January 24 - 31 Cold Blast

[MNstorms]

Next weekend looks to be chilly. Brrr. Obviously a week away and models overdo it but still something to watch.

 

Please no -40F...

[Michigander]

From the GRR AFD this afternoon:

We will also be watching model trends with a potential clipper on
Thursday or Friday followed by extreme cold for next weekend. The
ECMWF has been going ballistic the past couple days in painting
historical (hysterical?) outbreaks of arctic air across the Great
Lakes and surrounding areas. That signal is also in other models
but not as strong. Even so, highs around 10 above and lows 10
below are well within the realm of possibilities by the end of
the week.

[beavis1729]

Glad you started the thread! 

At the moment, unfortunately, the only time period for which an arctic outbreak is fairly certain in Jan 25-26...and it looks to be short-lived.  It's often hard to break daily records with such a short-duration outbreak, due to possibility of getting the high temp at midnight. 

Various runs of many different models have been occasionally showing the motherload coming down after that...but then it either disappears on subsequent runs, or gets pushed back in time.  The 12z Euro from 1/18/19 was the craziest run of all, but it has since backed off significantly.

Anyway...here are the upcoming daily records for Chicago.  Even though Jan 25-26 seems to be the most certain, I'm including numbers for the rest of January in case the models bring back the arctic outbreak. At this distance, the record with the greatest chance of being broken (and it's still a fairly small chance imo) appears to be the low max of -3 on Jan 26.

Daily records (low and low max):

Jan 25:  -20 (1897); -10 (1904) 

Jan 26:  -16 (1897); -3 (1897)

Jan 27:  -10 (1955); -1 (1895)

Jan 28:  -13 (1977); -3 (1966)

Jan 29:  -16 (1966); -6 (1966)

Jan 30:  -15 (1966); 3 (2004)

Jan 31:  -12 (1985); 1 (1971)

[DaveNay]

2 hours ago, beavis1729 said:

Glad you started the thread! 

At the moment, unfortunately, the only time period for which an arctic outbreak is fairly certain in Jan 25-26...and it looks to be short-lived.  It's often hard to break daily records with such a short-duration outbreak, due to possibility of getting the high temp at midnight. 

Various runs of many different models have been occasionally showing the motherload coming down after that...but then it either disappears on subsequent runs, or gets pushed back in time.  The 12z Euro from 1/18/19 was the craziest run of all, but it has since backed off significantly.

Anyway...here are the upcoming daily records for Chicago.  Even though Jan 25-26 seems to be the most certain, I'm including numbers for the rest of January in case the models bring back the arctic outbreak. At this distance, the record with the greatest chance of being broken (and it's still a fairly small chance imo) appears to be the low max of -3 on Jan 26.

Daily records (low and low max):

Jan 25:  -20 (1897); -10 (1904) 

Jan 26:  -16 (1897); -3 (1897)

Jan 27:  -10 (1955); -1 (1895)

Jan 28:  -13 (1977); -3 (1966)

Jan 29:  -16 (1966); -6 (1966)

Jan 30:  -15 (1966); 3 (2004)

Jan 31:  -12 (1985); 1 (1971)

Don't forget tomorrow is the anniversary of the all-time low temperature in Chicago. -27F 1985

I was in 8th grade, but for some reason I don't remember it at all.

[XfireLOW]

There was already widespread -30s in northern mn the last couple days. A few -40s today too.

[RogueWaves]

And I already have the 10F above/10F below thing in GRR's AFD going on right now.

[beavis1729]

12 hours ago, XfireLOW said:

There was already widespread -30s in northern mn the last couple days. A few -40s today too.

Nice...and the airmass wasn’t even “extreme”. Just great radiational cooling. INL had lows of -38 and -35 on Saturday and Sunday mornings, respectively. Coldest I could find was -42 at Crane Lake and Babbitt. 

[XfireLOW]

I had -32 and-36 at KBDE.  It was completely dead calm both nights.  If you only had to be out for a short time it really didn't feel that bad.  

KBDE station is in plain view at the airport, its in a terrible location for super cold low temps.  Completely flat terrain kind of a bit higher than surrounding area and not really any trees in the vicinity.  

[beavis1729]

With the new snow cover expected in N IL, NWS Chicago has dropped the temps significantly for Friday and Saturday.  Now forecasting a low of -12 on Friday morning at RFD, with highs barely above 0 on Friday afternoon. Could see a wind cill advisory soon; I believe the criteria is -20.   

Could see temps near -30 in northern MN again, but with more wind this time.

 

[beavis1729]

Word has it that today’s 12z Euro has wind chills in the -30s in the Chicago area on days 9-10, with -40s in the upper Midwest. 

 

[cyclone77]

New Euro shows -40s over north-central and northwest IA on the 31st.  -30s over much of the rest of Iowa.  I know it's pretty far off in la-la land, but I can't remember ever seeing temps that cold before from the Euro in Iowa.

[hawkeye_wx]

Wow!  This run shows Cedar Rapids at -32 at NOON.  This is probably too incredible to not back off significantly in the coming days.

[hlcater]

17 minutes ago, hawkeye_wx said:

Wow!  This run shows Cedar Rapids at -32 at NOON.  This is probably too incredible to not back off significantly in the coming days.

That 00z run after FH108 is one of the most incredible euro runs I’ve ever seen in this area.

[MNstorms]

4 hours ago, cyclone77 said:

New Euro shows -40s over north-central and northwest IA on the 31st.  -30s over much of the rest of Iowa.  I know it's pretty far off in la-la land, but I can't remember ever seeing temps that cold before from the Euro in Iowa.

Yeah that's a bit insane. Record coldest temp here is -38F. Euro has -40F for me.

[beavis1729]

 at the Euro.

The 6z FV3 also shows the arctic outbreak for Jan 30-31. Not quite as intense as the 0z Euro, but still very cold.  Verbatim, it looks like -20s in IA and -30s in MN.

[beavis1729]

0z Euro H85 temps at Day 7.

-30C in northern IA, -35C in northern MN, and the infamous -40C in southern Manitoba.

  

 

[Hoosier]

9 hours ago, hawkeye_wx said:

Wow!  This run shows Cedar Rapids at -32 at NOON.  This is probably too incredible to not back off significantly in the coming days.

What is that even?  Like a 1 in 200 year event?  Even more rare?  

[SchaumburgStormer]

25 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

What is that even?  Like a 1 in 200 year event?  Even more rare?  

That’s “glacier flattening the land” cold. 

[beavis1729]

NWS DLH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Duluth MN
1145 AM CST Wed Jan 23 2019

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Thursday)
Issued at 322 AM CST Wed Jan 23 2019

A very strong cold front will bring strong winds followed by a
return to frigid arctic temperatures tonight into Thursday morning.

Today will almost certainly be the warmest day until the end of
January as arctic air returns this weekend through much of next
week. A warm front briefly builds east from the northern Great
Plains into the Upper Midwest today with a ridge of high pressure
ahead of the front helping to create some weak subsidence that will
suppress some of the stratus and associated flurries across the
Northland today, leading to a mix of sun and clouds today before
clouds increase from the west ahead of the cold front that will move
in tonight. Widespread light snow develops along and ahead of the
frontal boundary this evening into tonight resulting in up to an
inch of so of fluffy snow across far northern Minnesota into parts
of northwest Wisconsin.

Late tonight into early Thursday morning the greatest impact of this
cold front will occur as very strong northwest winds of 20 to 30 mph
with gusts up to 40 mph roll through northern and central Minnesota
due to the very strong pressure and thermal gradient between the
seasonable airmass ahead of the front (850mb temps around -5C,
surface temps in the teens above zero) to the Arctic air behind the
front (850mb temps falling to -25 to -30C, surface temps struggling
to reach above zero on Thursday afternoon). The strongest winds will
likely only occur for a few hours as the front moves through, with
breezy winds of 15 to 20 mph lingering into much of the day
Thursday. Skies will clear out from west to east as the arctic
surface high builds in from the west on Thursday afternoon, centered
over the Dakotas around 18z, building southeast towards Iowa
Thursday evening. Surface pressure will increase rapidly with this
front, from around 1010mb 06z Thurs to 1025mb 18z Thurs, a ~15mb
rise in 12 hours. The cold air will filter in behind the front
through the day Thursday resulting in the high temps on Thursday
occurring in the morning hours - temps will in the single digits to
low teens around midnight, single digits above and below zero at
daybreak, then most locations in the single digits below zero
Thursday afternoon. As temperatures fall and winds remain breezy,
wind chill values will fall to 25 to 35 below zero, likely prompting
the need for a wind chill advisory on Thursday.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 322 AM CST Wed Jan 23 2019

The coldest temperatures are yet to come. January will end with
continued arctic intrusions, with near-record cold temperatures
possible towards the middle of next week.

On the synoptic scale the pattern remains fairly consistent over the
next seven days with longwave ridge off the west coast and a
longwave trough over much of the central and eastern CONUS, which
will allow for two distinct rounds of arctic air impacting the Upper
Great Lakes as air as cold as -40C tracks south from the arctic
circle across northwest Ontario and across northeast Minnesota and
Lake Superior resulting in what will likely be the coldest days of
the winter yet - perhaps the coldest of this season considering we
have just passed the climatologically coldest time of the year.

Late this week a round of colder air builds in from the north with
low/mid level moisture and the persistent north-northwest winds at
low to mid levels leading to a prolonged period of lake effect snow
showers along the south shore. Then this weekend, a potent upper low
and associated arctic air will track south-southeast across
northwest Ontario towards the Upper Great Lakes. While the strongest
broad-scale lift and precip chances will be further to the east,
this upper low will bring 850mb temps of -35C to -40C to northeast
Minnesota, reinforcing the already cold airmass over the region. The
surface high pressure associated with this Arctic air will be over
central Manitoba late Saturday then weaken as it builds eastward
into northwest Ontario on Sunday. To the west, an elongated
mid/upper level shortwave trough will track south across the
Canadian Rockies into the northern Great Plains, producing strong
broad-scale forcing along a warm frontal zone in the Dakotas. This
warm front will then build eastward into the Upper Mississippi River
Valley, being forced to take a southeasterly trajectory around much
of the Northland due to the arctic high over northwest Ontario on
Sunday into Monday. Depending on the trajectory precipitation may
impact all or none of the Northland as the main shortwave trough
axis swings across the Upper Midwest, but chances are likely there
will be at least some light snow on Sunday into Sunday night, though
the best chance for any measurable accumulating will be greatest
across central and southern Minnesota.

A brief break from the worst of the cold early next week before
another upper low and arctic airmass approach from the north, this
time with an origin farther to the west over Manitoba Monday before
moving into the northern Great Plains and Upper Midwest towards mid-
week. While there will be a chance for some light precipitation
associated with this upper low, the primary sensible weather impact
will be the frigid cold temperatures this next round of arctic air
produces, with temperatures as cold or colder than the Arctic
outbreak last weekend.

With the very cold air expected, wind chill advisories or warnings
will likely be needed nearly every night for the rest of the month.

[hawkeye_wx]

 

Thar she blows!  That's even more extreme than last night's 00z run.

 

[beavis1729]

 

Yikes, and it's only Day 7.

Those are sub-486 H5 heights in WI, not thicknesses.  That is insane.

[madwx]

Verbatim the Euro has Fort Dodge Iowa at -44 on Thursday morning.   Which is only 3 degrees away from the all time record low temp for the state of Iowa

[beavis1729]

Taken from the TN sub-forum. The pink area is 48+ degrees below normal. 

[Hoosier]

1 hour ago, beavis1729 said:

 

Yikes, and it's only Day 7.

Those are sub-486 H5 heights in WI, not thicknesses.  That is insane.

Thicknesses are sub 480 dm in the Midwest/Lakes on that run.

[CoachLB]

That's ugly...

[Geoboy645]

1 hour ago, hawkeye_wx said:

 

Thar she blows!  That's even more extreme than last night's 00z run.

 

[beavis1729]

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Chicago IL
220 PM CST Wed Jan 23 2019

...Dangerously Cold Wind Chills Possible Thursday night into
Friday Morning...


ILZ003>006-008-010>012-019-020-240430-
/O.NEW.KLOT.WC.A.0001.190125T0000Z-190125T1800Z/
Winnebago-Boone-McHenry-Lake IL-Ogle-Lee-DeKalb-Kane-La Salle-
Kendall-
Including the cities of Rockford, Belvidere, Woodstock, Waukegan,
Oregon, Dixon, DeKalb, Aurora, Elgin, Ottawa, and Oswego
220 PM CST Wed Jan 23 2019

...WIND CHILL WATCH IN EFFECT FROM THURSDAY EVENING THROUGH
FRIDAY MORNING...

* WHAT...Dangerously cold wind chills possible. Wind chills as
  low as 30 below zero possible.

* WHERE...Portions of north central and northeast Illinois.

* WHEN...From Thursday evening through Friday morning.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...The cold wind chills could cause
  frostbite on exposed skin in as little as 30 minutes.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Wind Chill Watch means there is the potential for a combination
of very cold air and the wind to create dangerously low wind
chill values. Monitor the latest forecasts and warnings for
updates on this situation.

[Stebo]

1 hour ago, Hoosier said:

Thicknesses are sub 480 dm in the Midwest/Lakes on that run.

Lowest I could find was 476dm, in Wisconsin. I hope to god that changes, that is and I quote...

 

4 hours ago, SchaumburgStormer said:

That’s “glacier flattening the land” cold. 

 

[hlcater]

The forecaster who did the DVN long range forecast afternoon was very bullish/borderline geeking out over the prospects for extreme cold... somewhat understandably.

 

Quote

Tuesday through Wednesday: In the wake of this system (and the much
deeper snowpack that will be in place) this will set the stage for
brutally cold arctic airmass to plunge southward into the Midwest.
If the ECMWF is correct this may be historic (record) cold as the
POLAR VORTEX drops into the Great Lakes region. 850 mb temperatures
drop to an incredible -34 to -36c down to northern IL!. The GFS is
not as brutal keeping the vortex up towards James Bay with 850 mb
temps only to -26c. Either way you look at it this will be extreme
cold with record temperatures possible. The grids indicate lows well
below zero early Thursday morning, as low as 20 below in our north.
However, this is heavily weighted on the GFS model, so if the ECMWF
is correct it will be much colder than currently forecast, possibly
to 30 below zero or colder ambient temperature!

 

[Hoosier]

That is certainly some special cold on the 12z Euro.  Even January 2014, February 1996 and January 1994 didn't quite have those kind of 850 mb temps that far south.  January 1985 did, and I'm guessing there's probably almost none or no other occurrences on record.