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Central PA - Jan/Feb 2019 Obs and Discussion

MAG5035

By MAG5035,
in Upstate New York/Pennsylvania

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djr5001

djr5001

Posted
Posted

Looking at the hourly 12z euro panels - looks like best snowfall is expected from 9am-1pm around @MAG5035 and best for western LSV from 10am-2pm and eastern LSV 11am-3pm before mixing begins to change p-type.  What I see from these 12z runs is that the Euro brings the precip further north into PA similar to the NAM but is slower than the NAM to changeover.  The GFS is actually slower to warm aloft (occurring later in afternoon similar to Euro) than the NAM but is lacking in the northern into PA precip department until its too late.  This 12z euro run verbatim would be probably the best event to include most of this forum that we have seen in a while lol.

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Bubbler86

Bubbler86

Posted
Posted
Just now, daxx said:

I know we are focused on this event for tomorrow but the Euro really just went big for next Tuesday night into Wednesday!   Too bad it is a week away!

You had me at "Next week!".  Really hoping tomorrow is not the end.  I know we will lose much of the pack a few days after but love having more MR threats. 

 

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paweather

paweather

Posted
Posted
2 minutes ago, bubbler86 said:

Final call...

Been watching (and posting!) a lot of models the last 3 days to try and derive how they depict moisture getting up into the PA area.  It seems the trend is for two general blobs of moisture with one mostly bypassing us to the south and the other concentrating in the southern half of PA (if you toss the Nam's depiction which is much different).  Jetstream maps seem to keep the entrance regions of the jet steak a bit north of PA so it comes down to frontogenesis and qpf being thrown over our cold dome.  My opinion is that S Central PA is in the bullseye right now especially near the MD line so…all of  this is before ice.  The Euro has about 1.5" of qpf for most of us so there is a lot of ice (and some rain) on top of this. 
 

@Cashtown_Coop, @bubbler86  7-9" with some near one foot totals near the area.

@MAG5035  6-8"

@CarlislePaWx @Blizzard of 93 5-7"

@canderson @djr5001 @sauss06, @2001kx, @paweather, @daxx, @Voyager 4-6"

@Wmsptwx  @pasnownut, @pawatch 3-5"

 

 

Nice Bubbler. Good luck!

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daxx

daxx

Posted
Posted
5 minutes ago, bubbler86 said:

Final call...

Been watching (and posting!) a lot of models the last 3 days to try and derive how they depict moisture getting up into the PA area.  It seems the trend is for two general blobs of moisture with one mostly bypassing us to the south and the other concentrating in the southern half of PA (if you toss the Nam's depiction which is much different).  Jetstream maps seem to keep the entrance regions of the jet steak a bit north of PA so it comes down to frontogenesis and qpf being thrown over our cold dome.  My opinion is that S Central PA is in the bullseye right now especially near the MD line so…all of  this is before ice.  The Euro has about 1.5" of qpf for most of us so there is a lot of ice (and some rain) on top of this. 
 

@Cashtown_Coop, @bubbler86  7-9" with some near one foot totals near the area.

@MAG5035  6-8"

@CarlislePaWx @Blizzard of 93 5-7"

@canderson @djr5001 @sauss06, @2001kx, @paweather, @daxx, @Voyager 4-6"

@Wmsptwx  @pasnownut, @pawatch 3-5"

 

 

Nice I'll take that and like it!

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Blizzard of 93

Blizzard of 93

Posted
Posted
12 minutes ago, bubbler86 said:

You had me at "Next week!".  Really hoping tomorrow is not the end.  I know we will lose much of the pack a few days after but love having more MR threats. 

 

Did you see the rest of the 12z GFS run for the first week of March? I know it’s the GFS, but that would be awesome!

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djr5001

djr5001

Posted
Posted

If winds can calm around sunset - tonight is a great example of sites like York airport (KTHV) that will see temperatures drop 5-10 degrees in the hour surrounding sunset (check 5pm and 6pm obs).  With dew points this low and starting the night with clear skies (and hopefully calm winds), most of the region should have no trouble seeing temperatures dip into the mid to lower 20s fairly early tonight before the cloud cover arrives ahead of the start of the event.  The event last week had us hovering around the low 30s leading into the start of the event, correct?

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MAG5035

MAG5035

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Posted

That long range storm on the Euro is about the timeframe where we should be seeing the much awaited pattern change that might deliver threats from a much more traditional alignment. That cutter we look poised to endure over the weekend might be a catalyst to change our pattern alignment. PNA forecast to finally reverse in the next 6-10 days with the MJO wandering around P8. The SOI has also went off a cliff, now at -7.84 on the 30 day average and today's daily contribution was -43.61. One would think the stage appears to be set for perhaps an active first half of March. 

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Bubbler86

Bubbler86

Posted
Posted
Just now, canderson said:

Timing for this tomorrow is a nightmare scenario for schools/employers. Snow doesn't seem to get heavy in the HBG area until the mid morning and then ramp up and then to ice - so do you cancel with nothing on the ground and just cross fingers for nothing to go wrong? 

I think they have to cancel if there is a WSW and whatever forecaster they use is predicting snow and Ice into that night.  

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Bubbler86

Bubbler86

Posted
Posted
6 minutes ago, djr5001 said:

If winds can calm around sunset - tonight is a great example of sites like York airport (KTHV) that will see temperatures drop 5-10 degrees in the hour surrounding sunset (check 5pm and 6pm obs).  With dew points this low and starting the night with clear skies (and hopefully calm winds), most of the region should have no trouble seeing temperatures dip into the mid to lower 20s fairly early tonight before the cloud cover arrives ahead of the start of the event.  The event last week had us hovering around the low 30s leading into the start of the event, correct?

I reemember doing some posts on the temps and DP's as that system approached ast week.  Not going to dig it out but yea I think both will be 3-5 degrees colder at onset this time.  I remember mentioning Sayre and saying temps would be in the low 20's....this time temps would be around 17 up there from where our funnel would be coming.   

 

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djr5001

djr5001

Posted
Posted
4 minutes ago, bubbler86 said:

I think they have to cancel if there is a WSW and whatever forecaster they use is predicting snow and Ice into that night.  

Forecast maps were just updated so I have a feeling the warnings are incoming at any moment now.  They now have Carlisle and Lebanon in a 6-8" range with Harrisburg, York, Lancaster, Johnstown, Altoona, State College, Pottsville, and more all at 4-6" plus ice

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MAG5035

MAG5035

Posted
  • Author
Posted
Just now, djr5001 said:

Forecast maps were just updated so I have a feeling the warnings are incoming at any moment now.  They now have Carlisle and Lebanon in a 6-8" range with Harrisburg, York, Lancaster, Johnstown, Altoona, State College, Pottsville, and more all at 4-6" plus ice

Yea just issued, watch area to warnings and rest of CWA advisories.

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Blizzard of 93

Blizzard of 93

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, djr5001 said:

and just like that Winter Storm Warnings have been issued

Yes indeed!

Winter Storm Warning 

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service State College PA
234 PM EST Tue Feb 19 2019

PAZ027-028-056-057-059-063>066-200745-
/O.UPG.KCTP.WS.A.0003.190220T1100Z-190221T1100Z/
/O.NEW.KCTP.WS.W.0003.190220T1100Z-190221T1100Z/
Mifflin-Juniata-Perry-Dauphin-Lebanon-Cumberland-Adams-York-
Lancaster-
Including the cities of Lewistown, Mifflintown, Newport,
Harrisburg, Hershey, Lebanon, Carlisle, Gettysburg, York,
and Lancaster
234 PM EST Tue Feb 19 2019

...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 6 AM WEDNESDAY TO 6 AM EST
THURSDAY...

* WHAT...Heavy snow, then heavy mixed precipitation expected.
  Total snow and sleet accumulations of 4 to 6 inches, with
  localized amounts up to 8 inches, and ice accumulations of one
  tenth to two tenths of an inch are expected.

* WHERE...Portions of South-Central Pennsylvania.

* WHEN...The heaviest snow will fall at a rate of 1 to 2 inches
  per hour for 4 to 5 hours during the late morning and early
  afternoon hours, before changing to sleet during the afternoon,
  then over to lighter freezing rain by Wednesday evening.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Plan on difficult travel conditions,
  including during the morning commute on Wednesday. Be prepared
  for significant reductions in visibility at times.
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sauss06

sauss06

Posted
Posted
12 minutes ago, djr5001 said:

Forecast maps were just updated so I have a feeling the warnings are incoming at any moment now.  They now have Carlisle and Lebanon in a 6-8" range with Harrisburg, York, Lancaster, Johnstown, Altoona, State College, Pottsville, and more all at 4-6" plus ice

is the ice still .4?

 

Edit- disregard, i just saw it

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