Bubbler86 Posted February 11, 2019 Share Posted February 11, 2019 I have not had an update from my wife in about an hour and 1/2 but think Rouzerville is around 3" right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
djr5001 Posted February 11, 2019 Share Posted February 11, 2019 ://twitter.com/NWSStateCollege/status/1095025865572974592 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Santa Clause Posted February 11, 2019 Share Posted February 11, 2019 Not sure CTP agrees on IPT being winner, map has less snow here than Hburg and burbs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted February 11, 2019 Share Posted February 11, 2019 FWIW it’s 34 degrees in Harrisburg downtown right now. Snow is melting Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pawatch Posted February 11, 2019 Share Posted February 11, 2019 Someone care to explain their thinking here...Just a weird map. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted February 11, 2019 Author Share Posted February 11, 2019 Patiently waiting to get back into the game here, haha. Been about a 14 hour lull. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted February 11, 2019 Share Posted February 11, 2019 31 minutes ago, pawatch said: Someone care to explain their thinking here...Just a weird map. In their defense a lot of modeling has had that bullseye about where they show it on their map... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sauss06 Posted February 11, 2019 Share Posted February 11, 2019 starting 37 minutes ago, pawatch said: Someone care to explain their thinking here...Just a weird map. the entire storm is weird. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sauss06 Posted February 11, 2019 Share Posted February 11, 2019 i guess the lack of posting says it all in here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Santa Clause Posted February 11, 2019 Share Posted February 11, 2019 Yea pawatch, surprised me...CAD is our bread and butter, yet lower totals than Hburg and environs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
irvingtwosmokes Posted February 11, 2019 Share Posted February 11, 2019 51 minutes ago, MAG5035 said: Patiently waiting to get back into the game here, haha. Been about a 14 hour lull. Well this could get real nasty for us MAG PAZ024-025-120130- /O.UPG.KCTP.WW.Y.0013.000000T0000Z-190212T1700Z/ /O.EXB.KCTP.WS.W.0002.000000T0000Z-190212T2100Z/ Cambria-Blair- Including the cities of Johnstown and Altoona 1230 PM EST Mon Feb 11 2019 ...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 PM EST TUESDAY... * WHAT...Heavy mixed precipitation. Additional snow accumulations of 3 to 5 inches and ice accumulations of up to one half of an inch are expected. * WHERE...Cambria and Blair Counties. * WHEN...Until 4 PM EST Tuesday. Snow will mix with sleet and freezing rain later today and become all freezing rain this evening and tonight. The temperatures will warm slightly Tuesday to change the precipitation to plain rain during the mid afternoon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ruin Posted February 11, 2019 Share Posted February 11, 2019 havent had a real lul here we will go 30 mins without snow then a snow shower or light snow for a hour hits no real accumulation. a tick above freezing at 33 the forecast tho was for 36 gonna bust low esp when the snow moves in temps will drop a few im thinking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Winter Wizard Posted February 11, 2019 Share Posted February 11, 2019 Honestly confused why CTP raised UNV, if anything I’ve become more bearish based on modeling trends today. With an anticipated transition around 12z, I’m struggling to see how we get to 7 inches even if it includes sleet unless there are crazy snow rates to start, which isn’t really supported by VV or forcing. I would also be mindful of a dry slot across C PA late Tuesday as the secondary low develops. I think this would limit our window for plain rain locally at least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cashtown_Coop Posted February 11, 2019 Share Posted February 11, 2019 Just hit 4” Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted February 11, 2019 Share Posted February 11, 2019 2 minutes ago, Cashtown_Coop said: Just hit 4” Damn good for you. So far a non event for Harrisburg - no accumulation since early this am. We will see how rates tonight get and hopefully reach the WSW criteria. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted February 11, 2019 Author Share Posted February 11, 2019 4 minutes ago, Wmsptwx said: Yea pawatch, surprised me...CAD is our bread and butter, yet lower totals than Hburg and environs. I think QPF could be a reason, best QPF for this system has been in western and southern PA. That bullseye in the central mountains likely is a combination of best QPF vs longest duration of frozen. Conversely, I don't know about the higher totals to the northeast of IPT. Models are showing a weakness in QPF in the BGM region into NE PA. Either way, only talking the difference of a couple inches. I know their daytime discussion was talking about lackluster snow ratios with this too (starting 10:1) as well. Quote .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY/... Many locations will have ice by the time it is all over later Tues, but the impacts due to ice should be less serious over the NE half of the fcst area due to the snow and sleet first. Snow does look like it will be the predominant p-type for the NE through much of the day. SLRs during the event will decrease as the air gets warmer aloft and since sleet may occur. SLRs could finish as low as 6:1 with a deep, moist, cold layer under a mid-cloud DGZ. The soundings do not look like sleet to me, more like a very wet snow or change then to rain (ZR if the sfcs are still frozen). The warm air attempts to move northward, but many factors seem to be conspiring against a decent warm nose aloft over much of the area tonight. The column does warm (pretty much isothermally). The snow rates never seem to be very high. It`s a very gradual precip. Per the latest HREF progs, the highest chance of 1"+/hr rates would be 00-06Z in the central counties then 06-14Z in the Nrn/NErn counties. Impacts to Tues morning commute will be widespread and likely significant. It could still be messy in the late aftn/early evening, esp in the northeastern half of the area where precip will still be going. But, the type of precip during the preceding hours is key to how much travel conditions will improve. Half or more of the area could be rain by then, but the slop which fell before hand could keep it slushy even there. Maxes will occur very late in the day (perhaps not even until late evening). Watching their discussions and products from last night to this afternoon, it seems the day shift is opting impact over splitting hairs on warning criteria. The night crew originally put south central and all LSV in advisories for just about the same thing (bumped up ice in the south central) I kind of agree with the widespread warning zone, most are going to get at least near warning criteria snow IMO, with the ice impacts on top. The ones that don't (Laurels) are going to easily see warning criteria freezing rain. It's a high impacting weather event. Also complicating is the the fact that some of the southern tier has not really had a break in precip while others have had a long lasting lull. York/Lancaster counties were kept in advisories but they have benefitted from the early snows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Santa Clause Posted February 11, 2019 Share Posted February 11, 2019 Yeah, just seemed odd because it's one set up we do best in, plus this thing looks pretty dang juiced. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ruin Posted February 11, 2019 Share Posted February 11, 2019 lol is this in total for both phases of the storm? cause i all ready have slightly over 2 inchs. its forecast to snow from about 430pm till 12pm 1pm tomorrow before change over. thats almost 24 hours. some snow is said to be mod to heavy bands. I doubt we only get 2.2 inchs unless the mother of all dry slots hit us. oh damn i did it we gonna get dry slotted. btw im talking about the new nam Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CarlislePaWx Posted February 11, 2019 Share Posted February 11, 2019 3 minutes ago, Ruin said: lol is this in total for both phases of the storm? cause i all ready have slightly over 2 inchs. its forecast to snow from about 430pm till 12pm 1pm tomorrow before change over. thats almost 24 hours. some snow is said to be mod to heavy bands. I doubt we only get 2.2 inchs unless the mother of all dry slots hit us. oh damn i did it we gonna get dry slotted. btw im talking about the new nam The totals in the current forecast do not include what fell last night into this morning. Their current snowfall projection maps indicate a start time of this afternoon. Also, it is very likely that LSV is into the change / mixed precip before or by 12Z Tuesay (7:00AM). So you are basically looking at the next 12 to 14 hours for accumulating snowfall to reach projected amounts. Sun needs to set and rates need to pick up to drop temp below 32. I'm currently sitting at 32.9 and have been above freezing for the past 5 hours. Peaked at 33.7 before dropping back down. My 1.8" of snow from overnight has melted to less than 1/2 remaining. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted February 11, 2019 Author Share Posted February 11, 2019 50 minutes ago, irvingtwosmokes said: Well this could get real nasty for us MAG PAZ024-025-120130- /O.UPG.KCTP.WW.Y.0013.000000T0000Z-190212T1700Z/ /O.EXB.KCTP.WS.W.0002.000000T0000Z-190212T2100Z/ Cambria-Blair- Including the cities of Johnstown and Altoona 1230 PM EST Mon Feb 11 2019 ...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 PM EST TUESDAY... * WHAT...Heavy mixed precipitation. Additional snow accumulations of 3 to 5 inches and ice accumulations of up to one half of an inch are expected. * WHERE...Cambria and Blair Counties. * WHEN...Until 4 PM EST Tuesday. Snow will mix with sleet and freezing rain later today and become all freezing rain this evening and tonight. The temperatures will warm slightly Tuesday to change the precipitation to plain rain during the mid afternoon. Yea it looks pretty ugly around these parts. I think the best chance for the 0.5" ice is going to be on the ridge tops, especially the Allegheny front ridgeline that borders Cambria/Blair and Somerset/Bedford. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
irvingtwosmokes Posted February 11, 2019 Share Posted February 11, 2019 Just now, MAG5035 said: Yea it looks pretty ugly around these parts. I think the best chance for the 0.5" ice is going to be on the ridge tops, especially the Allegheny front ridgeline that borders Cambria/Blair and Somerset/Bedford. I'll bet Peggy Westover curve will be entertaining. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted February 11, 2019 Author Share Posted February 11, 2019 Snow has started back up, finally. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ruin Posted February 11, 2019 Share Posted February 11, 2019 41 minutes ago, CarlislePaWx said: The totals in the current forecast do not include what fell last night into this morning. Their current snowfall projection maps indicate a start time of this afternoon. Also, it is very likely that LSV is into the change / mixed precip before or by 12Z Tuesay (7:00AM). So you are basically looking at the next 12 to 14 hours for accumulating snowfall to reach projected amounts. Sun needs to set and rates need to pick up to drop temp below 32. I'm currently sitting at 32.9 and have been above freezing for the past 5 hours. Peaked at 33.7 before dropping back down. My 1.8" of snow from overnight has melted to less than 1/2 remaining. still find it odd that the nam gives me so little when the nws upped the totals for me to 3-6 more likely higher then the lower amounts. vs just 2 days ago where this was said to be mostly rain but all the mets on tuesday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm Posted February 11, 2019 Share Posted February 11, 2019 CC showing mix/sleet line extending into PA northwest of Hagerstown.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CarlislePaWx Posted February 11, 2019 Share Posted February 11, 2019 2 minutes ago, Superstorm said: CC showing mix/sleet line extending into PA northwest of Hagerstown. . I predict that that line will be squashed southward below the M/D line once the heavier rates arrive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
2001kx Posted February 11, 2019 Share Posted February 11, 2019 Raining (drizzle) here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pawatch Posted February 11, 2019 Share Posted February 11, 2019 I guess I was expecting more of a line (snow/mix) than a circle on that map I posted. Just seemed weird....Good Luck to everyone!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kerplunk Posted February 11, 2019 Share Posted February 11, 2019 Snizzle just started here - 31.5º Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CarlislePaWx Posted February 11, 2019 Share Posted February 11, 2019 Temp finally back down to 32.0. My board has a whopping dusting on it. Sidewalks and roads just wet. Right now I have a steady but pretty light snow falling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ruin Posted February 11, 2019 Share Posted February 11, 2019 hmm radar expands then goes dry in my area for the last 4 hours. looks like this storm will be late getting started in my area. I should say phase 2 is late getting started. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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