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Central PA - Jan/Feb 2019 Obs and Discussion

MAG5035

By MAG5035,
in Upstate New York/Pennsylvania

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djr5001

djr5001

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, canderson said:

I'm realllllllly curious if MDT breaks 0 tomorrow night. If winds die off quickly I think they'll have a good chance. 

I honestly think it may depend on how fast the river freezes over.  Not completely frozen based on it being currently a little elevated (~ 10 feet at the Harrisburg gauge and slowly falling) with wind out of west/northwest I bet it gets held up a few degrees above just because of location of equipment.

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Porsche

Porsche

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, pasnownut said:

Good luck bud.  Nice to see you back...i've seen you lurking.  Get in here and muck it up with us.

I've got several clients in NH.  I get there often.  Like your Chinese buffet behind the Insurance place.  Yummy.

Thanks man, I'm actually down at Shady Maple, as I'm sure you know that place :).  I'll try to stop in more often.  Take care.

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canderson

canderson

Posted
Posted
6 minutes ago, sauss06 said:

am i crazy, but it looks like the temperature goes up like 5-8 degrees from now until around 5ish, then steadily starts declining? 

Currently at 31, probably gets to 33-34. Snow will have a hard time sticking on main roads unless we get really good rates I'd guess - the state is closing 3.5 hours early though. 

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pasnownut

pasnownut

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, Wmsptwx said:

Being honest I agree with you, I was mainly going with some schools make delay decisions based on that criteria so in turn impacts the stupids.

I get ya, but you get me as well.  Any School admin should be smart enough to use better judgement and make a reasonable call (wrt the anomalous cold we are going to see) - its really not that tough a decision just based on raw numbers.

Calling school for 31 and snow flurries....well....now that's another story

Oh the liability age we've built is just ruining us. 

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pasnownut

pasnownut

Posted
Posted
47 minutes ago, sauss06 said:

am i crazy, but it looks like the temperature goes up like 5-8 degrees from now until around 5ish, then steadily starts declining? 

dude.....you're crazy

 

:lol:

thats what the HRRR was showing this morning.  35-6 then we drop.  I say we cave with heavy rates incoming....lol

hrrr_T2m_neus_4.png

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Bubbler86

Bubbler86

Posted
Posted

Sn+ here. Would probably have 2" at this point if we were just a few degrees colder.  Grass is almost covered but roads are just wet.  30 degrees.  

 

Edit-This is the first snow, since moving here last summer, that I am seeing the effects and advantage of uplifting being on the side of South Mountain.  15-20 dBz echos become 30 dBz as they cross over.  

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MAG5035

MAG5035

Posted
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Posted
4 hours ago, Wmsptwx said:

What are odds NWS stays literal with chill advisory instead of warning...in this dangerous cold why not just get attention and do two day warning.

The schools in this county usually at least delay with advisory criteria wind chills, which -15ºF is the threshold for. Warning threshold is -25ºF in all the state, which our temps/wind combo probably won't be enough to achieve the warning criteria outside of the north central and Laurel's where winds will be higher and temps lower. Either way, those wind chills are pretty serious business and it's likely most schools/other organizations are taking the major cold snap seriously. Heck Penn State Main Campus of all places cancelled all afternoon classes last Thursday. Why? Simply because it was supposed to get cold after it rained and things might ice back over. 

Speaking of wind chills, imagine if we were still using the old wind chill chart that was used prior to 2001. A -5ºF temp and a 20mph wind would have given you an apparent temp of -46ºF, lol. 

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sauss06

sauss06

Posted
Posted
10 minutes ago, MAG5035 said:

The schools in this county usually at least delay with advisory criteria wind chills, which -15ºF is the threshold for. Warning threshold is -25ºF in all the state, which our temps/wind combo probably won't be enough to achieve the warning criteria outside of the north central and Laurel's where winds will be higher and temps lower. Either way, those wind chills are pretty serious business and it's likely most schools/other organizations are taking the major cold snap seriously. Heck Penn State Main Campus of all places cancelled all afternoon classes last Thursday. Why? Simply because it was supposed to get cold after it rained and things might ice back over. 

Speaking of wind chills, imagine if we were still using the old wind chill chart that was used prior to 2001. A -5ºF temp and a 20mph wind would have given you an apparent temp of -46ºF, lol. 

Schools heating systems struggle to keep up, especially older buildings. back a couple years ago when we had a "polar Vortex", we had a call at one of schools. It was an issue related to the heating system. The head maint. guy told me after temps reach a certain point, it was outrageous how much it cost to heat for one day. I don't remember the $$ number, but it was crazy. as a tax payer i was glad the closed schools for a couple days :lol:  

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MAG5035

MAG5035

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Posted
4 hours ago, canderson said:

I'm realllllllly curious if MDT breaks 0 tomorrow night. If winds die off quickly I think they'll have a good chance. 

If not they have a really good chance at beating the next two days daily record min and probably Thursday's record max min. The crazy part about this cold is that with how significant the cold airmass is.. it's pretty likely that the lakes with only about 30% ice coverage (fairly normal actually this time in Jan) are going to save us to a degree with surface temps (along with the core of the PV lifting somewhat north of here). The stuff west of the lakes in Chicago and that region as a whole is amazing. Like that's legitimate -20 to -30ºF air with the wind blowing and not localized radiational cooling. Not an airmass seen very often that far into the heart of the US. 

Quote 

.CLIMATE...
Bitterly cold temperatures are expected for the second half of
the work-week. Here are some record mini-maxes and record
minimum temperatures for central PA climate sites for Wednesday
(1/30) and Thursday (1/31):

Record minimums on Wednesday, 1/30:
Williamsport: -6F (1948)
Harrisburg: 2F (2014)
Altoona: 2F (2014)
Johnstown: -9F (1963)
Bradford: -14F (1965)

Record mini-maxes on Wednesday, 1/30:
Williamsport: 12F (1934)
Harrisburg: 13F (1934)
Altoona: 11F (1966)
Johnstown: 9F (1934)
Bradford: -1F (1977)

Record minimums on Thursday, 1/31:
Williamsport: -14F (1948)
Harrisburg: 2F (1948)
Altoona: 0F (1977)
Johnstown: -8F (1977)
Bradford: -13F (2010)

Record mini-maxes on Thursday, 1/31:
Williamsport: 15F (1971)
Harrisburg: 20F (1966)
Altoona: 13F (2004)
Johnstown: 12F (1966)
Bradford: 2F (1971)

 

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CarlislePaWx

CarlislePaWx

Posted
Posted

Moderate snow.  Had a period of heavy snow with fat flakes about 30 minutes ago that helped speed up the accumulation.  Just measured 0.9" on the board.  Temp peaked at 30.2 and is back to 30.0.  Looking at radar I have no idea what to expect as to how much longer the good stuff is going to last.  Maybe another 1/2"?  Will be thrilled to reach the 2" mark.

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