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Upstate/Eastern New York


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Looks like the Meso's went back NW!  After last nights breakdown, lol, we are back on track for a very nice event so it seems unless we can get a tick or 2 to the NW right before go time and I really like what LEK said about an earlier closure of the upper lvls and then it'd really be something!

image.thumb.png.625bf7b37f2493fd0e517bb582cedeb4.png

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1 minute ago, Charlee4615 said:

So nam is certainly still having trouble with low placement as seen by the several hundred mile jump of the low south and then back north. The good news is that it looks like a cave if I ever saw one.

Definitely big time and what has been leading the way the whole time, THE FV3, as even the EURO was further South with the SLP until 00Z and I still think it has to make a bit more of an adjustment so we'll see!

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4 minutes ago, CNY-WXFREAK said:

Definitely big time and what has been leading the way the whole time, THE FV3, as even the EURO was further South with the SLP until 00Z and I still think it has to make a bit more of an adjustment so we'll see!

I think we see a pretty widespread 14-20 inches. Depending on how the next 12 hours go,I  could maybe—and I stress maybe—get behind 18-24 for my ithaca/cortland area. I’m not ruling it out yet...as Rgem looks great and Hrdps looks great as well now. With ratios high, my fingers are certainly crossed!

Edit: hell, I know you have to take it with a big grain of salt, but even accuweather has been fluctuating us from a 20% to 25% chance of greater than 24 inches!

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Whoever gets in on that FGEN band and the deform band with little let up in between will get 8+ inches I think. Near the state line I'd worry about missing that FGEN band but they should see higher rates with the main low. We should be okay here in Upstate. Northern PA/Southern NY has to worry though. 

namconus_ref_frzn_neus_28.png

 

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So I have to submit an estimate for a snow pool at 2pm today.   Closest to the tenth of an inch without going over at Albany Airport.   I'd be interested in any thoughts from you guys.   I'm thinking somewhere around 20, but naturally I'm waiting on the 12z runs before pulling the trigger.

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WSW messaging enhancing...

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
913 AM EST Fri Jan 18 2019

NYZ002>005-011-013-014-182215-
/O.CON.KBUF.WS.W.0002.190119T1800Z-190120T2300Z/
Orleans-Monroe-Wayne-Northern Cayuga-Genesee-Livingston-Ontario-
Including the cities of Medina, Rochester, Newark, Fair Haven,
Batavia, Geneseo, and Canandaigua
913 AM EST Fri Jan 18 2019

...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 1 PM SATURDAY TO
6 PM EST SUNDAY...

* WHAT...Heavy snow expected. Total snow accumulations of 10 to
  17 inches expected. Winds gusting as high as 35 mph.

* WHERE...Orleans, Monroe, Wayne, Northern Cayuga, Genesee,
  Livingston, and Ontario counties.

* WHEN...From 1 PM Saturday to 6 PM EST Sunday.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Travel could be very difficult to
  impossible. Areas of blowing snow could significantly reduce
  visibility.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Widespread accumulating snow will create dangerous travel
conditions.
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