Porsche Posted January 28, 2019 Share Posted January 28, 2019 https://twitter.com/MUweather/status/1089950780243824641/photo/1?ref_src=twsrc^tfw|twcamp^embeddedtimeline|twterm^profile%3AMUweather&ref_url=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.atmos.millersville.edu%2F~wic%2FSWD-latest.html Horst just updated. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Festus Posted January 28, 2019 Share Posted January 28, 2019 WWA issued for the Susquehanna Valley. 2 - 4" for Lancaster. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted January 28, 2019 Share Posted January 28, 2019 Looks like NWS going for a 3-6" snowfall for LSV. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted January 28, 2019 Share Posted January 28, 2019 10 minutes ago, paweather said: Looks like NWS going for a 3-6" snowfall for LSV. Its 3-6 for the Northern LSV. 2-4 for the southern half. They have overshot their load two storms in a row now. 3-6" is very high compared to guidance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted January 28, 2019 Share Posted January 28, 2019 8 minutes ago, bubbler86 said: Its 3-6 for the Northern LSV. 2-4 for the southern half. They have overshot their load two storms in a row now. 3-6" is very high compared to guidance. yep thanks for the clarification. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Santa Clause Posted January 28, 2019 Share Posted January 28, 2019 Srefs have been juiced for awhile, so maybe not completely out there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted January 28, 2019 Share Posted January 28, 2019 18z NAM sort of "held serve" but no one is nam'ed. 2-3" across most of the SV North to South, 4-6 for Lehigh Valley. Western half of PA is fairly dry. Roads will just be wet without intensity. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted January 28, 2019 Share Posted January 28, 2019 HRRR mostly agrees with Nam though it is advertising a plowable 4-6" just to the east of Cashtown along the mason dixon as well as in Nut land but again temps are not good so something is not right on that depiction. Mid to upper 30's when the snow is falling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jns2183 Posted January 28, 2019 Share Posted January 28, 2019 3 hours ago, djr5001 said: Ugh can't believe I missed the Harrisburg data rabbit hole the last few days lol!! @Jns2183 I have a number of files that I have managed to pull together with Harrisburg's records dating back to 1888. Unfortunately I am blocked here at work from being able to upload anything to something like google docs to share anything that I have but I will try to see if I can figure something out. Like you had noted - there have been a number of location changes for Harrisburg where daily observations have occurred but I believe Harrisburg's official record dates back to 1888. I worked through the data and have managed to find what I believe are the transition dates for each site based on what NWS State College has used for daily/monthly/seasonal records for temperatures and or precipitation. My go to sites are through NCDC. Through this first link (not just for Harrisburg) there are a good number of archived data files for both airports as well as COOP and other stations. Only issue is that I don't know what data is and isn't available there to everyone as I have access to it. https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/IPS/ This second link below is likely a better resource as it allows downloads of significant amounts of data for stations. I have .PDF files with the daily summaries for each month for MDT, Capital City, and earlier but need to see if I can recall the steps I used to request this data. Same thing can be done for almost any available station so if someone is looking for data for somewhere not Harrisburg this may be a good resource too. https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/cdo-web/ While this may be a great resource - I have found occasional errors in the data that do not match up with other historical publications (likely occurring in the process of scanning the old files) so beware of occasional errors/discrepancies. Thank you for the great resources!!! I have seen some errors and currently am trying to account for a significant issue I found between reported precipitation totals from KMDT and KCXY in the winter time. From 2001 through January 24th, 2019 I looked at the difference in totals from October through March. I then look at when snow was reported at KMDT that was > a Trace, and that occurred on 22.8% of days with a precipitation difference, but those days accounted for 52.13% of the total difference. Then I looked at days it snowed 3"+ which occurred on just 4.82% of the days with a difference, but accounted for 31.16% of the total difference. These differences were almost entirely one sided in that KMDT reported more precipitation. I ran a correlation between snow and difference for all the days that differences occurred in January from 2001 through present and snow was correlated at 44.5% and squaring that gives r^2 of 19.8%, which means that the fact it snowed period, can explain 19.8% of the variability in the differences of precipitation between both stations. I think KCXY must be automated and having an issue with frozen precipitation and correct totals. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cashtown_Coop Posted January 28, 2019 Share Posted January 28, 2019 20 minutes ago, bubbler86 said: HRRR mostly agrees with Nam though it is advertising a plowable 4-6" just to the east of Cashtown along the mason dixon as well as in Nut land but again temps are not good so something is not right on that depiction. Mid to upper 30's when the snow is falling. I’ve set my bar at 2” for this one. Any more than that would be a bonus Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted January 28, 2019 Share Posted January 28, 2019 15 minutes ago, Cashtown_Coop said: I’ve set my bar at 2” for this one. Any more than that would be a bonus Im going w/ 3" for mby. Seems like I have a shot, but I'm a whisper away from very little here, so I'm prepping myself.....lol Hoping round 1 over preforms for all of you. Good luck gang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
djr5001 Posted January 28, 2019 Share Posted January 28, 2019 Seems to me like the main differences in runs/output is dependent on how much the frontal wave interacts with the front in our region and whether or not the areas in the WWA zone get that brief period of higher intensity tomorrow afternoon (12z Euro) or not (12&18z HRRR/NAM). Its early, but interaction doesn't look to be off to a great start across the south. If the frontal wave ends up east of the models at all I can see how Harrisburg struggles to reach even an inch. The NAM snowmaps seem to play up accumulating snow during the morning hours more than what most other models indicate may occur. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted January 28, 2019 Share Posted January 28, 2019 If MDT gets 1.5" I'll consider it a win. I'm skeptical. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted January 28, 2019 Share Posted January 28, 2019 13 minutes ago, djr5001 said: Seems to me like the main differences in runs/output is dependent on how much the frontal wave interacts with the front in our region and whether or not the areas in the WWA zone get that brief period of higher intensity tomorrow afternoon (12z Euro) or not (12&18z HRRR/NAM). Its early, but interaction doesn't look to be off to a great start across the south. If the frontal wave ends up east of the models at all I can see how Harrisburg struggles to reach even an inch. The NAM snowmaps seem to play up accumulating snow during the morning hours more than what most other models indicate may occur. Yep, two main camps out there. The Icon leading the "NWS just screwed up again" camp with just melting light snow around MDT. I would feel a lot better about tomorrow if it were not going to be near or above freezing. This is not a major snow either way and taking place during daylight will limit its disruption but that 3-6" forecast is ballsy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WmsptWx Posted January 28, 2019 Share Posted January 28, 2019 Can we please stop talking about Der Icon? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted January 28, 2019 Share Posted January 28, 2019 5 hours ago, Wmsptwx said: When would frontal squalls roll through area? From NWS AFD There remains the potential for localized snow squalls on Wednesday as the leading edge of -20C to -30C air at 850mb plows into central PA. Lake effect snow trajectories are focused outside of CTP CWA into extreme northwest PA (Erie Co.) and mainly southwest NY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 28, 2019 Share Posted January 28, 2019 Probably not a great storm if you're west of the Susq. and east of the Allegheny crest. This is shaping up to be a "Central PA middle finger" storm that skips over the central part of the state and redevelops for E PA. Hopefully it can at least be an inch or two in central areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted January 28, 2019 Share Posted January 28, 2019 I am about 3 miles from being in a winter storm warning as the county line and the border between CTP and Mt Holly is just outside of town over in Coaldale/Nesquehoning... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted January 28, 2019 Share Posted January 28, 2019 Next week looks like it wants to be a taste of spring. Might hit 50. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted January 28, 2019 Share Posted January 28, 2019 Next week is back to boring. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CarlislePaWx Posted January 29, 2019 Share Posted January 29, 2019 1 hour ago, paweather said: Next week is back to boring. I don't think the warmth is going to last long. All the indexes, EPO, AO, NAO are forecast to swing solidly into our favorable direction which will leave weeks 2, 3, and 4 of February in a very cold and stormy pattern. Euro weeklies have never given up on forecasting this and are still showing this for the eastern US. Personally, after this week's arctic outbreak I won't mind a break from the extreme cold for a bit. On the other hand it would be nice to build up a snow base, which even if we get one tomorrow might not be around come the end of this weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted January 29, 2019 Share Posted January 29, 2019 25 minutes ago, CarlislePaWx said: I don't think the warmth is going to last long. All the indexes, EPO, AO, NAO are forecast to swing solidly into our favorable direction which will leave weeks 2, 3, and 4 of February in a very cold and stormy pattern. Euro weeklies have never given up on forecasting this and are still showing this for the eastern US. Personally, after this week's arctic outbreak I won't mind a break from the extreme cold for a bit. On the other hand it would be nice to build up a snow base, which even if we get one tomorrow might not be around come the end of this weekend. Yes, it looks like only a 3 or 4 day warm up at the most starting on Sunday. According to tonight’s Euro weeklies, & recent runs of the GEFS & CFS, it looks like February could still be loaded with wintry potential if we can get some of the advertised -NAO blocking to deliver. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted January 29, 2019 Share Posted January 29, 2019 4 hours ago, canderson said: If MDT gets 1.5" I'll consider it a win. I'm skeptical. It wouldn’t be a winter storm around here if we didn’t get this type of post from @canderson ! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted January 29, 2019 Share Posted January 29, 2019 Radar looks like crap Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted January 29, 2019 Share Posted January 29, 2019 17 minutes ago, paweather said: Radar looks like crap I think the radar looks pretty good. There is precip tailing back along the front the whole way back to Texas. There is also also precip streaming in from the gulf down in Louisiana. This should feed in into the secondary wave that develops along the front tomorrow. Current temperatures look good too with current temps in the 20’s & dew points in the 10-15 range region wide. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted January 29, 2019 Share Posted January 29, 2019 3 hours ago, paweather said: Next week is back to boring. The 18z GFS says this place will be busy over the next 16 days ! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pawatch Posted January 29, 2019 Share Posted January 29, 2019 We just got bumped down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted January 29, 2019 Share Posted January 29, 2019 1 minute ago, pawatch said: We just got bumped down. I think these maps are automated depending on whatever the NAM spits out every 6 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted January 29, 2019 Share Posted January 29, 2019 They’ve dropped the WWA from 3-6 to 2-4 and hbg to 1-3 (was 2-4 earlier tonight(p). HRRR looks horrid, rain at Cashtown nearly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pawatch Posted January 29, 2019 Share Posted January 29, 2019 19 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said: I think these maps are automated depending on whatever the NAM spits out every 6 hours. Thanks! I was wondering what model/models they was using for them maps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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