HillsdaleMIWeather Posted January 29, 2019 Share Posted January 29, 2019 IWX updated the WCW, now mentions chills down to 55 below zero 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 29, 2019 Share Posted January 29, 2019 12z Euro at 12 pm central Wednesday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted January 29, 2019 Share Posted January 29, 2019 29 minutes ago, DaveNay said: NAM model trend seems to want to back off ever so slightly for 12z Thursday. toasty Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beavis1729 Posted January 29, 2019 Share Posted January 29, 2019 Wow at the Euro. If some of the low-lying locations in IL (Rochelle, Aurora, Sterling) can max out at only -15 on Wednesday afternoon and then clear out Wed night, I imagine the state record low of -36 is in jeopardy. Still to early to pin down these details...but it's certainly possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted January 29, 2019 Share Posted January 29, 2019 Absolutely incredible that this looks to be the “real deal”. I figured we would see models begin to moderate as we got closer, but they have held tight or doubled down (FV3). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 29, 2019 Share Posted January 29, 2019 2 minutes ago, beavis1729 said: Wow at the Euro. If some of the low-lying locations in IL (Rochelle, Aurora, Sterling) can max out at only -15 on Wednesday afternoon and then clear out Wed night, I imagine the state record low of -36 is in jeopardy. Still to early to pin down these details...but it's certainly possible. Yeah, real shot at one of the typical cold spots. That run even has ORD flirting with -30. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Doctor Posted January 29, 2019 Share Posted January 29, 2019 I've seen -36F thrown around a lot as the record coldest in Illinois. Is the -37 in Rochelle in 2009 not counted? Sorry I'm not familiar with how records are determined/validated. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fluoronium Posted January 29, 2019 Share Posted January 29, 2019 47 minutes ago, The_Doctor said: I've seen -36F thrown around a lot as the record coldest in Illinois. Is the -37 in Rochelle in 2009 not counted? Sorry I'm not familiar with how records are determined/validated. The -36ºF at Congerville is considered the official record. From the IL State Climatologist Website: Quote The lowest temperature reported in Illinois was -36°F in Congerville on January 5, 1999. It is important to note that some sources, including Wikipedia, have list -37°F in Rochelle on January 15, 2009 as the lowest temperature in Illinois. However, that observation came from a small airport station designed for aviation purposes and was not part of the climate network in Illinois. As a result, the data were not always archived and no quality control procedures were applied to the data. In fact, sites in that network (Automated Weather Observing System or AWOS) do not record the minimum temperature, only the temperature every 20 minutes. In addition, temperatures below -30°F were very close to the design limits of the equipment. An examination of the site, the available 20-minute data (before, during, and afterwards), and the equipment, along with the consideration of the meteorological factors of that morning, raised questions about the validity of the one data point. As a result, it was never officially recognized as the state record. https://www.isws.illinois.edu/statecli/General/averages.htm 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaveNay Posted January 29, 2019 Share Posted January 29, 2019 6 minutes ago, fluoronium said: The -36ºF at Congerville is considered the official record. From the IL State Climatologist Website: https://www.isws.illinois.edu/statecli/General/averages.htm I lived in Malta, IL back then (11 miles from the Rochelle airport).....it was (*^%@&#*(&! COLD that night!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beavis1729 Posted January 29, 2019 Share Posted January 29, 2019 Crookston, MN is -26 with a WC of -62...at 2:00 PM local time! That is just shocking beyond belief. May be ice fog too, considering the 1/4 mile visibility. CROOKSTON CLOUDY -26 -33 68 N32 30.24S VSB 1/4 WCI -62 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 29, 2019 Share Posted January 29, 2019 LOT lowered forecast temps a bit. They now have -26 at ORD tomorrow night, -32 at Rockford, and a number of counties in the -30s. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jim Martin Posted January 29, 2019 Share Posted January 29, 2019 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted January 29, 2019 Share Posted January 29, 2019 21 minutes ago, Hoosier said: LOT lowered forecast temps a bit. They now have -26 at ORD tomorrow night, -32 at Rockford, and a number of counties in the -30s. My p&c has a forecasted high of -22 tomorrow.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jackstraw Posted January 29, 2019 Share Posted January 29, 2019 End one work week at 20-30 below start the next work week at 50 to 60 above. You'd think there'd be some kind of storm mixed in there somewhere lol. freakin' nuts 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CheeselandSkies Posted January 29, 2019 Share Posted January 29, 2019 Didn't feel *that* bad out going to work this morning and coming home, at least no worse than previous significant Arctic outbreaks in my memory such as early January, 2014. However, the next 48-60 hours is when the bottom falls out with a forecast low of -27 tonight, high of -12 tomorrow with wind chills -45 to -55, and then down to -32 Wednesday night. I am really NOT looking forward to leaving for work the next two nights/mornings (3 AM start time) and nervous about whether my car will start. I *WILL* be breaking out the long underwear. Then there is the total mind screw of a high of 37 forecast for Saturday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 29, 2019 Share Posted January 29, 2019 Ricky's afd Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Chicago/Romeoville, IL 325 PM CST Tue Jan 29 2019 .SHORT TERM... 325 PM CST Through Wednesday... The much advertised record to near record cold blast is on our doorstep this afternoon. First order of business are the scattered snow showers and blowing snow that are causing impacts in some areas, especially on north-south roads in open areas. Most significantly, DuPage Airport has been reporting 3/4 mile or less visibility since just prior to 1pm and 1/4 mile visibility in heavy snow as of the 2pm hour. Thus the message remains the same, a combo of any falling snow and blowing snow with winds sustained 20-30 mph gusting up to 30-35 mph and briefly 40 mph at times will cause temporary sharply reduced visibility and possibly even brief near blizzard conditions. With the narrow character of these snow shower streamers on radar, also expect to encounter rapidly changing visibility and road conditions. Forecast soundings indicate that the setup will be less favorable for occasional moderate-heavy snow rates in these snow showers this evening and probably lower coverage as well, but did maintain snow shower mention. Blowing snow will continue to be an issue, especially in open areas. Wind chills in the -10 to -20 range as of this writing will fall to solidly 20 to 30 below during the evening commute and 30 to 40 below by the late evening as temperatures quickly fall to below zero area wide and a rapid fall commences during the evening. The core of the coldest air mass will advect over the area after midnight into Wednesday morning, bottoming out in the mid to possibly mid minus 30s Celsius (possibly minus upper 30s) at 850 mb. For reference, the coldest ever observed 850 mb temperature at ILX/PIA/RAN RAOB site is -32.9C on 1/10/1982. This will be true direct Arctic discharge as a lobe of the tropospheric polar vortex clips the region, a hallmark of past historic Arctic outbreaks. The arrival of coldest air mass will likely be marked by a bit of an uptick in the gusty winds overnight, with gusts back up to the 30-35 mph range until or just before daybreak. The low level cold air advection will continue through mid-day Wednesday, thus minimum air temperatures should be reached from 7-9am. With this being an advection cold, am now forecasting the entire CWA to be 20 below or colder, including downtown Chicago. Lowest temps will be about 27 to 28 below, so Rockford certainly has a chance to tie or break its coldest all-time temperature tomorrow morning and it may be close at ORD. Wednesday morning will have the most dangerous/life-threatening wind chills at 50 to 60 below for most of the area due to sustained winds 15-25 mph gusting to 30-35 mph. If you have the option to stay indoors tomorrow, you are urged to strongly consider it, considering the brutal cold and likelihood of at least patchy blowing snow. Have adjusted forecast "high" temps Wednesday afternoon down slightly from already astounding levels to now all areas staying at 10 below or colder and some locations in interior northern IL west of Fox Valley possibly not getting above 20 below. Assuming Chicago-O`Hare is colder than -11 at midnight tonight, which appears likely, then the new coldest high temperature on record appears extremely likely on Wednesday. Have even higher confidence in Rockford setting the new record cold high temp. With air temps in the teens below zero through the afternoon, afternoon wind chills will remain dangerous in the -35 to -45 range even with gradually diminishing westerly winds. For the grand finale of this possibly unprecedented Arctic blast, Wednesday night into Thursday morning appears primed to set records. Models continue to settle on very favorable position of 1035 mb surface ridge axis for strong decoupling over the deep snow pack, along with indication to this point that any high clouds will remain at bay until "the damage has been done" with temps. Suspect that most guidance is too strong with winds, so lowered speeds to below lowest MOS or bias corrected guidance, and wouldn`t be surprised if outlying locations go calm at times. Only possible fly in the ointment would be these above factors trending less favorable, but at this time do not see that occurring. The models have not backed off and in some cases, such as ECMWF, have incredibly trended slightly colder for Thursday morning lows. With the teens below zero starting point, see no reason why favored outlying locations in northern Illinois won`t reach or exceed the state low temperature record (-36F in Congerville on 1/5/1999), thus have continued to forecast as such at locations like KRPJ and KARR and surrounding areas. Would not be surprised if we have some places bottom out at -40F. If RFD does not set new all time record cold temperature Wednesday morning, it appears likely to shatter the record Thursday morning (our official forecast is now -32). There will be more of a urban "heat" island gradient from Chicago to the suburbs as cold will be purely radiational driven. Chicago still expected to have another night/morning of the entire city -20 or colder, and ORD will be very close to the -27 record from 1985. Eye opening that the 12z ECMWF is indicating -30 there and many ensemble members are close to the record. Finally, have added patchy fog mention to the grids outside of Chicago, with the thinking being that rare ice fog formation is possible with the Arctic temps and light winds. Clouds will increase of Thursday afternoon`s clipper, with a better recovery in temps but still locations I-80 and north outside of downtown Chicago may not reach 0 degrees. Castro 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CheeselandSkies Posted January 29, 2019 Share Posted January 29, 2019 20 minutes ago, Jackstraw said: End one work week at 20-30 below start the next work week at 50 to 60 above. You'd think there'd be some kind of storm mixed in there somewhere lol. freakin' nuts Yeah what is up with these insane temperature swings without epic blizzards and or/tornado outbreaks? Temperature extremes and excessive rainfall seem to be the only types of extreme weather we can get to verify in these parts this decade. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
King James Posted January 29, 2019 Share Posted January 29, 2019 Ricky's afdArea Forecast DiscussionNational Weather Service Chicago/Romeoville, IL325 PM CST Tue Jan 29 2019.SHORT TERM...325 PM CSTThrough Wednesday...The much advertised record to near record cold blast is on ourdoorstep this afternoon. First order of business are the scatteredsnow showers and blowing snow that are causing impacts in someareas, especially on north-south roads in open areas. Mostsignificantly, DuPage Airport has been reporting 3/4 mile or lessvisibility since just prior to 1pm and 1/4 mile visibility inheavy snow as of the 2pm hour. Thus the message remains the same,a combo of any falling snow and blowing snow with winds sustained20-30 mph gusting up to 30-35 mph and briefly 40 mph at times willcause temporary sharply reduced visibility and possibly evenbrief near blizzard conditions. With the narrow character of thesesnow shower streamers on radar, also expect to encounter rapidlychanging visibility and road conditions. Forecast soundingsindicate that the setup will be less favorable for occasionalmoderate-heavy snow rates in these snow showers this evening andprobably lower coverage as well, but did maintain snow showermention. Blowing snow will continue to be an issue, especially inopen areas.Wind chills in the -10 to -20 range as of this writing will fallto solidly 20 to 30 below during the evening commute and 30 to 40below by the late evening as temperatures quickly fall to belowzero area wide and a rapid fall commences during the evening. Thecore of the coldest air mass will advect over the area aftermidnight into Wednesday morning, bottoming out in the mid topossibly mid minus 30s Celsius (possibly minus upper 30s) at 850mb. For reference, the coldest ever observed 850 mb temperature atILX/PIA/RAN RAOB site is -32.9C on 1/10/1982. This will be truedirect Arctic discharge as a lobe of the tropospheric polar vortexclips the region, a hallmark of past historic Arctic outbreaks.The arrival of coldest air mass will likely be marked by a bit ofan uptick in the gusty winds overnight, with gusts back up to the30-35 mph range until or just before daybreak.The low level cold air advection will continue through mid-dayWednesday, thus minimum air temperatures should be reached from7-9am. With this being an advection cold, am now forecasting theentire CWA to be 20 below or colder, including downtown Chicago.Lowest temps will be about 27 to 28 below, so Rockford certainlyhas a chance to tie or break its coldest all-time temperaturetomorrow morning and it may be close at ORD. Wednesday morningwill have the most dangerous/life-threatening wind chills at 50 to60 below for most of the area due to sustained winds 15-25 mphgusting to 30-35 mph. If you have the option to stay indoorstomorrow, you are urged to strongly consider it, considering thebrutal cold and likelihood of at least patchy blowing snow. Haveadjusted forecast "high" temps Wednesday afternoon down slightlyfrom already astounding levels to now all areas staying at 10below or colder and some locations in interior northern IL west ofFox Valley possibly not getting above 20 below. AssumingChicago-O`Hare is colder than -11 at midnight tonight, whichappears likely, then the new coldest high temperature on recordappears extremely likely on Wednesday. Have even higher confidencein Rockford setting the new record cold high temp.With air temps in the teens below zero through the afternoon,afternoon wind chills will remain dangerous in the -35 to -45range even with gradually diminishing westerly winds. For thegrand finale of this possibly unprecedented Arctic blast,Wednesday night into Thursday morning appears primed to setrecords. Models continue to settle on very favorable position of1035 mb surface ridge axis for strong decoupling over the deepsnow pack, along with indication to this point that any highclouds will remain at bay until "the damage has been done" withtemps. Suspect that most guidance is too strong with winds, solowered speeds to below lowest MOS or bias corrected guidance, andwouldn`t be surprised if outlying locations go calm at times. Onlypossible fly in the ointment would be these above factorstrending less favorable, but at this time do not see thatoccurring. The models have not backed off and in some cases, suchas ECMWF, have incredibly trended slightly colder for Thursdaymorning lows.With the teens below zero starting point, see no reason whyfavored outlying locations in northern Illinois won`t reach orexceed the state low temperature record (-36F in Congerville on1/5/1999), thus have continued to forecast as such at locationslike KRPJ and KARR and surrounding areas. Would not be surprisedif we have some places bottom out at -40F. If RFD does not setnew all time record cold temperature Wednesday morning, it appearslikely to shatter the record Thursday morning (our officialforecast is now -32). There will be more of a urban "heat" islandgradient from Chicago to the suburbs as cold will be purelyradiational driven. Chicago still expected to have anothernight/morning of the entire city -20 or colder, and ORD will bevery close to the -27 record from 1985. Eye opening that the 12zECMWF is indicating -30 there and many ensemble members are closeto the record. Finally, have added patchy fog mention to the gridsoutside of Chicago, with the thinking being that rare ice fogformation is possible with the Arctic temps and light winds.Clouds will increase of Thursday afternoon`s clipper, with abetter recovery in temps but still locations I-80 and northoutside of downtown Chicago may not reach 0 degrees.CastroGreat read. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OrdIowPitMsp Posted January 29, 2019 Share Posted January 29, 2019 Quote KMSP 292153Z 31022G31KT 10SM OVC037 M26/M32 A3006 RMK AO2 PK WND 28033/2138 SLP206 DRSN T12611322 -15F winds of 25 gusting to 36 with a windchill of -44F and we have another hour of daylight! Stepped outside to run some errands and the wind just absolutely obliterates any exposed skin. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Knightking2018 Posted January 29, 2019 Share Posted January 29, 2019 28 minutes ago, OrdIowPitMsp said: -15F winds of 25 gusting to 36 with a windchill of -44F and we have another hour of daylight! Stepped outside to run some errands and the wind just absolutely obliterates any exposed skin. It feels like your exposed flesh is being peeled off or stung at those types of wind chills. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted January 29, 2019 Share Posted January 29, 2019 Already seeing widespread school and business closings for tomorrow and Thursday. Probably going to be the biggest combo of closings in a very long time. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted January 29, 2019 Share Posted January 29, 2019 And there it is... RAP the first showing -40's in the region. -41 near SQI 12z Thur morning and -32 ORD, with temps still dropping. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Knightking2018 Posted January 29, 2019 Share Posted January 29, 2019 The weather channel is forecasting a wind chill of -52F for Lake Zurich, Illinois. This will probably be one of the coldest days you ever felt Mr. Beavis. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OrdIowPitMsp Posted January 29, 2019 Share Posted January 29, 2019 Hourly Obs at MSP at -17 now. Sun about to set and then we make our run for -30! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaveNay Posted January 29, 2019 Share Posted January 29, 2019 Just now, Angrysummons said: add 10 degrees for reality. already busting too low. Add or subtract? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 29, 2019 Share Posted January 29, 2019 6 minutes ago, Chicago Storm said: And there it is... RAP the first showing -40's in the region. -41 near SQI 12z Thur morning and -32 ORD, with temps still dropping. RC mentioned about the 5 coldest temps for Chicago occurring in advective regimes. This certainly appears like it will be an exception with the question being just how cold it will get. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted January 29, 2019 Share Posted January 29, 2019 22 minutes ago, Chicago Storm said: Already seeing widespread school and business closings for tomorrow and Thursday. Probably going to be the biggest combo of closings in a very long time. Same here, they are even closing a outdoor mall locally tomorrow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted January 29, 2019 Share Posted January 29, 2019 18 minutes ago, Chicago Storm said: And there it is... RAP the first showing -40's in the region. -41 near SQI 12z Thur morning and -32 ORD, with temps still dropping. I'm definitely saving that one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beavis1729 Posted January 29, 2019 Share Posted January 29, 2019 17 minutes ago, Knightking2018 said: The weather channel is forecasting a wind chill of -52F for Lake Zurich, Illinois. This will probably be one of the coldest days you ever felt Mr. Beavis. Yep...coldest I have felt was -45 on 1/6/2014, I think we will easily beat this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wishforsnow Posted January 29, 2019 Share Posted January 29, 2019 Michigan Tech is closed tomorrow. They very rarely close. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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