AppsRunner Posted January 28, 2019 Share Posted January 28, 2019 After getting to 37 a couple hours ago, it’s now 18 with gusts to 45mph 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MNstorms Posted January 28, 2019 Author Share Posted January 28, 2019 Yikes. NWS forecast for me: Quote Tuesday Patchy blowing snow after 11am. Mostly sunny and cold, with a temperature falling to around -17 by 5pm. Wind chill values as low as -45. Blustery, with a northwest wind 15 to 20 mph, with gusts as high as 30 mph. Tuesday Night Patchy blowing snow before 10pm. Mostly cloudy, with a low around -30. Wind chill values as low as -58. Blustery, with a northwest wind 15 to 20 mph, with gusts as high as 30 mph. Wednesday Mostly sunny and cold, with a high near -18. West northwest wind 10 to 15 mph. Wednesday Night Mostly clear, with a low around -33. West wind 5 to 10 mph. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted January 28, 2019 Share Posted January 28, 2019 Slowly starting to get into range on the HRRR. This is just by 0z tomorrow evening.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beavis1729 Posted January 28, 2019 Share Posted January 28, 2019 LOT .LONG TERM... 319 AM CST Tuesday through Sunday... Certainly the main story continues to be the well advertised period of dangerously and potentially historic cold temperatures from Tuesday evening through Thursday morning. The latest forecast still has the Rockford area very near their all time record low of minus 27 Tuesday night and a couple degrees colder than that Wednesday night. The forecast daytime high Wednesday around minus 15 for RFD would beat their all time record coldest high of minus 14. The forecast lows for Chicago presently look a few degrees above their all time record which also is minus 27 but the forecast daytime high Wednesday around minus 14 would beat their all time record coldest high of minus 11. For both locations, the all time record that looks most in jeopardy would be the all time coldest average temperature for one day which is around minus 18 at both sites. As an aside, the daily records for both locations look to be crushed on Wednesday and Thursday. Aside from all the talk about numbers, wind chill headlines also deserve a mention. Was not sure how best to handle wind chill watch, advisory, and warning decisions based on the different onset times from northwest to southeast across the forecast area. For all locations the key period of warning level wind chills, meaning below minus 30 degrees, would be Tuesday evening to about noon Thursday. This matches the watch that was issued this morning. This does not mean to imply that the daytime Tuesday or the afternoon of Thursday will be balmy in any way. Wind chill advisory headlines may very well be needed both before and after the warning period. This is especially true toward the northwest third of the forecast area which likely will need an advisory starting Tuesday morning. For Thursday afternoon, highs look to be in the single digits both below and above zero but winds look relatively light with a ridge moving overhead. Beyond the cold period...on Thursday night both the GFS and ECMWF now want to show a quick shot of light snow associated with a weak shortwave aloft and a bit of warm advection at lower levels. Obviously it is too early to give this significant attention with the bigger concerns in the near term, but anticipated QPF amounts presently would not suggest this would warrant additional headlines later in the week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beavis1729 Posted January 28, 2019 Share Posted January 28, 2019 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beavis1729 Posted January 28, 2019 Share Posted January 28, 2019 The progged -65 wind chill is SE MN is based on a temp of -35, with 16 mph winds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roger Smith Posted January 28, 2019 Share Posted January 28, 2019 Temp/dp of -53/-62 F at Geraldton ON north of Lake Superior this morning (13z obs). 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beavis1729 Posted January 28, 2019 Share Posted January 28, 2019 10 minutes ago, Roger Smith said: Temp/dp of -53/-62 F at Geraldton ON north of Lake Superior this morning (13z obs). Wow. This town is located at 50N. Per Wikipedia, their all-time record low is -58F, and their normal January low is -13F. So, this morning's low is 40 degrees below normal. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Greenstone,_Ontario 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beavis1729 Posted January 28, 2019 Share Posted January 28, 2019 FWIW, the 6z FV3 shows temps and wind chills significantly colder than the GFS. For example, temps near -40 in far NW IL with wind chills in the -60s. I wish I could believe it, but have to admit that it's overdone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beavis1729 Posted January 28, 2019 Share Posted January 28, 2019 Posting various AFDs for posterity. DLH Arctic air streams into the Northland tonight with overnight lows generally between 10 and 30 below zero. Winds are expected to remain elevated overnight due to cold air advection keeping the low-levels mixed along with a tightening pressure gradient. Resultant wind chills of 30 to 55 below zero are expected overnight. With the prolonged period of dangerously cold temperatures and wind chills, have decided to issue a Wind Chill Watch from 06Z tonight through 15Z Thursday. Dangerously cold temperatures and wind chills will continue through the day Tuesday. Afternoon highs will struggle to reach 20 below along our western border and will climb into the middle single digits below zero in our eastern zones. Winds will strengthen as the pressure gradient tightens during the day with wind chills in the 40s below zero west and to around 20 below zero east. .LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Sunday) Issued at 421 AM CST Mon Jan 28 2019 The period will start off very cold, especially Tuesday night into Thursday. The Northland will see very low temperatures and dangerous wind chills Tuesday night, wind chills that are not very common even for northern Minnesota. The area will be between high pressure centered over the Dakotas and low pressure well off to the east Tuesday night and this will lead to sustained wind speeds between 8 and 15 MPH for most areas. The wind combined with overnight lows from 25 below to 35 below zero will create wind chills from 45 below to 60 below zero. The lowest wind chills will occur over the western half of the area. High temperatures Wednesday will only be from 5 below to around 10 below over northwest Wisconsin and from 10 below to 18 below over northern Minnesota and wind chills will only improve to 25 below to 40 below during the afternoon. As the upper low moves further east, a surface ridge will move over the area Wednesday night. The ridge will be over most of the Northland by 12Z Thursday and winds will be lower than Tuesday night, and may go calm in spots. Despite the coldest air aloft moderating Wednesday/Wednesday night slightly, Wednesday nights lows will be colder in spots than Tuesday night due to good radiational cooling conditions. Low temperatures will drop to 25 below to around 30 below for most of northern Wisconsin and from 30 below to around 45 below over much of northern Minnesota. Wind chills will be from 30 below to around 50 below but wind speeds will be quite a bit lower than what occurs Tuesday night into Wednesday. More sun is expected on Thursday, outside of the South Shore area. Highs will rise into the single digits below zero and wind chills will be less of a concern by Thursday afternoon. The surface high will continue through the Northland Thursday night with lows in the teens below zero to around 25 below and with lighter winds, wind chill values from 20 below to 35 below are expected. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted January 28, 2019 Share Posted January 28, 2019 Point's been lowered down to -28 for Thu morning. The all-time record at MLI is -28 from early feb '96. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beavis1729 Posted January 28, 2019 Share Posted January 28, 2019 15 minutes ago, cyclone77 said: Point's been lowered down to -28 for Thu morning. The all-time record at MLI is -28 from early feb '96. For here, it's -22 Wed morning, -14 for the high on Wed, then -26 Thu morning. If the models don't deviate from what is currently progged on the GFS and Euro, I could see both of our points dropping another 1-2 degrees. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 28, 2019 Share Posted January 28, 2019 2 hours ago, Chicago Storm said: Slowly starting to get into range on the HRRR. This is just by 0z tomorrow evening... . I firmly believe the warmest models (such as the NAM) are too warm and will be playing catch up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted January 28, 2019 Share Posted January 28, 2019 I haven't checked this many simulated satellite forecasts since the eclipse event back in 2017 lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted January 28, 2019 Share Posted January 28, 2019 Cedar Rapids set its cold record of -29F in 2009, I think. Of course, that's at the airport out south of the city. I don't think we came close to that here in town. I would like to see at least -25F at the local school stations this time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beavis1729 Posted January 28, 2019 Share Posted January 28, 2019 I guess this was kind of expected...but, unfortunately, the GFS appears to be backing off on the severity of the airmass a bit. Coldest H85 temps on the 12z GFS for N IL are now around -35C, compared to -38C a couple of days ago. Even more concerning is that the duration of the extremely cold H85 temps is quite a bit shorter than it looked a few days ago...meaning that the timing of everything will need to work out even more perfectly. Not pointing this out to raise alarm or anything, as this will still be a special event. But when going for all-time records, every degree counts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 28, 2019 Share Posted January 28, 2019 15z RAP already has ORD around -23 at midnight Wednesday, more or less resembling the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted January 28, 2019 Share Posted January 28, 2019 22 minutes ago, Hoosier said: 15z RAP already has ORD around -23 at midnight Wednesday, more or less resembling the GFS. With wind chills already dipping to -55 over northern IL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chambana Posted January 28, 2019 Share Posted January 28, 2019 Pretty bummed we are heading into this historic cold wave with minimal snowpack. Temp has been steady at 36 degrees for the last 5 hours, with a light rain that is chewing away at this snowpack. Large bare spots in the yard now, with crusty dirty glaciers remaining. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scorpion Posted January 28, 2019 Share Posted January 28, 2019 Here at MKE the local news are calling for -23 and -55 wind chill, and -60 in Waukesha where I work. Those numbers just seem impossible that they’ll verify, I certainly don’t think my car would start or anything. We do have a really nice 8-10” fresh snow pack though that continues to build.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beavis1729 Posted January 28, 2019 Share Posted January 28, 2019 Wind Chill Warning from LOT URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Chicago IL 136 PM CST Mon Jan 28 2019 ILZ003>006-008-010>014-019>022-INZ001-002-290345- /O.UPG.KLOT.WC.A.0002.190130T0000Z-190131T1800Z/ /O.NEW.KLOT.WC.W.0001.190130T0000Z-190131T1800Z/ /O.NEW.KLOT.WC.Y.0003.190129T1000Z-190130T0000Z/ /O.CON.KLOT.WW.Y.0006.000000T0000Z-190129T0000Z/ Winnebago-Boone-McHenry-Lake IL-Ogle-Lee-DeKalb-Kane-DuPage-Cook- La Salle-Kendall-Grundy-Will-Lake IN-Porter- Including the cities of Rockford, Belvidere, Woodstock, Waukegan, Oregon, Dixon, DeKalb, Aurora, Elgin, Wheaton, Chicago, Ottawa, Oswego, Morris, Joliet, Gary, and Valparaiso 136 PM CST Mon Jan 28 2019 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING... ...WIND CHILL ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 4 AM TO 6 PM CST TUESDAY... ...WIND CHILL WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM TUESDAY TO NOON CST THURSDAY... * WHAT...Light snow and areas of blowing snow this afternoon. Dangerously cold wind chills expected. Wind chills 20 to 30 below Tuesday and as low as 55 below zero expected Tuesday night through Thursday morning. * WHERE...Portions of northwest Indiana and north central and northeast Illinois. * WHEN...For the Wind Chill Warning, from 6 PM Tuesday to noon CST Thursday. For the Winter Weather Advisory, until 6 PM CST this evening. For the Wind Chill Advisory, from 4 AM to 6 PM CST Tuesday. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Plan on slippery road conditions. The hazardous conditions could impact the morning or evening commute. The dangerously cold wind chills could cause frostbite on exposed skin in as little as 5 minutes. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A Wind Chill Warning means the combination of very cold air and the wind will create dangerously low wind chill values. Frostbite can occur quickly and even hypothermia or death if precautions are not taken. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 28, 2019 Share Posted January 28, 2019 After midnight, we're gonna let it all hang down Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
madwx Posted January 28, 2019 Share Posted January 28, 2019 MKX issues Wind Chill Advisory from 4AM - 6PM Tuesday and a Wind Chill Warning from 6PM Tuesday - Noon Thursday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted January 28, 2019 Share Posted January 28, 2019 IWX has issued a warning as well, calling for up to -50 chills here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 28, 2019 Share Posted January 28, 2019 Too bad it appears the coldest 850 mb temps will pass over DVN in between RAOB times. They should do off hour launches for something like this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AppsRunner Posted January 28, 2019 Share Posted January 28, 2019 9 minutes ago, Hoosier said: Too bad it appears the coldest 850 mb temps will pass over DVN in between RAOB times. They should do off hour launches for something like this. The intern that would have to perform the flight disagrees U of Iowa has already cancelled classes Tuesday PM - Thursday. Wonder who will follow suit Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 28, 2019 Share Posted January 28, 2019 I wouldn't bet on it yet but there is a not impossible/plausible scenario where ORD ties/breaks the current all-time -27F mark not only on Wednesday morning, but Thursday as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
luckyweather Posted January 28, 2019 Share Posted January 28, 2019 Large bare spots in the yard now, with crusty dirty glaciers remaining. If there’s a better recipe for depression, I don’t know what it is. Sorry for your loss.On the other side of the coin, we’re reloaded and refreshed here on the IL/WI Stateline and in optimal shape to maximize the potential of the incoming airmass. I do have to say my thoughts keep going to the wildlife. Going to be very hard on them. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beavis1729 Posted January 28, 2019 Share Posted January 28, 2019 DVN .CLIMATE... ISSUED AT 251 AM CST Mon Jan 28 2019 Record lows for January 29th... Burlington........ -19 in 1966 Cedar Rapids...... -24 in 1966 Dubuque........... -26 in 1951 Moline............ -19 in 1966 Record lows for January 30th... Burlington........ -20 in 1899 Cedar Rapids...... -22 in 1951 Dubuque........... -25 in 1951 Moline............ -14 in 1966 and previous years Record cool highs for January 30th... Dubuque............ -3 in 1996 Moline............. -2 in 1951 Record lows for January 31st... Burlington........ -20 in 1996 Cedar Rapids...... -21 in 1996 and previous years Dubuque........... -24 in 1996 Moline............ -21 in 1996 Coldest January low temperatures... Burlington........ -24 on 1/14/1957 Cedar Rapids...... -29* on 1/15/2009 Dubuque........... -32 on 1/07/1887 Moline............ -27 on 1/16/2009 1/02/1979 1/05/1884 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 28, 2019 Share Posted January 28, 2019 LOT .LONG TERM... 243 PM CST Tuesday through Monday... Lobe of the polar vortex will pivot southeast into the western Great Lakes region Tuesday afternoon into Tuesday night with guidance in excellent agreement advertising record or near record low 500mb heights and 850mb temps. Tuesday, continued and strengthening cold air advection will not only result in minimal rise in temps Tuesday, but also help steepen up the low level lapse rates. The steep low level lapse rates and DCVA associated with approaching strong vort max in the base of the upper low should support at least flurries and likely some scattered snow showers as well during the afternoon. While models largely show little or no QPF tomorrow afternoon, the amount of water vapor in the column at these temps is minuscule and could easily see some respectable snow showers that locally whiten the ground without actually producing measurable liquid precip. Snow showers threat should diminish inversion heights lower and vort lobe passes to our east Tuesday evening. Really very little change in thinking temperature-wise that hasn`t been extensively covered in the past several AFDs. As mentioned in the previous AFD this morning, have gone ahead with a wind chill advisory for 10z Tue through 00z Wed. Wouldn`t normally do a separate advisory, however the forecast duration of the advisory level conditions are easily 12+ hours. Roughly included counties along and northwest of I-55 in collaboration with ILX/MKX/DVN. We ramp the advisory up to a wind chill warning starting 00z Wed and running through 18z Thursday. Winds chills will commonly be 30 to 45 below zero for the duration of the warning with the period of lowest wind chills (likely as low as 40 to 55 below zero) expected after midnight Tuesday night through midday Wednesday. After discounting what we think (and hope) are unrealistically low 2m temps in the GFS and GFS-FV3, we`re left with a suite of guidance that is in good agreement with respect to temperatures. The strong model agreement does help ease the inherent uncertainty in forecasting all time record breaking temperatures. At this point, it appears fairly likely that both Chicago and Rockford will break the daily record cold high temperature Wednesday, as long as temps at 12:01 AM Wednesday (Tues night) are at or below the record low maxes (see climate section for specifics). One notable change in model guidance over the past 24 hours is with respect to placement of the surface ridge axis. There is now strong agreement in said surface high being directly over northern IL and northwest IN late Wed night into Thursday morning. Very deep snow pack, expected clear or mostly clear skies, and light winds with nearby high sets the stage for very strong radiational cooling Wednesday night. As it looks in the model guidance now, hard to envision the all time record low temperature for the state not being threatened or broken at one of the typical cold spots Thursday morning. Both the ECMWF and GEM have fairly widespread temps in the -30`s, and saw no reason to not expand the area of lows colder than minus 30 in the grids early Thur morning. The one saving grace Thur morning with be much lighter, if not calm, winds, which should keep wind chills from being quite as low as Wednesday. Northwest flow clipper system is progged to ride the northwest flow on the heels of departing upper trough Thursday night. This clipper will likely produce a swath of accumulating snow, though at this distance the track this clipper takes is still uncertain. Our CWA is certainly within the cone of uncertainty of the track and we`ll need to keep an eye on this system. In the wake of that clipper, large scale pattern change is expected across the CONUS heading into next weekend. The result will be a more zonal flow which should allow MUCH milder Pacific air to spread into the area. Does look like we could be in a somewhat unsettled patten later this weekend into next week. - Izzi Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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