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January 24 - 31 Cold Blast

MNstorms

By MNstorms,
in Lakes/Ohio Valley

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Hoosier

Hoosier

Posted
Posted
2 minutes ago, beavis1729 said:

Wow at the Euro.  If some of the low-lying locations in IL (Rochelle, Aurora, Sterling) can max out at only -15 on Wednesday afternoon and then clear out Wed night, I imagine the state record low of -36 is in jeopardy.  Still to early to pin down these details...but it's certainly possible. 

Yeah, real shot at one of the typical cold spots.  That run even has ORD flirting with -30.

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fluoronium

fluoronium

Posted
Posted
47 minutes ago, The_Doctor said:

I've seen -36F thrown around a lot as the record coldest in Illinois. Is the -37 in Rochelle in 2009 not counted? Sorry I'm not familiar with how records are determined/validated.

The -36ºF at Congerville is considered the official record. From the IL State Climatologist Website:
 

Quote

The lowest temperature reported in Illinois was -36°F in Congerville on January 5, 1999.

It is important to note that some sources, including Wikipedia, have list -37°F in Rochelle on January 15, 2009 as the lowest temperature in Illinois. However, that observation came from a small airport station designed for aviation purposes and was not part of the climate network in Illinois. As a result, the data were not always archived and no quality control procedures were applied to the data. In fact, sites in that network (Automated Weather Observing System or AWOS) do not record the minimum temperature, only the temperature every 20 minutes. In addition, temperatures below -30°F were very close to the design limits of the equipment. An examination of the site, the available 20-minute data (before, during, and afterwards), and the equipment, along with the consideration of the meteorological factors of that morning, raised questions about the validity of the one data point. As a result, it was never officially recognized as the state record.

https://www.isws.illinois.edu/statecli/General/averages.htm

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CheeselandSkies

CheeselandSkies

Posted
Posted

Didn't feel *that* bad out going to work this morning and coming home, at least no worse than previous significant Arctic outbreaks in my memory such as early January, 2014. However, the next 48-60 hours is when the bottom falls out with a forecast low of -27 tonight, high of -12 tomorrow with wind chills -45 to -55, and then down to -32 Wednesday night. I am really NOT looking forward to leaving for work the next two nights/mornings (3 AM start time) and nervous about whether my car will start. I *WILL* be breaking out the long underwear.

Then there is the total mind screw of a high of 37 forecast for Saturday.

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Hoosier

Hoosier

Posted
Posted

Ricky's afd 

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Chicago/Romeoville, IL
325 PM CST Tue Jan 29 2019

.SHORT TERM...
325 PM CST

Through Wednesday...

The much advertised record to near record cold blast is on our
doorstep this afternoon. First order of business are the scattered
snow showers and blowing snow that are causing impacts in some
areas, especially on north-south roads in open areas. Most
significantly, DuPage Airport has been reporting 3/4 mile or less
visibility since just prior to 1pm and 1/4 mile visibility in
heavy snow as of the 2pm hour. Thus the message remains the same,
a combo of any falling snow and blowing snow with winds sustained
20-30 mph gusting up to 30-35 mph and briefly 40 mph at times will
cause temporary sharply reduced visibility and possibly even
brief near blizzard conditions. With the narrow character of these
snow shower streamers on radar, also expect to encounter rapidly
changing visibility and road conditions. Forecast soundings
indicate that the setup will be less favorable for occasional
moderate-heavy snow rates in these snow showers this evening and
probably lower coverage as well, but did maintain snow shower
mention. Blowing snow will continue to be an issue, especially in
open areas.

Wind chills in the -10 to -20 range as of this writing will fall
to solidly 20 to 30 below during the evening commute and 30 to 40
below by the late evening as temperatures quickly fall to below
zero area wide and a rapid fall commences during the evening. The
core of the coldest air mass will advect over the area after
midnight into Wednesday morning, bottoming out in the mid to
possibly mid minus 30s Celsius (possibly minus upper 30s) at 850
mb. For reference, the coldest ever observed 850 mb temperature at
ILX/PIA/RAN RAOB site is -32.9C on 1/10/1982. This will be true
direct Arctic discharge as a lobe of the tropospheric polar vortex
clips the region, a hallmark of past historic Arctic outbreaks.
The arrival of coldest air mass will likely be marked by a bit of
an uptick in the gusty winds overnight, with gusts back up to the
30-35 mph range until or just before daybreak.

The low level cold air advection will continue through mid-day
Wednesday, thus minimum air temperatures should be reached from
7-9am. With this being an advection cold, am now forecasting the
entire CWA to be 20 below or colder, including downtown Chicago.
Lowest temps will be about 27 to 28 below, so Rockford certainly
has a chance to tie or break its coldest all-time temperature
tomorrow morning and it may be close at ORD. Wednesday morning
will have the most dangerous/life-threatening wind chills at 50 to
60 below for most of the area due to sustained winds 15-25 mph
gusting to 30-35 mph. If you have the option to stay indoors
tomorrow, you are urged to strongly consider it, considering the
brutal cold and likelihood of at least patchy blowing snow. Have
adjusted forecast "high" temps Wednesday afternoon down slightly
from already astounding levels to now all areas staying at 10
below or colder and some locations in interior northern IL west of
Fox Valley possibly not getting above 20 below. Assuming
Chicago-O`Hare is colder than -11 at midnight tonight, which
appears likely, then the new coldest high temperature on record
appears extremely likely on Wednesday. Have even higher confidence
in Rockford setting the new record cold high temp.

With air temps in the teens below zero through the afternoon,
afternoon wind chills will remain dangerous in the -35 to -45
range even with gradually diminishing westerly winds. For the
grand finale of this possibly unprecedented Arctic blast,
Wednesday night into Thursday morning appears primed to set
records. Models continue to settle on very favorable position of
1035 mb surface ridge axis for strong decoupling over the deep
snow pack, along with indication to this point that any high
clouds will remain at bay until "the damage has been done" with
temps. Suspect that most guidance is too strong with winds, so
lowered speeds to below lowest MOS or bias corrected guidance, and
wouldn`t be surprised if outlying locations go calm at times. Only
possible fly in the ointment would be these above factors
trending less favorable, but at this time do not see that
occurring. The models have not backed off and in some cases, such
as ECMWF, have incredibly trended slightly colder for Thursday
morning lows.

With the teens below zero starting point, see no reason why
favored outlying locations in northern Illinois won`t reach or
exceed the state low temperature record (-36F in Congerville on
1/5/1999), thus have continued to forecast as such at locations
like KRPJ and KARR and surrounding areas. Would not be surprised
if we have some places bottom out at -40F. If RFD does not set
new all time record cold temperature Wednesday morning, it appears
likely to shatter the record Thursday morning (our official
forecast is now -32). There will be more of a urban "heat" island
gradient from Chicago to the suburbs as cold will be purely
radiational driven. Chicago still expected to have another
night/morning of the entire city -20 or colder, and ORD will be
very close to the -27 record from 1985. Eye opening that the 12z
ECMWF is indicating -30 there and many ensemble members are close
to the record. Finally, have added patchy fog mention to the grids
outside of Chicago, with the thinking being that rare ice fog
formation is possible with the Arctic temps and light winds.
Clouds will increase of Thursday afternoon`s clipper, with a
better recovery in temps but still locations I-80 and north
outside of downtown Chicago may not reach 0 degrees.

Castro
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CheeselandSkies

CheeselandSkies

Posted
Posted
20 minutes ago, Jackstraw said:

End one work week at 20-30 below start the next work week at 50 to 60 above.  You'd think there'd be some kind of storm mixed in there somewhere lol.  freakin' nuts :axe:

Yeah what is up with these insane temperature swings without epic blizzards and or/tornado outbreaks? Temperature extremes and excessive rainfall seem to be the only types of extreme weather we can get to verify in these parts this decade.

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King James

King James

Posted
Posted
Ricky's afd
Area Forecast DiscussionNational Weather Service Chicago/Romeoville, IL325 PM CST Tue Jan 29 2019.SHORT TERM...325 PM CSTThrough Wednesday...The much advertised record to near record cold blast is on ourdoorstep this afternoon. First order of business are the scatteredsnow showers and blowing snow that are causing impacts in someareas, especially on north-south roads in open areas. Mostsignificantly, DuPage Airport has been reporting 3/4 mile or lessvisibility since just prior to 1pm and 1/4 mile visibility inheavy snow as of the 2pm hour. Thus the message remains the same,a combo of any falling snow and blowing snow with winds sustained20-30 mph gusting up to 30-35 mph and briefly 40 mph at times willcause temporary sharply reduced visibility and possibly evenbrief near blizzard conditions. With the narrow character of thesesnow shower streamers on radar, also expect to encounter rapidlychanging visibility and road conditions. Forecast soundingsindicate that the setup will be less favorable for occasionalmoderate-heavy snow rates in these snow showers this evening andprobably lower coverage as well, but did maintain snow showermention. Blowing snow will continue to be an issue, especially inopen areas.Wind chills in the -10 to -20 range as of this writing will fallto solidly 20 to 30 below during the evening commute and 30 to 40below by the late evening as temperatures quickly fall to belowzero area wide and a rapid fall commences during the evening. Thecore of the coldest air mass will advect over the area aftermidnight into Wednesday morning, bottoming out in the mid topossibly mid minus 30s Celsius (possibly minus upper 30s) at 850mb. For reference, the coldest ever observed 850 mb temperature atILX/PIA/RAN RAOB site is -32.9C on 1/10/1982. This will be truedirect Arctic discharge as a lobe of the tropospheric polar vortexclips the region, a hallmark of past historic Arctic outbreaks.The arrival of coldest air mass will likely be marked by a bit ofan uptick in the gusty winds overnight, with gusts back up to the30-35 mph range until or just before daybreak.The low level cold air advection will continue through mid-dayWednesday, thus minimum air temperatures should be reached from7-9am. With this being an advection cold, am now forecasting theentire CWA to be 20 below or colder, including downtown Chicago.Lowest temps will be about 27 to 28 below, so Rockford certainlyhas a chance to tie or break its coldest all-time temperaturetomorrow morning and it may be close at ORD. Wednesday morningwill have the most dangerous/life-threatening wind chills at 50 to60 below for most of the area due to sustained winds 15-25 mphgusting to 30-35 mph. If you have the option to stay indoorstomorrow, you are urged to strongly consider it, considering thebrutal cold and likelihood of at least patchy blowing snow. Haveadjusted forecast "high" temps Wednesday afternoon down slightlyfrom already astounding levels to now all areas staying at 10below or colder and some locations in interior northern IL west ofFox Valley possibly not getting above 20 below. AssumingChicago-O`Hare is colder than -11 at midnight tonight, whichappears likely, then the new coldest high temperature on recordappears extremely likely on Wednesday. Have even higher confidencein Rockford setting the new record cold high temp.With air temps in the teens below zero through the afternoon,afternoon wind chills will remain dangerous in the -35 to -45range even with gradually diminishing westerly winds. For thegrand finale of this possibly unprecedented Arctic blast,Wednesday night into Thursday morning appears primed to setrecords. Models continue to settle on very favorable position of1035 mb surface ridge axis for strong decoupling over the deepsnow pack, along with indication to this point that any highclouds will remain at bay until "the damage has been done" withtemps. Suspect that most guidance is too strong with winds, solowered speeds to below lowest MOS or bias corrected guidance, andwouldn`t be surprised if outlying locations go calm at times. Onlypossible fly in the ointment would be these above factorstrending less favorable, but at this time do not see thatoccurring. The models have not backed off and in some cases, suchas ECMWF, have incredibly trended slightly colder for Thursdaymorning lows.With the teens below zero starting point, see no reason whyfavored outlying locations in northern Illinois won`t reach orexceed the state low temperature record (-36F in Congerville on1/5/1999), thus have continued to forecast as such at locationslike KRPJ and KARR and surrounding areas. Would not be surprisedif we have some places bottom out at -40F. If RFD does not setnew all time record cold temperature Wednesday morning, it appearslikely to shatter the record Thursday morning (our officialforecast is now -32). There will be more of a urban "heat" islandgradient from Chicago to the suburbs as cold will be purelyradiational driven. Chicago still expected to have anothernight/morning of the entire city -20 or colder, and ORD will bevery close to the -27 record from 1985. Eye opening that the 12zECMWF is indicating -30 there and many ensemble members are closeto the record. Finally, have added patchy fog mention to the gridsoutside of Chicago, with the thinking being that rare ice fogformation is possible with the Arctic temps and light winds.Clouds will increase of Thursday afternoon`s clipper, with abetter recovery in temps but still locations I-80 and northoutside of downtown Chicago may not reach 0 degrees.Castro


Great read.
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Knightking2018

Knightking2018

Posted
Posted
28 minutes ago, OrdIowPitMsp said:

-15F winds of 25 gusting to 36 with a windchill of -44F and we have another hour of daylight!

Stepped outside to run some errands and the wind just absolutely obliterates any exposed skin. 

   It feels like your exposed flesh is being peeled off or stung at those types of wind chills. 

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Hoosier

Hoosier

Posted
Posted
6 minutes ago, Chicago Storm said:

And there it is... RAP the first showing -40's in the region. -41 near SQI 12z Thur morning and -32 ORD, with temps still dropping.

RAPFLT2_sfc_temp_039.png.a7c4319e6b382a0631fa6d73e6f9e549.png

RC mentioned about the 5 coldest temps for Chicago occurring in advective regimes.  This certainly appears like it will be an exception with the question being just how cold it will get.

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