vortmax Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 Up to 28" according to the point...May be right about Sunday - Monday Tim. Today Snow, mainly after 9am. Areas of blowing snow after 5pm. High near 19. Northeast wind 11 to 15 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. Total daytime snow accumulation of 2 to 4 inches possible. Tonight Snow. The snow could be heavy at times. Areas of blowing snow after 8pm. Low around 12. Windy, with a northeast wind 15 to 20 mph increasing to 21 to 26 mph after midnight. Winds could gust as high as 36 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of 9 to 13 inches possible. Sunday Snow, mainly after 11am. The snow could be heavy at times. Areas of blowing snow. High near 14. Wind chill values as low as -10. Windy, with a north wind 21 to 26 mph, with gusts as high as 36 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of 4 to 8 inches possible. Sunday Night Snow. Areas of blowing snow. Low around 0. Wind chill values as low as -15. Blustery, with a north wind 17 to 20 mph, with gusts as high as 30 mph. Chance of precipitation is 80%. New snow accumulation of 1 to 3 inches possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 11 minutes ago, rochesterdave said: I got NAMMED like an effeminate prisoner on his first night in jail (during a riot). NAM is the Joe Bastardi of weather models. All over the place with extreme mood changes... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 1 minute ago, vortmax said: Up to 28" according to the point...May be right about Sunday - Monday Tim. Today Snow, mainly after 9am. Areas of blowing snow after 5pm. High near 19. Northeast wind 11 to 15 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. Total daytime snow accumulation of 2 to 4 inches possible. Tonight Snow. The snow could be heavy at times. Areas of blowing snow after 8pm. Low around 12. Windy, with a northeast wind 15 to 20 mph increasing to 21 to 26 mph after midnight. Winds could gust as high as 36 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of 9 to 13 inches possible. Sunday Snow, mainly after 11am. The snow could be heavy at times. Areas of blowing snow. High near 14. Wind chill values as low as -10. Windy, with a north wind 21 to 26 mph, with gusts as high as 36 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of 4 to 8 inches possible. Sunday Night Snow. Areas of blowing snow. Low around 0. Wind chill values as low as -15. Blustery, with a north wind 17 to 20 mph, with gusts as high as 30 mph. Chance of precipitation is 80%. New snow accumulation of 1 to 3 inches possible. Vort where are you located? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 This storm is a perfect track for all WNY and CNY. It’s jogged NW with the upper level especially. Mixed with lake enhancement my 13” for Rochester COULD be doubled. I’d certainly put 13@ as near the floor. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 Nice map Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 Sleet or any kind of mixing isn't making it to the Mohawk Valley, no way no how. The furthest it gets would probably be a line from KPOU to KBGM if it even gets that far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 With 12 hours after that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortmax Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 4 minutes ago, Thinksnow18 said: Vort where are you located? Ontario. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kasim Awan Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 The radar suggests that it should be snowing here but it is dry. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 Imagine if this thing were to close off, wowzers for sure! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 I notice now the models throw some more moisture over ontario tomorrow night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 Just now, Kasim Awan said: The radar suggests that it should be snowing here but it is dry. virga, not reaching the ground yet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 Wrap around moisture or a trough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 The radar beam is hitting precip high in the atmosphere but as it falls into much much drier air at the surface it evaporates before reaching the ground. Thats a little better explanation for ya Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 8 minutes ago, tim123 said: I notice now the models throw some more moisture over ontario tomorrow night. And you are gonna measure that portion, right? I’m still doubtful but NWS point and click has me 4-10 from Sunday to Monday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY_WX Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 Still dry here, virga storm overhead. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 Been snowing steadily in Rochester for hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 .75 mile visibility for last 2 hours. It’s gonna be a crush job. It would be a blizzard in a second if we just had winds fcst Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buffalo Bumble Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 Nice steady light snow here all morning. First inch in the books. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DeltaT13 Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 Just took the dog to the vet up in Greece. Almost two new inches on the ground and snowing heavily. The roads are atrocious already because temps in the mid teens are negating any effect from salt while allowing for efficient accumulation. It’s fantastic! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 I think someone roc lake shore to about Fairhaven gets near 3 feet buy Monday morning Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortmax Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 5 minutes ago, DeltaT13 said: Just took the dog to the vet up in Greece. Almost two new inches on the ground and snowing heavily. The roads are atrocious already because temps in the mid teens are negating any effect from salt while allowing for efficient accumulation. It’s fantastic! Yup, this is starting out quite well! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 7 minutes ago, tim123 said: I think someone roc lake shore to about Fairhaven gets near 3 feet buy Monday morning you're like James in SNE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY_WX Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 Latest from WSYR Channel 9: Updated: Jan 19, 2019 10:43 AM EST SYRACUSE (WSYR) - LATEST: As of 8:30 a.m. Saturday...Snow storm tracking a little farther north and bringing light snow in especially for Finger Lakes areas Saturday morning. Growing confidence for close to 2 foot totals for Syracuse and points south and east by Sunday afternoon THE TIMELINE: • Light snow begins Saturday morning for areas west of Syracuse • Onset of steadier snow begins around 2-3 p.m. Saturday • Heavy snow begins 7-9 p.m. Saturday • Heavy snow tapers by noon Sunday • Wind picks before daybreak Sunday and continues into Monday. • Arctic air settles in, dangerously cold wind chills Sunday night and Monday for all SPECIFICS: Snow becomes steady through the afternoon and evening on Saturday, we're thinking about 1-3" of accumulation by 8pm Saturday. The snow intensity picks up Saturday night and continues to fall heavily through Sunday morning. During this period of heavy snow, an additional 10-18" of snow could fall. Snow totals for the majority of CNY will be in the 1-2 foot range by the time this storm pulls off the east coast Sunday night. Areas farthest north, including Watertown will see slightly smaller amounts, closer to 5-10". We're not done with active weather though. To add insult to injury, gusty northwest winds will develop Sunday afternoon and continue Monday. With lots of fresh fluffy snow on the ground, winds gusting 20-30+ mph, will cause the snow to drift and reduce visibility. The wind will also bring dangerously cold wind chills, especially on Monday. Highs Monday are in the single digits but with the wind it'll feel more like 20 to 15 degrees below zero. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 Flake size has increased again about 1/4" an hour rates about 1 1/2" so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 BUF 10:42 am disco, important stuff: As mentioned...the center of the cyclone was found over the Lower Mississippi Valley at 15z. The system will track to the northeast across Kentucky and West Virginia to about the Mason Dixon Line... which is about 25 to 50 miles further north than most guidance packages were suggesting. This subtle shift is being verified by pressure falls over Ohio and West Virginia. If this trend continues...it should lead to slightly stronger winds and possibly more snow. The reason for the shift is an earlier phasing of the two branches of the jet. This is starting to become apparent in WV imagery. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 Just now, rochesterdave said: BUF 10:42 am disco, important stuff: As mentioned...the center of the cyclone was found over the Lower Mississippi Valley at 15z. The system will track to the northeast across Kentucky and West Virginia to about the Mason Dixon Line... which is about 25 to 50 miles further north than most guidance packages were suggesting. This subtle shift is being verified by pressure falls over Ohio and West Virginia. If this trend continues...it should lead to slightly stronger winds and possibly more snow. The reason for the shift is an earlier phasing of the two branches of the jet. This is starting to become apparent in WV imagery. How do I like this 1000 times??? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 2 minutes ago, Thinksnow18 said: Flake size has increased again about 1/4" an hour rates about 1 1/2" so far. Exactly what I have here so far. 1.5" new since 7am. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 Gfs v3 now has low at 986 passing west of Boston. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY_WX Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 Snow has started here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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