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January 24 - 31 Cold Blast


MNstorms

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The 06z GFS took the cake for most extreme solution for cold here. -41 at 850 at 12z Wednesday, with 500 mb heights touching 489 in far northeast IL and 1000-500 thicknesses in the 470s. We're at the point where moderation of what's being modeled will still give -30 or so at 850.

 

Noon 2m temps over northern IL on Wednesday in the low-mid -20s on the 06z GFS, just incredible stuff.

 

 

 

 

 

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57 minutes ago, RCNYILWX said:

The 06z GFS took the cake for most extreme solution for cold here. -41 at 850 at 12z Wednesday, with 500 mb heights touching 489 in far northeast IL and 1000-500 thicknesses in the 470s. We're at the point where moderation of what's being modeled will still give -30 or so at 850.

 

Noon 2m temps over northern IL on Wednesday in the low-mid -20s on the 06z GFS, just incredible stuff.

 

 

 

 

 

I've gotta think the moderation start showing up soon......please?!

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Records in play for Chicago. Note some of the data prior to 1928 may be a bit off, as I only did a quick scan of ORD/MDW official data and LOT record pages.

All-time coldest temps

-27, 1/20/1985

-26, 1/10/1982

-25, 1/16/1982

-25, 12/24/1983

-23, 1/19/1985

-22, 1/21/1984

 

All-time low max temp

-11, 12/24/1983

-11, 1/18/1994

-10, 1/25/1897

-9, 1/15/1972

 

All-time coldest daily mean temp

-18, 12/24/1983

-16, 1/18/1994

-15.5, 1/20/1985

-15, 1/10/1982

 

Coldest 2-day mean temp

-15.75, 12/23/1983 to 12/24/1983

-12.25, 1/25/1897 to 1/26/1897

-12, 1/18/1994 to 1/19/1994

-11.25, 2/2/1996 to 2/3/1996

 

Coldest 3-day mean temp

-14.2, 12/23/1983 to 12/25/1983

-9.5, 2/2/1996 to 2/4/1996

-8.5, 1/17/1994 to 1/19/1994

 

Daily records

Jan 30:  low max 3 (2004); min -15 (1966)

Jan 31:  low max 1 (1971); min -12 (1985)

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I agree that the all-time record for Chicago could be in play IF these runs are generally right about the airmass aloft.  I think it would have a better chance to happen in a setup like this, in which it's insanely cold aloft and more advective driven cold vs a warmer setup aloft that is heavily reliant on radiational cooling.  

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4 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

I agree that the all-time record for Chicago could be in play IF these runs are generally right about the airmass aloft.  I think it would have a better chance to happen in a setup like this, in which it's insanely cold aloft and more advective driven cold vs a warmer setup aloft that is heavily reliant on radiational cooling.  

Agree completely...and it will also help if the Sunday-Monday clipper adds some fresh snow cover to help offset any potential UHI effects.  Even if ORD "only" hits -20, it would be the coldest since January 1994 (Feb 1996 hit -19 at ORD, I believe).

12z GFS continues the insanity...only 6 days out now:

gfs_T850a_us_25.png

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Just now, beavis1729 said:

Agree completely...although that's a big IF...and it will also help if the Sunday-Monday clipper adds some fresh snow cover.

12z GFS continues the insanity...only 6 days out now:

gfs_T850a_us_25.png

For sure, and right now the clipper is looking good.

Will be very interesting to watch this unfold.  I consider coldest temp, hottest temp and biggest snowstorm for a given location as sort of the holy trinity of weather records. 

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1 hour ago, Jim Martin said:

Looking like the North Pole could pay a visit to #NWOhioWx by this time next week.

 

The 12z GFS has -26 for Bowling Green and about -24 for Toledo Express Airport. Both of these are colder than the all-time record lows: -22 at Bowling Green and -20 at Toledo.

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I have trouble with wunderground these days so maybe somebody can check, but didn't the -27 at Chicago on 1/20/85 occur at like 9 am?  So it doesn't necessarily have to be a nighttime min temp if you bring the coldest pool of air overhead during a different time of day.

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1 hour ago, HillsdaleMIWeather said:

IWXs AFD on this is beautiful,  the perfect mix of warning and geeking out 

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Wednesday)
Issued at 236 PM EST Thu Jan 24 2019

...Winter storm and pipe freezing cold on the way...

Track of potent upstream amplifying wave late Sun predicated on how
quickly deep low south of James Bay ejects out ahead of sewd peeling
PV dropping through cntrl Canada. Regardless of specific solution
track, intense warm advection wing expected to emanate ese of
deepening cyclone as leading strong moisture push off the Gomex hits
eroding swrn flank of arctic wedge. 12Z deterministic consensus
shifted south again and holds retreating arctic wedge in longer yet
still some threat exists for a mix far s/se. Wrn OH valley sourced
pivot point would portent a prolonged duration of snow as
deformation zone overlaps leading warm advection zone and likely
hefty snow amounts given sharp baroclinic zone in place.
Nevertheless strong flow inadvance and behind this system promise a
mess with the addition of considerable blowing/drifting snow.

Thereafter a brutishly cold airmass entrenched through nrn Canada
will blast south commensurate with PV swing through Michigan. Many
long standing records will no doubt fall and threaten all-time cold
records as raw 2m guidance sits in unseen territory across the nrn
OH valley.
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14 minutes ago, Chicago Storm said:

HRRR has mid -10's for lows at ORD tonight and tomorrow night.

Not records, but could rival the extreme cold of January 2014. Lowest during that period was -16 at ORD.

Yeah, this cold front seems to be packing more of a punch than originally thought. 

DVN just issued a Wind Chill Warning.


 
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