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  On 1/20/2019 at 2:59 AM, ineedsnow said:

YIKES FOR BDL!!

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Chuck anything that shows a 0 for pellets because there will definitely be a period of sleet before the switch to freezing rain, but the NAM soundings do look pretty icy for BDL after 12z. I wonder if spots south of BDL like the MMK area might be under the gun for the ice jack. Nrn CT and MA are going to "waste" too much QPF on snow and sleet for damaging ice IMO. 

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  On 1/20/2019 at 3:25 AM, DomNH said:

Chuck anything that shows a 0 for pellets because there will definitely be a period of sleet before the switch to freezing rain, but the NAM soundings do look pretty icy for BDL after 12z. I wonder if spots south of BDL like the MMK area might be under the gun for the ice jack. Nrn CT and MA are going to "waste" too much QPF on snow and sleet for damaging ice IMO. 

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Not so sure about that parts of NJ are switching  from snow to sleet and zr quickly.. I think we change over by 5 am or so

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  On 1/20/2019 at 3:29 AM, ineedsnow said:

Not so sure about that parts of NJ are switching  from snow to sleet and zr quickly.. I think we change over by 5 am or so

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GFS has all the snow north of MA by 12z.  If that's correct, you'll have flipped well before 5:00 to something other than snow..

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  On 1/20/2019 at 3:27 AM, ineedsnow said:

HRRR is coming in colder.. only got to hour 14 so far but definitely  colder than the last run... we are definitely  screwed  here

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One problem with it is that it's too cold at the start. It had NYC all snow, but the mix is definitely occurring there and north already.

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  On 1/20/2019 at 12:52 AM, powderfreak said:

1.5" up at 1500ft on the car.  

Not upslope fluff but cold dry powder.  

It is snowing nicely out and if these bigger flakes are what we see, then 1" of QPF will be plenty to get this deep.  

Interesting I've been noticing radar echos moving south and north at the same time.  You can see it here, like narrow bands moving in different directions.   Also if these echos produce this steady snow, I can't wait to see what like 30dbz would do. 

IMG_1971.GIF.289a90ef1de0caf5f6466b89121573b1.GIF

 

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my concern is efficient snows in such cold temps, the fly in the ointment as far as i can tell....hope you are on to something!

 

still -8F

wind has calmed

SN- , not much accumulation the past couple hours, still around 0.5 down

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