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January 24 - 31 Cold Blast


MNstorms

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Just now, Chicago Storm said:

ORD is DOA for the record... Might not even exceed the low from last night (-23) at this rate.

As for further west, there has been a real struggle to keep winds calm. Sites such as SQI/RPJ/ARR go calm and temps drop, then winds pick back up and the temp rises. The issue will likely continue for a while longer, before the ridge pushes in more towards morning. It's pretty clear that will be too late now though, so the state record is safe and it might be hard to find many sites that get below -30.

Was wondering earlier if the depth of calmness would have an impact.  Was looking at the DVN sounding from this past Sat when we really maxed out on ideal radiational cooling.  Winds were pretty still from the surface up to just under 925mb.  At 925mb the wind was only at 10kts.  Tonight the progged 925mb winds stay up a bit until just after 12z, when they drop below 15kts along the departing ridge axis.  Not sure if that's going to be an issue or not, but just something I've noticed.

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Made a late rally here, dropped to -27. And I wouldn’t call MBY a great radiator. Decent at best.

ORD was kind of caught between a rock and a hard place. Too much west wind, and there was no colder air to advect in, given that the background airmass was warming significantly. Yeah, it would have been helpful for them to radiate for longer...but the winds did die down at many nearby areas at least for a little while, with a corresponding temp drop. So why not at ORD? It’s really hard to physically explain how ORD only managed -21, especially with the great starting point of -14 at 6 pm yesterday...one of the coldest temps in the area at that time. If you would have asked me at 6 pm last night, I would have said 50% chance of hitting -28, 90% chance of -25, 99% chance of -23. 

What it tells me is that ORD is an even worse radiator than we thought. Would it have really mattered if winds were calmer most of the night? I guess we will never know. Places in northern WI that warmed up to near 0 yesterday afternoon still fell to -30 this morning.

Nice to see new all time record lows at MLI and RFD. 

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