kerplunk Posted February 12, 2019 Share Posted February 12, 2019 Heavy sleet and 29º Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted February 12, 2019 Share Posted February 12, 2019 8 minutes ago, sauss06 said: we're gonna nickel and dime our way to seasonal average Yes, I think we will at least get to average seasonal snow total. MDT is currently about 4 inches above normal snow through today’s date. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted February 12, 2019 Share Posted February 12, 2019 Props to the NAM. It fared well. Well minus that giant dryslot - it did well on the transition. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anotherman Posted February 12, 2019 Share Posted February 12, 2019 Sleet in southern York County. Surprised by that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted February 12, 2019 Share Posted February 12, 2019 12 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said: Yes, I think we will at least get to average seasonal snow total. MDT is currently about 4 inches above normal snow through today’s date. If MDT finishes below normal with the pattern being shown in the mid term models (no more 10-15 days out, we should be seeing threats in the 5-10 day frame) then it will be a spectacular fail by these same models. MDT should be getting at least 10 more inches over the second half of the month if just 1 or 2 of the Choo Choo Train of storms works out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ruin Posted February 12, 2019 Share Posted February 12, 2019 We are now back to a mix some sleet frz rain a little snow. this makes me think I know why we end up having sleep frz rain cause the air it falls through is above freezing then goes back below freezing. but how does it end up snowing sleeting and frz rain all a the same time? I never heard a legit explanation or any for the matter on this. Normally they just say when its all snow its or all sleet or all frz rain and show the graphic of the freezing column. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm Posted February 12, 2019 Share Posted February 12, 2019 Very impressive CAD going on.Think that’s why some area are seeing sleet and snow in heavier returns.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sauss06 Posted February 12, 2019 Share Posted February 12, 2019 6 minutes ago, Ruin said: We are now back to a mix some sleet frz rain a little snow. this makes me think I know why we end up having sleep frz rain cause the air it falls through is above freezing then goes back below freezing. but how does it end up snowing sleeting and frz rain all a the same time? I never heard a legit explanation or any for the matter on this. Normally they just say when its all snow its or all sleet or all frz rain and show the graphic of the freezing column. I was just out, and its pouring sleet and accumulating Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted February 12, 2019 Share Posted February 12, 2019 58 minutes ago, bubbler86 said: Mecs or bust. Anycs or bust...... FYP Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted February 12, 2019 Share Posted February 12, 2019 1 hour ago, bubbler86 said: I have pretty much stopped looking at the FV3. I guess if all else shows bad I will look at it for any clue of a different outcome. You mentioned storm path and amde me think of an off shoot thought that any of the models I look at I do view the 500MB maps and do some extrapolating to try and figure out what the model is trying to predict but not as much as you do or or the MA LR/500MB map discussion thread. There is a definitely a science to it and trying to match 500MB profiles with actual surface results is a valid forecast method but I think too much time is wasted in that field and in reading AFD's you do not see mention of it as much any more. Thats what makes this fun. We all have "strengths" to add to the discussion, and learn from each other. If i have a strength, i'd say I'm better at mid/long range than short. I'm getting better w/ thermal profiles and meso features, but in truth, its just a semi educated guess for me though, and I'd not try to claim otherwise. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted February 12, 2019 Share Posted February 12, 2019 Forecast here prob going to bust on the low side of sleet accumulation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted February 12, 2019 Share Posted February 12, 2019 33 minutes ago, Ruin said: We are now back to a mix some sleet frz rain a little snow. this makes me think I know why we end up having sleep frz rain cause the air it falls through is above freezing then goes back below freezing. but how does it end up snowing sleeting and frz rain all a the same time? I never heard a legit explanation or any for the matter on this. Normally they just say when its all snow its or all sleet or all frz rain and show the graphic of the freezing column. dynamic cooling and the "mixing" in the mid levels of the atmoshphere (700-850-925Mb). As temps are marginal, you will see during peak precip that the column cools just enough to support all types. Look at the sounding below and you see the warm nose to the right of 0 (bottom of graph - then look to the left for the layers of the atmosphere at 700-800Mb and you see it goes above 0. That is enough to melt the snow, but during good precip, it can be overcome and hold all frozen precip types. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted February 12, 2019 Share Posted February 12, 2019 and verbatim above that is a good sleet profile as the nose is small, and youll see the bottom of the graph showing 25 deg which is near the surface. Hope that helps a bit. Nut Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ruin Posted February 12, 2019 Share Posted February 12, 2019 30 minutes ago, sauss06 said: I was just out, and its pouring sleet and accumulating i was out cause my silly dad always shovels snow right around the time we get frz rain its just silly if you ask me. id rather walk on snow covered in a crust of ice vs ice on sidewalk only. but for me we have a dry slot for the 30-50 mins i was out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted February 12, 2019 Share Posted February 12, 2019 1 hour ago, canderson said: Props to the NAM. It fared well. Well minus that giant dryslot - it did well on the transition. I agree with @Flatheadsickness There was no dry slot in the Harrisburg area! Look at the hourly Obs for MDT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted February 12, 2019 Share Posted February 12, 2019 10 minutes ago, pasnownut said: and verbatim above that is a good sleet profile as the nose is small, and youll see the bottom of the graph showing 25 deg which is near the surface. Hope that helps a bit. Nut Yes & the heavy precip on the radar has been sleet here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CarlislePaWx Posted February 12, 2019 Share Posted February 12, 2019 Hi guys again. Back up. My temp unfortunately has just gone above 32 to reach 32.2F, thus ending the potential for freezing rain (more or less). However, there has definitely been sleet. My wife shoveled a little bit of our front sidewalk back around 8:00 and it is currently covered in sleet (it's white). I was initially thinking it had snowed again but then I opened the door and heard the pinging. I'd say there had to be at least 0.3" of sleet to make the walk look white. I'm going to add that to my snow totals. The pinging is picking back up again. I hear it from inside. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ruin Posted February 12, 2019 Share Posted February 12, 2019 hitting 32 it still can freeze rain tho im not following? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted February 12, 2019 Share Posted February 12, 2019 4 minutes ago, Ruin said: hitting 32 it still can freeze rain tho im not following? look at what i posted above. I did that for you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted February 12, 2019 Share Posted February 12, 2019 DirecTV just went out. Pouring sleet will do that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ruin Posted February 12, 2019 Share Posted February 12, 2019 it was said hitting 32.2 can still freeze tho its only at 32.9 where the action of freezing stops if memory servers Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CarlislePaWx Posted February 12, 2019 Share Posted February 12, 2019 8 minutes ago, pasnownut said: look at what i posted above. I did that for you. He was referring to my comment about the zr stopping here now that I went above 32.0. 1 minute ago, Ruin said: it was said hitting 32.2 can still freeze tho its only at 32.9 where the action of freezing stops if memory servers Yes, that is why I said "more or less". I didn't mean exactly that zr could not still accumulate. BTW, I'm now 32.4. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ruin Posted February 12, 2019 Share Posted February 12, 2019 Oh ok no worries its why i was a bit puzzled haha yeah heavy sleet now temp went from 32 to 30 I dont have a fancy . temp gauge tho Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CarlislePaWx Posted February 12, 2019 Share Posted February 12, 2019 Question for Blizz or djr... Does the NWS count sleet as snow in its snowfall measurements? I've forgotten. I mentioned I was going to add the 0.3" of sleet I had to my 1.0" of snow since midnight (making my snowfall measurement 1.3"), but I won't do that if that's not the official way it's measured. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted February 12, 2019 Share Posted February 12, 2019 7 minutes ago, CarlislePaWx said: Question for Blizz or djr... Does the NWS count sleet as snow in its snowfall measurements? I've forgotten. I mentioned I was going to add the 0.3" of sleet I had to my 1.0" of snow since midnight (making my snowfall measurement 1.3"), but I won't do that if that's not the official way it's measured. I know the answer but I'll let them share....... Ok no I wont. From the NWS weenie snow measure guide. See in bold https://www.weather.gov/media/ffc/snow_measurement_guidelines.pdf 'Measuring Snowfall Snowfall is measured to the nearest tenth of an inch. Measure the greatest amount of snowfall that has accumulated on your snowboard since the last observation. You can measure on a wooden deck or ground if a snowboard is not available. Snowfall should not be measured more than 4 times in 24 hours. You can measure the hourly snowfall rate, but do not clean off your board each hour. Only clean off the board when you take one of the four daily measurements. Once the snow ends, add up the measurements from each time the snowboard was cleaned to reach a storm total. Special cases: - Snow falls and accumulates on the snowboard, but then melts. In this case, the snowfall is the greatest depth of snow observed on the board before it begins to melt. If this occurs several times, measure the snowfall after each snow shower and add each measurement for the total snowfall. - Snow falls and melts continuously on the board. In this case, if the snow never reaches a depth of a tenth of an inch, then a trace of snowfall is recorded. - Snow has blown or drifted onto the snowboard. In this case, take several measurements from around the yard where the snow has not drifted, being careful only to measure new snow. Take an average of the various measurements to arrive at a total. - Sleet counts towards total snowfall, freezing rain accumulation does not.'' Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rescape Posted February 12, 2019 Share Posted February 12, 2019 Looks like we're just about finishing up with frozen precip here. But if you go east up 81 or 78 you'll run into a zr/snow mess. Roads look to be horrible up there for the next 3 or 4 hours at least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted February 12, 2019 Share Posted February 12, 2019 sleeting like crazy here in Etown. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CarlislePaWx Posted February 12, 2019 Share Posted February 12, 2019 3 minutes ago, pasnownut said: I know the answer but I'll let them share....... Ok no I wont. From the NWS weenie snow measure guide. See in bold https://www.weather.gov/media/ffc/snow_measurement_guidelines.pdf 'Measuring Snowfall Snowfall is measured to the nearest tenth of an inch. Measure the greatest amount of snowfall that has accumulated on your snowboard since the last observation. You can measure on a wooden deck or ground if a snowboard is not available. Snowfall should not be measured more than 4 times in 24 hours. You can measure the hourly snowfall rate, but do not clean off your board each hour. Only clean off the board when you take one of the four daily measurements. Once the snow ends, add up the measurements from each time the snowboard was cleaned to reach a storm total. Special cases: - Snow falls and accumulates on the snowboard, but then melts. In this case, the snowfall is the greatest depth of snow observed on the board before it begins to melt. If this occurs several times, measure the snowfall after each snow shower and add each measurement for the total snowfall. - Snow falls and melts continuously on the board. In this case, if the snow never reaches a depth of a tenth of an inch, then a trace of snowfall is recorded. - Snow has blown or drifted onto the snowboard. In this case, take several measurements from around the yard where the snow has not drifted, being careful only to measure new snow. Take an average of the various measurements to arrive at a total. - Sleet counts towards total snowfall, freezing rain accumulation does not.'' Thank you, nut!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted February 12, 2019 Share Posted February 12, 2019 All rain now in Etown Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ruin Posted February 12, 2019 Share Posted February 12, 2019 3 minutes ago, pasnownut said: All rain now in Etown strange radar was showing heavy pinks just like mins ago and im close to etown so gasp Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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