TugHillMatt Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 Tiniest little flakes here on the Tug. Cold, dry air doing its work. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortmax Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 2 minutes ago, tim123 said: Gfs v3 now has low at 986 passing west of Boston. Earlier phase! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 3 minutes ago, CNY_WX said: Snow has started here. You serious, thats weird. Ive been snowing for at least 45 minutes now, interesting! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 1 minute ago, vortmax said: Earlier phase! Definitely, man o man please let this happen Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 Just now, vortmax said: Earlier phase! Looks absolutely perfect for all! Big bump for NW areas like BUF! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DeltaT13 Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 Sounds blizzardy to me. System now gets into the upper 980s. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 According to wunderground it's actually colder towards the lake.. With single digits running from pulaski to sandy creek and upper teens in eastern altmar/orwell.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 Hopefully the coming base will last until Spring... i.e. End of APRIL! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 This is an enormous system no doubt and I'm hoping for a sub 980 SLP over SNE but look at this thing and the amount of moisture associated with it! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 5 minutes ago, WesterlyWx said: Looks absolutely perfect for all! Big bump for NW areas like BUF! This is shaping up to be a good storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 Latest Rap and Hrrr runs look fantastic for Western and Central NY Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Charlee4615 Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 So has this moved too far west and now Ithaca might mix :/ ? Or does ithaca still look to be ok? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 I'm posting this in here because its relevant to our situation in either WNY-CNY but can be even more intense across our area as the system will be strongest as it passes by just to our S&E! Areas affected...Northeast Indiana...northwest Ohio and southwest Michigan Concerning...Heavy snow Valid 191609Z - 191915Z SUMMARY...Moderate to occasionally heavy snow will continue into the afternoon. Snowfall rates of 1 to 1.5 inches per hour are expected. DISCUSSION...A large precipitation shield has developed north of a deepening surface cyclone moving into the southern Ohio Valley. North of the rain/snow line, currently located just south of Marion, Indiana to near Delaware, Ohio, moderate snowfall has developed. A band of enhanced snowfall rates has developed from Rochester, Indiana to near Ann Arbor, MI. The location of this band matches 12Z NAM cross sections which had an area of negative saturated equivalent potential vorticity (EPV) above the low-level frontogenesis forcing. This area of conditional symmetric instability(CSI) is expected to wane by 18Z and then redevelop between 18Z and 21Z across northwest Ohio. Snowfall rates beneath these heavier bands will likely exceed 1 inch per hour with snowfall rates above 1.5 inches per hour possible. Outside of these stronger bands, snowfall rates will be around 0.5 to 1 inch per hour. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 6 minutes ago, Charlee4615 said: So has this moved too far west and now Ithaca might mix :/ ? Or does ithaca still look to be ok? Your good Charles, don't let that ruin the event, cause thats all you'll think about, lol, trust me I know, cause its happens often here! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Revracer800 Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 Very very tiny flakes here in Hannibal also, been coming down for a couple hrs now. And it's flipping cold out app on my phone says it's 10 brrrrr. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Charlee4615 Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 Just now, CNY-WXFREAK said: Your good Charles, don't let that ruin the event, cause thats all you'll think about, lol, I know cause it happen often here! So I’m trying to remain hopeful, rgem, Hrdps, fv3, and as far as I can see on hrrr continues to be a good hit binghampton over. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattny88 Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 wolfie the colder soundings coming from the lakeshore communities of oswego county, does that boast more snow in regards to the snow ratios being higher..i just wory about the grainy small dendrite type flake that doesnt add up...also what do you guys think? the nws will up there totals...weather spotters out in Rochester are already alledgely reporting 3 inches and it wasnt suppose to start this early...its snowing here in oswego but nothing of great intensity...with small flakes..the wind here is more noticeable then inland locations Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortmax Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 5 minutes ago, CNY-WXFREAK said: I'm posting this in here because its relevant to our situation in either WNY-CNY but can be even more intense across our area as the system will be strongest as it passes by just to our S&E! Areas affected...Northeast Indiana...northwest Ohio and southwest Michigan Concerning...Heavy snow Valid 191609Z - 191915Z SUMMARY...Moderate to occasionally heavy snow will continue into the afternoon. Snowfall rates of 1 to 1.5 inches per hour are expected. DISCUSSION...A large precipitation shield has developed north of a deepening surface cyclone moving into the southern Ohio Valley. North of the rain/snow line, currently located just south of Marion, Indiana to near Delaware, Ohio, moderate snowfall has developed. A band of enhanced snowfall rates has developed from Rochester, Indiana to near Ann Arbor, MI. The location of this band matches 12Z NAM cross sections which had an area of negative saturated equivalent potential vorticity (EPV) above the low-level frontogenesis forcing. This area of conditional symmetric instability(CSI) is expected to wane by 18Z and then redevelop between 18Z and 21Z across northwest Ohio. Snowfall rates beneath these heavier bands will likely exceed 1 inch per hour with snowfall rates above 1.5 inches per hour possible. Outside of these stronger bands, snowfall rates will be around 0.5 to 1 inch per hour. CSI! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxNoob Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 2 minutes ago, Charlee4615 said: So I’m trying to remain hopeful, rgem, Hrdps, fv3, and as far as I can see on hrrr continues to be a good hit binghampton over. Really like where we sit for this one Charlee. Mix line far enough southeast on all guidance we won’t mix but we are close enough to get into some nice rates overnight and tomorrow morning. Enjoy the ride! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mississaugasnow Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 5 minutes ago, CNY-WXFREAK said: I'm posting this in here because its relevant to our situation in either WNY-CNY but can be even more intense across our area as the system will be strongest as it passes by just to our S&E! Areas affected...Northeast Indiana...northwest Ohio and southwest Michigan Concerning...Heavy snow Valid 191609Z - 191915Z SUMMARY...Moderate to occasionally heavy snow will continue into the afternoon. Snowfall rates of 1 to 1.5 inches per hour are expected. DISCUSSION...A large precipitation shield has developed north of a deepening surface cyclone moving into the southern Ohio Valley. North of the rain/snow line, currently located just south of Marion, Indiana to near Delaware, Ohio, moderate snowfall has developed. A band of enhanced snowfall rates has developed from Rochester, Indiana to near Ann Arbor, MI. The location of this band matches 12Z NAM cross sections which had an area of negative saturated equivalent potential vorticity (EPV) above the low-level frontogenesis forcing. This area of conditional symmetric instability(CSI) is expected to wane by 18Z and then redevelop between 18Z and 21Z across northwest Ohio. Snowfall rates beneath these heavier bands will likely exceed 1 inch per hour with snowfall rates above 1.5 inches per hour possible. Outside of these stronger bands, snowfall rates will be around 0.5 to 1 inch per hour. The Detroit AFD has also mentioned the system is slightly further north and west of guidance. Should be good for the Buffalo-Niagara crowd Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kasim Awan Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 Virga has quickly reached ground in Glens Falls, rates now 2cm/hr. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattny88 Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 lets talk about the northwest shift and trend in the model within these last few hours...how much does that affect bumping snow totals up..i want your guys thoughts on this conversation..thanks alot guys Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 Just because i can..lol Ukmet was wettest yet for cny .. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Charlee4615 Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 Just now, wolfie09 said: Just because i can..lol Ukmet was wettest yet for cny .. Dang nice Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 2 minutes ago, mattny88 said: lets talk about the northwest shift and trend in the model within these last few hours...how much does that affect bumping snow totals up..i want your guys thoughts on this conversation..thanks alot guys TBH, not much because once you reach 2ft, does it really matter? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 Snow growth seems ideal where I am even with temps below the threshold of 15F, so thats a +, but once it goes below, if it does ,I'd expect to lose growth but not until then and by then the moisture should be well to our East ! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 Thats just how I feel about totals, but it seems much more important to others. A foot storm is noteworthy nevermind a 2+ footer, lol! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gorizer Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 1 hour ago, CNY-WXFREAK said: Sleet or any kind of mixing isn't making it to the Mohawk Valley, no way no how. The furthest it gets would probably be a line from KPOU to KBGM if it even gets that far. We’ll just have to see. KALY is disagreeing too now. I’m telling you, nearly every time they say “just south of here”, it makes it to the Mohawk line. “ .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... As of 940 AM EST...Warnings are out as we are in the calm before the storm. Latest guidance coming in has shifted a bit further north with the mid level warm nose which may result in a bit more sleet and/or freezing rain.” Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 To each their own I suppose, lol, as I can do without constant cover TBH as I am a falling snow guy. I can watch it snow for hours and hours on end, obviously the accumulation aspect of a storm is a huge contributing factor for most, but not for me, but when I snowmobiled, it was important for sure! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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