Hoosier Posted January 29, 2019 Share Posted January 29, 2019 The map from 1/20/1985 compared with GFS prog for 1/30/2019. Look a little similar? No two setups the same, of course. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted January 29, 2019 Share Posted January 29, 2019 03z RAP shows midday temps on Wednesday between -22 and -24 for northern IL/eastern IA. This one's gonna be one for the ages boys. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted January 29, 2019 Share Posted January 29, 2019 A lot of us grew up with the old wind chill chart, when it was sort of common to achieve -40 or lower wind chills during a harsh arctic outbreak. I can remember in the '94 arctic outbreak they were forecasting -60 to -80 wind chills for northern IA. On the modern scale (post 2001) seeing wind chills down near -60 show up on the models this far south is pretty astounding. I found the old chart, and it looks like the wind chill potential using the old scale would be between -65 and -80 for the western sub. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bowtie` Posted January 29, 2019 Share Posted January 29, 2019 Do not forget that if the air temp it gets down to -35, to take a pot of boiling water outside and make your own snow. Oh and take a vid of it and post it here. Thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torchageddon Posted January 29, 2019 Share Posted January 29, 2019 2 hours ago, Jim Martin said: 0z HRRR being quite bullish on the Wind Chill temperatures for Wednesday Morning. Absolutely ludicrous. I can't believe that's the HRRR's output. Large cities will be shutdown with that. That's a much colder run than my forecast point for Wednesday morning WC wise. Furnaces will be running continuously. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OrdIowPitMsp Posted January 29, 2019 Share Posted January 29, 2019 -1 at MSP, -1.7 here, which will be the high temperature for January 29th 2019. Let’s see how many hours we stay below zero. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 29, 2019 Share Posted January 29, 2019 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 29, 2019 Share Posted January 29, 2019 00z Euro is obscene with Thursday lows. Looks a hair colder than 12z overall. Cedar Rapids gets to like -37. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted January 29, 2019 Share Posted January 29, 2019 6 minutes ago, Hoosier said: 00z Euro is obscene with Thursday lows. Looks a hair colder than 12z overall. Cedar Rapids gets to like -37. Yeah it did one-up the 12z. Also colder at 18z on Wed, with -22 to -24 similar to what the 03z RAP showed for northern IL/east IA. Verbatim the new Euro has Waterloo hitting -39, Cedar Rapids -38, and DVN -37. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 29, 2019 Share Posted January 29, 2019 8 minutes ago, cyclone77 said: Yeah it did one-up the 12z. Also colder at 18z on Wed, with -22 to -24 similar to what the 03z RAP showed for northern IL/east IA. Verbatim the new Euro has Waterloo hitting -39, Cedar Rapids -38, and DVN -37. Even managed a -27 in downtown Chicago. That is like impossible to imagine with the UHI. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted January 29, 2019 Share Posted January 29, 2019 3 minutes ago, Hoosier said: Even managed a -27 in downtown Chicago. That is like impossible to imagine with the UHI. Wow that is extremely impressive if that happens. As impressive as the Jan '14 arctic outbreak was, this one looks to put that one to shame. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted January 29, 2019 Share Posted January 29, 2019 Beavis going to be sunbathing soon.... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beavis1729 Posted January 29, 2019 Share Posted January 29, 2019 13 minutes ago, Baum said: Beavis going to be sunbathing soon.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beavis1729 Posted January 29, 2019 Share Posted January 29, 2019 DVN .LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday) ISSUED AT 203 AM CST Tue Jan 29 2019 ...Near record cold to record cold, with extreme wind chills remains on track... The strongest push of Arctic air will come through our area early Wednesday morning, with the high gradually centering itself over the CWA by Thursday morning. This entire period will be noted by wind chills below -30. The coldest wind chills, with the combined effect of -20s temperatures and sustained 10 to 18 mph winds will be early Wednesday morning where wind chills in the north half fall to the extreme range of -50 to -60. That extreme should last through late morning, before being dominated by -35 to -45. The south half should be -40 to -50 through Noon, then -30 to -35 in the afternoon. Wednesday night into Thursday morning, with high overhead and radiation finally able to drop temperatures beyond the advection, we will continue to face wind chill values of -25 to -45, but with increasing variability after midnight, as winds become light. Thursday morning, lows of -30 to -33 are likely along and north of I- 80, and over the Rock River valley in Illinois. This is possible all time record levels!! Just south, -15 to -25 are likely. I specifically am not forecasting an all time low at Moline, for two reasons. One, the urban heat island impact in light west winds, and the second, also dealing in winds, the MLI airport really only sees cold air drainage at the ASOS there when there is an extremely light east to northeast wind, which taps drainage air. This is what happened a few days ago, when we hit -22. No matter the case, we are within a couple degrees of all time cold! Somewhat problematic for headlines, is that Thursday morning, wind chills may or may not be extreme, as winds will be light. However, ANY WIND, will bring extreme wind chills given the air temperatures below -25 in much of the CWA. No changes expected in the wind chill warning. The sustained extreme cold with wind, followed by extreme cold with lesser wind should continue to bring the advertised impacts which include: vehicle problems(battery/tires/engine performance), 5-15 minute frostbite on exposed skin, water main breaks, burst pipes inside homes/business, enhanced risk of fires from improper use of home heating, pet/livestock impacts, and carbon monoxide poisoning risk increase. In general, we just are not routinely prepared for dealing with this, and the widespread cancellations already declared seem to give hope that the message is out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beavis1729 Posted January 29, 2019 Share Posted January 29, 2019 LOT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Chicago/Romeoville, IL 604 AM CST Tue Jan 29 2019 .SHORT TERM... 323 AM CST Through Thursday... The long-advertised bitter and likely record cold is inbound this morning, with the first cold front having advanced over the area last night while the second much more substantial cold surge is coming this evening. In terms of the cold, very little has changed with the character of the forecast, with tonight through Thursday morning the most dangerous time of cold. A couple all-time records remain forecast as noted below. Wind chill headlines continue as is. Forecast winds today have been increased some and am concerned for areas of blowing snow, even potential ground blizzard conditions in some rural areas this afternoon into tonight. Will highlight this in messaging. Finally, the pattern for nearly the past two weeks has been "every day it snows" (and has 12 straight at Chicago), and feel that scattered snow showers and/or flurries are a good bet from late morning on. Satellite imagery this morning depicts the lobe of polar air marching southward from Canada into the Upper Midwest. Observed last evening in central Canada with this were a dynamic tropopause below 700 mb, sub 500dm 500 mb heights, and 850 mb temperatures near -40C. This will advance southeastward toward the area today with little to no moderation. As this supports deepening of the surface low over the central Great Lakes, cold advection will persist and on a unidirectional westerly wind profile. Given steep low-level lapse rates in this regime, even with some clouds, see nothing to prevent winds gusting to 30 mph regularly this afternoon and evening, possibly even 35+ mph sporadically. Given yesterday`s blowing and drifting snow, at times producing very low visibility especially in north central Illinois, would envision similar problems today and maybe even to a higher degree especially in and near any snow showers that may develop. If just a tad higher winds, would strongly consider a Winter Weather Advisory, but feel the WSW for the wind chills and an SPS for the blowing snow will convey the message just fine. As for the potential for falling snow, there are multiple small scale impulses upstream seen on satellite. In just the broad scale DPVA and low-level CAA pattern, there should be some daytime enhancement with isolated to scattered snow showers and flurries in this especially given the readily ability to saturate with respect to ice. The cloud depths are shallow so not expecting heavy snow showers, but with the gusty winds could temporarily push down visibility sharply in some places. Temperatures will hold steady on these winds with little if any rebound today. These support the Wind Chill Advisory for today. For duration below zero interests, it is possible some places dip below this morning then briefly top zero before heading into the deep cold this evening. The 925mb temperatures will drop to near record low levels of -34C tonight using ILX sounding climatology. While do think there will be some clouds including into the overnight over far northern Illinois, advection will mainly drive temperatures. Clouds could still impact a few degrees so naturally there is uncertainty in specifics. Have only made subtle tweaks and have Rockford right at their all time record low of -27, while Chicago metro -18 to -24. It really is amazing to have the wind speeds we will have with those temperatures, and as such wind chills still fall out -45 to -55 by Wednesday morning. This is dangerous, extremely rare cold and continues to be the center of our safety message for this event. While less wind on Wednesday, cold advection continues, and highs still look to be negative double digits for most of the area. Have both Rockford and Chicago at their all time record cold high temperature, and again for the calendar day there will be heavy dependence on what midnight temperature is namely at Chicago, and that`s going to be close to -11. The signature of the high pressure moving over northern Illinois Wednesday night continues to be consistent and sets the stage for ideal radiational cooling with a near to record low starting point into the night. So all time record lows continue to show potential with widespread -20s and some -30s in favorable places. The -30 forecast for Rockford still looks good, with 75 percent of available 00Z guidance forecasting a record low at Rockford. For Chicago, about 15 percent of models forecast an all time record low at ORD. Favorable locations in north central Illinois, could easily push -35 to -39 for lows with all the ingredients lining up. In terms of impacts, the wind chills will be lessening by Thursday morning due to the light or even calm winds in some spots. Nonetheless, record cold is obviously impacting enough, so the Wind Chill Warning duration looks really good. Clouds should start moving in Thursday and many locations are likely to remain below zero through the day. Light snow will be possible by afternoon as the elevated baroclinic zone starts to move overhead, with better chances after dark. MTF Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beavis1729 Posted January 29, 2019 Share Posted January 29, 2019 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chambana Posted January 29, 2019 Share Posted January 29, 2019 University of Illinois has already cancelled classes for tomorrow, and every single school has shut down for tomorrow as well. This is going to be a brutal 48 hours. Rural Champaign could definitely hit the -45 to -50 range with windchills. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beavis1729 Posted January 29, 2019 Share Posted January 29, 2019 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beavis1729 Posted January 29, 2019 Share Posted January 29, 2019 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beavis1729 Posted January 29, 2019 Share Posted January 29, 2019 06z FV3 is not backing down at all. It shows -42C H85 temps in west-central MN at 0z tonight; I think this is the coldest modeled output that I've seen so far. Also, -38C H85 temps in N IL at 9z Wed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beavis1729 Posted January 29, 2019 Share Posted January 29, 2019 While I think Chicago and Rockford will be comfortably safe from the "midnight high" on Wed morning, some of the models are showing that it may warm up enough on Wed afternoon to prevent breaking the all-time record low maxes (-11 Chicago and -14 Rockford)...before temps tank again at sunset. Yesterday, I thought we'd have a 90% chance of this record being broken at both ORD and RFD...but right now I'd say 60-70%. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beavis1729 Posted January 29, 2019 Share Posted January 29, 2019 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 29, 2019 Share Posted January 29, 2019 So one of the questions with assessing record low potential for tonight around the area is what the thermal structure in that lowest part of the atmosphere looks like. 925 mb temps are progged in excess of -35C into IL, which is astonishing and near record territory. If you have that value at 2m, that is -31F. We are not talking about good radiational cooling conditions tonight with the kind of pressure gradient in place and perhaps some clouds, so the low levels will remain mixed but to what extent? Do we have dry adiabatic up to 925 mb or weaker lapse rates? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 29, 2019 Share Posted January 29, 2019 26 minutes ago, beavis1729 said: While I think Chicago and Rockford will be comfortably safe from the "midnight high" on Wed morning, some of the models are showing that it may warm up enough on Wed afternoon to prevent breaking the all-time record low maxes (-11 Chicago and -14 Rockford)...before temps tank again at sunset. Yesterday, I thought we'd have a 90% chance of this record being broken at both ORD and RFD...but right now I'd say 60-70%. I'd figure about a 10-12 degree diurnal recovery at ORD, so hope it tanks like crazy tonight to give some wiggle room. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beavis1729 Posted January 29, 2019 Share Posted January 29, 2019 1 minute ago, Hoosier said: I'd figure about a 10-12 degree diurnal recovery at ORD, so hope it tanks like crazy tonight to give some wiggle room. Agree...and many of the models are showing exactly that. As an example, 12z GFS shows -4 at RFD at 6PM tonight, crashing to -22 by midnight...wow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beavis1729 Posted January 29, 2019 Share Posted January 29, 2019 And here it comes... Grand Forks ND at 11 AM central: temp -25, winds N 29 G 43, wind chill -59. Coldest wind chill so far: -61 at Flag Island MN, -27 with NW wind 25 mph. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 29, 2019 Share Posted January 29, 2019 4 minutes ago, beavis1729 said: And here it comes... Grand Forks ND at 11 AM central: temp -25, winds N 29 G 43, wind chill -59. Coldest wind chill so far: -61 at Flag Island ND, -27 with NW wind 25 mph. Gonna be keeping a close eye on how that is performing upstream relative to models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OrdIowPitMsp Posted January 29, 2019 Share Posted January 29, 2019 MSP noon observation. -7F with a windchill of -31F. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaveNay Posted January 29, 2019 Share Posted January 29, 2019 NAM model trend seems to want to back off ever so slightly for 12z Thursday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 29, 2019 Share Posted January 29, 2019 The stratosphere says hi. Will be at a very low level especially where you see that maroon blob. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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