Chicago Storm Posted January 27, 2019 Share Posted January 27, 2019 10 minutes ago, beavis1729 said: No, that was a different location in 2014...I think it was RPJ (Rochelle, IL). The -30 was not deemed official. SQI or RPJ, forgot which one. @RCNYILWX would know. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jim Martin Posted January 27, 2019 Share Posted January 27, 2019 NAM right in line with the GFS, Canadian, and Euro in terms of the dangerous low wind chill temperatures for Wednesday Morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 27, 2019 Share Posted January 27, 2019 Here's actual temps. Keep in mind lows would tend to occur 1-2 hours later. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 27, 2019 Share Posted January 27, 2019 GFS at 12z Wednesday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted January 27, 2019 Share Posted January 27, 2019 36 minutes ago, Hoosier said: GFS at 12z Wednesday Just simply amazing to see that level of cold with winds still whipping at 10-15kts. Usually to get temps in that -20 to -30 range you need to have ultra-optimal radiational cooling like what we had early this morning. Even then it's usually only the favored low-lying areas that get in on those extremely low readings. If the above works out and we see widespread -25 or lower this will definitely be one to remember. Looks like Thursday morning has the best shot at getting into all-time record territory. That's when the surface ridge axis moves into the sub and drops winds to nearly calm. Of course WAA will already be taking place above the surface, but there's usually a lag down near the surface with these extreme arctic setups. If clouds don't muck things up I can def see Thursday morning being the one to watch for the lowest readings of this setup in the DVN/LOT areas. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 27, 2019 Share Posted January 27, 2019 MEX mos continues to trend colder and now has -25 at ORD on Wednesday morning. Also only recovering to -14 in the afternoon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 27, 2019 Share Posted January 27, 2019 Besides temps, dews will be something that is rarely seen so far south. Widespread -30 to -40 dews, maybe lower in some spots. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted January 27, 2019 Share Posted January 27, 2019 1 hour ago, cyclone77 said: Just simply amazing to see that level of cold with winds still whipping at 10-15kts. Usually to get temps in that -20 to -30 range you need to have ultra-optimal radiational cooling like what we had early this morning. Even then it's usually only the favored low-lying areas that get in on those extremely low readings. If the above works out and we see widespread -25 or lower this will definitely be one to remember. Looks like Thursday morning has the best shot at getting into all-time record territory. That's when the surface ridge axis moves into the sub and drops winds to nearly calm. Of course WAA will already be taking place above the surface, but there's usually a lag down near the surface with these extreme arctic setups. If clouds don't muck things up I can def see Thursday morning being the one to watch for the lowest readings of this setup in the DVN/LOT areas. New Euro now shows -30 to -33 readings Thu morning over northwest IL/extreme eastern IA. Also only -20 around noon on Wed for the same areas. Very impressive. EDIT: I should point out the 12z Euro showed 63 degree warmth the following Monday over these same areas. I'd wager my retirement fund anything over 60 is not possible no matter what kind of insane pattern shift took place. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted January 27, 2019 Share Posted January 27, 2019 8 minutes ago, cyclone77 said: New Euro now shows -30 to -33 readings Thu morning over northwest IL/extreme eastern IA. Also only -20 around noon on Wed for the same areas. Very impressive. EDIT: I should point out the 12z Euro showed 63 degree warmth the following Monday over these same areas. I'd wager my retirement fund anything over 60 is not possible no matter what kind of insane pattern shift took place. Probably a fair bet. Deep frozen ground, snowpack, and a quick turnaround? No way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 27, 2019 Share Posted January 27, 2019 00z Euro has a spot of -38C 850 mb temps on the IL/WI border at 12z Wednesday. Will be curious to see which model's 2m temp progs do best with this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MNstorms Posted January 27, 2019 Author Share Posted January 27, 2019 Quote Wind Chill Watch URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN 403 AM CST Sun Jan 27 2019 Dangerous wind chills of 60 below zero to 35 below zero are expected Tuesday morning through Thursday morning in western and central Minnesota. Wind chills of 35 below zero and lower are expected Tuesday afternoon through Thursday morning in east central MN and west central Minnesota. The dangerously cold wind chills could cause frostbite on exposed skin in as little as 5 minutes. Should be fun. Quote International Falls MN 27 Jan 3:55 am CST Mostly Cloudy with Haze -42°F -41°C Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheRegionRat Posted January 27, 2019 Share Posted January 27, 2019 4 hours ago, Hoosier said: 00z Euro has a spot of -38C 850 mb temps on the IL/WI border at 12z Wednesday. Will be curious to see which model's 2m temp progs do best with this. Hoosier, any data on the records for Gary? I distinctly recall the cold events of 1985 and 1996. The 2019 edition could take the cake. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DLMKA Posted January 27, 2019 Share Posted January 27, 2019 I’m going to be in Fargo this week and I would like to see the crossover point where Celsius is a larger number than Fahrenheit. It’s probably a stretch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beavis1729 Posted January 27, 2019 Share Posted January 27, 2019 Record coldest wind chills by state on the new scale, as best I can tell: MN: -66 at Duluth, 1/10/1982 IA: -64 at Waterloo, 12/24/1983 WI: -59 at Eau Claire, 1/10/1982 IL: -60 at Chicago, 1/20/1985 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geoboy645 Posted January 27, 2019 Share Posted January 27, 2019 27 minutes ago, beavis1729 said: Record coldest wind chills by state on the new scale, as best I can tell: MN: -66 at Duluth, 1/10/1982 IA: -64 at Waterloo, 12/24/1983 WI: -59 at Eau Claire, 1/10/1982 IL: -60 at Chicago, 1/20/1985 Quick someone find that record windchills thread from the middle of last summer. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beavis1729 Posted January 27, 2019 Share Posted January 27, 2019 23 minutes ago, Geoboy645 said: Quick someone find that record windchills thread from the middle of last summer. Who knew it would eventually be so handy. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beavis1729 Posted January 27, 2019 Share Posted January 27, 2019 INL hit -46 this morning...wow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beavis1729 Posted January 27, 2019 Share Posted January 27, 2019 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beavis1729 Posted January 27, 2019 Share Posted January 27, 2019 Verbatim, this would break the all-time record low wind chill in IA and IL...although it's probably overdone a bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beavis1729 Posted January 27, 2019 Share Posted January 27, 2019 8 hours ago, Hoosier said: 00z Euro has a spot of -38C 850 mb temps on the IL/WI border at 12z Wednesday. Will be curious to see which model's 2m temp progs do best with this. And the 06z GFS shows -37C in the same area. Pretty amazing. It seems pretty certain that -35C H85 temps or colder will occur in parts of IL. If so, you'd have to think that LOT's forecast lows could be a bit conservative on Wed morning (generally -20 to -23)...but of course it makes sense to go conservative for now, then they can always bring temps down a bit over the next 12-24 hours if the models hold on to this. Unfortunately, it looks like the core of the coldest air moves out quickly. I now think that Wed morning will probably have both the coldest temps and the strongest winds in the Chicago area. Rural areas of N IL may be different. The radiational cooling on Thu morning may be better, but H85 temps will have warmed significantly by then...to around -25C. Will be interesting to see how this plays out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted January 27, 2019 Share Posted January 27, 2019 1 minute ago, beavis1729 said: And the 06z GFS shows -37C in the same area. Pretty amazing. It seems pretty certain that -35C H85 temps or colder will occur in parts of IL. If so, you'd have to think that LOT's forecast lows could be a bit conservative on Wed morning (generally -20 to -23)...but of course it makes sense to go conservative for now, then they can always bring temps down a bit over the next 12-24 hours if the models hold on to this. Considering MBY and several other areas out this way went to -24 the other night, someone is going to make a run at the deep -30’s Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 27, 2019 Share Posted January 27, 2019 3 hours ago, TheRegionRat said: Hoosier, any data on the records for Gary? I distinctly recall the cold events of 1985 and 1996. The 2019 edition could take the cake. Sorry, don't have data for Gary. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 27, 2019 Share Posted January 27, 2019 LOT is explicitly forecasting the all time record low max to be broken in Chicago. With it still being 3 days away, the potential is there for further downward adjustments. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaveNay Posted January 27, 2019 Share Posted January 27, 2019 1 minute ago, Hoosier said: LOT is explicitly forecasting the all time record low max to be broken in Chicago. With it still being 3 days away, the potential is there for further downward adjustments. or upward. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 27, 2019 Share Posted January 27, 2019 37 minutes ago, DaveNay said: or upward. Well, anything is possible lol. It is noteworthy though because the NWS is typically conservative with forecasting records, and we're talking about an all timer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 27, 2019 Share Posted January 27, 2019 The FV3 is still like a coldpocalypse. Has about -37 at ORD on Wednesday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AppsRunner Posted January 27, 2019 Share Posted January 27, 2019 We only managed to get to -5 last night which is encouraging. Wonder how the cold will be handled by people. Obviously the schools will close but what about businesses/universities? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sciascia Posted January 27, 2019 Share Posted January 27, 2019 7 minutes ago, AppsRunner said: We only managed to get to -5 last night which is encouraging. Wonder how the cold will be handled by people. Obviously the schools will close but what about businesses/universities? Temperatures are going to be at a point where it’s not only a risk for older people to be outside, but pretty much anyone. I hope some businesses take that into consideration before opening, especially when they aren’t going to have much in the way of business. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted January 27, 2019 Share Posted January 27, 2019 11 minutes ago, AppsRunner said: We only managed to get to -5 last night which is encouraging. Wonder how the cold will be handled by people. Obviously the schools will close but what about businesses/universities? Airlines already offering free changes on Wednesday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beavis1729 Posted January 27, 2019 Share Posted January 27, 2019 47 minutes ago, Hoosier said: The FV3 is still like a coldpocalypse. Has about -37 at ORD on Wednesday. Crazy. Will be fun to see the HRRR temps over the next couple of days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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