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Central PA - Jan/Feb 2019 Obs and Discussion


MAG5035

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28 minutes ago, CarlislePaWx said:

This morning my point n click said my temp would drop to 19 by 5:00pm.  Now, shortly after 4:00 I am down to 23.  Don't think I'll make it to 19 by 5:00, but except for when the sun was out strong a few hours ago the temp has been on a gradual downhill slide most of the past 6 hours.  I've had multiple wind gusts into the mid-upper 20's as well.

The barometric pressure here bottomed out around 7:00am at 992 mb or 29.30".  That low was pretty strong.  I don't remember it ever being progged to be in the low 990's.  I remember seeing upper 990's.  I guess that played into the further NW movement overall with the storm.

Wonder what's in store for us midweek after the warmer portion of the storm is through? 

Looks like rain or ice to rain for a lot of us.

The storm at the end of the month looks that it could be BIG.

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17 minutes ago, pawatch said:

Looks like rain or ice to rain for a lot of us.

The storm at the end of the month looks that it could be BIG.

I was referring to the part that comes after the rain in the Thursday timeframe.

Regarding later in the period, in Larry Cosgrove's weekly newsletter that came out last night he said to be on the lookout in the 6 to 10 day timeframe for an east coast storm along with no shortage of available arctic air already in place.  So, it does look like things are going to begin to get exciting again after our brief midweek warm up.

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The 12z Euro Op today brought 3 chances for snow in the next 10 days.

First, there is a chance of a follow up wave later this week.

Then Sunday into Monday there is a chance of a coastal storm.

Then, the run ends with an over running storm that is underway that would still be snowing on us if the run extended 1 more day. 

Here is the 10 day Euro snow map.

 

A803B250-512B-407C-BE66-A28264A3F837.png

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7 minutes ago, 2001kx said:

lunar eclipse happening right now if you can see it.

It finally cleared all the way out down here just in time after some clouds and flurries earlier. Really nice view of it right now, although it is down to 5ºF outside haha.

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22 minutes ago, CarlislePaWx said:

This is the reddest total lunar eclipse I have ever seen.  Magnificent.  Also frigid.  Will be easy to remember the two events connected together in the future.  Down to 9.7 F.

Great cold air for good pictures if you can brave the elements lol

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7 in Akron.  No snow cover and wind likely kept radiational cooling from really taking it lower.

No snow... I dont need it that cold.

At least the ground will be a rock when the rain comes on Wednesday.  I should go out and cut my lawn lower, so I can ice skate on it Thursday (yes I know there is a chance at backend snow, but I'm not big on anafrontal snows.  Sure hope I'm wrong, but that follow up wave seems to go wide right.    

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3 hours ago, pasnownut said:

7 in Akron.  No snow cover and wind likely kept radiational cooling from really taking it lower.

No snow... I dont need it that cold.

At least the ground will be a rock when the rain comes on Wednesday.  I should go out and cut my lawn lower, so I can ice skate on it Thursday (yes I know there is a chance at backend snow, but I'm not big on anafrontal snows.  Sure hope I'm wrong, but that follow up wave seems to go wide right.    

yeah heading back into more of a boring look this week.

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4 minutes ago, paweather said:

yeah heading back into more of a boring look this week.

NAM and Fv3 like Thursday for same areas that stayed frozen over the weekend as a trailing piece rides up the boundary.

Not sure I'm biting, but I'll keep my eye on it.  We dont do well waiting for cold down here.  True centra and north...sure.

 

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49 minutes ago, pasnownut said:

NAM and Fv3 like Thursday for same areas that stayed frozen over the weekend as a trailing piece rides up the boundary.

Not sure I'm biting, but I'll keep my eye on it.  We dont do well waiting for cold down here.  True centra and north...sure.

 

i'm heading to lanco county Thursday evening, keep those roads clear

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Off Topic but worth posting.

Twenty years ago, today (January 19, 1996), Susque's region experienced the worst flooding in the valley's recorded history.  Following merely weeks after an incredible blizzard, the valley warmed up to 60 degrees and received an abundance of rain.  The snow melted and Lycoming Creek rose to over 22 feet!  In fact, it rose above any reliable gauges and scales, so the true crest is unknown. The "Green Bridge" met its demise that day, as well as the abutment of the old train bridge.

Here are some pictures taken by those of us at Susque that day.  It is certainly awe-inspiring to see the power of those rushing waters.  It took only a few seconds between the bridge detaching and then disappearing underwater.

image.jpg

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I almost lost my car in Easton, PA during that flooding event. My dad and I went down and parked at the park on Larry Holmes Drive near where the Lehigh flows into the Delaware. An ice jam formed down stream and the river rose incredibly fast. I ran back to my car and got it out just in time as the waters engulfed and inundated the lot in mere minutes. Never seen anything like it in my life.

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Alot of leftover black ice on some of the back roads around here today. It'll be interesting to see how far temps drop in the regions with a decent snowpack if the winds calm later tonight as the high pressure moves overhead. 

First order of business this week is going to be Tues Night/Wednesday. Pretty strong signal for a front end ice threat so would expect advisories for the morning rush on Wednesday. With the magnitude of the preceding cold air currently in place, it could be one of those situations you could get icy patches on untreated cold surfaces even if the air temp is a tick or two above freezing. Temps eventually warm some Wednesday and then we'll have to keep an eye on the evolution of the secondary frontal wave that rides up that could provide some back end snow Wed Night. 

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