites
Blizzard of 93

Blizzard of 93

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, pasnownut said:

I will be in the south western side at 3-5 for that event while voyager in Wspt are digging out once again. This wouldn’t be the first year events have danced around Lanco. I’m rather used to it but will take whatever we can get. I know my climo well. 

Don’t worry, you will jackpot with a coastal in the next couple of weeks while others cry about getting fringed!

Link to comment
Share on other sites
Blizzard of 93

Blizzard of 93

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, MAG5035 said:

Both northern and southern Lycoming as well as Sullivan is lumped in with the NY border counties on that advisory, so I would imagine IPT itself is looking at the high end of that. And your on the 3 inch line on their map. I think you have a chance for getting into a 3-5 type snow. Problem up your way sure isn't temps, it's QPF. Best forcing and support for potentially intense rates to get the warning snows look to reside in the southern half of PA.

Early look at almost the full event on the 18z HRRR looks pretty good for all of our members in here, as well as the Pittsburgh and SW PA gang too as that model gives them the same several hour period of solid snows as us. 

I didn't see anywhere in the new short term disco that mentioned CTP riding the GFS, I did see this though.

 

That CTP discussion was very nice !

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Archived

This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.

Go to topic listing

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.
×
×
  • Create New...