Central PA - Jan/Feb 2019 Obs and Discussion

[Blizzard of 93]

3 hours ago, MAG5035 said:

Alot of leftover black ice on some of the back roads around here today. It'll be interesting to see how far temps drop in the regions with a decent snowpack if the winds calm later tonight as the high pressure moves overhead. 

First order of business this week is going to be Tues Night/Wednesday. Pretty strong signal for a front end ice threat so would expect advisories for the morning rush on Wednesday. With the magnitude of the preceding cold air currently in place, it could be one of those situations you could get icy patches on untreated cold surfaces even if the air temp is a tick or two above freezing. Temps eventually warm some Wednesday and then we'll have to keep an eye on the evolution of the secondary frontal wave that rides up that could provide some back end snow Wed Night. 

Yes, Wednesday night & Thursday am need watched for a change back to snow with the secondary wave.

The 18z NAM likes that idea .

[Blizzard of 93]

1 hour ago, pasnownut said:

Happy hour wants to deliver.....

CMC/Fv3/Icon all looking quite active and they all put snow down (Fv3 is a weenie delight).

Plenty of chances coming if they are right.  Next Monday looks like a doozy.

 

Yes, I’m getting excited for the multiple snow chances for the remainder of January. 

We have the chance of the follow up wave on Wednesday night & Thursday am.

Then Sunday & Monday is loaded with potential if things time right there could be a major east coast storm,

Then, some models like the idea of another storm to end the month next Wednesday & Thursday.

Here is the GFS FV-3 for This Sunday night. Some other models have been showing this possibility the last few days as well. I would sign up right now though for this FV-3 solution !

[CarlislePaWx]

Wow...the Fv3 gives MDT 4.8" of snow Thursday morning between 12Z and 18Z!  It then dissipates as you go further east.  Must be unique timing of temps with energy along the front?

47 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said:

Yes, I’m getting excited for the multiple snow chances for the remainder of January. 

We have the chance of the follow up wave on Wednesday night & Thursday am.

Then Sunday & Monday is loaded with potential if things time right there could be a major east coast storm,

Then, some models like the idea of another storm to end the month next Wednesday & Thursday.

Here is the GFS FV-3 for This Sunday night. Some other models have been showing this possibility the last few days as well. I would sign up right now though for this FV-3 solution !

That 970 low is so wound up the big snows miss west of the Susquehanna.  Of course It's also 6 days out so I'm not particularly worried.  

This is likely the storm Larry Cosgrove was talking about that was likely going to form in the 6-10 day timeframe (2 days ago).  A real monster if that pressure came to fruition.  970 would be less than 10mb away from the pressure of the superstorm when it was at our latitude.

 

[Blizzard of 93]

13 minutes ago, CarlislePaWx said:

Wow...the Fv3 gives MDT 4.8" of snow Thursday morning between 12Z and 18Z!  It then dissipates as you go further east.  Must be unique timing of temps with energy along the front?

That 970 low is so wound up the big snows miss west of the Susquehanna.  Of course It's also 6 days out so I'm not particularly worried.  

This is likely the storm Larry Cosgrove was talking about that was likely going to form in the 6-10 day timeframe (2 days ago).  A real monster if that pressure came to fruition.  970 would be less than 10mb away from the pressure of the superstorm when it was at our latitude.

 

A 970 low just off the Delmarva coast would have a much larger precip shield with a ton of moisture pushed well inland.

Hopefully more Op & ensemble runs continue to show this potential over the next couple of days.

[sauss06]

15 hours ago, canderson said:

The Walnut St Bridge n Harrisburg always washed away on this date. So says PennLive.

what a winter, you would have loved it. 

 

i had 11 this morning. 

[anotherman]

[2001kx]

-7 here this morning..

[Voyager]

Heat wave here. It's +6f as opposed to the +2f I had yesterday morning...

[2001kx]

3 minutes ago, Voyager said:

Heat wave here. It's +6f as opposed to the +2f I had yesterday morning...

Balmy 

[Cashtown_Coop]

2 here 

[canderson]

11 was MDT’s low, 7 degrees above forecast. 

[Superstorm]

Maybe some rain changing to snow midweek.

Then cold/dry or cutters, warm and wet looks like pattern next couple weeks.


.

[canderson]

32 minutes ago, Superstorm said:

Maybe some rain changing to snow midweek.

Then cold/dry or cutters, warm and wet looks like pattern next couple weeks.


.

Unless that massive ridge out west moves nothing big will be on the horizon. Like you said, a swap between cold/dry and wet/warm repeatedly. Kinda depressing we're blowing the best climo period here but it is what it is. I'm sure March will get us a massive storm per usual. 

[pasnownut]

15 minutes ago, canderson said:

Unless that massive ridge out west moves nothing big will be on the horizon. Like you said, a swap between cold/dry and wet/warm repeatedly. Kinda depressing we're blowing the best climo period here but it is what it is. I'm sure March will get us a massive storm per usual. 

Lets be reminded that while the state didnt cash in on the touted "big one", the northern 2/3 are white and the top tier notably so.  IF i'd have 6" of snow on the ground, I'd be just giddy right now.  I'm brown.  

Look at the models, much of the state still likely cashes in on some dirty snow.  Not ideal, but I'd take it if I had snowpack.    

[anotherman]

I know this will not be a popular subject, but it may be possible that climate change is making model performance erratic.  The oceans are warmer, the circulations are changing.  It makes using analogs risky.  The players on the field are changing so the outcome of the game will be different.  I'm not sure the models can account for everything right now.

[pasnownut]

2 minutes ago, anotherman said:

I know this will not be a popular subject, but it may be possible that climate change is making model performance erratic.  The oceans are warmer, the circulations are changing.  It makes using analogs risky.  The players on the field are changing so the outcome of the game will be different.  I'm not sure the models can account for everything right now.

likely HAS to play some factor.  Lets not call it change, call it EVOLUTION.  its SO much less scary.

hehe

[Jns2183]

likely HAS to play some factor.  Lets not call it change, call it EVOLUTION.  its SO much less scary.
hehe

Is there a way to view the CIPS analogs, once the government opens back up, in a probabilistic manner?


. Pro

[pasnownut]

19 minutes ago, Jns2183 said:

Is there a way to view the CIPS analogs, once the government opens back up, in a probabilistic manner?


. Pro

http://www.eas.slu.edu/CIPS/SVRprob/SVRprob.php

[Bubbler86]

9 minutes ago, anotherman said:

I know this will not be a popular subject, but it may be possible that climate change is making model performance erratic.  The oceans are warmer, the circulations are changing.  It makes using analogs risky.  The players on the field are changing so the outcome of the game will be different.  I'm not sure the models can account for everything right now.

I alluded to this possibility before in comparing winters of the past to now...Climate change and winter weather (modeled or actual).   Unfortunately I do not have the data to back up anything but I feel something has changed since 20-30 years ago.  Whether that something also changed 20-30 years before that or we are in a whole new territory, the data would need to be parsed to confirm that.  MDT's average snowfall seems to be near or above average the last 5-10 years but the amount of snowfalls feels less re: We get most of our snowfall in large chunks compared to the frequent 2-6" types snows in the 70's-90's.   This does not just relate to the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic either so it is not just an IMBY issue.   Winters in the Southeast used to include frequent rainy periods when systems would form in or near the Gulf and slide over Florida or Georgia and either out to sea or up the coast.  Over the past decade or two it is not happening that frequently anymore and is contributing to what seems like a never ending drought down there though this past summer has softened that a bit.

 

 

[Jns2183]

I alluded to this possibility before in comparing winters of the past to now...Climate change and winter weather (modeled or actual).   Unfortunately I do not have the data to back up anything but I feel something has changed since 20-30 years ago.  Whether that something also changed 20-30 years before that or we are in a whole new territory, the data would need to be parsed to confirm that.  MDT's average snowfall seems to be near or above average the last 5-10 years but the amount of snowfalls feels less re: We get most of our snowfall in large chunks compared to the frequent 2-6" types snows in the 70's-90's.   This does not just relate to the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic either so it is not just an IMBY issue.   Winters in the Southeast used to include frequent rainy periods when systems would form in or near the Gulf and slide over Florida or Georgia and either out to sea or up the coast.  Over the past decade or two it is not happening that frequently anymore and is contributing to what seems like a never ending drought down there though this past summer has softened that a bit.
 
 

I have some free time today. Anyone have a link to daily rain, snow, temp observations from kmdt and other local sites for the duration of there records?


. Pro

[Jns2183]

http://www.eas.slu.edu/CIPS/SVRprob/SVRprob.php

Thank you


. Pro

[Bubbler86]

Just now, Jns2183 said:

 

I have some free time today. Anyone have a link to daily rain, snow, temp observations from kmdt and other local sites for the duration of there records?


. Pro

 

This is what I use and shows daily records as needed.  I just did not go back and verify my thoughts vs. comparing how winters seem to play out now and how I remember them.

https://w2.weather.gov/climate/xmacis.php?wfo=ctp

 

 

 

[Bubbler86]

28 minutes ago, Jns2183 said:

Thank you


. Pro

Here is an interesting link from Millersville.   Just change the date portion of URL for the decade.   Quick scan on the 70's, 80's and 2000's shows 90-100 snowfalls each decade (taking out trace records).  The 90's certainly stands out as having less than 90 snowfalls but the highest total snowfall of any of these decades.

http://www.atmos.millersville.edu/~wic/climo/snow1980s.htm

 

 

 

[anotherman]

It's not necessarily the averages, it's the change in atmosphere and ocean circulation and cycles.  Once again, I have no way to prove it, but it seems to throw models for a loop.

[Superstorm]

It's not necessarily the averages, it's the change in atmosphere and ocean circulation and cycles.  Once again, I have no way to prove it, but it seems to throw models for a loop.

I think it’s why we have had so many big snowstorms in the past 25 years.

And why most of the big storms have been focused on the I-95


.

[Bubbler86]

15 minutes ago, Superstorm said:

I think it’s why we have had so many big snowstorms in the past 25 years.

And why most of the big storms have been focused on the I-95


.

I looked for snowfalls of 10" or over in that Millersville thread I posted and the last 9-10 years does come in first.  Quick scan so could be off by one on any given decade

 

2010's-7

2000's-3

1990's-4

1980's-2

1970's-4

 

 

[canderson]

CTP isn't impressed much at all with any frozen precip the next few days. <.1" ice tomorrow morning and a slight chance of snow showers Thursday, calling for mostly rain.

Talking about the LSV. 

[Santa Clause]

Thinking between snow pack, dense cold air and deep valley location it might be a little difficult to scour cold air out up in NCPA.

[Gosnow]

Concerning weather models and global warming. I am familiar with modeling but not weather modeling. The question i would think is how much of a model starts from historical values or averages. As the weather changes over time those I think those could become out of step with current conditions. A model reading real time data which I would guess they all do sampled within the past few days or week I would think those would have more weight in the algorithms. I think for the most part they get general features right it is the details that get muddied which is I know what usually concerns us most.

[pawatch]

37 minutes ago, Wmsptwx said:

Thinking between snow pack, dense cold air and deep valley location it might be a little difficult to scour cold air out up in NCPA.

It's kind of frustrating here was the temp this morning and tomorrow rain.