beavis1729 Posted January 26, 2019 Share Posted January 26, 2019 54 minutes ago, Geoboy645 said: Also the records for Illinois are -36 set in 1999 at East St Louis, for Minnesota -60 set in 1996 at Tower, for Michigan -51 set in 1934 at Vanderbilt, and for Indiana -36 set in 1994 at New Whiteland and for Iowa -47 set in 1996 at Elkader. I'd say the most likely records to be broken would probably be Illinois and Iowa with a medium chance for Wisconsin and an outside shot for Minnesota and Indiana. Good info. Unfortunately, it looks like clouds and/or wind could prevent temps from dropping as low as they otherwise could, given the airmass in place. I hope I am wrong. Still a bit too far away to pin down the details. If any locations can clear out or have lighter winds, then things could definitely get out of hand. Either way, wind chills will be extreme, possibly down to -50 in northern IL. On 1/6/2014, I believe wind chills bottomed near -45. At this point, I would guess the following lowest temps by state: IL -30, IA -35, WI -35, MN -40. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beavis1729 Posted January 26, 2019 Share Posted January 26, 2019 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beavis1729 Posted January 26, 2019 Share Posted January 26, 2019 Wind chills off the charts... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 26, 2019 Share Posted January 26, 2019 Still a bit out there, but we are getting close enough to be able to dive into some specifics. I'd say there could be a couple shots to approach the all-time record low at ORD. The first coming on Wednesday morning, which is more of an advective driven cold at that point with a bitter airmass aloft and winds staying fairly elevated. Then another one potentially coming on Thursday morning after having an extremely cold starting point Wednesday evening. Overall, Wednesday night/Thursday morning certainly looks like a better radiational cooling setup than Wednesday morning, though even then it appears the winds may not completely die off especially in/around the city. Also, the airmass aloft looks like it will be warming by late Wednesday into Thursday, so not having full decoupling could be a problem. I'm still not ready to predict an all-time record low for ORD, but to me, if it happens, the better chance of it occurring is on Wednesday morning because that is when the radiational cooling component is minimized, and anybody who pays attention knows that ORD can have problems with radiating. That being said, Thursday can't be ruled out due to what was mentioned above about the extremely cold starting point. Just my 2 cents and thoughts subject to change. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherbo Posted January 26, 2019 Share Posted January 26, 2019 -27 here this morning. I could hear things creaking and at one point heard a super loud pop somewhere near the house. I assume it was a tree. 000 NOUS43 KMQT 261456 PNSMQT MIZ001>007-009>014-084-085-270256- PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI 956 AM EST SAT JAN 26 2019 ...SUMMARY OF COLDEST WIND CHILLS MORNING OF SATURDAY JANUARY 26... LOCATION TEMP TIME/DATE LAT/LON ...MICHIGAN... ...ALGER COUNTY... 2 SSW TRENARY -31 F 0829 AM 01/26 46.16N/86.98W MUNISING -28 F 0756 AM 01/26 46.41N/86.65W AU TRAIN -27 F 0702 AM 01/26 46.43N/86.84W 8 SSW WETMORE -25 F 0504 AM 01/26 46.25N/86.71W CHATHAM -15 F 0816 AM 01/26 46.34N/86.93W CHATHAM -14 F 0900 AM 01/26 46.34N/86.93W 1 ENE MUNISING -10 F 0559 AM 01/26 46.43N/86.62W ...BARAGA COUNTY... 4 NNW WATTON -30 F 0803 AM 01/26 46.60N/88.63W 3 SSW PELKIE -22 F 0613 AM 01/26 46.78N/88.66W 2 S BARAGA -19 F 0926 AM 01/26 46.74N/88.50W ...DELTA COUNTY... DELTA CO. AIRPORT -33 F 0756 AM 01/26 45.72N/87.09W 7 SW STEUBEN -32 F 0804 AM 01/26 46.13N/86.58W GARDEN CORNERS -32 F 0805 AM 01/26 45.90N/86.55W 3 N ESCANABA -31 F 0432 AM 01/26 45.79N/87.08W 2 SE RAPID RIVER -31 F 0803 AM 01/26 45.90N/86.93W RAPID RIVER -27 F 0251 AM 01/26 45.93N/86.98W 2 ENE FORD RIVER -25 F 0934 AM 01/26 45.69N/87.11W 3 SE CORNELL -24 F 0800 AM 01/26 45.86N/87.18W ...DICKINSON COUNTY... 1 NNW RANDVILLE -27 F 0813 AM 01/26 46.00N/88.06W KINGSFORD -24 F 0354 AM 01/26 45.82N/88.11W 2 NNW NORWAY -21 F 0848 AM 01/26 45.81N/87.92W ...GOGEBIC COUNTY... IRONWOOD AIRPORT -37 F 0256 AM 01/26 46.53N/90.13W 6 ESE WAKEFIELD -33 F 0801 AM 01/26 46.44N/89.83W WAKEFIELD -32 F 0751 AM 01/26 46.48N/89.95W WATERSMEET -29 F 0737 AM 01/26 46.27N/89.17W ...HOUGHTON COUNTY... 1 WSW TWIN LAKES -35 F 0818 AM 01/26 46.88N/88.86W 1 E TROUT CREEK -29 F 0833 AM 01/26 46.48N/88.99W 2 NE ARNHEIM -22 F 0851 AM 01/26 46.95N/88.45W 4 NNW HANCOCK -19 F 0852 AM 01/26 47.19N/88.63W ...IRON COUNTY... 2 E PEAVY FALLS DAM -31 F 0746 AM 01/26 46.00N/88.16W ...KEWEENAW COUNTY... WINDIGO - ISLE ROYALE -27 F 1124 PM 01/25 47.91N/89.14W ...LUCE COUNTY... NEWBERRY -31 F 0835 AM 01/26 46.31N/85.46W 2 ESE MCMILLAN -29 F 0600 AM 01/26 46.31N/85.65W ...MARQUETTE COUNTY... SAWYER AIRPORT -37 F 0945 AM 01/26 46.35N/87.40W 2 WNW GWINN -32 F 0812 AM 01/26 46.29N/87.47W 1 W SUNDELL -30 F 0636 AM 01/26 46.35N/87.12W 3 WSW SHOT POINT -30 F 0702 AM 01/26 46.49N/87.23W 2 SSE WITCH LAKE -28 F 0902 AM 01/26 46.25N/88.01W MARQUETTE COAST GUARD -27 F 0718 AM 01/26 46.55N/87.38W MARQUETTE -25 F 0432 AM 01/26 46.55N/87.39W MARQUETTE -23 F 0203 AM 01/26 46.54N/87.40W 2 NW NATIONAL MINE -20 F 0645 AM 01/26 46.49N/87.72W 2 SSE TROWBRIDGE PARK -10 F 0601 AM 01/26 46.53N/87.42W ...MENOMINEE COUNTY... MENOMINEE AIRPORT -35 F 0756 AM 01/26 45.13N/87.64W 8 ESE GOURLEY -27 F 0806 AM 01/26 45.55N/87.27W 1 WNW LA BRANCHE -26 F 0812 AM 01/26 45.89N/87.49W STEPHENSON -24 F 0700 AM 01/26 45.41N/87.61W ...ONTONAGON COUNTY... 1 ESE ROCKLAND -29 F 0841 AM 01/26 46.72N/89.15W 6 E MASS CITY -26 F 0903 AM 01/26 46.77N/88.95W ...SCHOOLCRAFT COUNTY... SCHOOLCRAFT CO. AIRPORT -30 F 0716 AM 01/26 45.97N/86.17W PORT INLAND -25 F 0900 AM 01/26 45.97N/85.87W 1 S BLANEY PARK -22 F 0437 AM 01/26 46.10N/85.93W 1 SW GERMFASK -17 F 0903 AM 01/26 46.24N/85.94W ...MARITIME STATIONS... BIG BAY -24 F 0620 AM 01/26 46.83N/87.72W GRAND MARAIS -21 F 0800 AM 01/26 46.68N/85.98W OBSERVATIONS ARE COLLECTED FROM A VARIETY OF SOURCES WITH VARYING EQUIPMENT AND EXPOSURES. WE THANK ALL VOLUNTEER WEATHER OBSERVERS FOR THEIR DEDICATION. NOT ALL DATA LISTED ARE CONSIDERED OFFICIAL. $$ RJC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted January 26, 2019 Share Posted January 26, 2019 Still a bit out there, but we are getting close enough to be able to dive into some specifics. I'd say there could be a couple shots to approach the all-time record low at ORD. The first coming on Wednesday morning, which is more of an advective driven cold at that point with a bitter airmass aloft and winds staying fairly elevated. Then another one potentially coming on Thursday morning after having an extremely cold starting point Wednesday evening. Overall, Wednesday night/Thursday morning certainly looks like a better radiational cooling setup than Wednesday morning, though even then it appears the winds may not completely die off especially in/around the city. Also, the airmass aloft looks like it will be warming by late Wednesday into Thursday, so not having full decoupling could be a problem. I'm still not ready to predict an all-time record low for ORD, but to me, if it happens, the better chance of it occurring is on Wednesday morning because that is when the radiational cooling component is minimized, and anybody who pays attention knows that ORD can have problems with radiating. That being said, Thursday can't be ruled out due to what was mentioned above about the extremely cold starting point. Just my 2 cents and thoughts subject to change.The top 5 coldest temps at ORD all had 15+ mph winds so I think best shot is the peak advection Wednesday morning. Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 26, 2019 Share Posted January 26, 2019 3 minutes ago, RCNYILWX said: The top 5 coldest temps at ORD all had 15+ mph winds so I think best shot is the peak advection Wednesday morning. Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk I really feel that way. Wednesday morning has the better argument for being colder at ORD whether or not it's all-time record breaking. We may have a starting point that we've rarely or never seen before on Wednesday evening so wanted to respect that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted January 26, 2019 Share Posted January 26, 2019 I really feel that way. Wednesday morning has the better argument for being colder at ORD whether or not it's all-time record breaking. We may have a starting point that we've rarely or never seen before on Wednesday evening so wanted to respect that.Since the coldest temperature of the 2000s, -18 on 1/16/09, happened on a good radiational cooling night with only about -20 to -21 at 850 mb, have to account for that possibility.Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 26, 2019 Share Posted January 26, 2019 13 minutes ago, RCNYILWX said: Since the coldest temperature of the 2000s, -18 on 1/16/09, happened on a good radiational cooling night with only about -20 to -21 at 850 mb, have to account for that possibility. Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk Getting back to Wednesday... still some model differences in timing/magnitude, but a blend would bring in the coldest temps aloft right in the diurnal min, like 5-8 am. Hope it works out like that so we can squeeze every ounce of cold out of this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 26, 2019 Share Posted January 26, 2019 Don't expect this to verify of course, but still, things you never thought you'd see on a 4 day model for $1000, Alex Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted January 26, 2019 Share Posted January 26, 2019 Don't expect this to verify of course, but still, things you never thought you'd see on a 4 day model for $1000, Alex Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 26, 2019 Share Posted January 26, 2019 11 minutes ago, RCNYILWX said: Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk 12z Euro has about -33C to -35C overhead at 850 mb from 6 am Wed through Wed afternoon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted January 26, 2019 Share Posted January 26, 2019 12z Euro has about -33C to -35C overhead at 850 mb from 6 am Wed through Wed afternoon.What's amazing is that the Euro is not quite as cold aloft as the GFS at peak magnitude but would still threaten to break the all time coldest 850 at ILX. Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 26, 2019 Share Posted January 26, 2019 .LONG TERM... 158 PM CST Tuesday through Saturday... Record breaking to perhaps historic cold outbreak still on track for mid week. Medium range models remain generally in good agreement in bringing in a period of record breaking cold, though there are some minor differences in the details in the models. For days now, the GFS and GFS-FV3 have remained on the cold end of the spectrum with 2m advertising fairly widespread -30F temps Wed morning across the northern CWA and keeping temps at or below -20 all day Wednesday. These readings don`t just break records, but in some cases shatter the all-time records. The ECMWF has been and the latest continues to be more reasonable with 2m temps but still advertises widespread temps at or below -20F Tues night/Wed AM and again Wed night/Thur AM. The ECMWF, GEM, FV3, and GFS all continue advertise all time record cold 850mb temps and 500mb heights based on the SPC sounding climo tool. These forecast values have shown some slight variability from run to run over the past several days, but the variability has mainly all been within record territory and just a matter of how much lower than records the values progged are. Given the run to run consistency and the consistency among the various medium range models and their respective ensembles, it is growing increasingly difficult to refrain from forecasting near all time record temperatures. Generally speaking, raw 2m temps from the various models outperform any MOS type products during periods of extreme temperatures. Have continued to gradually trend the forecast closer to the model consensus of 2m temps, but still stayed a bit warmer than the mean and much warmer than the coldest guidance (GFS & FV3). While remaining warmer than the mean of 2m temp guidance, we still are now officially forecasting record tying all time cold high temps Wed at both RFD and ORD. Wind chills should easily drop into the -35 to -45 range with some -50 degree wind chills possible, especially Wednesday morning. There is a bit more uncertainty with temps heading into Thursday as the latest GFS moderates temps in response to an approaching clipper. ECMWF and GEM aren`t on board with this idea, so stayed a bit more above the 2m model consensus for Thursday, but still officially below zero at RFD and Chicago. Assuming temps stay below zero Thursday, then Chicago and Rockford both could be looking at 72 continuous hours (or more) of sub-zero temps, though the second half of that cold will come with lighter winds and less extreme wind chills later Wednesday night onward. Medium range models do indicate that this extreme cold outbreak will break quickly late week with temperatures potentially rebounding back up to the freezing mark next weekend. - Izzi Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 26, 2019 Share Posted January 26, 2019 Hopefully they cancel my work. Not counting on it though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 26, 2019 Share Posted January 26, 2019 4 minutes ago, Chicago WX said: Hopefully they cancel my work. Not counting on it though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted January 26, 2019 Share Posted January 26, 2019 A rare site...south branch of the Chicago River has begun to freeze over Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted January 26, 2019 Share Posted January 26, 2019 Hit -19 early this morning here. Car temp hit -26 between here and Hillsdale on the way to work. Drove through some extremely dense ice fog. Very impressed by that -28 up at Sterling. It's an ASOS now as well, unlike back in 2008 during that cold snap when it was still an AWOS site. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 26, 2019 Share Posted January 26, 2019 Looking back at 1/20/1985 when Chicago broke their all time record, it appears that 850 mb temps were around -32C at the time that the record was broken. There was 7" of snow on the ground at ORD with plenty of snowcover upstream. In this case, 850 mb temps are progged at that level or even colder, and ORD will have deeper snowcover and again a nice snow field upstream. Based on this historical case and the current model progs, there is every reason to think that the -27 record will be approached (by approached, I mean within a couple degrees) with a real chance to tie/break. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scorpion Posted January 26, 2019 Share Posted January 26, 2019 I don’t understand how Chicago with its massive UHI can approach -27 and Milwaukee cannot? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 26, 2019 Share Posted January 26, 2019 15 minutes ago, Scorpion said: I don’t understand how Chicago with its massive UHI can approach -27 and Milwaukee cannot? Give it time... MKE might trend toward -27. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sbnwx85 Posted January 26, 2019 Share Posted January 26, 2019 I think South Bend’s all-time record of -22 will be safe but just barely. Lake Michigan will play a role in moderating the temp just enough. It helps South Bend’s airport is on the northwest side of the city, closer to the lake. Wind chills around -40 on Wednesday will still be enough to shut down the county....and perhaps still cold enough on Thursday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 27, 2019 Share Posted January 27, 2019 So keeping in mind that this situation is so rare/virtually without precedent in northern IL, I think there's a decent shot at the high not getting warmer than -15 at ORD on Wednesday. -15 would break the all-time record low max by 4 degrees. A couple things that could interfere with that. One, the airmass modifies a bit in the coming days and it just isn't able to stay that cold during the day. The other would be the dreaded midnight high. Right now, it looks like the cold comes just quickly enough to prevent the midnight high scenario but it's something to monitor. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BombsAway1288 Posted January 27, 2019 Share Posted January 27, 2019 27 minutes ago, Scorpion said: I don’t understand how Chicago with its massive UHI can approach -27 and Milwaukee cannot? Does Chicago really have that big of an UHI effect? I'm originally from Northern NJ just NNW of Central Park ASOS by about 10 miles and I used to see 15-20 degree differences sometimes. NYC has the worst UHI. When it comes to Chicago, idk for a few reasons, one being that where the arctic air is coming from (NW of Chicago usually) has nothing but pure flat land. Two, its official observing station is ORD, I think, which is NW of Chicago proper so the temps recorded there don't really reflect what it's like right on the lakefront in Downtown Chicago. UHI or not, I think you guys break many records with this upcoming cold. I'm hoping ORD and MDW set their all-time low maximum temperatures and you guys don;t get screwed with a "cheap" midnight high. Good luck!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beavis1729 Posted January 27, 2019 Share Posted January 27, 2019 Yes, ORD has significant UHI, along with all of the Chicago suburbs. An example is this morning, when ORD only hit -6 but many rural areas of northern IL were in the -10s and -20s. ORD doesn’t radiate well at all. It’s not quite as bad as NYC...but that’s not saying much... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beavis1729 Posted January 27, 2019 Share Posted January 27, 2019 27 minutes ago, Hoosier said: So keeping in mind that this situation is so rare/virtually without precedent in northern IL, I think there's a decent shot at the high not getting warmer than -15 at ORD on Wednesday. -15 would break the all-time record low max by 4 degrees. A couple things that could interfere with that. One, the airmass modifies a bit in the coming days and it just isn't able to stay that cold during the day. The other would be the dreaded midnight high. Right now, it looks like the cold comes just quickly enough to prevent the midnight high scenario but it's something to monitor. Agree with your thoughts. I think the midnight high is more of a risk. It looks fairly likely that temps will stay below -11 on Wednesday afternoon. We’ll see what the 0z runs show tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 27, 2019 Share Posted January 27, 2019 23 minutes ago, beavis1729 said: Agree with your thoughts. I think the midnight high is more of a risk. It looks fairly likely that temps will stay below -11 on Wednesday afternoon. We’ll see what the 0z runs show tonight. If there is a midnight high, I just hope it's under -11. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted January 27, 2019 Share Posted January 27, 2019 Seeing how cold it got this morning really makes me wonder what we may see with the main surge. It seemingly effortly dropped deep into the -20s which was very surprising. Granted we had perfect radiational cooling over fresh/deep/dry snow pack. Kinda makes ya wonder how cold it may get later this week if a certain area can max out their radiational cooling like what happened this morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BombsAway1288 Posted January 27, 2019 Share Posted January 27, 2019 50 minutes ago, beavis1729 said: Yes, ORD has significant UHI, along with all of the Chicago suburbs. An example is this morning, when ORD only hit -6 but many rural areas of northern IL were in the -10s and -20s. ORD doesn’t radiate well at all. It’s not quite as bad as NYC...but that’s not saying much... Wow, I didn't realize it was like that.I know there is a big difference between Rockford and Chicago when it comes to arctic blasts and UHI but I always assumed that Rockford wasn't part of the Chicago metro area (If that's what you guys even call it). I was just going off of general maps I've seen of the area. BTW speaking of Rockford, did they ever confirm that super record low back in 2014? I think it was something like -30 degrees or something like that and the NWS mets couldn't believe it so they went and checked the ASOS and I think even stayed overnight observing it or something to make sure it was calibrated properly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beavis1729 Posted January 27, 2019 Share Posted January 27, 2019 53 minutes ago, BombsAway1288 said: Wow, I didn't realize it was like that.I know there is a big difference between Rockford and Chicago when it comes to arctic blasts and UHI but I always assumed that Rockford wasn't part of the Chicago metro area (If that's what you guys even call it). I was just going off of general maps I've seen of the area. BTW speaking of Rockford, did they ever confirm that super record low back in 2014? I think it was something like -30 degrees or something like that and the NWS mets couldn't believe it so they went and checked the ASOS and I think even stayed overnight observing it or something to make sure it was calibrated properly. No, that was a different location in 2014...I think it was RPJ (Rochelle, IL). The -30 was not deemed official. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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