snowstormcanuck Posted January 24, 2019 Share Posted January 24, 2019 5 hours ago, hawkeye_wx said: 00z euro - thursday morning... of course, we'll have to score with the clipper to have a chance at this. I love how this demonstrates so vividly the Great Lakes' ability to modify arctic air. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted January 24, 2019 Share Posted January 24, 2019 The 06z GFS took the cake for most extreme solution for cold here. -41 at 850 at 12z Wednesday, with 500 mb heights touching 489 in far northeast IL and 1000-500 thicknesses in the 470s. We're at the point where moderation of what's being modeled will still give -30 or so at 850. Noon 2m temps over northern IL on Wednesday in the low-mid -20s on the 06z GFS, just incredible stuff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MNstorms Posted January 24, 2019 Author Share Posted January 24, 2019 First Wind Chill Advisory of the season for me. Wind chill of -35F tonight. It'll be nothing compared to next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaveNay Posted January 24, 2019 Share Posted January 24, 2019 57 minutes ago, RCNYILWX said: The 06z GFS took the cake for most extreme solution for cold here. -41 at 850 at 12z Wednesday, with 500 mb heights touching 489 in far northeast IL and 1000-500 thicknesses in the 470s. We're at the point where moderation of what's being modeled will still give -30 or so at 850. Noon 2m temps over northern IL on Wednesday in the low-mid -20s on the 06z GFS, just incredible stuff. I've gotta think the moderation start showing up soon......please?! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beavis1729 Posted January 24, 2019 Share Posted January 24, 2019 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beavis1729 Posted January 24, 2019 Share Posted January 24, 2019 Records in play for Chicago. Note some of the data prior to 1928 may be a bit off, as I only did a quick scan of ORD/MDW official data and LOT record pages. All-time coldest temps -27, 1/20/1985 -26, 1/10/1982 -25, 1/16/1982 -25, 12/24/1983 -23, 1/19/1985 -22, 1/21/1984 All-time low max temp -11, 12/24/1983 -11, 1/18/1994 -10, 1/25/1897 -9, 1/15/1972 All-time coldest daily mean temp -18, 12/24/1983 -16, 1/18/1994 -15.5, 1/20/1985 -15, 1/10/1982 Coldest 2-day mean temp -15.75, 12/23/1983 to 12/24/1983 -12.25, 1/25/1897 to 1/26/1897 -12, 1/18/1994 to 1/19/1994 -11.25, 2/2/1996 to 2/3/1996 Coldest 3-day mean temp -14.2, 12/23/1983 to 12/25/1983 -9.5, 2/2/1996 to 2/4/1996 -8.5, 1/17/1994 to 1/19/1994 Daily records Jan 30: low max 3 (2004); min -15 (1966) Jan 31: low max 1 (1971); min -12 (1985) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chambana Posted January 24, 2019 Share Posted January 24, 2019 GFS windchill output has windchills approaching -70 in western Minnesota next week. -55 around Chicago. This definitely has the potential to exceed January 2014. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sciascia Posted January 24, 2019 Share Posted January 24, 2019 GFS showing -34 in Chicago on Thursday. -34 AIR TEMPERATURE. Holy balls. Might have to seriously consider just staying home that day from work if it verifies. Idk how stores would be able to even justify opening when it’s life-threatening cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoalCityWxMan Posted January 24, 2019 Share Posted January 24, 2019 Just when you thought the GFS couldn’t get worse Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MNstorms Posted January 24, 2019 Author Share Posted January 24, 2019 Where the cold air is coming from. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jim Martin Posted January 24, 2019 Share Posted January 24, 2019 Looking like the North Pole could pay a visit to #NWOhioWx by this time next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 24, 2019 Share Posted January 24, 2019 I agree that the all-time record for Chicago could be in play IF these runs are generally right about the airmass aloft. I think it would have a better chance to happen in a setup like this, in which it's insanely cold aloft and more advective driven cold vs a warmer setup aloft that is heavily reliant on radiational cooling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beavis1729 Posted January 24, 2019 Share Posted January 24, 2019 4 minutes ago, Hoosier said: I agree that the all-time record for Chicago could be in play IF these runs are generally right about the airmass aloft. I think it would have a better chance to happen in a setup like this, in which it's insanely cold aloft and more advective driven cold vs a warmer setup aloft that is heavily reliant on radiational cooling. Agree completely...and it will also help if the Sunday-Monday clipper adds some fresh snow cover to help offset any potential UHI effects. Even if ORD "only" hits -20, it would be the coldest since January 1994 (Feb 1996 hit -19 at ORD, I believe). 12z GFS continues the insanity...only 6 days out now: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 24, 2019 Share Posted January 24, 2019 Just now, beavis1729 said: Agree completely...although that's a big IF...and it will also help if the Sunday-Monday clipper adds some fresh snow cover. 12z GFS continues the insanity...only 6 days out now: For sure, and right now the clipper is looking good. Will be very interesting to watch this unfold. I consider coldest temp, hottest temp and biggest snowstorm for a given location as sort of the holy trinity of weather records. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted January 24, 2019 Share Posted January 24, 2019 1 hour ago, Jim Martin said: Looking like the North Pole could pay a visit to #NWOhioWx by this time next week. The 12z GFS has -26 for Bowling Green and about -24 for Toledo Express Airport. Both of these are colder than the all-time record lows: -22 at Bowling Green and -20 at Toledo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted January 24, 2019 Share Posted January 24, 2019 First call -28 coldest at ORD during the period. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jim Martin Posted January 24, 2019 Share Posted January 24, 2019 12z Euro not backing off one iota from the brutal cold for next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted January 24, 2019 Share Posted January 24, 2019 First call -28 coldest at ORD during the period.Bold.Sent from my SM-G960U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 24, 2019 Share Posted January 24, 2019 I have trouble with wunderground these days so maybe somebody can check, but didn't the -27 at Chicago on 1/20/85 occur at like 9 am? So it doesn't necessarily have to be a nighttime min temp if you bring the coldest pool of air overhead during a different time of day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted January 24, 2019 Share Posted January 24, 2019 @judah47: Is it too soon to begin chants of "Chiberia?" That is just a crazy week of weather predicted for #Chicago next week. I think it is safe to say #WinterIsComing to Chicago. https://twitter.com/judah47/status/1088511705510961152/photo/1Sent from my SM-G960U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beavis1729 Posted January 24, 2019 Share Posted January 24, 2019 6AM Jan 25: 6 AM Jan 30: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted January 24, 2019 Share Posted January 24, 2019 IWXs AFD on this is beautiful, the perfect mix of warning and geeking out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheRegionRat Posted January 24, 2019 Share Posted January 24, 2019 A general question here. Based on what the models indicate, what's the most moderation we can see? Would it be incredibly surprising if Chicago has a temperature above zero next Wednesday and Thursday? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted January 24, 2019 Share Posted January 24, 2019 A general question here. Based on what the models indicate, what's the most moderation we can see? Would it be incredibly surprising if Chicago has a temperature above zero next Wednesday and Thursday?No.Sent from my SM-G960U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted January 24, 2019 Share Posted January 24, 2019 HRRR has mid -10's for lows at ORD tonight and tomorrow night. Not records, but could rival the extreme cold of January 2014. Lowest during that period was -16 at ORD. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beavis1729 Posted January 24, 2019 Share Posted January 24, 2019 1 hour ago, HillsdaleMIWeather said: IWXs AFD on this is beautiful, the perfect mix of warning and geeking out .LONG TERM...(Saturday through Wednesday) Issued at 236 PM EST Thu Jan 24 2019 ...Winter storm and pipe freezing cold on the way... Track of potent upstream amplifying wave late Sun predicated on how quickly deep low south of James Bay ejects out ahead of sewd peeling PV dropping through cntrl Canada. Regardless of specific solution track, intense warm advection wing expected to emanate ese of deepening cyclone as leading strong moisture push off the Gomex hits eroding swrn flank of arctic wedge. 12Z deterministic consensus shifted south again and holds retreating arctic wedge in longer yet still some threat exists for a mix far s/se. Wrn OH valley sourced pivot point would portent a prolonged duration of snow as deformation zone overlaps leading warm advection zone and likely hefty snow amounts given sharp baroclinic zone in place. Nevertheless strong flow inadvance and behind this system promise a mess with the addition of considerable blowing/drifting snow. Thereafter a brutishly cold airmass entrenched through nrn Canada will blast south commensurate with PV swing through Michigan. Many long standing records will no doubt fall and threaten all-time cold records as raw 2m guidance sits in unseen territory across the nrn OH valley. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beavis1729 Posted January 24, 2019 Share Posted January 24, 2019 14 minutes ago, Chicago Storm said: HRRR has mid -10's for lows at ORD tonight and tomorrow night. Not records, but could rival the extreme cold of January 2014. Lowest during that period was -16 at ORD. Yeah, this cold front seems to be packing more of a punch than originally thought. DVN just issued a Wind Chill Warning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted January 24, 2019 Share Posted January 24, 2019 Just now, Angrysummons said: HRRR has a cold bias that would make the GFS blush. It actually does very well around here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted January 24, 2019 Share Posted January 24, 2019 8 minutes ago, Angrysummons said: ok..........whatever floats your boat. He is right though, HRRR does fairly well, the cold bias is pretty minimal at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chambana Posted January 24, 2019 Share Posted January 24, 2019 I really need the clipper on Monday to materialize if we want to maximize the potential of this possible historic cold wave. Yesterday’s heavy rainfall and temps of 39 degrees put a huge dent in our snowpack, in fact a lot of places have 1” or less on the ground. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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