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Here are the last 12 hours of metars from CYHM.  I don’t see anything to indicate snowfall rates to support 21 inches. 

CYHM 200100Z 03021G27KT 3/4SM R12/2800V4500FT/N -SN BLSN VV009 M14/M16 A2992 RMK SN8 SLP153
CYHM 200035Z 03018G25KT 3/4SM R12/3500FT/N -SN BLSN VV008 M14/M15 A2992 RMK SN8 SLP152
CYHM 200000Z 04021G26KT 5/8SM R12/5500FT/U -SN BLSN VV006 M13/M14 A2993 RMK SN8 SLP155
CYHM 192300Z 03018G24KT 5/8SM R12/5500FT/N -SN BLSN VV005 M13/M14 A2997 RMK SN8 /S04/ SLP168
CYHM 192250Z 04018KT 5/8SM R12/5000VP6000FT/U -SN BLSN VV006 M13/M14 A2997 RMK SN8 SLP169
CYHM 192200Z 03020KT 1/4SM R12/4500FT/N -SN BLSN VV006 M13/M14 A2999 RMK SN8 SLP174
CYHM 192100Z 03020KT 1/4SM R12/3500FT/N -SN BLSN VV006 M12/M14 A3002 RMK SN8 /S03/ SLP183
CYHM 192046Z 04020G25KT 1/4SM R12/2800FT/N -SN BLSN VV005 M12/M14 A3002 RMK SN8 SLP184
CYHM 192036Z 03021KT 1/8SM R12/3000FT/N SN BLSN VV005 M12/M14 A3003 RMK SN8 SLP187
CYHM 192014Z 03020KT 3/8SM R12/2800FT/N -SN BLSN VV005 M12/M14 A3003 RMK SN8 SLP189
CYHM 192000Z 03019G24KT 3/8SM R12/3500FT/N -SN BLSN VV008 M12/M13 A3004 RMK SN8 /S02/ SLP192
CYHM 191945Z 03019KT 3/8SM R12/3000FT/N -SN BLSN VV007 M12/M13 A3005 RMK SN8 SLP193
CYHM 191900Z 03015KT 3/8SM R12/2800FT/N -SN BLSN OVC005 M11/M12 A3008 RMK SN6SF2 SLP202
CYHM 191853Z 03014G20KT 3/8SM R12/3000FT/N -SN BLSN OVC006 M11/M12 A3009 RMK SN6SF2 SLP205
CYHM 191800Z 06019G25KT 3/4SM R12/4000FT/D -SN BLSN OVC010 M09/M11 A3010 RMK SN6SF2 /S05/ SLP209
CYHM 191732Z 07019G27KT 5/8SM R12/3000V4500FT/U -SN BLSN VV014 M09/M11 A3012 RMK SN8 SLP216
CYHM 191700Z CCA 07015G22KT 1/4SM R12/2400FT/N -SN BLSN VV005 M09/M10 A3014 RMK SN8 /S03/ SLP224
CYHM 191600Z CCA 05021G27KT 5/8SM R12/2600FT/N -SN DRSN VV006 M09/M10 A3017 RMK SN8 /S02/ PRESFR SLP233
CYHM 191548Z 05016G24KT 1/4SM R12/2800FT/N SN VV007 M09/M10 A3018 RMK SN8 SLP236
CYHM 191500Z 04013KT 1/2SM R12/3500FT/N SN VV006 M11/M13 A3020 RMK SN8 SLP243
CYHM 191434Z 04015KT 5/8SM R12/5000FT/U -SN OVC008 M12/M14 A3020 RMK SN6SC2 SLP245
CYHM 191400Z 03016KT 3/4SM R12/P6000FT/D -SN OVC018 M12/M14 A3020 RMK SN6SC2 SLP245

 

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Everybody go to jeremy kappel 945 pm facebook live page he is the rochester meteorologist who got fired from whec 10 news..he has some really great analysis and updates on the storm..his videos are usually always at least 15 minutes and he answers questions us weather ethusiasts may have..Highly recommend tuning in at 945

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2 minutes ago, CNY_WX said:

Here are the last 12 hours of metars from CYHM.  I don’t see anything to indicate snowfall rates to support 21 inches. 

CYHM 200100Z 03021G27KT 3/4SM R12/2800V4500FT/N -SN BLSN VV009 M14/M16 A2992 RMK SN8 SLP153
CYHM 200035Z 03018G25KT 3/4SM R12/3500FT/N -SN BLSN VV008 M14/M15 A2992 RMK SN8 SLP152
CYHM 200000Z 04021G26KT 5/8SM R12/5500FT/U -SN BLSN VV006 M13/M14 A2993 RMK SN8 SLP155
CYHM 192300Z 03018G24KT 5/8SM R12/5500FT/N -SN BLSN VV005 M13/M14 A2997 RMK SN8 /S04/ SLP168
CYHM 192250Z 04018KT 5/8SM R12/5000VP6000FT/U -SN BLSN VV006 M13/M14 A2997 RMK SN8 SLP169
CYHM 192200Z 03020KT 1/4SM R12/4500FT/N -SN BLSN VV006 M13/M14 A2999 RMK SN8 SLP174
CYHM 192100Z 03020KT 1/4SM R12/3500FT/N -SN BLSN VV006 M12/M14 A3002 RMK SN8 /S03/ SLP183
CYHM 192046Z 04020G25KT 1/4SM R12/2800FT/N -SN BLSN VV005 M12/M14 A3002 RMK SN8 SLP184
CYHM 192036Z 03021KT 1/8SM R12/3000FT/N SN BLSN VV005 M12/M14 A3003 RMK SN8 SLP187
CYHM 192014Z 03020KT 3/8SM R12/2800FT/N -SN BLSN VV005 M12/M14 A3003 RMK SN8 SLP189
CYHM 192000Z 03019G24KT 3/8SM R12/3500FT/N -SN BLSN VV008 M12/M13 A3004 RMK SN8 /S02/ SLP192
CYHM 191945Z 03019KT 3/8SM R12/3000FT/N -SN BLSN VV007 M12/M13 A3005 RMK SN8 SLP193
CYHM 191900Z 03015KT 3/8SM R12/2800FT/N -SN BLSN OVC005 M11/M12 A3008 RMK SN6SF2 SLP202
CYHM 191853Z 03014G20KT 3/8SM R12/3000FT/N -SN BLSN OVC006 M11/M12 A3009 RMK SN6SF2 SLP205
CYHM 191800Z 06019G25KT 3/4SM R12/4000FT/D -SN BLSN OVC010 M09/M11 A3010 RMK SN6SF2 /S05/ SLP209
CYHM 191732Z 07019G27KT 5/8SM R12/3000V4500FT/U -SN BLSN VV014 M09/M11 A3012 RMK SN8 SLP216
CYHM 191700Z CCA 07015G22KT 1/4SM R12/2400FT/N -SN BLSN VV005 M09/M10 A3014 RMK SN8 /S03/ SLP224
CYHM 191600Z CCA 05021G27KT 5/8SM R12/2600FT/N -SN DRSN VV006 M09/M10 A3017 RMK SN8 /S02/ PRESFR SLP233
CYHM 191548Z 05016G24KT 1/4SM R12/2800FT/N SN VV007 M09/M10 A3018 RMK SN8 SLP236
CYHM 191500Z 04013KT 1/2SM R12/3500FT/N SN VV006 M11/M13 A3020 RMK SN8 SLP243
CYHM 191434Z 04015KT 5/8SM R12/5000FT/U -SN OVC008 M12/M14 A3020 RMK SN6SC2 SLP245
CYHM 191400Z 03016KT 3/4SM R12/P6000FT/D -SN OVC018 M12/M14 A3020 RMK SN6SC2 SLP245

 

Well, the visibilities were pretty low at times....I'd wager that the band may have approached 2"/hr. at times....I could see 14" or so....but whatever....

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Them first then its our turn!


 Discussion 0032
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0524 PM CST Sat Jan 19 2019

   Areas affected...northern Ohio... much of Pennsylvania... northern
   Maryland... far northeastern West Virginia... far southwestern New
   York

   Concerning...Heavy snow 

   Valid 192324Z - 200230Z

   SUMMARY...Moderate to heavy snowbands continue to overspread the
   region, with widespread 1-2 inch per hour snowfall rates likely.

   DISCUSSION...Regional radar shows moderate to heavy snowbands
   continuing over portions of northern Ohio, and developing/spreading
   into portions of Pennsylvania and northern Maryland. Locations where
   these snowbands have setup are currently experiencing snowfall rates
   of 1-2 inches per hour. 

   These observational trends are expected to continue for the next few
   hours. Strong mid-level frontogenetical forcing is resulting in
   broad vertical ascent over the region. RAP soundings indicate
   moderate vertical motion through the dendritic growth zone, helping
   to enhance snowfall rates. With time, areas of northern Maryland and
   southern Pennsylvania should transition to rain, but could
   experience some brief freezing rain as warm air advection aloft
   outpaces warming at the surface.
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At 7pm I was close to 6" while KBUF was only at 3.4"? I've definitely been under better returns but that seems a little low to me. I just took several measurements in my yard  which is pretty sheltered from wind and got an average otg of 7.4", granted there was an inch or so otg prior to this event starting. I'm at 7.3" for the event using my snowboard cleared every 6 hr. 

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Rice snow continues IMBY.  Measured another 1.5” at 9pm...that’s over a 3 hr period.  Total is 3.5”.  Unimpressive entry level snowfall thus far but even if the meso banding fails (which I doubt) we will end up with 6-10”. Which isn’t bad.  Just trying to figure out a worst case scenario.  Wind has picked up.

KBGM now thinking So. Tier of NY stays more snowy with mix being more limited.  Hopefully that’s right.

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36 minutes ago, mattny88 said:

Everybody go to jeremy kappel 945 pm facebook live page he is the rochester meteorologist who got fired from whec 10 news..he has some really great analysis and updates on the storm..his videos are usually always at least 15 minutes and he answers questions us weather ethusiasts may have..Highly recommend tuning in at 945

I checked out his previous live cast and will view his 2145 broadcast. Not bad. Good guy that got completely boned by the Idiocracy.

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9 minutes ago, Syrmax said:

Rice snow continues IMBY.  Measured another 1.5” at 9pm...that’s over a 3 hr period.  Total is 3.5”.  Unimpressive entry level snowfall thus far but even if the meso banding fails (which I doubt) we will end up with 6-10”. Which isn’t bad.  Just trying to figure out a worst case scenario.  Wind has picked up.

KBGM now thinking So. Tier of NY stays more snowy with mix being more limited.  Hopefully that’s right.

I have been drinking so trust your measurements more than mine. We are close and it's not lake effect. Lmao

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9 minutes ago, WesterlyWx said:

At 7pm I was close to 6" while KBUF was only at 3.4"? I've definitely been under better returns but that seems a little low to me. I just took several measurements in my yard  which is pretty sheltered from wind and got an average otg of 7.4", granted there was an inch or so otg prior to this event starting. I'm at 7.3" for the event using my snowboard cleared every 6 hr. 

Do you know liquid for that 6 inches in rochester

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