djr5001 Posted February 12, 2019 Share Posted February 12, 2019 22 minutes ago, Cashtown_Coop said: This is for Adams: WHAT...Snow then heavy mixed precipitation. Additional snow accumulations of 3 to 4 inches and ice accumulations of up to one half of an inch are expected. 20 minutes ago, pasnownut said: add York and Lancaster as well. FYI - counties were wrong in the alerts that went out a half hour ago. Adams/York/Lancaster have been corrected to 3-4” and .1-.2” ice not .5” Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cashtown_Coop Posted February 12, 2019 Share Posted February 12, 2019 3 minutes ago, djr5001 said: FYI - counties were wrong in the alerts that went out a half hour ago. Adams/York/Lancaster have been corrected to 3-4” and .1-.2” ice not .5” That seems more reasonable Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Winter Wizard Posted February 12, 2019 Share Posted February 12, 2019 Already moderate snow in State College. Encouraging to see the radar blossoming from Bellefonte to Johnstown already. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted February 12, 2019 Share Posted February 12, 2019 35 minutes ago, canderson said: I jinxed it, back to super light snow. It’s melting quicker than falling again. You must live next to a super heated wind tunnel ! The snow is sticking to everything here & coming down at a good rate. MDT at 9pm had snow with .75 mile visibility. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted February 12, 2019 Share Posted February 12, 2019 Here is the updated Winter Storm warning for the Harrisburg area & the remainder of CTP outside of the far southern tier of counties. URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service State College PA 843 PM EST Mon Feb 11 2019 PAZ017>019-026>028-036-056-057-059-063-121600- /O.CON.KCTP.WS.W.0002.000000T0000Z-190212T2300Z/ Clearfield-Northern Centre-Southern Centre-Huntingdon-Mifflin- Juniata-Franklin-Perry-Dauphin-Lebanon-Cumberland- Including the cities of DuBois, Clearfield, Philipsburg, State College, Huntingdon, Mount Union, Lewistown, Mifflintown, Chambersburg, Newport, Harrisburg, Hershey, Lebanon, and Carlisle 843 PM EST Mon Feb 11 2019 ...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EST TUESDAY... * WHAT...Heavy snow then mixed precipitation. Additional snow and sleet accumulations of 4 to 6 inches and ice accumulations of up to two tenths of an inch are expected. * WHERE...Clearfield, Northern Centre, Southern Centre, Mifflin and Juniata Counties. * WHEN...Until 6 PM EST Tuesday. The snow will transition to sleet during the predawn hours of Tuesday, before changing to mainly freezing rain during the late morning and afternoon hours Tuesday. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Travel will become dangerous due to the combination of precipitation types. Be prepared for significant reductions in visibility at times. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CarlislePaWx Posted February 12, 2019 Share Posted February 12, 2019 I'm missing out on the heavier stuff. The greens went south of me this morning. They're north of me now, this evening. Best I've got is dark blue but even staying in that has been a challenge. Currently, temp is 30.7, almost moderate snow falling with 0.8" new snow on the board (round 2), 2.5" storms total. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted February 12, 2019 Author Share Posted February 12, 2019 Was out and about the last couple hours. Nice moderate to heavy snow falling and 1.7" new since it started back up late this afternoon (2.6" total). Roads are trashed. 30ºF Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted February 12, 2019 Share Posted February 12, 2019 The lightest of snow just started here, so round 2 appears to be getting underway in the Skook. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted February 12, 2019 Author Share Posted February 12, 2019 43 minutes ago, djr5001 said: Yea they are continuing the warning - likely pushed alerts because they messed up the counties yet again today and had York/Lancaster with a half inch ice instead of Johnstown/Altoona I don't know why they didn't just bring the whole area up on warnings first thing this morning. It really hasn't been any mystery the last few days about this being a high impact event with both snow and ice thresholds near warning levels and it was evident this morning that the southern tier where it will change over the earliest wasn't really going to have a split 2 round event from last night and todays snowfall. Also a weird grouping having Blair/Bedford/Fulton lumped with the Laurel's counties (Cambria and Somerset). Especially Blair County, the HRRR has been steadfast on not even mixing from snow until 6 or 7am in this area and point and click has a complete zr transition by 4am. I don't think I'll get a half inch of ice here, that's probably going to happen on the Laurel's ridges. If the depth of the cold air is enough that the Laurel's have such a high ice potential, it's probable that Blair/Bedford/Fulton is going to have sleet mixing or perhaps a predominant p-type for awhile. Blair Co and Altoona probably should have been lumped with the group of warning counties that has UNV and MDT in it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CarlislePaWx Posted February 12, 2019 Share Posted February 12, 2019 Can we rely on the HRRR during the event for expectations? That may sound like a silly question which has an obvious answer. I would assume "yes", and, "that's what that model is made for." If that is the case then the 01Z run is giving me 5" of snow and 0.17" of ZR. I'll take it! BTW, it still has my surface temp at 32F at 0Z Wed. By then the storm is nearly over. Meanwhile, the 3km 0Z NAM wants to run a huge dry slot all through central PA during a good chunk of tomorrow. Wonder how that will turn out??? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Winter Wizard Posted February 12, 2019 Share Posted February 12, 2019 15 minutes ago, CarlislePaWx said: Can we rely on the HRRR during the event for expectations? That may sound like a silly question which has an obvious answer. I would assume "yes", and, "that's what that model is made for." If that is the case then the 01Z run is giving me 5" of snow and 0.17" of ZR. I'll take it! BTW, it still has my surface temp at 32F at 0Z Wed. By then the storm is nearly over. Meanwhile, the 3km 0Z NAM wants to run a huge dry slot all through central PA during a good chunk of tomorrow. Wonder how that will turn out??? That makes sense given the transfer of energy from the primary low to the secondary low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cashtown_Coop Posted February 12, 2019 Share Posted February 12, 2019 M5.5” light snow 28.9f im going to take a quick nap before my 1a board clean. Good luck everyone Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted February 12, 2019 Share Posted February 12, 2019 29 minutes ago, CarlislePaWx said: Can we rely on the HRRR during the event for expectations? That may sound like a silly question which has an obvious answer. I would assume "yes", and, "that's what that model is made for." If that is the case then the 01Z run is giving me 5" of snow and 0.17" of ZR. I'll take it! BTW, it still has my surface temp at 32F at 0Z Wed. By then the storm is nearly over. Meanwhile, the 3km 0Z NAM wants to run a huge dry slot all through central PA during a good chunk of tomorrow. Wonder how that will turn out??? These short range models are usually the best during an event. Here is the latest HRRR & RAP Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ruin Posted February 12, 2019 Share Posted February 12, 2019 if you guys look to our south west and that dry slot in wv parts of md. if when that hits us and stops snowing the temps will bump up by the time we get precip back it will be sleet frz rain. ive seen it happen to many times. to keep the snow the longest we cant not get dry slotted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted February 12, 2019 Share Posted February 12, 2019 The precip is filling in to our south & approaching rapidly from the west. I think we will not have any trouble with a dry slot here in PA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CarlislePaWx Posted February 12, 2019 Share Posted February 12, 2019 9 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said: These short range models are usually the best during an event. Here is the latest HRRR & RAP Thanks for the maps! Looks like they pretty much match up. RAP looks a bit more generous UNV/Central otherwise about the same. The single heaviest hour during the entire period gave me only 0.5" so it's kind of nickel and diming our way there overnight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ruin Posted February 12, 2019 Share Posted February 12, 2019 23 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said: The precip is filling in to our south & approaching rapidly from the west. I think we will not have any trouble with a dry slot here in PA. true its back building over ohio and points south west. but every time we are in this set up if we get dry slotted its game over for the snow. it either goes over to ice or rain depending on the temps and im still at 32. i was hoping some heavy precip would cool us off more then 1 degree. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Winter Wizard Posted February 12, 2019 Share Posted February 12, 2019 As of 4z, here is the approximate rain/snow line across our area. It appears to be on the doorstep of Bedford and propagating slowly northeastward. Looks like the 0z NAM so far has been pretty spot on as far as the mixing line in our area as well as 850 temperatures across the region, although it did miss the initial precip across the PHL area and South Jersey. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted February 12, 2019 Share Posted February 12, 2019 Gonnna have to snow heavy to get to 5” before 7 am ... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ruin Posted February 12, 2019 Share Posted February 12, 2019 big damn surprise over eastern PA includding Harrisburg snow shut off look at radar yep it dried up. the damn weatherman was right again on us only getting 2-3 inchs over night. just cause of dry slotting lol im going to bed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CarlislePaWx Posted February 12, 2019 Share Posted February 12, 2019 21 minutes ago, canderson said: Gonnna have to snow heavy to get to 5” before 7 am … Unfortunately I agree with you, but let's see how it plays out. The HRRR seemed to imply that there would be a heavy burst of snow over the MDT region around 12Z just before the change to sleet moved in. It keeps us as all snow for another 7 hours. There is still time for the hole to fill back in and snow to redevelop before the transition begins. I just took my midnight ob and measured 1.5" of new snow on the board which gives me a storms total of 3.2". It's still snowing light to moderately, less than 0.5"/hr. Temp hasn't budged for the last 4 hours, sitting at 30.6 degrees. I'll be back in the morning with an update. Good luck to all overnight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted February 12, 2019 Share Posted February 12, 2019 I am really not sure what you guys are looking at now? The Radar looks good & is filling in nicely. Every reporting station from I-80 to the south is reporting some type of precip. It is supposed to snow in the Harrisburg area until at least 6 am. I think we get a few more inches of snow before the mixing begins. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Flatheadsickness Posted February 12, 2019 Share Posted February 12, 2019 I can see Harrisburg from my house it never quit snowing here I do see there was a hole over the Harrisburg area about the size of Pinchot lake The dry slot if that is what is was is slowly filling in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
djr5001 Posted February 12, 2019 Share Posted February 12, 2019 Radar returns are going to look like the precip is dropping off as it moves from what is falling as rain/mix to the snow here east of the mountains so I’m guessing that is what is making it look like its drying up. @canderson how much is in the city? I am back up to 4” and somehow must be doing better than both you and Carlisle Just now, Blizzard of 93 said: I am really not sure what you guys are looking at now? The Radar looks good & is filling in nicely. Every reporting station from I-80 to the south is reporting some type of precip. It is supposed to snow in the Harrisburg area until at least 6 am. I think we get a few more inches of snow before the mixing begins. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Flatheadsickness Posted February 12, 2019 Share Posted February 12, 2019 Been outside the whole time until now. I am heading back out because its still snowing here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted February 12, 2019 Share Posted February 12, 2019 The heavier precip is filling in & moving toward the LSV. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Winter Wizard Posted February 12, 2019 Share Posted February 12, 2019 Just measured 2.6 inches in downtown State College. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted February 12, 2019 Share Posted February 12, 2019 Here are the latest runs of the HRRR & RAP short range models. Both show a solid 3-4 more inches of snow for most of CTP. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Flatheadsickness Posted February 12, 2019 Share Posted February 12, 2019 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Flatheadsickness Posted February 12, 2019 Share Posted February 12, 2019 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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