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Central PA - Jan/Feb 2019 Obs and Discussion


MAG5035

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1 minute ago, canderson said:

GFS and then HRRR ftw. 

BUT!!! This means anyone who posts ICON maps should get permabanned! 

So really it’s a win.

When I saw the HRRR taking plain rain all the way up to Binghamton, I just kind of knew we were pretty much done, and the big numbers thrown around weren't going to happen.

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Not over yet guys. Yet to see a flake but on our doorstep here in Palmyra. I am remaining hope for a couple of inches if not more. Any storm coming this far west without a transfer earlier is a problem. But it caused major Mets to keep guessing themselves. And as much as I like Horst why do you go on twitter and promote your forecast and that NWS finally catered to mine. I don’t like that at all. But anyways, it still fun anticipation of it, and it is only mid-January. 

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35 minutes ago, canderson said:

GFS and then HRRR ftw. 

BUT!!! This means anyone who posts ICON maps should get permabanned! 

So really it’s a win.

The ICON is actually a decent model.  It ended up being too cold in runs early this week but it was one of first to signal at least part of this day would be snowy when most other LR guidance was rain.  

 

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Yea, the main stuff is just arriving into the LSV. Might want to let to snow arrive and the changeover to happen before claiming this or that on this storm. The storm came NW, and is being observed as being NW. Sliding the low under PA is one thing but you can't run a 992 low into SW PA and then through PA without more significant p-type issues. In the meantime, it's going to snow most everywhere in the LSV for a few to several hours this evening before changing over S to N. A look at LWX radar indicates that mixing line looks to be still down near the I-70 corridor in MD. 

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18 minutes ago, bubbler86 said:

The ICON is actually a decent model.  It was ended up being too cold in runs early this week but it was one of first to signal at least part of this day would be snowy when most other LR guidance was rain.  

 

Yeah I'm not sure why were diggin on it.  It was the first to pick up on this.  Gotta say that the GFS seemed to sniff out the track best though (even though I liked its evolution the least).  Hey, we learn.

 

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2 minutes ago, pasnownut said:

Yeah I'm not sure why were diggin on it.  It was the first to pick up on this.  Gotta say that the GFS seemed to sniff out the track best though (even though I liked its evolution the least).  Hey, we learn.

 

Yea, its forecast of pushing the low into Erie is going to be more right than wrong if the low does indeed cut through Central PA and over Scranton. 

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2 minutes ago, bubbler86 said:

Yea, its forecast of pushing the low into Erie is going to be more right than wrong if the low does indeed cut through Central PA and over Scranton. 

I guess i should have clarified by stating it was the farthest NW w/ LP.  

 

at least when it shows us a MECS in the next few days, we might really be able to get excited.  Still think once we get through this week and get midweek deal outta the way, we should be headed to a more stable and slightly more predictable pattern for our area.  

in the meantime, good luck N and NE crew.  Send pics.

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Just now, pasnownut said:

I guess i should have clarified by stating it was the farthest NW w/ LP.  

 

at least when it shows us a MECS in the next few days, we might really be able to get excited.  Still think once we get through this week and get midweek deal outta the way, we should be headed to a more stable and slightly more predictable pattern for our area.  

in the meantime, good luck N and NE crew.  Send pics.

Just let it play out and yes good luck to the north. We have at least another 2-3 hours of snow or more. Love this forum. But many just give up before it ends. :) 

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5 minutes ago, paweather said:

Just let it play out and yes good luck to the north. We have at least another 2-3 hours of snow or more. Love this forum. But many just give up before it ends. :) 

We just started snowing pixie dust here.  All good bud.  You know I'm down w/ every flake i can get, but track now into Pa says were cooked.  When it was under us, I was all in.  

No biggie.  I'm really excited for what we have coming up w/ LR guidance, and think that we can/will score.  Like I just said in the MA forum, I'll clip my way to climo and be just fine w/ it.

Now lets watch it snow.  I gotta go crack another Cold Snap.  Damn thats good beer.

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Just now, bubbler86 said:

Have about a 75% Snow/25% sleet mix here  Coming down very hard.  These change over lines really dump snow and it adds up fast.  About 2" here now. 

Didn't MAG just say it looked like the change line was down in MD along I-70?  I'd think it would be too soon for you to see any mix yet.  (Glad you've reach 2", though).

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2 minutes ago, CarlislePaWx said:

Didn't MAG just say it looked like the change line was down in MD along I-70?  I'd think it would be too soon for you to see any mix yet.  (Glad you've reach 2", though).

Changeover should be starting just north of Mason-Dixon and east of I-81

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Just now, CarlislePaWx said:

Didn't MAG just say it looked like the change line was down in MD along I-70?  I'd think it would be too soon for you to see any mix yet.  (Glad you've reach 2", though).

I think that was about an hour or so ago.  I am only 1/2 mile from the MD line and only about 15-20 miles north of 70 so it was close to me back then.  You have the better spot for this one.   Radar makes it appear the sleet line is indeed just to my south. 

 

 

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