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January 24 - 31 Cold Blast


MNstorms
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Just now, josh_4184 said:

I was pretty surprised to see that as well, my geothermal system I installed this past fall sure has been paying for itself in spades so far this past month. 

In Sept 2012, I installed a new high efficiency propane furnace to replace the 50 year old 50% efficient oil burner. My fuel savings in the next two winters paid for the entire furnace replacement cost.

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-17 at ORD
-30 there is out of the question.  Getting to the record is iffy.  Probably a photo finish if it happens.
If it can get to -19 or even better -20 by 06z, it *may* be doable. I'll stick with what I forecast what I did the grids yesterday, -26, though wouldnt be surprised at anywhere from -23 to -25.

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ORD could use a 10 to 15 mph wind to negate the urban heat island. This is why they are going flat-line. I'm only going by what I see on maps but ORD is nowhere near the urban-rural boundary and MLI is probably an essentially rural site. Even so, ORD will probably drop about five degrees later on, urban heat islands still radiate heat to space, they just don't do it as efficiently as non-urban settings. 

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4 minutes ago, Roger Smith said:

ORD could use a 10 to 15 mph wind to negate the urban heat island. This is why they are going flat-line. I'm only going by what I see on maps but ORD is nowhere near the urban-rural boundary and MLI is probably an essentially rural site. Even so, ORD will probably drop about five degrees later on, urban heat islands still radiate heat to space, they just don't do it as efficiently as non-urban settings. 

The opposite actually needs to happen. Winds need to die off, and faster than they are. 

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13 minutes ago, Chicago Storm said:

The opposite actually needs to happen. Winds need to die off, and faster than they are. 

Yep.  ORD has had an 8-15 mph wind all night and it's not doing any good.  The airmass is gradually warming aloft so you don't want to be mixing the low levels anywhere on a night like this, rural or urban.  If it were a CAA setup like last night, different story.  There's a reason the coldest Chicago temps tend not to happen on nights so dependent on radiational cooling like this one.  The reason this one has/had a chance is because it was an extraordinary -14 heading into the evening.

I know you know all this.  Just sayin.

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Then why do studies show that magnitude of urban heat island is inversely proportional to wind speed? Last night illustrated that. My belief is, if the urban stations went calm, the differential would stay large. Maybe it's a trade-off, a calm wind at this point would encourage radiational cooling within the urban heat island, but at the same time, no frigid rural air could flow in (as was the case last night). 

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1 minute ago, Roger Smith said:

Then why do studies show that magnitude of urban heat island is inversely proportional to wind speed? Last night illustrated that. My belief is, if the urban stations went calm, the differential would stay large. Maybe it's a trade-off, a calm wind at this point would encourage radiational cooling within the urban heat island, but at the same time, no frigid rural air could flow in (as was the case last night). 

Roger, temps are slowly moderating aloft.  The rural stations were struggling (a bit) to drop too until the winds went calm at some of them.

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12 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

MLI hit -29 earlier, so new all time record for them. 

Yeah was just gonna mention that.  Nice to see after the disappointing daytime ascension earlier.  

Temp hit -21 an hour or so ago here, but has bumped back up to -19.  I think all the homes leaking warm air here in this residential setting tempers the extreme cold some.  I'm guessing just outside of town it's significantly colder.  

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ORD is DOA for the record... Might not even exceed the low from last night (-23) at this rate.

As for further west, there has been a real struggle to keep winds calm. Sites such as SQI/RPJ/ARR go calm and temps drop, then winds pick back up and the temp rises. The issue will likely continue for a while longer, before the ridge pushes in more towards morning. It's pretty clear that will be too late now though, so the state record is safe and it might be hard to find many sites that get below -30.

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