sauss06 Posted February 5, 2019 Share Posted February 5, 2019 6 minutes ago, pasnownut said: looking at ens guidance overnight, it looks like there is not much consensus beyond 5-7 days. Hug the EPS as it is close to something good. GEFS gets there way out, but its way out, so normal caveats apply. GEPS....meh. A few weeks ago I told myself to no longer get lost in model watching for any epic patterns that never seem to materialize this year. I'm now on the bootleggin train for the rest of this season, and will hopefully scratch and scrape my way into winter fun. Stable patterns are great, but obviously a rartity around here, so i guess it is what it is. I'm seeing snow every week, and while I just wish we could keep it, I'm not complaining. i'l take whatever snow i can get, but being honest, yesterday was awesome. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted February 5, 2019 Share Posted February 5, 2019 12 minutes ago, pasnownut said: looking at ens guidance overnight, it looks like there is not much consensus beyond 5-7 days. Hug the EPS as it is close to something good. GEFS gets there way out, but its way out, so normal caveats apply. GEPS....meh. A few weeks ago I told myself to no longer get lost in model watching for any epic patterns that never seem to materialize this year. I'm now on the bootleggin train for the rest of this season, and will hopefully scratch and scrape my way into winter fun. Stable patterns are great, but obviously a rartity around here, so i guess it is what it is. I'm seeing snow every week, and while I just wish we could keep it, I'm not complaining. This last few days of LR watching has been interesting in that our area could really score with a train of moderate SLP's with a quasi-stationary front that generally drifts back south of us after the passing of each shortwave. Front end thumps that can stick around despite possible above freezing temps immediately after the storm. Not a pattern for a 2-3 foot monsters but could see several 4-12" type variety storms. Some people actually treasure the remembrance of a month as much as the actual snow fall and I personally would remember February better if we had 4 moderate snow falls vs. 1 big one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted February 5, 2019 Share Posted February 5, 2019 10 minutes ago, sauss06 said: i'l take whatever snow i can get, but being honest, yesterday was awesome. dont be honest then. Lie to me and tell me you hated it. Im old enough to appreciate a warmup, Normal winter ebbs and flows around here, so not unexpected at all. Just had a fantastic 3 day weekend at the cabin and conditions WERE fantastic. Now...shot to hell, but hope they can rebuild after this weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anotherman Posted February 5, 2019 Share Posted February 5, 2019 3 minutes ago, pasnownut said: dont be honest then. Lie to me and tell me you hated it. Im old enough to appreciate a warmup, Normal winter ebbs and flows around here, so not unexpected at all. Just had a fantastic 3 day weekend at the cabin and conditions WERE fantastic. Now...shot to hell, but hope they can rebuild after this weekend. I hated it. It makes me furious. High 40s or low 50s are one thing, but 60+ is ridiculous. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted February 5, 2019 Share Posted February 5, 2019 11 minutes ago, bubbler86 said: This last few days of LR watching has been interesting in that our area could really score with a train of moderate SLP's with a quasi-stationary front that generally drifts back south of us after the passing of each shortwave. Front end thumps that can stick around despite possible above freezing temps immediately after the storm. Not a pattern for a 2-3 foot monsters but could see several 4-12" type variety storms. Some people actually treasure the remembrance of a month as much as the actual snow fall and I personally would remember February better if we had 4 moderate snow falls vs. 1 big one. agree 1000% yet some will take 1 doozy and call it winter. its interesting how perceptions of what the definition of a good winter is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anotherman Posted February 5, 2019 Share Posted February 5, 2019 6 minutes ago, pasnownut said: agree 1000% yet some will take 1 doozy and call it winter. its interesting how perceptions of what the definition of a good winter is. Agree as well. What I love about winter the most is the winter landscape, not a one and done storm where the rest of the winter is mild. Consistency is always what I hope for. 2013-14 was awesome for that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted February 5, 2019 Share Posted February 5, 2019 Just now, anotherman said: I hated it. It makes me furious. High 40s or low 50s are one thing, but 60+ is ridiculous. agreed. We've all seen how given the right conditions (antecedent cold), you can still hold snowpack at 40+ as the days arent yet long and nights still get good radiational cooling. No problem w/ that at all. 60's tears the ass outta anything winter, unless you live in the Rockies/Cali or Whistler. We cant afford that kinda heat round these parts. My wood stash is enjoying these warmish days though #woodpileretention hehe Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted February 5, 2019 Share Posted February 5, 2019 2 minutes ago, pasnownut said: agreed. We've all seen how given the right conditions (antecedent cold), you can still hold snowpack at 40+ as the days arent yet long and nights still get good radiational cooling. No problem w/ that at all. 60's tears the ass outta anything winter, unless you live in the Rockies/Cali or Whistler. We cant afford that kinda heat round these parts. My wood stash is enjoying these warmish days though #woodpileretention hehe Would not be a total stunner to see someone hit 70 today. Feel likes a May morning right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sauss06 Posted February 5, 2019 Share Posted February 5, 2019 1 hour ago, pasnownut said: dont be honest then. Lie to me and tell me you hated it. Im old enough to appreciate a warmup, Normal winter ebbs and flows around here, so not unexpected at all. Just had a fantastic 3 day weekend at the cabin and conditions WERE fantastic. Now...shot to hell, but hope they can rebuild after this weekend. oh, don't get me wrong, i don't want it to last. I just needed yesterday and today to finish a project in my shop. When its only high in the teens my shop is useless. so keep piling up the snow my brotha Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted February 5, 2019 Share Posted February 5, 2019 18 minutes ago, sauss06 said: oh, don't get me wrong, i don't want it to last. I just needed yesterday and today to finish a project in my shop. When its only high in the teens my shop is useless. so keep piling up the snow my brotha oh i get ya. I plan to get my garage cleaned out and sleds looked over from the weekend, cause i think i may be able to do some more snowmobiling in the coming weeks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted February 5, 2019 Share Posted February 5, 2019 as I suspected, 12k NAM at 12z lost much of the LSV in the Hump day surprise it was showing. I punted this week a week ago, so it is what it is. My goal is to make it to Friday and once there, I think we settle back into a more wintery regime and talk of snow and chanced thereof will be back on the table. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted February 5, 2019 Share Posted February 5, 2019 1 minute ago, pasnownut said: as I suspected, 12k at 12z lost much of the LSV in the Hump day surprise it was showing. I punted this week a week ago, so it is what it is. My goal is to make it to Friday and once there, I think we settle back into a more wintery regime and talk of snow and chanced thereof will be back on the table. Yea, Nam had dropped the LSV a few runs ago but continued for the USV and North East PA. The Fv3 is your daddy right now. I do not foster much hope of accumulating snow anywhere south of I80 but we saw so much punting from the Rams I thought it pertinent to point out that there was a slight chance of wintery weather in between our 60-70 torch today and then again Friday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted February 5, 2019 Share Posted February 5, 2019 21 minutes ago, bubbler86 said: Yea, Nam had dropped the LSV a few runs ago but continued for the USV and North East PA. The Fv3 is your daddy right now. I do not foster much hope of accumulating snow anywhere south of I80 but we saw so much punting from the Rams I thought it pertinent to point out that there was a slight chance of wintery weather in between our 60-70 torch today and then again Friday. I get ya. Definitely something for NE crew to watch, but its a small window amidst a several day bad stretch, so if you see snow, take pics cause it wont last long. A week from now.....one can see that better times may be a comin Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CarlislePaWx Posted February 5, 2019 Share Posted February 5, 2019 I am exactly 10 degrees warmer right now (54.3) than I was precisely at this time yesterday morning. My high yesterday ended up at 58. If we keep the sunshine all day long I wonder if upper sixties is possible? Remember last February? We had that mini 2-day heat wave (record breaking at MDT) with temps in the upper 70's? Not sure of the dates but it occurred in the first half of the month I'm pretty sure. Will have to go check. Glad to see we have early next week to start focusing on. Until then enjoy this beautiful spring-like warmth. I'm airing out my house by opening some windows for a while...haha. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted February 5, 2019 Share Posted February 5, 2019 3 minutes ago, CarlislePaWx said: Remember last February? We had that mini 2-day heat wave (record breaking at MDT) with temps in the upper 70's? That heat wave last year was something...glad I missed it. Here is MDT. Crazy thing is that the 77 on 2/20 was not even a record high. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CarlislePaWx Posted February 5, 2019 Share Posted February 5, 2019 Ok I checked and it was February 20 and 21st, so the second half of the month. My station recorded a high of 81.5 degrees on the 21st! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CarlislePaWx Posted February 5, 2019 Share Posted February 5, 2019 1 minute ago, bubbler86 said: That heat wave last year was something...glad I missed it. Here is MDT. Crazy thing is that the 77 on 2/21 was not even a record high. You meant 77 on the 20th. Pretty sure the 79 on the 21st was a record. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anotherman Posted February 5, 2019 Share Posted February 5, 2019 1 minute ago, CarlislePaWx said: Ok I checked and it was February 20 and 21st, so the second half of the month. My station recorded a high of 81.5 degrees on the 21st! That really sucked. I do maple sugaring at my school and every single house fly in PA descended on our maple trees that day. DISGUSTING. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted February 5, 2019 Share Posted February 5, 2019 5 minutes ago, CarlislePaWx said: You meant 77 on the 20th. Pretty sure the 79 on the 21st was a record. Yea, I had corrected but you beat me to it with your quote :-). Another amazing thing about last years torch is the almost 40 degree temp swings each day. In compare it may be in the 60's over night this coming Thursday into Friday. One thing that has become apparent is the models under estimated this weeks torch a bit. I did not see anything suggesting 3 days in the 60's like we may end up with. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted February 5, 2019 Share Posted February 5, 2019 Probably will need some FFW headlines for Thursday. A good chunk of this forum will see 1"+ rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anotherman Posted February 5, 2019 Share Posted February 5, 2019 2 hours ago, bubbler86 said: Would not be a total stunner to see someone hit 70 today. Feel likes a May morning right now. I think you may be right. My God. I think it will be the third February in a row with at least one day in the 70s if that happens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted February 5, 2019 Share Posted February 5, 2019 17 minutes ago, anotherman said: I think you may be right. My God. I think this will be the third February in a row with at least one day in the 70s if that happens. You are right. Feb 2017 featured a major torch about the same time as 2018...and 2016 also saw several days in the 50's and 60's. I think January thaw has turned in February thaw. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted February 5, 2019 Share Posted February 5, 2019 To say today's GFS is a major disappointment would be an understatement. Not just for next Tuesday, which is just a likely to be a flooding rain as it is snow, but the whole long range. Hopefully the EURO suggests we can throw it. Edit-The rumors of storms are still something we can look forward to but I would like to see a consistent run of the boundary staying to our south and the GFS keeps up with cutter town and rain followed by cold. The 12Z Euro came in with a nice save for Tuesday and a 4-8" event with some mix at the end. Stays below freezing the whole event with a strong CAD signature at 850. 7 days out though so not worth much else than mentioning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted February 5, 2019 Share Posted February 5, 2019 1 hour ago, pasnownut said: as I suspected, 12k NAM at 12z lost much of the LSV in the Hump day surprise it was showing. I punted this week a week ago, so it is what it is. My goal is to make it to Friday and once there, I think we settle back into a more wintery regime and talk of snow and chanced thereof will be back on the table. Well it is not at all supported but the Fv3 still insists you are getting a couple inches of snow or sleet tomorrow. LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted February 5, 2019 Share Posted February 5, 2019 Went for a 3 mile walk at lunch. When I got back to the office I was pouring sweat. Currently 65. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sauss06 Posted February 5, 2019 Share Posted February 5, 2019 36 minutes ago, canderson said: Went for a 3 mile walk at lunch. When I got back to the office I was pouring sweat. Currently 65. days like this, management should grant 2 hour early leaves Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pawatch Posted February 5, 2019 Share Posted February 5, 2019 @NWSStateCollege 25m Warning verified and record shattered! It is currently 60°F at Williamsport-Lycoming County Airport (@flyIPT). It is the warmest February 5th on record (since 1896). Hope you can get out and enjoy it! #PAwx #ExcessivelyGorgeousWeather pic.twitter.com/zZJ2UOoCHQ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CarlislePaWx Posted February 5, 2019 Share Posted February 5, 2019 Made it 65.5 as of 3:25pm. That's looking like the will be the high for the day as it's back down to 64.6. Great day to air out the house, though. Fresh air outside smells great. Just think, tomorrow at this time it will be about 25 degrees colder with rain. Isn't that a pleasant thought?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted February 5, 2019 Share Posted February 5, 2019 Made it to 64 here. Mid level cloud cover has moved in so we are probably topped out. Nice afternoon for a walk! Weather Underground has a few 68's but MDT will not make it to 70 so @anotherman the string of Feb's over 70 stays at two for now. Doubt MDT has a shot at 70 on Friday since the warmest surface temps appear to happen overnight and the first part of the day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted February 5, 2019 Author Share Posted February 5, 2019 I'm glad I was able to get away and stay up at Blue Knob a couple days over the weekend while it was still deep winter and get some good snowboarding in. Snowpack is in full meltdown today with temps around the 60 degree mark. With regards to this week and beyond, I've basically been reserved to this week being that one week where winter is just about completely routed from our area. These things happen, especially when you have a massively negative PNA vs a neutral NAO and an MJO working near the phase 6 realm. Even though we've cracked into 7 the last few days, tropical forcing effects have some lag on the mid-latitudes. And JFM phase 7 is still a warm phase in the east but just not having as strong of a correlation. JFM Phase 6 has the highest correlation to eastern warmth. Precip departures are a lot harder to find strong correlation related to the MJO but JFM Phase 6 signals a wet Ohio Valley pretty decently. And well, that's where gonna be at the latter half of this week with likely some flooding issues in the Ohio River and associated tributaries. MJO forecasts are currently indicating, for the most part, an attempted loop back into 6 a bit before going through 7 into 8. A couple are forecasting very high amplitude into 8. If we eventually make an 8-1-2-3 type loop with the MJO in the next 30-45 days, we could set up a potential strong back end of winter in terms of more favorable support from that teleconnection. And the MJO has been active this winter and has shown signs it has had influence on our patterns. Sidenote to these maps, the significance percentage map on the right works oppositely to what one might think, as the lower % number correlates to the higher correlation. As taken from the MJO site: Quote Right 8 panels: Displayed as in the left panel except showing the level of statistical significance. Purple/blue shaded areas (lower percentages) represent regions that have higher levels of statistical significance according to a Monte Carlo test (see details in methodology). In these plots, a significance level of 5% means that there is a 5% chance that the anomalies arise from random chance (also known as the 95% confidence level). So with that in mind, notice how strongly the 4-5-6 phases correlate to eastern warmth (esp phase 6). You don't necessarily see such a strong connection on the colder phases. It kind of makes it impressive how cold we were while we were coming through those phases. But it also can be a factor in how rapidly our ferocious arctic shot left. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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