vortmax Posted January 20, 2019 Share Posted January 20, 2019 The highest amounts...which could conceivable TOP TWO FEET... will be over Monroe to western Oswego county. These snowfall amounts may not be as important though as the 20 to 30 mph winds that will blow and drift the snow into drifts SEVERAL feet deep. As for the meteorology behind all of this... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted January 20, 2019 Share Posted January 20, 2019 I really could see some 3 feet totals come Monday noon. Monroe to oswego Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kasim Awan Posted January 20, 2019 Share Posted January 20, 2019 Snow here about 2 and a half inches deep, how much would you say storm total? Thnx. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted January 20, 2019 Share Posted January 20, 2019 HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM EST MONDAY... * FREEZING SPRAY...Winds of up to 30 knots and waves greater than 5 feet will create conditions favorable for heavy freezing spray. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A Heavy Freezing Spray Warning means heavy freezing spray is expected to rapidly accumulate on vessels. These conditions can be extremely hazardous to navigation. It is recommended that mariners not trained to operate in these conditions or vessels not properly equipped to do so...remain in port or avoid the warning area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortmax Posted January 20, 2019 Share Posted January 20, 2019 Great description of what's been happening today and what we're in for tonight: Weak warm advection and some lift from a passing 150kt H25 jet has been busy generating light snow across the region all day (after lunch for North Country). As we move from the afternoon into tonight...the lift across the region will deepen and substantially increase as a southerly 25 to 30kt low level jet will impinge upon a tightening H925-70 baroclinic zone. Meanwhile...the passing upper level jet will intensify to more than 180 kts! This will significantly increase the amount of lift just as a swath of moisture from the GOMEX will surge through our region. Snowfall rates of less than a half inch from the afternoon will thus increase to an inch per hour...with amounts possibly reaching two inches per hour from about Orleans county eastward to Wayne County where some lake enhancement can be anticipated. Adding to the jump in snowfall rates will be much more favorable/efficient snow making microphysics. Usually...the dendritic growth zone is 3-5 kft thick...but overnight this zone of snow production will deepen to nearly 10 kft! This will force our somewhat grainy `columns` and `needles` of snow to change in character to dendrites...which accumulate much faster. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted January 20, 2019 Share Posted January 20, 2019 Vort did you read part for Sunday night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortmax Posted January 20, 2019 Share Posted January 20, 2019 Then Sunday: Daytime snowfall should average 2 to 4 inches over the far western counties and as much as 4 to 7 inches from Orleans to Oswego counties in mainly lake driven snow. Into Sunday night: there is a suggestion by some of the guidance packages that the limiting inversion will lift to over 10k ft...so this could encourage the bands of lake snow to be a little more significant. At last, Monday: Lake effect snow will accumulate up to two inches southeast of Lake Ontario. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted January 20, 2019 Share Posted January 20, 2019 Cap of 10k and above usually a sigh for great lake response Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 20, 2019 Share Posted January 20, 2019 For us here in oswego county most of this falls between 10pm and 10am, with about 1" LE .. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted January 20, 2019 Share Posted January 20, 2019 I was gonna say Take ‘me down but KBGM says...take em up! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY_WX Posted January 20, 2019 Share Posted January 20, 2019 1 minute ago, Syrmax said: I was gonna say Take ‘me down but KBGM says...take em up! I’ll take the under on that! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted January 20, 2019 Share Posted January 20, 2019 This hasn't even begun yet! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 20, 2019 Author Share Posted January 20, 2019 Another 1” of qpf would bring me around 20” already 6” on the ground Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted January 20, 2019 Share Posted January 20, 2019 1 minute ago, CNY_WX said: I’ll take the under on that! And I'll take the over, easily! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted January 20, 2019 Share Posted January 20, 2019 Just now, CNY_WX said: I’ll take the under on that! Agree. That’s not happening. I thought it was the upper 1 in 10 probability map but no.... probably someone not getting paid at KBGM just f*cking with us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted January 20, 2019 Share Posted January 20, 2019 With ease too! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted January 20, 2019 Share Posted January 20, 2019 1 minute ago, BuffaloWeather said: Another 1” of qpf would bring me around 20” already 6” on the ground I'm thinking Williamsville gets to 15" by the end of tomorrow...also at 6" right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 20, 2019 Author Share Posted January 20, 2019 Just now, Thinksnow18 said: I'm thinking Williamsville gets to 15" by the end of tomorrow...also at 6" right now. I’d actually go higher than that. Probably 18-22” Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted January 20, 2019 Share Posted January 20, 2019 I had an over/ under of 18” here...21” seems aggressive for “the bar”. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 20, 2019 Share Posted January 20, 2019 This is what it had by 0z, so minus that lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted January 20, 2019 Share Posted January 20, 2019 Kuchera map? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 20, 2019 Share Posted January 20, 2019 Don't exist for 6z/18z.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted January 20, 2019 Share Posted January 20, 2019 Ok. Thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted January 20, 2019 Share Posted January 20, 2019 Mixing all the way to Youngstown Ohio. Farther north Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted January 20, 2019 Share Posted January 20, 2019 8 minutes ago, wolfie09 said: This is what it had by 0z, so minus that lol I had 0.17” melted at 6p v 0.1 on model at 7p. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted January 20, 2019 Share Posted January 20, 2019 1 minute ago, Syrmax said: I had 0.17” melted at 6p v 0.1 on model at 7p. Almost spot on! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted January 20, 2019 Share Posted January 20, 2019 We’ve gone from 13 to 20 degrees in 2 hrs...from 6pm to 8pm. Juicy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattny88 Posted January 20, 2019 Share Posted January 20, 2019 How much you thinking tim wolfie and cnylesfreak for oswego county particularly the city of oswefo where i just got home and am settled in for the night staying up all n8ght to snowblow and look put the window and check the radar maybe eat some food and be om this forum..in full storm mode right now lets goooo im stoked 9 hours ago, TugHillMatt said: Hey, Matt. It's Matt. I don't know how accurate it will be, but that amount is a possibility with lake enhancement involved. You never know with lake involvement... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY_WX Posted January 20, 2019 Share Posted January 20, 2019 20 minutes ago, CNY-WXFREAK said: With ease too! You really think so? I hope you’re right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted January 20, 2019 Share Posted January 20, 2019 21” being reported near Hamilton Ontario. Lake effect Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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