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Central PA - Jan/Feb 2019 Obs and Discussion


MAG5035

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Haha.  My phone just went off again with the snow squall warning.  On radar what's left of it is over me right now and all I have are a few flurries!  Looks like Voyager might be the only one who ends up with something.  South of there it's completely falling apart / drying up.  Oh well, another disappointment.  Maybe 2" for Friday?

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1 minute ago, CarlislePaWx said:

Haha.  My phone just went off again with the snow squall warning.  On radar what's left of it is over me right now and all I have are a few flurries!  Looks like Voyager might be the only one who ends up with something.  South of there it's completely falling apart / drying up.  Oh well, another disappointment.  Maybe 2" for Friday?

my daughter sent me a picture from Shipp and it just looked like flurries

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10 minutes ago, CarlislePaWx said:

Haha.  My phone just went off again with the snow squall warning.  On radar what's left of it is over me right now and all I have are a few flurries!  Looks like Voyager might be the only one who ends up with something.  South of there it's completely falling apart / drying up.  Oh well, another disappointment.  Maybe 2" for Friday?

That line does look a bit ragged right now. Might it do the infamous "summertime" Tamaqua Split?

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Ok, spoke a little too soon.  Flurries increased to wind-blown light to moderate snow with a solid dusting now and fairly reduced visibilities (half mile?).  Radar faking me out.  Temp starting to drop, down to 21.2 and pressure rising rapidly along with winds shifting to NW.  I'd say the arctic front has passed me.

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7 minutes ago, CarlislePaWx said:

Ok, spoke a little too soon.  Flurries increased to wind-blown light to moderate snow with a solid dusting now and fairly reduced visibilities (half mile?).  Radar faking me out.  Temp starting to drop, down to 21.2 and pressure rising rapidly along with winds shifting to NW.  I'd say the arctic front has passed me.

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#Snowsquall appears to be weakening - but that is largely due to distance (farther away) from radar. IR satellite data confirms squall has maintained intensity. Expect brief burst of heavy snow & strong wind gusts shifting east of US-15 through 12PM. #pawx

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2 minutes ago, bubbler86 said:

Tapering off here.  Impossible to measure especially with blowing snow but roofs are covered again so somewhere between 1/4 and 1/2" in a matter of 15 min.  Most impressive thing was the temp...dropped from 26 to 16 in less than 20 min. 

About the same here.  I went from 23 to 17.   

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Ok, well, my squall ended up depositing 0.2" of new snow, which is 0.2" more than I was expecting.  Would have been nice to have witnessed the whiteouts reported by Cash and bubbler to my south.  It never got heavier here than moderate.  Temp continues to drop, now down to 19.6.  Temps out in western PA are about 10-15 degrees colder at the moment.  Looks like the PIT area is around +5.  That stuff is headed right for us.  My point n click is one degree colder for tonight, now down to -2.  We'll see.  The Friday storm is going to ruin our shot at radiational cooling for lows Friday morning, or we'd all probably reach -5 or lower.  I think we still get opportunities for even lower temps during February after the warm spell ends.

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15 minutes ago, CarlislePaWx said:

Ok, well, my squall ended up depositing 0.2" of new snow, which is 0.2" more than I was expecting.  Would have been nice to have witnessed the whiteouts reported by Cash and bubbler to my south.  It never got heavier here than moderate.  Temp continues to drop, now down to 19.6.  Temps out in western PA are about 10-15 degrees colder at the moment.  Looks like the PIT area is around +5.  That stuff is headed right for us.  My point n click is one degree colder for tonight, now down to -2.  We'll see.  The Friday storm is going to ruin our shot at radiational cooling for lows Friday morning, or we'd all probably reach -5 or lower.  I think we still get opportunities for even lower temps during February after the warm spell ends.

It really seemed to blossom as it came through Central Franklin and Adams county.  The 20 dBz blob has doubled in size as it continued south and I suspect we see some accident reports out of Frederick and they get a full inch out of this. I suspect the higher temps here had a role in it.   Here is Frederick right now.

image.png.134b9ed272959793627baad3f11b4ddb.png

https://chart.maryland.gov/video/video.php?feed=ccffd39d00a000e90056fa36c4235c0a

 

 

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10 minutes ago, canderson said:

Mountains really did a number on it in HBG - it was a nice squall but by no means a white out or anything. I am on Front St and could still see the capitol dome. 

Well, it certainly wasn't awe inspiring here either. I had similar rates and visibility the last two hours of yesterday's storm as I did with the squall. There wasn't even much wind with it until it tapered off.

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1 hour ago, CarlislePaWx said:

Ok, spoke a little too soon.  Flurries increased to wind-blown light to moderate snow with a solid dusting now and fairly reduced visibilities (half mile?).  Radar faking me out.  Temp starting to drop, down to 21.2 and pressure rising rapidly along with winds shifting to NW.  I'd say the arctic front has passed me.

The radar bean was over the snow squall.. the squall was in between radar sites....

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10 minutes ago, bubbler86 said:

FV3 keeps trying to bring back that Feb 7th and 8th storm.  GFS will have none of it with temps in the 50's and 60's.  These totals include this coming Friday. 

 

image.thumb.png.e0e428992c9401f4896690a5f7b24aaa.png

 

FV3 most bullish of NAM/GFS models for Friday with 2-3" in our area.  Other 3 are 1" or less.  Wonder how long it will hold on to this 2/8 storm?  After the Euro comes out maybe someone with access can tell us if that storm is showing up on it?

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I stand corrected. We actually had two squalls. The first one was moderate with fine flakes. It had just about stopped, and then round two came in like a wall of white with much bigger flakes. That one's winding down now, but between the two of them we picked up between a half and one inch.

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Eric Horst went on a little Twitter rant about the Harrisburg-area radar hole today. Here's what he said:

@MUweather
The Harrisburg "radar hole"...it's a real thing, especially with Arctic snow showers. This traffic camera (near zero visibility snow) at Harrisburg and the Radar view below are both from the same time! How can it be snowing so hard, but nothing on radar?

@MUweather
I've been talking about this for years...it's flaw in the placement of the radar sites, in that there's not radar coverage below 10,000' in the Capital city of PA. Imagine that! As a result, we can't see these shallow squalls (which are mostly occurring below the radar beam)....

@MUweather
...and in the warm season we can't see low-level rotation (i.e. tornadoes). It's a huge problem IMO, but it's never been addressed. Perhaps some State politicians can look into a fix? A local radar would improve forecasts and safety of citizens...and more!

 

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9 minutes ago, canderson said:

Eric Horst went on a little Twitter rant about the Harrisburg-area radar hole today. Here's what he said:

@MUweather
The Harrisburg "radar hole"...it's a real thing, especially with Arctic snow showers. This traffic camera (near zero visibility snow) at Harrisburg and the Radar view below are both from the same time! How can it be snowing so hard, but nothing on radar?

@MUweather
I've been talking about this for years...it's flaw in the placement of the radar sites, in that there's not radar coverage below 10,000' in the Capital city of PA. Imagine that! As a result, we can't see these shallow squalls (which are mostly occurring below the radar beam)....

@MUweather
...and in the warm season we can't see low-level rotation (i.e. tornadoes). It's a huge problem IMO, but it's never been addressed. Perhaps some State politicians can look into a fix? A local radar would improve forecasts and safety of citizens...and more!

 

So if one is going to attack Harrisburg from the sky they must stay below 10,000 feet and in they go. 

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1 hour ago, CarlislePaWx said:

FV3 most bullish of NAM/GFS models for Friday with 2-3" in our area.  Other 3 are 1" or less.  Wonder how long it will hold on to this 2/8 storm?  After the Euro comes out maybe someone with access can tell us if that storm is showing up on it?

FV3 has had this storm being more South East twice now. Let's hope it is right otherwise we are in for two weeks of 50's and 60's with rain rotating between slight cool downs. Need something to force those lows south of us. 

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