canderson Posted February 9, 2019 Share Posted February 9, 2019 4 minutes ago, Atomixwx said: What the ****? Yeaaaaaa someone had a Friday night adventure it sounds like. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted February 9, 2019 Share Posted February 9, 2019 35 minutes ago, bubbler86 said: After falling for the TT failure at the start of winter I have found Pivotal Weather's maps to be more realistic but yea if someone shows a map for all snow until a certain point it includes all snow not just the storm du jour. Outside snow maps I think TT is much more user friendly and easier to see on mobile devices. TT's are more fun to post though as evidenced by the Wed rain event where FV3 showed 4-6" in eastern PA :-). Here is an example from the just completed 12Z NAM which shows most of the LSV staying near freezing at the surface for the whole event but the column above does not. First map is Pivotal's snow map which shows little to no snow south of the Mason Dixon and maybe a 1-4" type snow forthe LSV. Second map is TT which shows area wide (including much of MD) 3-6" snows...same data, different algorithms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pawatch Posted February 9, 2019 Share Posted February 9, 2019 Nam showing a lot of freezing precipitation. This doesn't really show sleet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Porsche Posted February 9, 2019 Share Posted February 9, 2019 Update from Eric Horst Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted February 9, 2019 Share Posted February 9, 2019 The models at 12z have a pretty good consensus for our early week snow. The UKMET continues to insist on this bringing larger snow totals. The rest of the 12z guidance seems to be in the same 4 to 8 inch snow range For CTP. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted February 9, 2019 Share Posted February 9, 2019 The 18z NAM trended colder as well from the last couple of runs for All of CTP. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cashtown_Coop Posted February 9, 2019 Share Posted February 9, 2019 @Blizzard of 93 thanks for the updates Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted February 9, 2019 Share Posted February 9, 2019 7 minutes ago, Cashtown_Coop said: @Blizzard of 93 thanks for the updates Thanks! I’m getting more excited for this storm with each run of the models. The short range Meso models should begin to take the lead. I think we have a chance to do well with snow & ice with this event. I’m also fired up for the longer range. The EPS & GEFS have really been upping the ante the last few runs as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CarlislePaWx Posted February 9, 2019 Share Posted February 9, 2019 11 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said: The 18z NAM trended colder as well from the last couple of runs for All of CTP. Yeah, thanks to both you and bubbler for your updates and interpretations. Very much appreciated!!! Based on Horst I would say that for me I'll be seeing a fair amount of freezing rain on Tuesday. Perfect CAD trap for me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted February 9, 2019 Share Posted February 9, 2019 22 minutes ago, CarlislePaWx said: Yeah, thanks to both you and bubbler for your updates and interpretations. Very much appreciated!!! Based on Horst I would say that for me I'll be seeing a fair amount of freezing rain on Tuesday. Perfect CAD trap for me. Thanks. I think those of us back towards the I-81 corridor will have at least a few inches of snow, then a long round of sleet & freezing rain on Tuesday. Hopefully the ice will preserve our snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
2001kx Posted February 9, 2019 Share Posted February 9, 2019 25 minutes ago, CarlislePaWx said: Yeah, thanks to both you and bubbler for your updates and interpretations. Very much appreciated!!! Based on Horst I would say that for me I'll be seeing a fair amount of freezing rain on Tuesday. Perfect CAD trap for me. +1 Thanks for keeping the thread rolling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted February 9, 2019 Author Share Posted February 9, 2019 Few comments on the overall pattern before we get too close to our upcoming weather issues on tap. My concern going forward in the next couple weeks is the major -PNA (western US trough) that has established itself. We have a really nice -EPO ridge in the Pac established as well but it seems that the alignment wants to dump the core of the anomalous low heights and the primary trough into the western US. With the major -EPO ridge shooting up into AK, that keeps us from torching via a Pacific flow... so overall temps look to be seasonable to maybe slightly below. On the other side there's no good -NAO or downstream ridging to help buckle heights on our side of the country. That leaves us vulnerable to cutters from a storm track standpoint, which has become a theme this winter. Lack of -NAO has been a theme too although thats been for more like the last 5+ years. That could possibly change via the East Pac ridge into AK shifting east towards the west coast in time or with establishment of + heights downstream in the NAO realm. I would imagine MJO activity is driving the Pac pattern alignment, we've been mired in the P6-7 border region with the index making a backtrack towards 6 the last several days. It is forecast to get towards 8 but this backtrack has been pushing that prospect back in time. I think we will see the 8-1-2-3 run we're looking for from that teleconnection. But we might not get there till late in the month. We'll be vulnerable to cutting storms in the meantime. That's the most negative i've ever seen this site have the PNA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted February 9, 2019 Share Posted February 9, 2019 Hopefully the final week of February torches the west and allows for cold in the east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CarlislePaWx Posted February 9, 2019 Share Posted February 9, 2019 41 minutes ago, 2001kx said: +1 Thanks for keeping the thread rolling. You're welcome. I could make a lot more comments but like many others here I think if the weather isn't giving us at least hope for something to track in the short to med range it's easy to just say nothing. Here's something I think many of us would agree with. For me, posts are like a drug fix. I'm always anticipating that the next time I sit down at my computer I will bring up the forum page (which is in a tab that's always opened...lol) and check for new messages. When it says there are new posts there's that brief rush of excitement and anticipation over what the content will be. The results can further induce the high, or can bring you down really quick. If a really long time has gone without any posts, like say 12 hours, that can induce depression. So, with that theme in mind, I can easily say that Blizz, bubbler, and Mag are the primary "dealers" around here with nut not far behind. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CarlislePaWx Posted February 9, 2019 Share Posted February 9, 2019 Here's something else I wanted to mention. The barometric pressure over us today reached 30.71" or 1040mb. You can consider this anecdotal coming from me, or not, but I have observed numerous occasions over the years when a significant CAD event / ice storm has occurred within 48-72 hours of the unusually high pressure. Something to consider as we look at Tuesday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted February 9, 2019 Share Posted February 9, 2019 2 hours ago, Blizzard of 93 said: The 18z NAM trended colder as well from the last couple of runs for All of CTP. Fv3 is looking a bit better as well. Southern line of appreciable frozen is rather consistant through most models. Still enough time for this go go even colder and more frozen before we flip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daxx Posted February 9, 2019 Share Posted February 9, 2019 30 minutes ago, Voyager said: Hopefully the final week of February torches the west and allows for cold in the east. Haha...I had to do a double take at this! You must be headed west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted February 9, 2019 Share Posted February 9, 2019 1 hour ago, CarlislePaWx said: Yeah, thanks to both you and bubbler for your updates and interpretations. Very much appreciated!!! Based on Horst I would say that for me I'll be seeing a fair amount of freezing rain on Tuesday. Perfect CAD trap for me. My posts are going to be a bit far and between the next few days as I will be in Florida...so no Mason-Dixon line observations from me. I think that after several days of this threat being less and less ominous (and that FV3 plot showing 2 feet of a snow a few days ago did not help ala expectations too high) we really are settling in on a nice frozen event for all of PA. I think it would be hard to hope for it to stay snow at this point as almost every model is showing the main SLP being in the upper mid west in 48 hours so short of a miracle coast transfer the SSW winds are coming...if only it were colder like I said a few days ago. If it were 15 in Sayre PA and 20 in Harrisburg PA as the slug approached I think this would be an 8-12" event but instead it will be 25-30 in Sayre and 30-35 in Harrisburg so there is not much breathing room. In fact without wet bulbs drops this would be an all rain event I think. CAD is probably going to win at surface for most of the storm but even the most "caddy" (Cad fight!!) of the models is pushing 850's up to the NY border. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WmsptWx Posted February 9, 2019 Share Posted February 9, 2019 33 minutes ago, CarlislePaWx said: Here's something else I wanted to mention. The barometric pressure over us today reached 30.71" or 1040mb. You can consider this anecdotal coming from me, or not, but I have observed numerous occasions over the years when a significant CAD event / ice storm has occurred within 48-72 hours of the unusually high pressure. Something to consider as we look at Tuesday. Do we have any statistics of this or record of a correlation between unusually high pressure readings and ice storms within that time frame? A good place to look for this kind of scenario would be Montreal. I don't know if there's a place more prone to ice storms than Montreal. Ridge and Valley sections of the mid-Atlantice being a distant second. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted February 9, 2019 Share Posted February 9, 2019 1 hour ago, MAG5035 said: Few comments on the overall pattern before we get too close to our upcoming weather issues on tap. My concern going forward in the next couple weeks is the major -PNA (western US trough) that has established itself. We have a really nice -EPO ridge in the Pac established as well but it seems that the alignment wants to dump the core of the anomalous low heights and the primary trough into the western US. With the major -EPO ridge shooting up into AK, that keeps us from torching via a Pacific flow... so overall temps look to be seasonable to maybe slightly below. On the other side there's no good -NAO or downstream ridging to help buckle heights on our side of the country. That leaves us vulnerable to cutters from a storm track standpoint, which has become a theme this winter. Lack of -NAO has been a theme too although thats been for more like the last 5+ years. That could possibly change via the East Pac ridge into AK shifting east towards the west coast in time or with establishment of + heights downstream in the NAO realm. I would imagine MJO activity is driving the Pac pattern alignment, we've been mired in the P6-7 border region with the index making a backtrack towards 6 the last several days. It is forecast to get towards 8 but this backtrack has been pushing that prospect back in time. I think we will see the 8-1-2-3 run we're looking for from that teleconnection. But we might not get there till late in the month. We'll be vulnerable to cutting storms in the meantime. That's the most negative i've ever seen this site have the PNA. Thanks for all the details. It is not great news but late February is better than nothing. It is all we have right now I guess. At least these cutter storms have given us something to track for front end stuff vs. it simply being too warm to snow at all times....but we really need a nice clear one foot or more all snow event to make this winter decent. The MJO reversing course is a very worrying sign. We continue to have little or no activity in the gulf which means we have to fight for everything here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted February 9, 2019 Share Posted February 9, 2019 48 minutes ago, Voyager said: Hopefully the final week of February torches the west and allows for cold in the east. Between this comment and our Turnpike-living friend discussing his Friday “Fear and Loathing In Central PA” activities I’m officially confused. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted February 9, 2019 Share Posted February 9, 2019 18 minutes ago, daxx said: Haha...I had to do a double take at this! You must be headed west. Yessir. Going out to Phoenix for a visit with my mom from the 23rd to the 2nd... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted February 9, 2019 Share Posted February 9, 2019 2 minutes ago, canderson said: Between this comment and our Turnpike-living friend discussing his Friday “Fear and Loathing In Central PA” activities I’m officially confused. Haha...I knew I'd get you guys wondering. I was waiting for someone to ask "who posted this and what did you do to Voyager?" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WmsptWx Posted February 9, 2019 Share Posted February 9, 2019 Speaking of Hunter S. Flathead, isn't it time for his 7pm bump of coke? Did he died? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daxx Posted February 10, 2019 Share Posted February 10, 2019 18z Euro definitely looking good for at advisory type snow to ice. We go to rain as well Tuesday into Wednesday morning with temps reaching mid to upper 30s. Staying near freezing up by state college. Not a bad run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm Posted February 10, 2019 Share Posted February 10, 2019 18z Euro definitely looking good for at advisory type snow to ice. We go to rain as well Tuesday into Wednesday morning with temps reaching mid to upper 30s. Staying near freezing up by state college. Not a bad run.Good run. Would like to see the 0z respond well.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted February 10, 2019 Share Posted February 10, 2019 41 minutes ago, daxx said: 18z Euro definitely looking good for at advisory type snow to ice. We go to rain as well Tuesday into Wednesday morning with temps reaching mid to upper 30s. Staying near freezing up by state college. Not a bad run. Please tell us more... I don’t have access to the 18z or 6z Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Flatheadsickness Posted February 10, 2019 Share Posted February 10, 2019 2 hours ago, Atomixwx said: Speaking of Hunter S. Flathead, isn't it time for his 7pm bump of coke? Did he died? lol I don't do anything that can kill me unless my dentist gives me permission. I get high and fat on mother natures plants nature and weather. Hunter S. is @ucking devil worshiping hippy that should have been castrated gutted and hung along with his friend Johnny. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted February 10, 2019 Share Posted February 10, 2019 Oz NAM was a nice hit for most this subforum. HBG 4”-5” and a bit more to the West. Nearly all 2”+. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lte5000 Posted February 10, 2019 Share Posted February 10, 2019 1 minute ago, canderson said: Oz NAM was a nice hit for most this subforum. HBG 4”-5” and a bit more to the West. Nearly all 2”+. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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