pasnownut Posted January 28, 2019 Share Posted January 28, 2019 "You know Nut if you would just move up north for the winter a lot of your problems would be solved." I've also seen it a few years back when we had no rideable weekends at the cabin and got the goods down here. We all know it comes and goes....ebbs and flows. Yeah they get into it better than we do but, it really is a crap shoot and pattern and location dependent. Outside of the lake belt regions, no one place has a big advantage. We've all seen it/lived it. We just take turns. I'd trade places w/ many of you just because of location....no matter what the snow gods do in your area. Y'all live in some perty country. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted January 28, 2019 Share Posted January 28, 2019 Friggin RGEM suckin my @rse back in..... lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted January 28, 2019 Share Posted January 28, 2019 1 minute ago, pasnownut said: Friggin RGEM suckin my @rse back in..... lol You should check out the GFS then. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted January 28, 2019 Share Posted January 28, 2019 I am downgrading the west side of my first call with these questionable surface temps and the east trend. Mag, 2001KX, Bubbler, Carlisle, Canderson, Atomic, Cashtown, -1-3" wmsptwx, Nut, Itstrainingtime, Daxx, Voyager-3-5" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted January 28, 2019 Share Posted January 28, 2019 Just now, bubbler86 said: You should check out the GFS then. dude...11 hour coup.....just saw it... W T F....it might snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted January 28, 2019 Share Posted January 28, 2019 When hi res and ol man GFS start sayin the same thing, it make ya wanna believe. Not trying to hog ANYONES snow....but us eastern/southern folks have been waiting our turn. Looks like secondary pop means business. Hmmmmmm...... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted January 28, 2019 Share Posted January 28, 2019 4 minutes ago, bubbler86 said: I am downgrading the west side of my first call with these questionable surface temps and the east trend. Mag, 2001KX, Bubbler, Carlisle, Canderson, Atomic, Cashtown, -1-3" wmsptwx, Nut, Itstrainingtime, Daxx, Voyager-3-5" based on 12z's so far, thats in the 10x ring IMO. I still think ctp gets 2-3 w/ 4" lollies due to lift during frontal boundary passage. I/We put all of our faith in the secondary pop. Scary but I'll take it if it works. dips toe back into water...... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cashtown_Coop Posted January 28, 2019 Share Posted January 28, 2019 8 minutes ago, bubbler86 said: I am downgrading the west side of my first call with these questionable surface temps and the east trend. Mag, 2001KX, Bubbler, Carlisle, Canderson, Atomic, Cashtown, -1-3" wmsptwx, Nut, Itstrainingtime, Daxx, Voyager-3-5" Yeah prob a good call out this way Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted January 28, 2019 Share Posted January 28, 2019 6 minutes ago, Cashtown_Coop said: Yeah prob a good call out this way I am a bit worried with it as if we can keep surface temps down in the AM (we meaning far West LSV) we may get 1-3 in that morning slug then another 1-2 with the Front Passage possibly making my call bust low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted January 28, 2019 Share Posted January 28, 2019 19 minutes ago, pasnownut said: Friggin RGEM suckin my @rse back in..... lol Same old same old. Model mayhem right up until "go" time... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted January 28, 2019 Share Posted January 28, 2019 1 minute ago, bubbler86 said: I am a bit worried with it as if we can keep surface temps down in the AM (we meaning far West LSV) we may get 1-3 in that morning slug then another 1-2 with the Front Passage making my call bust low. That too is a concern i have as anyone who has a marginal boundary will "lose" snow. One good takeaway, is that event the warm blooded GFS has 850's safe at onset and they crash beyond that. It might just work out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted January 28, 2019 Share Posted January 28, 2019 Just now, Voyager said: Same old same old. Model mayhem right up until "go" time... But if it trends in the right direction, I can live with that..... I'm tired of stayin at Heartbreak Hotel..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted January 28, 2019 Share Posted January 28, 2019 Just now, Voyager said: Same old same old. Model mayhem right up until "go" time... In my eyes the mayhem makes it more fun...more of a challenge if one likes to do a forecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Santa Clause Posted January 28, 2019 Share Posted January 28, 2019 When would frontal squalls roll through area? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted January 28, 2019 Share Posted January 28, 2019 CMC is....ehh....1-3 for most of the state...3-4 far east LSV. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted January 28, 2019 Share Posted January 28, 2019 4 minutes ago, Wmsptwx said: When would frontal squalls roll through area? The GFS is more like a long term light to moderate snow vs. a squall line. Most of the day tomorrow. Front seems to go through your area around mid day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Santa Clause Posted January 28, 2019 Share Posted January 28, 2019 1 minute ago, bubbler86 said: The GFS is more like a long term light to moderate snow vs. a squall line. Most of the day tomorrow. Lol I'd rather the squalls...maybe it'll work out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted January 28, 2019 Share Posted January 28, 2019 Icon is an Eastern pa deal as well. Anyone west of the river is 1-2 at best. Still not sure this one is a win for us (me included). 3 model runs till go time is 2 too many IMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted January 28, 2019 Share Posted January 28, 2019 1 minute ago, Wmsptwx said: Lol I'd rather the squalls...maybe it'll work out. yeah, thats best case look IMO. We'd all take that and run (WRT this system). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted January 28, 2019 Share Posted January 28, 2019 2 minutes ago, pasnownut said: Icon is an Eastern pa deal as well. Anyone west of the river is 1-2 at best. Still not sure this one is a win for us (me included). 3 model runs till go time is 2 too many IMO. The Icon has still been doing quite well with consistency. I have only seen the FV3 through 18 but it sounded good based on a precip map posted in MA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted January 28, 2019 Share Posted January 28, 2019 FWIW, next week GFS is looking a little less hostile (out to 162 anyway). Warmup but not as torchy...so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted January 28, 2019 Share Posted January 28, 2019 2 minutes ago, bubbler86 said: The Icon has still been doing quite well with consistency. I have only seen the FV3 through 18 but it sounded good based on a precip map posted in MA. Yep. Some bash it....to me its just another tool in the warchest. To your point it has been a consistent model.....but not always right. In fairness theyve all struggled. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted January 28, 2019 Share Posted January 28, 2019 Just now, pasnownut said: Yep. Some bash it....to me its just another tool in the warchest. To your point it has been a consistent model.....but not always right. In fairness theyve all struggled. The Euro has been all over the place. Not performing well with these smaller events. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted January 28, 2019 Share Posted January 28, 2019 1 minute ago, bubbler86 said: The Euro has been all over the place. Not performing well with these smaller events. Since last GFS upgrade, i've put more faith in the GFS...especially NS events. I just dont get the bad wrap. They ALL can bust... While I understand the love affair some have w/ the Euro, it just has NOT performed well in the last couple years, and like any other model, its merely a tool. It's bias of holding energy back in the SW as well as being a tad cold blooded mean it is just another one of the bunch. I really look at ALL of them from a 10000 ft then 5000 ft view (meaning from afar, not for finer details) and jump to meso inside 36. No revelation there, but how this weenie does it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Santa Clause Posted January 28, 2019 Share Posted January 28, 2019 CTP nicely states situation will likely be watch as you go due to huge amounts of variables involved with each part of system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
djr5001 Posted January 28, 2019 Share Posted January 28, 2019 Ugh can't believe I missed the Harrisburg data rabbit hole the last few days lol!! @Jns2183 I have a number of files that I have managed to pull together with Harrisburg's records dating back to 1888. Unfortunately I am blocked here at work from being able to upload anything to something like google docs to share anything that I have but I will try to see if I can figure something out. Like you had noted - there have been a number of location changes for Harrisburg where daily observations have occurred but I believe Harrisburg's official record dates back to 1888. I worked through the data and have managed to find what I believe are the transition dates for each site based on what NWS State College has used for daily/monthly/seasonal records for temperatures and or precipitation. My go to sites are through NCDC. Through this first link (not just for Harrisburg) there are a good number of archived data files for both airports as well as COOP and other stations. Only issue is that I don't know what data is and isn't available there to everyone as I have access to it. https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/IPS/ This second link below is likely a better resource as it allows downloads of significant amounts of data for stations. I have .PDF files with the daily summaries for each month for MDT, Capital City, and earlier but need to see if I can recall the steps I used to request this data. Same thing can be done for almost any available station so if someone is looking for data for somewhere not Harrisburg this may be a good resource too. https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/cdo-web/ While this may be a great resource - I have found occasional errors in the data that do not match up with other historical publications (likely occurring in the process of scanning the old files) so beware of occasional errors/discrepancies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted January 28, 2019 Share Posted January 28, 2019 LWX is going with up top 4" at the Mason-Dixon line. Seems high. If the offices coordinate that would suggest CTP should be going 2-4 area wide, east of the mountains, with higher totals on the east side of their area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted January 28, 2019 Share Posted January 28, 2019 While we're clearly focused on this front passage and the cold that follows, make sure to check out the cold in the midwest. Chicago might hit -20. Parts of Wisconsin and Minnesota might hit -35 actual temperature. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sauss06 Posted January 28, 2019 Share Posted January 28, 2019 1 minute ago, canderson said: While we're clearly focused on this front passage and the cold that follows, make sure to check out the cold in the midwest. Chicago might hit -20. Parts of Wisconsin and Minnesota might hit -35 actual temperature. I like extremes, but screw that chit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pawatch Posted January 28, 2019 Share Posted January 28, 2019 1 hour ago, Wmsptwx said: CTP nicely states situation will likely be watch as you go due to huge amounts of variables involved with each part of system. CTP got burnt last week...They are treading lightly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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